Transactions Analysis: The Mic Drop

Yes lads it's time.  After 18 years, 50,000 transactions, and 400 Ryan Cum Dempster jokes, the Young Boys' Wankdorf league has called it quits.  Which means there's only one last bit of housekeeping - a final TA!

At the risk of being sappy, Teddy and I started writing these on a whim in the 3rd season in the league's "recent messages" column, and at some point, one of us had the hair-brained idea to start a "site" with the columns, rather than using the message board.  We've since then populated this site with horse racing previews, World Cup analysis, and dissertations on the Heisman Trophy, but to us, this site has first and foremost been a repository for the TAs.  So let's give it the proper send off.  (El Angelo)

Some historical context might prove useful. The first real TA published on the blog--which, as Ang notes, happened something like 3-4 years into the TA era--contained the following entry:

Nigerian Gentlemen

Signed: Oliver Pérez (NYM - SP), Kenny Lofton (Tex - OF), Moisés Alou (NYM - OF), Jim Edmonds (StL - OF), Jon Lester (Bos - SP), Aubrey Huff (Bal - 3B,OF)

Waived:  Lester, Joel Piñeiro (Bos - SP,RP)

Hmm. So the Sese Sekos added (at least temporarily) two good, if flawed, young arms, presumably in an attempt to compete down the road. They then turned around and added FOUR past-their-prime outfielders, in what looks like a win-now strategy. Obviously, it's a touch early to completely abandon this season (unless you're Angelo, in which case you're already preparing your draft list for 2009), but the mixed signals are odd. (Teddy)

Well, they waived Cancer Boy Lester, so there's really just adding one arm, and that's the volatile Oliver! Perez. I've seen dumber ideas. Like....signing 3 guys who are well fit for a HACKING MASS squad and Jim Edmonds' corpse. Vomit. (Angelo)

...

All of the following is true: Moises Alou is now the general manager of the Dominican Winter League. Aubrey Huff is getting in Twitter fights with Seth McClung. Kenny Lofton is the CEO of Filmpool, Inc., which just produced an MMA movie starring the guy from Starship Troopers. Jim Edmonds has appeared on the Real Housewives of Orange County. None of Twitter, Filmpool Inc, or the Real Housewives existed when the original post was made.

So, yeah. We're talking a borderline actual geologic era here. (Teddy)

#20.  Val (1 season, 0 wins, 0 cashes, 1 DAFL)

Val's only season got off to a rip-roaring start when his first two draft picks were Nomar Garciaparra and Bret Boone, hot off the latter's Brady Anderson 1991 impersonation.  Can't fathom why Val lost.  (El Angelo)

The Nomar pick was understandable because Val's father's name is Onitnelav (he's Moldovan). (Teddy)

#18T. Vihal (1 season, 0 wins, 0 cashes, 0 DAFL)
#18T. Other Scot (ibid)

I remember absolutely nothing about either of these guys other than that they participated remotely in the first draft at Andy's apartment, and I was dealing with them online.  I think they were Elders' friends?  Either way, they were so unmemorable they go below our other one-and-done owner. (El Angelo)

I want to tread lightly here because we're old enough that one or both of these guys could plausibly be dead by now. Thoughts and prayers(?). (Teddy)

#17.  Bartolacci (1 season, 0 wins, 0 cashes, 0 DAFL)

Two words for everyone who was in the league the first year: Shane Reynolds. (El Angelo)

Dave's team ultimately met the same fate as his Twitter account: abandoned for a decade and then hacked by the Russians. (Teddy)

#16.  M*ke (2 seasons, 0 wins, 0 cashes, 0 DAFL, 1 Quit)

The guy who refused to give his team an actual name, and quit because we twice vetoed a trade where he dealt away all of his good players for - and this is serious - an injured Francisco Liriano, an uninjured Armando Benitez, Freddie Sanchez, JD Drew, and something called Gary Glover.  I remember exchanging about 400 emails around this trade brouhaha, including one where Will rejected the trade from China, and another where Sahil told someone to go get their shinebox.  (El Angelo)

My email reflects that shortly thereafter, Gary Glover was dropped for Luis Vizcaino. Then he got busted for child sexual assault. Things may have turned around, though, because his song "Rock and Roll Part 2" is featured in the new Joker movie.

#15.  Sahil (18 seasons, 0 wins, 0 cashes, 4 DAFL)

There is something truly glorious about Ironhead's 18-year run of futility, to the point where we're ranking him below people who were in the league for less than a full presidential administration.  I'll give the man this: he had the best team names, and I appreciated his desire to stick with the ee cummings typeface convention.  My personal favorites were "i am esix snead" and "bonderman's grundle," though I have no idea what generated the latter name.  (El Angelo)

A commonly voiced criticism of statistical analysis holds that numbers can be used to prove almost anything. There is merit to that criticism. For example, coming into this year Sahil's average place of finish over his time in the league was 8.9. That statistic implies that in last year's 8-team league, Sahil should have finished 0.9 places behind the last-place finisher. This, of course, did not happen. He instead finished 8th and last, thereby slightly *improving* his historical average place of finish to 8.8.

"bonderman's grundle" slaps, though. (Teddy)

#T13.  Matty (3 seasons, 0 wins, 0 cashes, 0 DAFL)
#T13.  Ben (3 seasons, 0 wins, 0 cashes, 0 DAFL)

Matt was an initial owner who bowed out after 3 years (and also my fairly useless brother).  Ben came into about a decade after it started, and also only lasted 3 years.  Both guys were of relatively good cheer, always willing to talk trade, and spectacular at busting Andy's balls.  The last skill is not one to under-appreciate, as we learned with, oh I don't know who...let's just call him, *ike.   (El Angelo)

This one caused some controversy in the GRBG's headquarters (currently located beneath the steam table at the Gowanus Whole Foods), as I vociferously argued that Ben's Mose Schrute beard should put him over the top. (Teddy)

#12.  Darrin (4 seasons solo, 0 wins, 0 cashes, 0 DAFL)

I can't remember if Darrin was in from Year 1 or Year 2, but he also was always willing to talk trade and drink beer.  He's more memorable for bringing in a co-owner who, unlike many of the other names on this list, actually knew what he was doing, and made the league tough for stiffs like me.  Solid on his own; tough when he was a co-owner.  (El Angelo)

The increasing competency of the league over time remains a vexation. Get dumber, people. (Teddy)

#11.  Jon (17 seasons, 0 wins, 1 cash, 2 DAFL)

In three separate years, Jon and I executed draft-day trades where I traded down and still got the player I wanted plus something extra.  Mind you, in none of those years did either of us finish in the money.  I think Jon's best season was about a decade ago when he won the Deathship league.  (El Angelo)

