Season Preview: The Spam Avengers

As a student of history, lover of thoroughbred racing, and reader of Nate Silver, I am squarely of the opinion that in most walks of life, what has happened in the past matters and is indicative of what will come next.  Over the past decade, our fantasy baseball league has pretty much backed up this assertion.  Scot and Tucker have generally remained extremely competitive in the league with intermittent rebuilding years.  Teddy and I have competed but never won.  Will is consistently inconsistent.  Andy, Jon and Sahil...well, they're nice guys.

Which brings us to Alex, who has won the whole enchilada three times in his ten years in the league.  But his "average" finish is 5th place because he's also had some fallow seasons and has only finished in the money but not won once.  His cycle has been:

1.  Initial success (win in '03, 2nd place in '04);
2.  Non-threatening but not horrible (4th in '05 and '06)
3.  Sucktitude (no better than 8th between '07 and '09)
4.  Second round of success (won in '10 and '11)
5.  Non-threatening but not horrible (5th in '12)

So if history repeats itself we have another middling finish coming or worse a fall into sucktidude, right?  Well, let's take a look.

Infield

There's a lot of talent but no way for TSA to get it all on the field  unless they're more familiar with how MLB schedules its off days than everyone.  Joey Votto is one of the best players in baseball and Freddy Freeman is an excellent young player as well.  But they both play first.  Robby Cano is by far the best 2B in baseball; Ian Kinsler is in the top 6.  But we don't have a middle infield position.  And none of those four players have any extra position eligibility until Jurickson Profar makes the majors and Kinsler shifts...to first base, which helps them not at all.  To add ridiculousness to it all, their best bench players are Chris Davis and Brandon Belt, both 1Bs.  Davis will have some ability to play in the outfield but Belt is going to be even more buried here than he was in San Fran two years ago.

On the left side of the infield, Mike Moose Tacos and Josh Rutledge are interesting young breakout players.  But they're also it for depth at 3B and SS.  (Rutledge also has 2B eligibility, making matters more comical.)  So while this team can sustain an injury to the right side, it's in deep shit if someone on the left side goes down.


Outfield

For all the talent in the infield, this team really needs one of those players to get outfield eligibility because the OF as currently constituted is not going to yield a pennant.  Jacoby Ellsbury either plays a full season well or not at all, meaning that you know you'll get solid production IF he can stay on the field.  After that it's a motley collection of Orioles (Davis, Nick Markakis), guys in pitcher's parks (Michael Morse, Carlos Quentin) and a rookie outfielder who may not be a good hitter (Leonys Martin). 


Starting Pitching

Clayton Kershaw and a bunch of lottery tickets.  Okay, that's not completely fair - Ian Kennedy is a decent #2 if he's healthy, and I actually like Jason Hammel this year.  Beyond that though they're relying on a lot of guys with titanic question marks.  Are Phil Hughes and Matt Garza going to be healthy at all?  Annibal Sanchez in the AL?  Tommy Hanson at all?  Doug Fister may well turn out to be their second-best pitcher; if that's the case, the trophy shelf will be empty this October.

Relief Pitching

TSA seems to have eschewed having actual closers for instead taking guys that are halfway decent at throwing the ball.  They're hedging on Detroit's bullpen situation going to hell quickly with Phil Coke and Al Albequerque there to pick up the spoils, which is a perfectly sound strategy.  And Jose Veras and Tommy Millone are okay hurlers.  But this isn't going to get them near the top in saves and may not get them many vulture wins either.

Outlook

As currently constituted this is not a championship team - there's too much talent that can't play at the same time and the outfield is a mess.  But this is one of the best owners in the league and he's undoubtedly aware that he needs to make a deal for a starter and an outfielder.  Freeman, Cano and Kinsler all are excellent chips for a trade.  If he can cash one of them in to fill a hole, this team can contend for money.

