H2H Versus Roto, Continued

I started to do this as a comment to Angelo's post, but I think there's enough here to warrant another full post on the subject.

My starting point is that (as I understand it) H2H differs most from roto in that margin of defeat in a category doesn't matter in H2H. You get 1 point for winning a category, and 0 for losing, so all you're trying to do is win 3 of 5 pitching and 3 of 5 hitting categories per week. Contrast that with the spread of possible outcomes in roto, where you get points based on where you stand against all other teams in the league over the course of the season, not just one team per week. In roto, if you focus too narrowly on a few categories, you tend to fall way behind in the others and only get 1-2 of the 10-12 points available in those categories. The binary nature of H2H scoring makes punting a category or two a much more viable option, since your downside is so much smaller.

This is all by way of a long intro to my thesis that starting pitching might not be the way to go in H2H. You'd be better off with a team of made up largely of good closers and middle relievers, dominating ERA, WHIP, and SV, and hoping to vulture enough W's to steal that category. If you lose K's by 15, who cares? It's just 1 point. But you'll maximize your chances to "win" the pitching side every week by taking those three other categories.

Pitching is of course wildly variable week-to-week, so Angelo might just be running in bad luck. But I think the ability to game the two rate stats while nailing down SV makes relievers proportionally more valuable. Thoughts (other than that we're probably overthinking this)?

Next post will be funny. Honest.

Head-to-Head versus Rotisserie

I do not pride myself on being a great fantasy player, or even a very good one. I would, however, like to think that I'm halfway decent. I can "scout" talent, as it is. I read a fair amount of baseball material, and have a fair eye for who's on the improve and decline, and can sniff out sleepers fairly well. Am I as gifted as some of the owners in this league? Nah. But I'm not the worst at it either, as evidenced by a few decent showings in this league.

Which brings me to League #2 that I'm in, which is head-to-head. Let's ignore the fact that I think head-to-head is an abomination in baseball, as it's wildly unpredictable week to week with pitching starts, rate stats getting thrown out of whack, and diminishes the value of an injury prone yet good player (eg, Barry Bonds). And the playoffs are asinine, as what teams do with their players in September is wholly unrelated to the rest of the year, yet this is when you determine who gets all the marbles. Yeah, fantasy football has this problem to, but to a much lesser degree, and it's mostly obviated by knocking Week 17 out of the equation.

What I don't get is why my teams in H2H leagues perpetually blow, despite me having roughly the same amount of aptitude in drafting. I'll accept that I can't do well every year; injuries and bad luck make that an impossibility. But I'm now on Year Three of thinking I drafted a good team, and seeing my squad in next-to-last place. Ok, it's only after two weeks...but I'm still befuddled as to what the fungus happened here.

So I open the floor: what the hell am I missing in H2H? Is there some strategy difference between it and rotisserie? Am I dumb for valuing starters and power hitters and kids? Or am I just unlucky three times in a row? Is there a fundamental drafting difference I should know about? Because man, it sucks to be awful every time and not understand why.