I'll always remember Jon for trading me Troy Tulowitski eleven days prior to Tulo's first major knee injury. I still have a printed-out copy of the espnzone.lycos.com story announcing the injury on the floor of my bird's cage. The bird died in 2012, so I doubt it minds. (Teddy)

#10.  Corey (14 seasons, 0 wins, 1 cash, 2 DAFL)

Pips Jon because he finished in 2nd once, while Jon never topped 3rd.  Really, the best part about this league calling it quits was getting rid of any emails with wormcheesemousebird.  (El Angelo)

You know, we're almost done with this finale post and we haven't really done anything yet to pass along our accumulated wisdom to the next generation of people who will undoubtedly use the Blogger platform to chronicle their fantasy teams. Let's correct that by dropping three nuggets of wisdom:

1. The word "Neshek" is funny; use it relentlessly.
2. Never get aboard an aircraft piloted by a New York Yankee
3. Once your league owners start having kids, MAINTAIN AN UP-TO-DATE SPREADSHEET OF THOSE KIDS' NAMES. I cannot emphasize this last point too strongly. (Teddy)

#9.  Andy (18 seasons, 0 wins 2 cashes, 2 DAFL)

As an initial point, I want to say that Andy was a superb commish for nearly two decades.  This wasn't the most contentious league, but several of us, myself included, are pains in the ass, and Sahil is Sahil.  I mean, this league was started by a bunch of law school students, and then voluntarily added multiple Duke alums and a guy working for George W. Bush.  Prickishness was a given.  But Andy's patience and fairness were a testament to his character.

In terms of being an owner...well, Andy's most consequential move was dealing a prospect named Mike Trout and a future first rounder to Scot in July 2011 as part of an ill-fated pennant drive.  Andy finished in 8th - and by points, closer to last than 5th - and Scot used Trout plus the pick (which became Zack Greinke) to win 4 of the next 5 titles.  Woof.  (El Angelo)

Seconded. This was a hell of a lot of effort for no reward other than dealing with a rotating cast of snarkmonsters. I've been meaning to tell Andy that for a long time, but I'm still waiting for him to sober up from that poker game in 2002 where he locked himself in the bathroom. (Teddy)

#8.  Angelo (17 seasons, 0.5 wins, 4.5 cashes, 4 DAFL)

With the passage of time, I completely forgot about my mid-late 2000s version of The Process, where I basically sat out two years with the idea of accumulating draft picks, only to blow them on baseball's versions of Jahlil Okafor.  My results in this league were essentially a sine curve: in the money the first two years, jack shit after the benefits of a good initial draft wore off, a little bump of success about 8 years in, followed by more jack shit, then an out-of-nowhere win with co-owner Wilfredo.  Viva Stable Geniuses!  (El Angelo)

The relentless avoidance of mediocricy was impressive. Although, in retrospect, it's fair to question the wisdom of tanking for draft picks in a league in which the 144 top players may not reach the draft. Thanks also for blowing what I know to be multiple days of your one and only life on this extremely odd thing we created. (Teddy)  

#7.  Will (17 seasons, 0.5 wins, 3.5 cashes, 2 DAFL)

My partner goes above me because (a) he rode the hell out of our team in September last year to get us the W, and (b) he sucked less frequently than me.  The genesis of our 2018 team was forged at Tucker's wedding, when Will and I - for reasons unclear - described the TA column to a dozen extremely confused, drunk, and sunburned WASPs.  My other favorite contribution Will made to the league was repeatedly making trade demands and threatening to put you on the No Fly List if you didn't accept.  I like to think that Sahil still gets a full cavity search every time he's at BWI.  (El Angelo)

Will's other claim to fame was proving completely impervious to predictions made in the column. This included predictions by Ang and I, as well as polls of the league as a whole. Although it makes sense that our own deplorable would prove unmeasurable by polls. (Teddy)  

#6.  Jake (12 seasons, 1 win, 5 cashes, 0 DAFL)

Never forget: in the league's first year, 9 owners finished behind 2 guys who spent 5 weeks on the road with no internet access, and another guy with a debilitating medical issue.  Man, we really should have convinced Val to stay in the league.  (El Angelo)

I learned I had climbed from 8th to 3d over those five weeks by using a public internet kiosk in the food court of the Stardust. Almost none of those nouns still exist. (Teddy)

#5.  Teddy (18 seasons, 1 win, 6 cashes, 0 DAFL)

I actually thought my co-author had more cashes than this - he never really punted in a given year, and usually drafted well in the middle rounds.  A review of the old standings revealed that he had four seasons where he accumulated 91 - 96.5 points, and won in none of those years.  It wasn't until I took a year off that the competition lightened enough for him to be able to hoist the trophy.  (El Angelo)

My strength was making getting the best out of the roster I drafted--in other words, as a fantasy coach. But like so many other coaches who also aspire to GM, I leave a legacy as a genuinely questionable drafter. I should have just thrown on autodraft every year and then figured out my platoons from there. (Teddy)


#4.  Andrew/Darrindrew (14 seasons, 2 wins, 7 cashes, 0 DAFL)

The top 4 owners were truly in an echelon above the rest - after the inaugural season, there wasn't a year where at least one of them didn't finish in the money, they took two of the three money slots in 12 of those 17 years, and swept the money 4 times.  Andrew was one of our steadiest owners - he won in what I think was his first year playing in 2007 (with Darrin back then), and was constantly in the money or a threat to cash.  On a personal level, I sadly have never met Andrew, and I think his connection to the league was Darrin, who came in through Jake.  If you're ever in New York, Mr. Cain, beers on me.  (El Angelo)

Agreed; all I have to add is that the data really broke down in some earlier years, so we don't really have know for sure where Darrin ended and Andrew began. Fourteen years earns magnanimity. (Teddy) 

#3.  Alex (17 seasons, 4 wins, 8 cashes, 0 DAFL)

A win for each time he drafted Huston Street too early.  (El Angelo)

Either his Simpsons icon hasn't been updated for a while or it is pulling some kind of reverse Portrait of Dorian Grey on him. (Teddy)

#2.  Tucker (18 seasons, 4 wins, 8 cashes, 0 DAFL)

Not only was he perpetually in contention, Tucker yearly had the most predictable yet unique roster construction of anyone in the league: top-notch hitters, a 1-2 man bench, and cycle through a zillion pitchers while riding hot hands.  I didn't do the math, but I would bet that Tucker cut over 600 relief pitchers over the his stewardship.  And it largely worked!  It's almost like he was a precursor to modern baseball pitching usage.  (El Angelo)

Yeah, he's the one who turned the Astros on to spin rate. But I'll remember him best as the runaway winner of the "Loudest Audible Scoffs Over a Draft Conference Call" awards from 2008-2015. Those were first-ballot performances. (Teddy) 

#1.  Scot (14 seasons, 5 wins, 10 cashes, 1 DAFL)

In the money 71% of the time, the most wins, and a last place finish tossed in just to throw us off the scent.  (He promptly wasted the first pick on Hanley Ramirez!)  There's really no debate who was the dominant owner in the league; it's almost enough to let us ignore the fact he's a Texas Rangers fan.  My compliments to the ultimate champ.  (El Angelo)

He came across so reasonably over email, too. Even so, I like to assume that he spent all our money on needle drugs and puppy catapults. Makes it easier, somehow. (Teddy)

*  *  *

Finally, for posterity, here are the final statistical standings. Te Occidere Possunt Sed Te Edere Non Possunt Nefas Es.