Season Preview: The Spam Avengers

With apologies to Quentin Tarantino and David Mamet, our favorite screenwriter currently at work is Scarsdale native Aaron Sorkin.  In addition to his fine television work--The West Wing needs no introduction, and there were elements of Sports Night and Studio 60 I liked--he's batted 6-for-6 on movie screenplays.  A Few Good Men is a pop culture icon, The American President is a criminally underrated movie and possibly his best piece of writing, and The Social Network was deservedly award winning.  ("You don't have to study."  "Why not?"  "Because you go to B.U.")  Even Charlie Wilson's War and Moneyball, while not perfect, were good films.


And yet, my favorite Sorkin movie remains Malice.   It has an absolutely fabulous cast: 4 Oscar winners (Nicole Kidman, Gweneth Paltrow, Anne Bancroft and George C. Scott, though you have to be on the lookout for the last two); Alec Baldwin at his absolute smarmiest; Bill Pullman in his most meaningful work other than Spaceballs, and appearances from two of my favorite actors, Tobin Bell and Peter Eyebrows.  It has a convoluted plot that, while absurd, is riveting.  The dialogue is as snappy as you'd expect from a Sorkin picture.  And it's a fabulous entertainment, if not a Great Film.  Call it a guilty pleasure if you'd like--I plead guilty.

So for my final preview, let's look at the 2-time defending champions through prism of vaguely applicable quotes from Malice.  We begin.

Infield

"Scotch.  Bring a bottle of scotch."

This infield is 3/5 of the way to greatness with MVP candidates Robinson Cano, Carlos Santana and Joey Votto on the roster.  I particularly like Santana as a stud this year; the Indians have said they're going to use him at first base and DH to increase his at bats, so getting 150 games out of a breakout candidate on top of two guys who are among the top 3 of at their positions is a boon.

These guys are going to have to be fabulous, however, because the rest of the infield is clearly a work in progress.  Mike Moose Tacos is a promising young player who showed painfully little last year, and can't be seen on the same tier as the Hosmer/Lawrie/Trout level of young players.  He could break out but there's an even better chance he spends part of the year in AAA.  Erick Aybar is a great defensive player, who will steal 25-35 bases for this team, and contribute nothing else of value.  An addition is going to be necessary if this team wants to threepeat, because the only help off the bench is the completely pedestrian Martin Prado, he of the career net -4 steals.

Outfield

"Bad things happen to good people all the time, Andy.  Sometimes for no reason at all."

This was the team's weakest area last year, but the rest of the roster was so strong that it almost didn't matter.  Unfortunately, it may matter this year, what with the team hemorrahging some keepers.  Jacoby Ellsbury is an obvious stud but also an obvious regression candidate.  I love Cameron Maybin as a breakout candidate this year, but query what beyond steals he's going to provide in a fairly punchless Padres lineup in a cavernous ballpark.  After that, it's spin the wheel of replaceable outfielders--Carlos Quentin has the upside to give the team some useful production, while the less this team plays Alexis Rios, Melky Cabrera and Nick the Greek, the better.

The real saving grace for this team's hitting is that they're absolutely stacked with runners, as they have 4 guys who could steal 40 bases.  So there are some good trade chits here and the owner knows how to play the market with the best of them in this league.  It would not surprise me if this was a team active early and often to deal steals for power.

Starting Pitching

"Speak of the devil!" "And the devil shall appear."

Cliff Lee is gone, but David Price and Clayton Kershaw remain, giving the team two bonafide Cy Young candidates.  What's interesting is that this team has eschewed the method of stacking up on lottery ticket pitchers for the next tier and instead gone with three pretty consistent bets: Matt Garza is what he is (very solid); Hiroki Kuroda is switching leagues but is going to actually get some run support for the first time, and Jon Niese profiles to be the next Jon Garland.  (I am completely ignoring Erik Bedard from this analysis because he's never healthy.)  This doesn't seems as strong or deep as some of the other rotations we've covered, but perhaps we're biased from remembering last year's pitching bonanza on this squad.

