Showing posts with label Jon Heyman. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Jon Heyman. Show all posts

Monday, December 27, 2010

Jon Heyman's Latest Silliness


Sometimes it’s hard to criticize other people’s writing. And other times, it’s fish in a barrel. Not to turn all FJM on you, but let’s take a look at Jon Heyman’s piece about 25 bargain free agents that are still out there, because it’s a doozy. We admit that we’re cherry picking a bit and agree that guys like Johnny Damon and Chris Young aren’t horrible ideas for the right price. But as for much of this piece…well, see for yourself with our commentary.


1. Chris Young, SP. He also represents himself in negotiations, and while he's a Princeton man, this is rarely a good idea for maximizing one's deal.


There is nothing as relevant to a pitcher’s potential to help a team as the irrelevant facts of where he went to school and who his agent is.


3. David Eckstein, INF. His mere presence usually means that a team will overachieve. The ultimate scrapper.

Ah, the annual paean to Eckstein.
This one has one of the greatest nuggets ever: merely having him don your uniform means you’re going to overachieve True? Not remotely. We can think of two ways to determine whether a team “overachieved”:

1. Look at their final record versus their Pythagorean record. Ignoring Eckstein’s cup of coffee with Arizona in 2008—where they finished with the same actual record as their Pythagorean record anyway—in Eckstein’s 10 seasons, the delta between actual record and Pythagorean record has been -2, -2, -3, +1, +2, +1, +7, -7, +8, and -1. That’s an average of 0.4 games of overachieving per year. This is clearly attributable to Senor Scraptitude being on your team. This is also written sarcasm.

2.
Looking at their final record versus everyone’s projections in March. This is a little tougher to do because I have better things to do than to look up what Jon Heyman thought the 2004 Angels would do. But let’s note that 40% of Eckstein’s seasons were on losing teams and only 30% of this teams won over 90 games. Where’s the overachievement here?

4. Marcus Thames, DH/1B/OF. He showed enough power to bat fifth against lefties in Joe Girardi's playoff lineups.


When your argument is predicated on the theory that Joe Girardi knows how to manage, it is fundamentally flawed. Ask every Yankee fan.


6. Freddy Garcia, SP. He's been fighting arm questions for years, but the guy is a winner. He isn't a No. 1 anymore and he won't exactly eat up innings, but he can win double-digits at the bottom of someone's rotation.


When was Freddy Garcia ever a #1 starter? The last time he had an ERA+ above 110 was in 2004, when most of the country had no idea who Barack Obama was.


8. Scott Podsednik, OF. And why not? He appears to be undergoing something of a career resurgence.


Podsednik’s OPS+ for the last 7 years: 75, 86, 75, 73, 67, 97, 99. So sure, he’s had a resurgence from utter crap to replacement level.


12. Jason Frasor, RP. Very solid setup man isn't getting the pub -- or the love -- he deserves.


The answer why is conspicuously absent here: Frasor is a Type A free agent. Who wants to give up 2 high draft picks for a middle reliever? We went through this entire exercise with Juan Cruz two years ago when nobody wanted him because of the draft picks they would forfeit. And they were right: he put up a 5.72 ERA in ’09 and was injured last year. Note that it took me under 2 minutes to come up with this answer and data, and unlike Heyman, I don’t do this for a living.


19. Edgar Renteria, SS. He won't approach the $18.5 million, two-year bonanza that he got two years ago, but he's right that the $1 mil the Giants offered seemed a bit light in the wake of his latest World Series heroics.


Yes, one home run should earn you more than a million dollars. By Heyman’s logic, Albert Pujols should have made $50 million last year.


21. Jeff Weaver, RP. He has found a solid niche as an underpaid reliever for his hometown Dodgers team after being an overpaid starter for years.

I actually don’t disagree with this. I’m putting it in to note that if this is one of your top 25 free agent bargains out there, you should have stopped at 20.


* * *


We know it’s a snowy day in New York. But if you’re going to post a piece on a site like SI.com, please do some homework first.

Monday, March 3, 2008

Jon Heyman's Balderdash, Take Two

What the living fuckeroo? From today's column:
I liked where Prince Fielder said he "respected the Brewers scale.'' Fielder was talking about pay scale, but still, I never expected Fielder to say anything nice about a scale. Anyway, I do agree with him that $670,000 is awfully cheap when you consider Ryan Howard was renewed at $900,00 by the Phillies the year before. The Brewers admitted they'd have paid more if Fielder won MVP, as if third in the final voting was his fault (Jimmy Rollins and Matt Holliday finished one and two because their teams made it to October, not because they outplayed Fielder).
For starters, it's wholly unclear how the hell you could argue that Fielder was a better MVP candidate than Albert Pujols, a player at the exact same position who had better numbers for the entire year and is leaps and bounds a better fielder than Sir Prince. Hell, it's arguable that Ryan Howard was better than Fielder. And Pujols' team didn't make the playoffs either, so if you're going to harp on the idea that not making the playoffs is fatal to an MVP candidacy, then aren't they both in the same boat? (Unless we're now grading for how far out you finished, at which point I just fucking give up.)

But let's return to the more fun quote therein: "as if third in the final voting was his fault". Explicitly, Messr. Heyman acknowledges that it's not one person's doing to make the playoffs, and that 24+ other players contribute to the entirety of making the postseason, and that you can only judge a player on what he's done. Hallelujah! Praise the lord! He's seen the light!

Except it's directly contrary to his reasoning for voting for Jimmy Rollins, which includes the nebulous bullshit of "leadership" and reliance on his teammates to beat out Fielder, et.al. This makes zero sense. Jon, just admit what's plain and obvious here: you voted for the best storyline, which is Rollins and the Phillies overtaking the choking Mets. And that's fine for voting for best story. It's utter horseshit for the MVP vote.

And people wonder why our generation hates the mainstream media.

I'm sorry, the last thing I want to do is make this site into a FJM clone. But in the words of Walter Sobchack, my buddies did not die face down in the muck so this baloney can get written.

More on our inane league in the coming days.