	AVG FINISH	Cashes	Cash %	Wins	Win %
Scot	4	9	0.64	5	0.36
Alex	4.1	9	0.53	4	0.24
Tucker	4.2	9	0.5	4	0.22
Jake	5.3	5	0.42	1	0.08
Chad	5.5	6	0.33	1	0.06
Darrandrew***	5.7	6	0.35	2	0.12
Angelo	6.7	4.5	0.26	0.5**	0.03
Will	7.2	2.5	0.18	0.5**	0.03
Matty G.	7.2	0	-	0	-
Corey*	7.3	1	0.07	0	-
Andy	7.4	2	0.11	0	-
Ben	7.6	0	-	0	-
Jon	8.3	1	0.06	0	-
Sahil	8.8	0	-	0	-
Barto	9	0	-	0	-
Vihal	9	0	-	0	-
Other Scot	9	0	-	0	-
Mike*	9	0	-	0	-
Val	12	0	-	0	-
	* Corey split '07 with Mike; finish assigned to Mike
** Co-owners in year of victory
	† ***Coupled as an entry because of past joint ownership

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2019 Kentucky Derby Preview Part II: The Top Half

In the past we've tried to opine on whether a class of Derby horses was "weak" or "strong."  This has largely turned out to be a fool's errand, mainly because most of the horses that run in the Derby are inexperienced.  Back in the 1980s and 90s, when horses had run 8-12 times before the Derby, we had a good idea who was any good.  But now, with most horses having run fewer than 7 times, we're largely guessing as to whether they're going to be good long-term.

Take last year - we thought that was an excellent class.  We couldn't have been more wrong.  Justify was clearly excellent and Good Magic was fine.  But he rest of the Derby crop was a big blah.  The Travers was won by Catholic Boy, a turf horse that had some dirt ability.  The Pennsylvania Derby was won by McKinzie who missed the entire Triple Crown.  None of the 3 year olds did anything in the Breeders Cup or the Pegasus Cup.  The 3rd place finisher in the Derby (Audible) has been outright bad since the Derby, 4th place finisher Instilled Regard looks like a turf horse, Bravazo and Hofburg haven't won a graded stakes race, and Vino Rosso has bombed trying Grade 1 races.

That said, we have a mental line of demarcation between the top 11 and bottom 9 horses in this year's field.  We give all the horses we previewed yesterday almost no shot to win on Saturday except for Maximum Security, who we really don't like.  And even among the top 9, we have a mental break at around #5 as to who can actually win the race.  So you won't find us backing...

We Might Regret This

9.  Improbable.  (ML: 5-1; VL: 25-1) Every class of thoroughbreds has a horse or two that wow you in their debut or first two races, leave everyone wondering what the horse's ceiling is, and it turns out we've already seen it.  This year's version is Improbable, who has the exact same connections as Justify (Bob Baffert trains, WinStar and China Horse Club own).  He won his maiden race stylishly, followed by an impressive win ungraded stakes race on the Breeders Cup card, which more than a few people thought was the best performance by a 2 year old that weekend.  Greatness was portended for Improbable by many, and since then he's been...fine.  Just fine.  He won the Los Alamitos Futurity in December, which was a nice win but only marginally faster than his prior win, and was against absolutely nobody who has turned out to be any good.  This year he has a pair of second place finishes at Oaklawn Park, where he was caught at the wire in the Rebel, and couldn't get by winner Omaha Beach in the Arkansas Derby.  More importantly, his speed figures have stagnated as the distances have gotten longer, which isn't a shock because he's out of rank sprinter City Zip.  Some people think he's sitting on a big effort for his third start.  We disagree - he looks like a miler who would relish a cutback to one turn and is going to get wildly overbet thanks to his connections.

8.  Game Winner.  (ML: 9-2; VL: 15-1)  Last year's 2-year old and Breeders Cup Juvenile champion has lost both of his races this year, but we're not particularly bothered by that because both losses were close seconds to horses that are very good.  What has us more concerned is we're not sure he's anything more than a grinder who did well last year because he was precocious.  This isn't a Baffert horse with great speed with the ability to rate like Silver Charm, Justify or American Pharoah, or quick acceleration like Real Quiet or Point Given.  Game Winner is much more even-paced, and succeeds largely because he doesn't quit - he reminds us of Baffert's 2010 Preakness winner Looking at Lucky.  Game Winner basically won the Juvenile last year because he got to longshot Knicks Go at the top of the stretch and maintained his pace while his opponent yielded.  That worked against lesser horses.  It also may work in longer races: he's exactly the kind of horse we'd like in the Belmont because he would keep cranking out 24.8 second fractions while the rest of the field is spinning its wheels.  But this running style cost him both of his races this year: he didn't have a closing punch to get by Omaha Beach in the Rebel, and he had no extra gear to hold off the closer Roadster in the SA Derby

Longshots du Jour

7.  War of Will.  (ML 15-1; VL: 35-1) Remember how we crapped on the Louisiana Derby yesterday?  Here's the beaten favorite from that race who ran a horrible 9th at 4-5.  But there are reasons to look past that race: he broke horribly and stumbled shortly out of the gate, which put him much farther back and wider in the race.  That's not War of Will's running style: he wants to be on or near the pace.  If he breaks alertly on Saturday, expect to see him near the front prompting the pace, especially since he's drawn the rail and doesn't have much of a choice.  He's going to be a nice price, and if the pace is soft, it wouldn't shock us if he hung around for a piece.

6.  Gray Magician.  (ML 50-1; VL: 25-1) The runner-up in the UAE Derby is an unlikely winner but is very live to outrun his odds and inflate the prices in exotic wagers.  His US starts were just so-so, but he showed tactical speed and a closing kick in Dubai, and he's bred fine for the distance (his full brother won the Sham last year, a key early Derby prep).  He's going to be a huge price on Saturday - we think there's a minor chance he's the longest shot on the board - and don't hesitate to use him underneath.