Relief Pitching

"I'm gonna take out your lungs with a f--king ice cream scoop.  Do you understand me?"

Mariano Rivera and Kyle Farnsworth give the team two closers, and the likes of Jesse Crain and Grant Balfour give them some backup options if their teams' initial closers collapse.  This won't be a saves haven, but it should add up to a middle of the pack finish in saves.

Outlook

"You ask me if I have a God complex.  Let me tell you something: I AM God."

The best quote of the movie from the highlight of the movie--which was used by John Lee Malvo nine years ago--goes right to the heart of a team that's won two straight years and has a third title under his belt.  It's difficult to maintain dominance under the league format for more than two years because the keeper rules force you to lose players.  And the fact that this team dealt off 2012 picks for last year's title made reloading a little more difficult.  Still, while this team doesn't have the depth it did last year, it has six players who stand to contend for year-end awards, the greatest closer of all time, and an owner who has done it three times before.  Not the favorite, but definitely a contender.

Season Preview: The Spam Avengers

Next up in my somewhat rushed charge through my half of the season previews is last year’s champion, The Spam Avengers. This team found itself in an unusual position following the season, in that it had too many single-slot guys it wanted to keep. It’s supposed to be pretty well impossible to have that particular problem as the defending champion in a keeper league, so at first glance you’d have to assume that TSA are the favorites heading into this year as well.

League history backs up that first impression. Here are the year-after finishes for the previous winners of the league: 2, 2, 3, 3, 2, 2, 1, 5. Only one team has failed to hit the board the year after a win, and that was last year’s version of the Torkies, who were coming off two straight wins and finally had to cut loose a bunch of high-slot guys from its dynastic squad. As noted above, that’s a very different situation from the one facing TSA heading into the offseason. So pretty much regardless of what we say below, the numbers say to pick TSA to hit the board this year.

Infield

The IF is anchored by two guys who each managed to complete the rare Double Leap last season: Robbie Cano and Joey Votto. Three years ago, Cano had an OBP of .305 and Votto was literally insane. Two years ago it seemed like both guys made the Leap: Cano added 11 additional HRs and 50 points of OBP, while Votto established himself as an everyday player. But then they both Leaped again last year: Cano added 25 or so RBI and yet another 30 points of OBP, while Votto went figuratively insane and was the non-Pujols division MVP. At this point, it seems like there are no more leaps left for these guys. But no more are really needed—even with a little regression, both guys would be near the top of the heap at their positions.

Ryan Zimmerman gives the team another guy whose performance has improved over the past few years, and gives good production at what has become a shallow position. To the extent there are question marks, they come at the other IF slots. Carlos Santana is coming in with Matt Wieter-level hype. TSA will have to hope that he doesn’t also provide Wieter-level production. At SS, Jimmy Rollins is one of the few guys on the roster who has been heading in the wrong direction over the past few years—one more anti-leap and he’ll be down to fantasy replacement level. But even these question marks can’t dampen the enthusiasm over a very strong squad.

Outfield

Here’s a fun question: what exactly is this team’s starting OF? Based on how things are currently arranged, it looks like three-category accumulators Jacoby Ellsbury, Drew Stubbs, and Nick Swisher are the chosen three. But Carlos Quentin, Jason Bay, and Manny Ramirez are also on hand, and you could see a future in which those three guys are the starters, at least while all three are healthy. Assuming good management and good luck on daily swaps, this group could be great.

Starting Pitching

Top heavy as a Barbie doll. It’s tough to argue with Cliff Lee, Clay Kershaw, and David Price up front. But there’s not much behind those three in terms of depth. Brett Myers had a quiet bounce-back season last year, but has an injury history and plays for a lousy team in a lousy park. Jorge de la Rosa was also dinged up last year, though his peripherals bode well for this season if he can stay healthy. Scott Baker is his own team’s #5 starter, so he’ll miss some starts, especially early on in the season when there are more off days.

