Wednesday, March 10, 2010

Transactions Analysis: 2010 Pre-Keeper Edition

The keeper lists are in, the pre-draft haggling is done, the February/March swaps have been made, and the owners are now reviewing their stats to prepare for this year's draft. Which means it's time for one other thing: the inaugural TA!

This is the seventh year of doing these fantastically pointless columns. Let us repeat that for effect--the seventh year. When Teddy and I started this in 2004, neither of us had met our spouses, both of us were working at large law firms, we both had thick manes of brown hair, and our respective fantasy teams sucked. Fast forward to 2010, and the only thing that's remained constant is the crappiness of our teams, as we've finished in the money a combined one time since starting these analysis. But still, we slog on with our pithy insight on the foibles of our league, given that we have the utmost respect of the fellow owners. (El Angelo)

This has got to be the longest-running column ever to arise out of a putatively one-off inside joke. I figure once we get to 10 years, we'll have a handsome set of bound editions made, then send one to our inspiration Christina Kahrl, who writes the TA column at Baseball Prospectus. Our gift will no doubt be so unexpected that it will startle the genitals back out of her abdomen. (Teddy)

The Little Green One

  • Traded its 5th round pick in the 2010 draft to Le Dupont Torkies for Chase Utley, 2B, Philadelphia and its 9th round pick [2/24].

  • Traded its 6th round pick to Le Dupont Torkies for Manny Ramirez, OF, Los Angeles [3/1].

A pillaging. Not, mind you, that it's LDT's fault, given that the team found itself with about 26 slots worth of keepable players and only had 12 slots to work with for next year. But the Marvins bought themselves a viable franchise (including what we think is a top-5 overall fantasy player) for next year for the price of 2 mid-round picks. Tough to argue with that. (Teddy & El Angelo)

Jeters Never Prosper
  • Traded Billy Wagner, RP, Atlanta to The Revenge Society for its 5th round pick in the 2010 draft [3/9].

Jake sent everyone a list this morning of pitchers that he had available for trades, and frankly, they all look the same. So flipping excess for a pick is never bad. What's mildly amusing is that the last two years this pick has been used to take mediocre closers--Brian Wilson and Joe Borowski. So we expect Jake to use it to add Matt Guerrier to his roster. (El Angelo)

I have it on good authority that Kevin Gregggg is available. (Teddy)

The Situation Room
  • Traded Adam Jones, OF, Baltimore and its second 10th round pick in the 2010 draft to Gowanus Superfunders for Rick Porcello, SP, Detroit and its 7th round pick [2/18].

As I hate talking about my own trades, this one's pretty straightforward. I had four keepable outfielders and didn't want to clog the DH spot up. By contrast, you can never have enough starting pitching. As discussed below, I actually think Jones is a stud about to bloom, and fully recognize that this trade may look horrible in about a year. (El Angelo)

Porcello is in a great situation; the only question is health, given his massive IP bump last year. I couldn't bring myself to rely on him next year, so I pulled the trigger. As a 4th SP flyer, though, he's a nice acquisition. (Teddy)

The Revenge Society
  • Traded its 5th round pick in the 2010 draft to Jeters Never Prosper for Billy Wagner, RP, Atlanta [3/9].

Value-wise, this is an excellent trade for this squad because Wagner would have gone well before the 5th round and the team didn't have 12 keepers for this squad. Which is actually what's amazing--this is one of the two best owners in the league, and he's filling keeper slots before draft day. Just shows how the best laid plans can go to shit for anyone. (El Angelo)

We're down to what, 10 closers available in the draft again this year? Jaysus. (Teddy)

Gowanus Superfunders (nee Torkies Big Girls Sex)
  • Traded Rick Porcello, SP, Detroit and its 7th round pick in the 2010 draft to The Situation Room for Adam Jones, OF, Baltimore and its second 10th round pick [2/18]

  • Traded its 4th round pick in the 2010 draft to the Will, Name Your Teams! for Ryan Howard, 1B, PHI.

Teddy's been getting beat up a little bit in the emails for this deal, but I really like Jones to be a 30/30 player in a year or two. Getting him for an arm looks like a smart play to me. (El Angelo)

I'll be honest: Porcello scares the hell out of me this year. He threw 170 innings as a 20 year-old, and didn't strike anyone out. I fear the Jeremy Bonderman career path awaits, and there's no doubt in my mind that he would have exploded instantly if I'd kept him. Now, though, I'm sure he'll be fine. As long as he has Adam Everett playing SS behind him, and his arm stays attached to his body, he'll be a valuable guy.

The Howard trade was motivated by my realization that my keeper list sucked out loud. I just needed talent anywhere I could get it, and Howard qualified. (Teddy)

Le Dupont Torkies

  • Traded Chase Utley, 2B, Philadelphia and its 9th round pick in the 2010 draft to The Little Green One for its 5th round pick [2/24].

  • Traded Manny Ramirez, OF, Los Angeles to The Little Green One for its 6th round pick [3/1]

Manny is old (dude's 38!), coming off a steroid bust, and was getting expensive, so cutting bait there was the right move. The interesting thing will be to compare the marginal production of the Carlos Pena/Adam Dunn axis against what LDT could have gotten out of Utley+. We will say that with those guys' numbers around, Utley's power production helped this franchise a little less than most teams. (El Angelo & Teddy)


Anonymous said...

Sam: is that Kaplan's yearbook photo?

Ullstein: aha.

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