Contenders

5.  Code of Honor.  (ML 12-1; VL: 12-1)  One of the hardest horses in this race to get a handle on.  When he's good, he's really good: he looked phenomenal winning his maiden, ran a great 2nd in the Champagne where he basically fell at the break, and won stylishly in the Fountain of Youth.  On the other hand, he completely no-showed in his first start this year, and ran a fairly indifferent 3rd in the Florida Derby.  As usual with a Shug McGaughey horse, he's completely bereft of early speed and is at the mercy of the pacesetters, which is part of why he didn't run well in the Florida Derby - it was basically a parade on the front end and he had nothing to close into.  Sadly for Shug, we don't see a ton of speed in this race either.  And yet, he's training well, and Shug has correctly noted that they've been overcoming obstacles at every turn - this guy was a late scratch in the Breeders Cup Juvenile last year with an illness, and had training issues earlier this year too - but have had clear sailing for the last few weeks.  He's not at all impossible in the win slot, and is a must use underneath in your exotics.

4.  Tacitus.  (ML: 8-1; VL: 8-1) Bill Mott's second Derby entrant; unlike Country House, he is a prime contender.  He's impeccably bred: his father is super sire Tapit and his mother is Close Hatches, who won a slew of Grade 1 races earlier this decade, and he should relish 10 furlongs.  His two races this year were both impressive closing victories in the Tampa Bay Derby and Wood Memorial, and he won the Wood was despite him having traffic trouble early on.  Why we've ranked him fifth is we like a few others a little more, and we're skeptical that his dead-closing style is going to work in the Derby, as we don't see a ton of pace for him to close into.  Like Code of Honor, he's a contender who may not fit the shape of the race.

3.  Long Range Toddy.  (ML: 30-1; VL: 8-1) If a complete bomb is going to win on Saturday, he's the one we like the most by far.  There's no more tried-and-true handicapping angle than playing a horse that was well-regarded in his last race, ran badly on a sloppy track, and is now trying to rebound on a fast track.  Handicappers in this scenario will often just say "throw out that last race in the slop."  And if you do that here, you find a horse that beat Improbable fair and square in the Rebel, is bred nicely for 10 furlongs, has good tactical speed that should put him in the second flight of horses, and has excellent connections: all that's missing on trainer Steve Asmussen's career resume is a Derby win.  That sixth place finish in his last race is a bit of an eyesore and Jon Court isn't our favorite jockey in the world, but don't ignore this horse on Saturday - he's very live at what's going to be a big price.  (Note - based on his last race, if it's wet Saturday, which is looking very possible, downgrade his chances.)

2.  Roadster.  (ML: 5-1; VL: 5-1) While Game Winner may be the morning line favorite, we think he'll be the post-time favorite.  Baffert said last year that he thinks Roadster is his most talented colt, and the horse has done nothing to prove Baffert wrong.  Roadster won his maiden race impressively last year, then ran a decent third in the Del Mar Futurity.  Tellingly, he lost that race to Game Winner - who remember, Baffert also trains -  and in that race top jockey Mike Smith was on Roadster, not Game Winner.  After some time off for an injury and minor surgery (none of which matter here), he won an allowance race handily before turning the tables on Game Winner in the Santa Anita Derby, where he sat 7-8 lengths off the pace and closed impressively to win.  And unlike Tacitus, we don't think that this guy needs to close; he has tactical speed that he could use on Saturday to sit just off the front runners.  What we're mildly concerned is that he will be just behind our pick, who will get first run on him and maintain that lead in the stretch.

The Pick

1.  Vekoma.  (ML: 15-1; VL: 5-1) The Blue Grass Stakes hasn't been a productive Derby prep in a while - while it's had some runners finish in the money (including Good Magic last year), the last Derby winner it produced was Street Sense a dozen years ago.  But there are reasons to believe that this guy can buck the trend, as he's legitimately never run a bad race.  He won his maiden race and the Nashua Stakes last year, showing talent at a mile.  He took a little time off to freshen, and was brought back in the Fountain of Youth, where he ran a sneaky-good third, as he attended close to the suicidal pace and was around late in his first start in 4 1/2 months.  (He emerged from the race with the highest "Sheets" number, which is an advance metrics handicapping tool that tries to analyze all aspects of a race including trip and pace.)  He moved forward in the Blue Grass by sitting just off the pace, quickening on the turn and winning impressively, albeit over a not-spectacular field.

The critics have three negatives for Vekoma.  The first is his breeding: his sire is Candy Ride, who's perfectly fine, but his damsire is Speightstown, who was a champion sprinter.  That doesn't both us at all - Speightstown was out of router Gone West, and has produced multiple horses that have won at 10 furlongs (Seek Again, Haynesfield, Golden Ticket).  The second is his physical running style: students of form all believe that his leg action is peculiar and doesn't portend a horse that wants to run fast for two minutes.  We're not smart enough evaluators of form to give an answer on this, only to note that this has not been an issue in his first 4 races.  Third is the unknown nature of his connections, which to us is backwards.  Trainer George Weaver has been one of our favorites for over a decade, but hasn't had much success outside of Saratoga (where he's deadly every summer) because he hasn't had a Big Horse yet.  Vekoma might be it.  We're picking him to pull off the upset, give Weaver the spotlight he deserves as a top trainer, and finally, give us a square price in the Derby.

How to Bet

Our guess is that either Roadster or Game Winner is going to hover around 4-1 at post-time, so if there's a horse you like - be it them, Vekoma, or anyone else - just bet them to win!  We say this every year, but sometimes it's easiest to not get cute and just hope that you can get a 400%+ return on investment.  We intend to bet Vekoma and Long Range Toddy to win, and play some triples with them and Roadster up top, and use Tacitus, Code of Honor, Gray Magician and maybe Game Winner underneath.

Good luck and enjoy the race!

2019 Kentucky Derby Preview, Part I: The Others

The dogwoods are blooming, the pollen count is high, and there are funny hats abound.  Yes, it's time for the Kentucky Derby, and with it, our annual rite of hubris and disappointment, the GRBG's Kentucky Derby Preview.

Last year we set a new nadir for stubbornness and stupidity by not only completely tossing Justify -who only went on to win the Triple Crown - but for also picking Mendelssohn, who shipped in from Dubai via Ireland to break slowly and finish DAFL.  It was not our finest hour.  But we stand by that analysis.  We went against Justify because he was bucking a slew of historical rules and was the favorite.  We acknowledged he could win, but he's exactly the type of horse we'll pick against every time because there's no parimutuel value in picking him, and because we still think the rules have some applicability (perhaps now they're more "guidelines" than rules).  We have adhered to that ethos for over a decade, and were right numerous other times before 2018 - Curlin, Verrazano, and Bodemeister were three examples of horses that looked talented, but had flaws in their profiles, and were going to be short prices, so we didn't pick them.  Justify was the time we stuck to our guns and were wrong.   It happens.  All we can do is move on.

What's much more annoying about the Derby is that it's become too predictable.  As we noted in 2017, the favorite used to be an easy toss; it's now an automatic play.  The last time a favorite lost was in 2012 when I'll Have Another beat Bodemeister, and even then, the favorite ran second.  We maintain this is in large part because the points system gets the hopeless speedballs out of the field and leads to a more formful race.