And that’s it. There are 5.5 SPs on hand, with no room for additional flyers because of the logjam of outfielders described above. The roster imbalance might resolve itself as the year goes on, but for right now there’s not much margin for error down here.

Bullpen

Carlos Marmol aids the team by providing saves plus rate stats that won’t pull down the team average. Leo Nunez and Francisco Cordero are more accumulators, and neither is a lock to end the season as closer, given Florida’s budget woes and the looming presence of Aroldis Chapman in Cincy. If the back-end starters come through, the team can carry Nunez and Cordero’s rate stats; if not, the team might take a little step back from its insane ERA and WHIP performance from last year.

Outlook

This will not really come as a shock, but these guys are pretty good. That said, we do think the pitching staff as currently constituted is a little weaker than we had assumed on first glance—not weak, mind you, but maybe not the rate stat monster it was last season. Still, both the numbers and the walkthrough show this team is one of the favorites for this season.

Season Preview: The Spam Avengers

I end my portion of the season preview deathmarch by taking a look at The Span Avengers, a franchise that has thoughtfully retained the same name for the past several years. This enables me to remember who in fact owns the team, which, given my increasingly advanced age and BAC, is a boon.

TSA is a little tough to preview with our usual format, because the team he’s running out on Opening Day bears little resemblance to the one that will be out there for most of the season (or, at least so he hopes). So even though we’ve ignored the bench and DL for most of the previews, indulge us in a slightly deeper look here.

Infield

The team has two healthy anchors at present. One is C Victor Martinez, who has been penciled into the #3 slot on a good Boston team and should be set for a big year as a result. The other is 3B Ryan Zimmerman, who is actually a better player than VMart, but whose fantasy value is limited by the fact that most of his teammates should be utility guys for the Nippon Ham Fighters instead of starters in the bigs.

There’s more uncertainty in the MI. The Yankees appear to have installed Robinson Canoe in the #5 slot, meaning he should see an RBI spike. But Cano is also traditionally very BA-dependent, meaning he’s always a threat to put up another of his patented .240/.280/.500 first halves). At SS, Jimmy Rollins is officially in Who The Eff Knows territory.

Finally, the owner, in a turn of phrase that demonstrates why people pay him money to write, described his 1B platoon of Joey Votto and Lance Berkman as his “loony/brokedown combo.” I decline to attempt to improve on that. All in all, there’s a lot of upside here, but more risk than you usually see concentrated into one unit.

Outfield

Can’t argue with a Sizemore/Markakis top two. There’s currently a scramble for the last slot among SB-only man Julio Borbon and youngsters Travis Snider and Lastings Milledge, but with 3 guys on hand for 1 slot, the team should be OK. Much more stability here.

Rotation

A little tough to tell at the moment, with Cliff Lee and Erik Bedard hurt. On hand now is erstwhile stud and current solid citizen Roy Oswalt, ST question mark Clay Kershaw, and the post-surgical recovery 2005 All-Star team (Tim Hudson and Ben Sheets). Drop a healthy Cliff Lee in here and everything slots into place; until then the team looks like it’s trying to spin one too many fragile plates.

Bullpen

As of now, there’s only 1 reliable guy (Jose Valverde) and one human heart attack (Carlos Marmol) healthy. But as with the rotation, this group would look better with its injured leader (Huston Street) on hand.

Outlook

It is a little worrying to see so many high-profile guys on the DL to start the season. That said, as best we know right now, none of the injuries (bar Bedard) is serious, and it’s not like there’s an extra penalty for missing games in April instead of August. Assuming that this team is just getting its injuries out of the way early, they should contend for the board once everybody is back on hand. But if the injuries cause them to start in the hole, they might be forced to sell rather than risk getting caught all-in (or getting “Angeloed”, as it were). No team has a higher beta this year; we’ll all have to see together how it plays out.