But that's only half of it: closers have also become pariahs.  In fields that had sprinters carving out crazy opening fractions, the closers were always worth considering - think of Monarchos' last-to-first run in 2001, Street Sense in '07, Mine That Bird and Giacomo's crazy upsets, all of which were fueled by a breackneck pace.  Now?  The only closer that's won this decade was Orb in 2013, and even then, we had a horse (Palace Malice) freak on the lead because his trainer gave him blinkers for the first time in the Derby and cut quick fractions.  Every other winner this decade has had good tactical speed and attended close to the pace, keeping the closers at bay in the stretch.

Friend of the blog, voice of the
Triple Crown, and great guy, Larry Collmus

We recognize that we're looking at a 6-year run and extrapolating a trend based on a small sample size.  And we also know that each edition of the Kentucky Derby needs to be evaluated on its own merits, and by the strengths and weaknesses of each of the runners.  And we're not sure we have a solution: we're not advocating for letting hopeless horses back in the field, nor do we want the track superintendent to start making the track biased towards closers.  But we'd be remiss not to notice the recent trends and handicap accordingly.

Having said all that, let's look at the field for this year's Kentucky Derby.  As we do every year, we'll count down the 20 entrants starting with the horses we think are the least likely to win to the most, ending with our pick and some betting advice.  For each horse we'll also give you the morning line odds and what we think the "fair value" line is on the horse - that is, the price at which we think the horse becomes a reasonable play.  Today we'll look at the bottom half of the field, which is not going to be laden with value plays.  As usual, we're assuming the track at Churchill Downs is fast and fair, though as of press time, there is a chance of rain in the forecast.

Pass.  Just Pass.

20.  Bodexpress.  (Morning Line: 30-1; Fair Value Line: 200-1).  Originally an also-eligible, he only drew in because morning line favorite Omaha Beach scratched out on Wednesday evening with a trapped epiglottis.  (Side note: Omaha Beach was our original pick, and we hated ourselves for taking the favorite.  Problem solved!)  He's still a maiden and is only in this race because he ran second in the Florida Derby at 78-1, giving him enough points to make the cut.  Just because he can run in this race doesn't mean he should.  We're also not sure why this guy isn't the longest shot on the board.  And we're already regretful we've spent this many words talking about a no-hoper.

19.  Master Fencer.  (ML: 50-1; FVL: 200-1).  Over the last couple of years, the Kentucky Derby has tried to make the race a little more international by holding slots open for the winners of certain prep races in Europe and Japan.  This is largely a selfish goal - the more overseas horses that run in the Derby, the more people in those countries will bet on the race, which is certainly good for Churchill Downs' coffers.  And hey, American racing could use more international exposure, right?

In any event, Europe isn't sending anyone this year, but Japan is taking up the invitation and sending over this fairly unaccomplished colt who finished 4th and 2nd in two lightly regarded stakes races in Japan, and has given no indication that he's fast enough to compete against America's top three year olds.  (Japan had three horses eligible to run with more qualifying points; they all passed.)  We're not against him running in the Derby over domestic horses because the horses that are left on the sidelines, frankly, stink: next on the points list is Signalman, who's run 3rd and 7th in his two starts this year; after him is Anothertwistafate, who should be disqualified simply for having such a horrible name.  But just because we're fine with Master Fencer being in the race doesn't mean we think he has a chance given that he seems slow and is shipping 8,000 miles to run in a large field that runs in the opposite direction.  We just hope that he stays out of everyone else's way, and doesn't add to the chaos of a 20-horse race.

Have Another Julep!

18.  Country House.  (ML: 30-1; FVL: 100-1) Bill Mott is one of the five best trainers of our lifetime, but the Triple Crown has never been his forte - his only win was Drosselmeyer's head-scratcher in the 2010 Belmont, and he's only run 8 horses in the Derby, none of which have been close to finishing in the money.  Something seems to have rekindled his interest in the race recently though: after skipping the Derby for 9 years, Mott ran Hofburg last year, who did nothing, and this year he's got two horses as well.  By far the lesser of the two is Country House, who has no tactical speed and hasn't won a single race of note, and drew the 20 post.  There's a chance Mott wins his first Derby this year, but it would be a shocker if this plodder did it.

17.  Spinoff.  (ML: 30-1; FVL: 100-1) There are about half a dozen traditional Kentucky Derby preps, and part of handicapping the Derby is considering which of those preps were weak and strong, since it'll help you evaluate the quality of the horses exiting them.  To us, this year's prep weakling was the Louisiana Derby, which proved nothing except that a series of horses ran counterclockwise in an oval in steamy Louisiana on March 23rd and somebody won.  The 4-5 favorite (who we'll discuss later) had a trip from hell and was basically out of the race early on.  This lead the race open to chaos, and chaos is what ensued.  The slow Country House finished 4th; the marginally faster Spinoff finished 2nd.

16.  Win Win Win.  (ML: 12-1; FVL: 65-1) We're automatically against this horse for having a horrible name, but his accomplishments aren't doing much for us either.  He was competitive in a bunch of races in Maryland, and won a 7 furlong race at Tampa.  Once he began running around 2 turns and at longer distances against better company, he got slower.  That doesn't augur well for a 10-furlong race around two turns at a major track.

15.  Tax. (ML: 20-1; FVL: 65-1) This horse is extremely well-bred: his sire is the blue-blooded Arch, his dam's dam is the regally bred Yell, who ran 3rd in the Kentucky Oaks.  So why did Claiborne Farm - the grand dame of breeders - never take Tax seriously and enter him in two maiden claiming races, when it meant they could lose him (which they did)?  Presumably because they didn't think he was particularly good or sound.  In fairness they probably did make a mistake, as he's turned into a serviceable horse, with a win in the Withers and non-threatening seconds in the Wood and Remsen.  But we have a hard time seeing a horse that Claiborne discarded winning America's biggest race.

14.  Haikal.  (ML: 30-1; FVL: 50-1) Your quintessential dead closer who won the Gotham when the race completely fell apart.  Even with that, he could only muster 3rd place in the Wood Memorial even with a pace meltdown.  Since we're not predicting a suicidal pace in this race, and there are other closers we think have more upside, we'll move on.

The Wrong Prep Winners

13.  Plus Que Parfait.  (ML: 30-1; FVL: 50-1) In his first two starts this year, he ran a non-threatening 5th in the Lecomte and a horrendous 13th in the Risen Star.  Knowing this horse was overmatched in the States, his trainer wisely sent him to Dubai for the UAE Derby, where a purse of $2.5 million and inferior competition beckoned.  That decision panned out well, as he won and has now banked nearly $1.6 million.  Mind you, he was patently unimpressive in winning, as he had a perfect trip and held on for dear life in the final furlong against a horse with a much worse trip.  That fattened his checkbook, but doesn't change that he's pretty evidently a cut below the others.

12.  Cutting Humor.  (ML: 30-1; FVL 50-1) This year's winner of the Sunland Derby, a race that has only produced two relevant runners in Kentucky Derby history.  The first was 2009 Derby winner Mine That Bird, who was 50-1, should have been 500-1, and from whom no historical trends should be drawn.  The second was Firing Line, who trainer Simon Callaghan sent to the Sunland Derby because he wanted an easy prep race and to avoid behemoths American Pharoah and Dortmund.  Everyone knew before the race that Firing Line was one of the 5 best horses in training, and he validated it by romping in the Sunland Derby and running 2nd in the Kentucky Derby.  That's not who usually runs in the Sunland Derby, it's ordinarily Grade 3 horses looking for a check and an excuse to get Derby tickets.  That pretty much exactly who Cutting Humor is.

11.  By My Standards.  (ML: 15-1; FVL: 40-1) Remember how we said the Louisiana Derby was basically a race won by default?  Here's who won it.  And we're calling B.S. on how high that last speed figure was.

10.  Maximum Security.  (ML: 8-1; FVL: 30-1) The Florida Derby winner is undefeated in four starts, has gotten faster with extra distance, and going to take a lot of money on Saturday.  And we're squarely against him for a multitude of reasons.  First, we don't love horses that have never shipped before.  Given that he's undefeated there, we know he loves Gulfstream Park, but are just guessing if he likes literally any other racetrack on Earth.  Second, we are unconvinced that this guy is anywhere near as good as his last two speed figures indicate.  His penultimate win was in an allowance race at 7 furlongs against a bunch of nobodies.  The Florida Derby fell into his lap as the other speed horse (Hidden Scroll) didn't go to the front, allowing Maximum Security to waltz through slow fractions and have plenty left for the stretch.  That's not going to happen Saturday - we don't see a breakneck pace, but he's not getting a series of 24-second quarter-miles either.

Third, we're not on the Jason Servis bandwagon, who bizarrely, went from being a fairly anonymous trainer to the trainer with the highest winning percentage in America.  But even that's mostly with lesser horses; the only two "good" horses in his barn are sprinter World of Trouble and this guy.  We know anonymous trainers from minor tracks have proven us wrong in the past - heck, his brother John Servis won the Derby with Smarty Jones and has been on a milk carton since then.  But Smarty Jones was a talented colt who peaked at the right time against a weak class.  Maximum Security has two nice races to his credit, both of which are easy to wave off.  We're expecting a regression from this horse on Saturday, followed by a long vacation.

Coming up tomorrow: Our Top 9, including our pick and wagering advice.

2018 Breeders Cup Preview Part 2: Saturday's Races

Now THAT'S more like it - we picked three winners on Friday's card, and tapped Jaywalk as someone with a big shot.  So let's get right back on the horse - there are nine races to get through, so let's jump right in with more tremendous opinions.

Filly and Mare Sprint

Synopsis: 7 furlongs on the dirt for the ladies.  Somehow this race has become the one we've picked the best over the last few years.  We tabbed winners Judy the Beauty ('14) and Wavell Avenue ('15) - the latter at 13-1.  Two years ago we picked Finest City for second; she won at 9-1.  Last year we went out on limb with Ami's Mesa, she lost by a nose at 18-1 (to Bar of Gold, who was 70-1 and we noted was interesting).  This probably means our picks will run 8th, 9th and 12th.

Favorite: He only has horses in 3 races on Saturday, but Bob Baffert looks to get the day started off with a winner in deserving favorite Marley's Freedom, who exits and easy victory in the Ballerina at 7 furlongs.  She's had a solid season, but really went to another level when Baffert took over her training mid-season and then rattled off three wins.  Ignore at your own risk.

Interesting Longshot: Price play Miss Sunset may get forgotten in the wagering but isn't without a chance.  She's 2-for-4 at the 7 furlong distance and a key requirement in this race is success at the distance.  Her start earlier this year at Keeneland where she was nosed out by Finleysluckycharm (who's also here, and will be half the price) would make her competitive if the favorite falters.

Betting Strategy: Either single or spread, depending on how much you like Marley's Freedom.  We are not at all interested in second-choice Selcourt, who's coming into the race off a 7 1/2 month layoff.  She drew the rail and is going to have to gun from there if she wants to have any chance, and we think that'll set her up to get fried by the other speedballs.  

Picks: We're inclined to stick with the favorite and go hunting for some prices underneath.  In addition to our longshot du jour, we have some interest in Highway Star, who likes the distance and is getting a nice jockey upgrade, and Skye Diamonds, solely from a pace perspective.  But we think the day gets started off with some chalk.

1.  Marley's Freedom
2.  Miss Sunset
3.  Highway Star

Turf Sprint

Synopsis: 5 1/2 furlongs on the turf for all comers.  Try to get us excited about this race.  You've already failed.  This half hour will almost certainly be used by us to pick up lunch.

Favorite: Stormy Liberal won this race last year at 30-1 and will be a lot shorter price this year, as he's won 3 straight coming into this race.  He looks legitimate, but we're concerned that the expected soft turf won't be to his liking.  

Interesting Longshot: We originally were going to have Will Call as one of our picks because he likes the track and the distance, but he seems to want harder turf.  Hmm.  If you want a really fun horse to root for, Lost Treasure is a 3 year old running for the 5th time in 5 weeks and 8th time since late August.  That's not a misprint.

Betting Strategy: Spread.  We'll say it for the umpteenth time: in this race, it's always spread.

Picks: Without a ton of confidence, we'll focus on Stormy Liberal, as well as Chanteline, who's got a good record at the distance, improving 3 year old World of Trouble, and the ageless Rainbow Heir.  We'll use Disco Partner and Hembree defensively only: both want a little longer but are probably the most talented horses in the field.  Really, don't go too nuts on this silly race.

1.  Chanteline
2.  World of Trouble
3.  Stormy Liberal

Dirt Mile

Synopsis: 1 mile on the dirt for anyone interested.  We generally crap on this race, but like it a little better when it's at Churchill Downs because it's a one-turn mile, rather than a two-turn race.  That makes it a lot more interesting for both stretch-outs and turnbackers, and this year we actually have a mildly interesting field.

Favorite: A lot of people consider the undefeated Catalina Cruiser to be the lock of the weekend.  We're definitely not in that camp.  He's got a shot, sure, but he's only run 4 times in his career (which only started as a 4-year old, proving he's not a picture of soundness), he's never left California or faced this caliber of horses, and his trainer is 0-for-41 in Breeders Cup races.  That's not someone we want to bet at even money.