Season Preview: The Spam Avengers

Up next for Preview Madness Monday is the 2003 champion Spam Avengers, who enter this season having lost from their infield Jose Reyes, Aramis Ramirez and Justin Morneau. Reconstruction was in order for this season...what did the draft and our first trade of the season yield?

Infield

It might be necessary to call on the services of Joel Osteen or another person used to working miracles and reversals of fortune, because the Spammers are banking on a their infielders to pretend that the year 2008 never existed. Take...oh, Robinson Cano for example. Two years ago he was heralded as the rising stud 2B, and has since fallen flat on his face. Victor Martinez hasn't quite had the same fate befall him, but he's been passed pretty quickly by 4-6 other guys in the elite ranks of catchers. And Todd Helton and a re-drafted Aramis Ramirez are, well, old. There's production potential here, but also a pretty high risk of absolute disasters breaking out.

Outfield

The recently announced Drew/Upton--Milledge/Votto swap kicks in here, as Lastings Milledge and Joey Votto join the mix of Nick Markakis, a bonafide stud, and a bunch of other odd ducks. It's not that Ichiro! can't perform, it's that he's about 40 years old and his value comes from speed, a young man's game. Nate McLouth redefines 'fluke' as we know it, and forecasters love him to decline. And Delmon Young may just show up and kick the crap out of all these guys for no reason. So while losing Upton does sting, adding Votto as the DH helps (it sure as shit beats dragging out Paul Konerko's corpse for another year), while Milledge is the kind of high upside guy this team needs to compete.

Starters

When you return a Cy Young winner, generally you should be excited. Sadly, the winner last year was Cliff Lee, who's a perfectly fine pitcher and a nice guy, but doesn't radiate stud the way someone like CC Sabathia does. After that comes a guy who's a bulldog (Oswalt), a guy who throws a lot of pitchers and few innings (Dice-K), a Princeton alum (Chris Young), a potential stud (Clayton Kershaw) and your usual collection of the back of the rotation silliness (Ian Snell, Wandy Rodriguez, and Tim Hudson, proof that Alex has a sense of humor). In other words, it looks like your normal fantasy pitching staff--neither a great strength, nor a great weakness.

Relievers

This is the oddest collection of bullpen guys in our league this year, and possibly ever. Let's see what we have:

1. The best reliever on the Cubs...who isn't their closer (Carlos Marmol).
2. The guy who should be the Mariners' 2nd or 3rd starter, but is their closer (Brandon Morrow).
3. Colorado's closer, which qualifies you for hazard pay (Huston Street).
4. Oakland's putative closer until he broke (Joey Devine).
5. Cleveland's version of Jesse Crain (Anthony Reyes).

I am unable to comprehend this bullpen at all. These guys could fall anywhere from shitty to incredible. I lean shitty.

Prognosis

I was a lot more optimistic about this team before I started writing this preview, but a closer look reveals that it's a good-not-great roster with a lot of potential pratfalls. The owner's one of our best, and he'll add well to the roster if they're in contention come July 4th, but there's a pretty serious question of whether they'll be there or in the second division.

Season Preview: The Spam Avengers

Five days till Opening Day, i.e., when the Mets exact revenge and kick the ever-living shit out of the Cardinals. Eat it, Elders. Who's next? Ah yes, our token Yankee fan, The Spam Avengers!

Team History: The Spam Avengers joined us in the 2nd year of the league, taking the place of somebody that we've totally lost track of (Val? Barto? Random dude from St. Louis?), and proceeded to draw laughter from the league for taking Jason Giambi over Barry Bonds in the expansion draft. The joke was quickly on the rest of the league when he overcame a huge early season start by your humble narrator to take the league in his first year. Since then, we've had no finishes worse than 4th by this squad, and even those 4th place finishes have been by infintessimally small percentages. It's a story when this team doesn't contend. Also notable is that they've now had the same team name for 4 straight seasons, a mark only matched by Evil Empire. (I could be wrong, but I believe the Torkies were something even more asinine back then.)