Interesting Longshot: We have two: Seven Trumpets and Triple Crown veteran Bravazo.  The former has run pretty well in one-turn races and stretches out from a good 3rd in the Gallant Bob, where he was running on a dead rail.  Bravazo is turning back from routes and that's an angle we like a lot in 1-turn miles.  Both should be around 15-1 and aren't impossible.

Betting Strategy: Narrow.  We endorse using Catalina Cruiser defensively, and like our longshots more underneath than up top.  We do give Firenze Fire a shot to win as we think he'll like a 1-turn mile, but ultimately think he'll lose to...

Picks: City of Light is someone we've been excited to bet for a while and will be a fulcrum of our Saturday wagering.  He's had a really good year, starting with 2 wins in California (a December 26 race is considered "this year" by us) around 1 turn.  He then tried a distance at Oaklawn, where he beat Accelerate and looked great.  He flopped at 10 furlongs, so he shipped to Saratoga for the 7 furlong Forego, where he had a bad trip and finished a good 2nd to Whitmore, who loves the distance and the track and got a better trip.  Trainer Mike McCarthy (who's pretty good) has been pointing him for this race all year and he's working out well to get here.  So yes, our best bet is in this race.  It's just not with the horse other people are picking.

1.  City of Light
2.  Firenze Fire
3.  Seven Trumpets

Filly and Mare Turf

Synopsis: 1 3/8 miles on the turf for the ladies.  They have run this race 19 times, and 4 trainers - Chad Brown, Bobby Frankel, Sir Michael Stoute and Ed Dunlop - have accounted for 10 of the wins.  Since Frankel is no longer with us and Stoute and Dunlop are sitting this year out, it should be a piece of cake to handicap this race right?  Wrong.

Favorite: The aforementioned Chad Brown has five horses entered in this race, including the favorite Sistercharlie.  She's 3-for-4 this year with her only loss being by a head in the New York Handicap, where she lost the race by jockey error, not lack of talent.  She's legitimately really good.  The only issue with her is that she missed her prep race in October because she missed training time with a bruised foot, but supposedly, she's fine now.

Interesting Longshot: We don't love that she's in the 13 post, but Dermot Weld's Eziyra is interesting to us.  She has repeated success at 12 furlongs (1 furlong longer than this race) and was a solid 3rd to Sea of Class two races back.  If Sea of Class was in this race, she'd be an even money favorite.

Betting Strategy: Spread.  We don't think you need to consider all 5 of Chad Brown's horses: Thais appears to be in here for pace purposes only, Santa Monica is clearly his 3rd stringer, and A Raving Beauty is a miler that doesn't look like she'll appreciate the distance.  That said, don't ignore Fourstar Crook, who's pretty good in her own right.

Picks: We originally had Aiden O'Brien's Magic Wand as our pick, but the fact it's going to be soft turf on Saturday made us reconsider, as she seems to prefer firm.  We'll only use her defensively, as well as Wild Illusion, who's very competitive and will like a softer going, but we think wants it a little shorter.  To hell with it, we'll go with our longshot on top.

1.  Eziyra
2.  Wild Illusion
3.  Sistercharlie

Sprint

Synopsis: 6 furlongs on the dirt for the fast and furious.  In good news, they've bumped the purse back to $2 million.  Now if they would only decrease the purse in the Dirt Mile and Filly Sprint to try to actually get the best sprinters in the same race, we'd be on to something.  Because a field of 9 does not get our juices flowing.  

Favorite: It'll either by defending champion Roy H or Imperial Hint, who ran second in this race last year.  Both look solid but vulnerable: Roy H hasn't quite run back to last year's form but hasn't been horrible, while Imperial Hint has only lost once this year, but it was at Churchill Downs (albeit on the slop).  

Interesting Longshot: Blech.  While we're not in love with the favorites, none of the horses that figure to be over 10-1 do much for us either.  I guess we'll side with B Squared, who is turning back to six furlongs and has some interesting 6 furlong races in his past.

Betting Strategy: Spread.  A big question in this race is how much you think "horse for the course" matters, as Imperial Hint has run badly twice at Churchill Downs, while Limousine Liberal has 6 wins in 8 starts at Churchill.  We're not in love with the latter as we think he's really a 7 furlong horse, and if history has taught us anything in this race, it's to focus on horses that are 6-furlong specialists.

Picks: Another truism in this race is to favor horses with early speed rather than dead closers.  While you would think that all the front runners would perpetually set things up for a closer, in the last 20 years, only 3 horses have won this race when more than 4 lengths off the pace after a quarter mile (two of which were Midnight Lute's back to back wins).  So while we'll use good closer Whitmore underneath, we won't put him on top.  Of the speed horses, we like 3 year old Promises Fulfilled the most, as we think he still has upside and can keep going on the lead for 6 furlongs even if other horses bother him.  He's our pick for a minor upset.

1.  Promises Fulfilled
2.  Imperial Hint
3.  Whitmore

Mile

Synopsis: 1 mile on the turf for anyone interested.  This remains our favorite Breeders Cup race, and this year, it's the starting point of the late pick four, which is also our favorite bet of the year.  So it's kinda important to get this right for parimutuel purposes.

Favorite: While American horses have recently been the way to go in this race - 6 of the last 7 winners were American, we think favoritism lands on European Expert Eye.  (It would have been Polydream, but she was a controversial vet's scratch Friday morning.)  There are some things to like here, as Sir Michael Stoute is a great trainer and he's well-bred.  What troubles us more is that he's never won at a flat mile.  There has literally never been a horse win this race without a win at a mile on the turf.

Interesting Longshot: It's rare that a horse with the highest last-out speed figure is a longshot, but Next Shares is going to be at least 12-1 (and possibly much longer) despite posting the highest Gowanus Speed Figure last out.  After having a fairly undistinguished career, something woke up 2 races ago where he won at Kentucky Downs, followed by winning the Shadwell at Keeneland at 23-1.  He does have success at a mile and is in good form, so maybe?

Betting Strategy: Spread.   This is as wide-open as we've seen the race in a while: we don't love the favorite, and we don't think the longshots are out of it.  We're playing the Pick Four and seriously contemplating using 8 horses.

Picks: Historically, two of the key angles in this race have been picking horses with multiple wins at a turf mile and those exiting a sharp prep race.  This actually narrows down the field quite a bit, and knocks out some shorter priced horses like Expert Eye (winless at the distance), Gustav Klimt (ditto), Happily (no wins this year), and Analyze It (bad 4th in last).  We may use them defensively, but we're more focused on Oscar Performance, who's undefeated at a mile (including winning the Juvenile Turf 2 years ago), Mustashry, who loves a mile and is in good form (albeit against lesser company), and I Can Fly, who almost beat Roaring Lion in her last (he would probably be the favorite here).  Gun to our head, we'll take Aiden O'Brien's horse, even though somehow, he's never won this race.

1.  I Can Fly
2.  Mustashry
3.  Oscar Performance

Distaff

Synopsis: 1 1/8 miles on the dirt for the women.  And finally, the Distaff is back to Saturday!  That only took a decade.  

Favorite: Monomoy Girl has made 10 starts and has never been out of the exacta.  In fact, she's only lost twice: by a neck in her last race last year, and in the Cotillion her prep race for the Distaff, where she was disqualified after drifting and blocking Midnight Bisou.  She's a lot of fun and looks tough here at a short price.

Interesting Longshot: La Force has only won twice in 22 starts, but we have interest in her as a bomb to hit the board.  She's a dead closer who's clunked up for 3rd in her last three races and should have a decent pace to run at.  We're also of the opinion that closers are usually at a disadvantage in California - where La Force ran every one of her US races - whereas in Kentucky, they get a much fairer shake.

Betting Strategy: Narrow.  Of the horses under 10-1 on the morning line, we have no interest in Wow Cat or Blue Prize, who we think are pure second-tier horses, and are generally against Abel Tasman, who ran horribly in her last.

Picks: We've narrowed this down to three horses: Monomoy Girl, La Force, and Midnight Bisou, who was Monomoy Girl's nemesis this year and only beat her by DQ in the Cotillion.  While we'd use all three in our Pick-Somethings, we're going to stick with the favorite here and our goofy longshot to finish the exacta.

1.  Monomoy Girl
2.  La Force
3.  Midnight Bisou

Turf

Synopsis: 1 1/2 miles on the turf for anyone long-winded enough to try.  Since Buck's Boy wired the field in 1998, we've had 20 winners of the Turf (there was a dead heat in '03), with 16 of the winners being imports from Europe, and one of the other 4 being a European who campaigned in the US (Main Sequence).  What's also remarkable is that favorites have been a horrible bet in this race: the last favorite to win was Conduit repeating in 2009.  Time and time again, the "other" European has been the successful bet - think of Red Rocks, Shirocco, Dangerous Midge, Magician, and of course, last year's winner Talismanic (who's back this year).

Favorite: Possibly the biggest favorite of the weekend is going to be Enable, who won the Arc de Triomphe in Paris this year and last year.  As we've said before and you'll see a billion times, no Arc winner has ever won the Breeders Cup Turf and many have tried.   Plenty of people think this is the year that "curse" ends, in part because it's only Enable's 3rd start of the year, so she's presumably not over the top.  We're certainly not going to advocate tossing her, but we do note that even money is a short price to take on a horse that's trying to do something other excellent horses have tried to do and failed.

Interesting Longshot: Despite all the above admonitions against betting American horses, we have a little interest in Robert Bruce, who won the Arlington Million earlier this year and goes out for super-trainer Chad Brown.  He ran a blah second in the Hirsch last out, but that was over a bog-like turf in a paceless race.  If it was simply the result of not liking the surface (and we note he lost his other start at Belmont earlier in the year) and not having someone to run at, he's kinda sorta interesting at around 15-1.

Betting Strategy: Narrow.  While we respect her, we are not going to single Enable.  We heard the exact same plaudits about Golden Horn 3 years ago (who was also trained by John Gosden) who came over after a great year and a good win in the Arc.  He ran a solid second to Aiden O'Brien's three-year-old filly Found, who Golden Horn had beaten in the Arc four weeks earlier, and who had a productive start in between in the Champions Stakes.  This year, O'Brien has entered the three-year-old filly Magical, who lost in the Arc and just won the Champions Stakes.  Hmmm....

Picks: The other Arc "also ran" that looks imposing is Waldgeist, who ran a solid 4th when he had some traffic trouble.  That broke his 4-race win streak, but we liked that he had tactical speed and was barely beaten by Enable, who actually almost loss the race late to Sea of Class.  In any other year, Waldgeist would be a solid favorite.  Here?  He's going to get slightly overlooked and we think will be excellent value at around 5-1.  We like him to turn the tables in a mild upset.

1.  Waldgeist
2.  Enable
3.  Robert Bruce

Classic

Synopsis: 1 1/4 miles on the dirt for three year olds and up.  Once again, we're not blowing this race out this year because of time constraints.  What is nice is that there's no dominating favorite this year, making it a nice puzzle and betting race to close out the Breeders Cup.

Favorite: In a year where we didn't have a Triple Crown winner, Accelerate would be way ahead of the field for Horse of the Year: he's only lost once this year, he swept the California Grade 1's for older horses, and has won just shy of $2 million.  He's been handled perfectly by John Sadler: he was an after-thought in the Dirt Mile two years ago, and has stretched out and blossomed as a 5 year old, and is a worthy favorite.  And with all that being said...we're going to try to beat him because we think he's over the top, has been beating up on lesser horses all year, and doesn't like to leave California.  He reminds us of Lava Man, who had a great year in California in 2006.  When he went to Kentucky for the Breeders Cup, he was nowhere to be found.

Interesting Longshot: We're probably going to look like idiots once again but...we're interested in Mendelssohn at a price.  Yes, the same Mendelssohn we picked to win the Derby and picked DAFL.  Since then he's had a bad Dwyer Stakes, followed by a good second in the Travers and a sneaky-good third in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, where he got into a suicidal pace duel with the talented Diversify but still only lost by 2 lengths.  He has the controlling early speed.  The question is whether he'll get fried again or if he can wire the field.  A tall order, but if he's 12-1 or higher, we'll take a stab that he can do it.

Betting Strategy: Relatively narrow.  We're not in love with Catholic Boy, who we acknowledge beat Mendelssohn in the Travers, but had a perfect trip and we think just isn't fast enough.  Roaring Lion is making his dirt debut here and has the look of a trainer taking a free roll; we'll pass.  Thunder Snow looked a little interesting until he drew the rail; he probably has to get sent to the lead from there and we think that's not going to be his best style.  Yoshida's not impossible as he might get a perfect trip, but the field he beat in the Woodward was atrocious.  And we're just not seeing Mind Your Biscuits at 10 furlongs.  He should be in the Sprint or Dirt Mile.

Picks: One reason we weren't in love with Justify was that we were convinced that the best 3 year old in Bob Baffert's barn was McKinzie, who was a Grade 1 in his second race (albeit by DQ), then won the Sham with ease, and crossed the finish line first in the San Felipe against Bolt d'Oro, only to be DQ'd on a bump.  He came out of that race injured so he missed the Triple Crown, and got to watch Justify make history.  But Baffert kept brought him back in the Pennsylvania Derby, where he won with ease.  Yes, he's never taken on older horses before, but we don't think this is a stellar field, and think his biggest competition is stablemate West Coast, who also is making his second start off the layoff.  We think they duel down the stretch, and McKinzie edges out West Coast giving Baffert his 4th Classic win in 5 years.

1.  McKinzie

2.  West Coast

3.  Mendelssohn

Good luck and enjoy the races!!!