Infield: Mike Piazza, Justin Morneau, Tad Iguchi, Jose Reyes, Aramis Ramirez. At first blush my shoulders shrugged, but this is a very VERY well constructed infield on further examination. Reyes is an obvious stud, and even if he regresses in the power categories, he's still good for 100 R's and 50 SB's. I love Piazza as a candidate to hit 30 dingers this year, which should offset the inevitable Morneau regression. Add the fact that Aramis really belongs on the top level of players and never gets the credit he deserves, and we're staring at a very very potent IF, boys and girls.

Outfield/DH: Jermaine Dye, Barry Bonds, Ichiro!, Jason Giambi. If you go by the assumption that Dye & Giambi are past their prior injuries, and will only be slowed by aches & pains, then this is nothing shy of excellent. And well rounded--Ichiro! provides the necessary steals, while Bonds bops. And they all provide a solid OBP by hook or by crook. Very good, if not stellar.

Bench: Mike Cameron, Morgan Ensberg, Nick Markakis, Ray Durham. We've got three candidates I like to have a bounceback/breakout year in Cameron, Markakis & Ensberg, each of which is a smart addition to the bench. Having a careful eye on the OF/DH situation will make this work even better, as Bonds is probably only playing ~120 games, so watching lineups like a hawk and spotting Cameron/Markakis correctly should pay off. Durham had a monster year in 2006 that I think he's unlikely to repeat, but I'm nit-picking, he's probably a better starting 2B than 1/3 of the league is sporting.

Starting Pitching: Scott Kazimir, Erik Bedard, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Scott Olsen, The Big Eunuch, (gulp) Bartolo Colon, (double gulp) Mark Prior. The big names on this squad are obviously the Eunuch, who is who he is at this point, and Dice-K. Yet, I can't help but think that Bedard is actually the star of this rotation, which indicates its depth. There's a pissload of K's to ensue from these guys. My reservations (besides counting on anything from Prior & Colon): (i) there's a bunch of guys here on shitty team like the D-Rays, Marlins & O's, who aren't going to chalk up a lotta wins, (ii) there's a lotta guys in the AL, which won't help the rate stats, and (iii) there are a bunch of guys here we're crossing fingers over. This could finish like a Peter Gammons column: if Dice K adjusts well, and if Johnson regains his confidence, and if Kazimir stays healthy, and if Olsen avoids the sophmore jinx.....

Relief Pitching: Trevor Hoffman, Francisco Cordero, Dan Wheeler, Mike Capps. By contrast to their IF, this is a group I like less after closer examination. Yeah, Hoffman is Hoffman, but he's about 3 sliders from getting forked in the back. Cordero's ok...but I can't shake the feeling he's about to revert to TX form, which sucked. Dan Wheeler's a pitcher without an opportunity in a tater-tastic park. Which leaves one question: who the fuck is Mike Capps?

Breakout Candidate: I may be a year early on this one, but I think Markakis is gonna be a star, and this is a great spot for him to flourish, what with OF issues and some big names in their walk year. If he does hit the ground running this year, we're looking at a tough squad.

On the Wrong Side of the Hill: Well, I've already mentioned my questions about Durham & Hoffman...and we know that Johnson's kinda old....I dunno, would Mike Cameron even count? Pass.

X-Factor: This team has a triuumverate of X-Factors. Bonds, Prior & Colon have a range of expectations that you can't match anywhere else, and frankly, there isn't an outcome that would shock us, besides them all having clean healthy and scandal-free seasons. Or Colon checking in at under 275.

Verdict: It's interesting, I thought this was the 2nd best team after draft day, but now that we've done these previews, I'm less convinced. This isn't to say that the team stinks and that they won't improve, there are a LOT of tradeable parts here (Markakis, Olsen, etc.) and the holes aren't big. This is most certainly an upper level team, and I'd be shocked for them to be selling instead of buying on July 1. But a lock for the top? Not quite.