Season Preview: Enrico Palazzo

As part of my new job, I’ve been indoctrinated into the elaborate code of acronyms that surround modern education-speak. One of those acronyms is “IEP”, which it turns out refers to the “individualized education plans” given to Special Ed kids.
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I confess to having felt a pang of guilt upon learning this, because we here at the GRBG have consistently referred to the It’s Enrico Palazzo franchise as IEP for years now without realizing that we were essentially calling the team a bunch of retards. Tonally, that’s considerably harsher than we usually like to go.

Perhaps it’s best, then, that the franchise has chosen to streamline its name, simply going by “Enrico Palazzo” this season. That both eliminates the IEP issue and sets up a fun Rays/Devil Rays parallel as EP tries to bounce back from last year’s catastrophe and rebound back into the money. Let’s take a look at how far they’ve advanced towards that goal.

Infield

Well, the team is off to a pretty good start here. I don’t know that there’s a team out there that wouldn’t trade its left side of the IF for EP’s duo of David Wright and Hanley Ramirez. I also like Kendry Morales to take one more half-step forward, as LAA’s offense is pretty much going to run through him this year. Those three, plus acceptable up-the-middle placeholders Dan Uggla and Miguel Montero, put EP very much on the road back.

Outfield

In contrast to the IF, which is both young and good, the OF is old and iffy once you get past Andre Ethier. Johnny Damon and Raul Ibanez each outperformed expectations last year, but their birth certificates are going to catch up with the both sooner or later (and Damon made a disastrous switch in home ballparks). Carlos Quentin hasn’t managed to stay healthy pretty much ever, though he does give the group a needed dose of upside. Some in-season shuffling will probably be called for here.

Rotation

The top of the rotation (Sabathia/Cain/Harden/Burnett) is surprisingly good for a team that was last in pretty much every pitching counting stat last year. The two Yankees in particular are likely to win an obscene number of games this year. Unfortunately, just as we were about to write a glowing review for this section, we glanced down to the bottom of the rotation and saw Edwin Jackson (coming off a fluke year and heading to a lousy park) and perennial GRBG punching bag B. Ronson Arroyo. Suffice to say that we think the last rotation slot or two are going to see a lot of different occupants this year.

Bullpen

We preface this section by noting that the team’s owner couldn’t be present for the end of the draft, meaning his pen is stocked in part by guys he might not have intended. But, with that caveat out of the way: Fail. Kerry Wood and Brandon Lyon are textbook examples of Opening Day closers who are unlikely to make it through the whole season intact (and indeed, Wood is already hurt). Those two are backed up by JP Howell (out until May) and Scott Downs (third in line for saves in Toronto). So, based on the current injury, EP’s opening day ‘pen will consist solely of Brandon Lyon and a middle reliever from the toughest offensive division in baseball. Yikes.

Outlook

Honestly, for a team that came in eleventh last year, this edition of the EP squad is quite good. There are pieces in place that will let the team get back into contention. Unfortunately, we’re not sure that there are enough of those pieces to support contention this year. EP will likely have to content himself with a return to mid-table respectability this year, and aim to make a real push for the top in ’11.

Season Preview: It's Enrico Palazzo

We turn now to the 2007 Champion, It's Enrico Palazzo, who's utilizing the name from the classic 1980's comedy for the third straight year, which is a problem, because we're running out of Naked Gun photos to put on the site. We implore the owner to find some other screwball comedy to rip off...maybe Airplane?

Unlike the last two years, we're not seeing a tandem team of ownership here, as Darrin has left us for greener pastures, replaced by Andrew, who took an ownership stake in the squad in '07, not coincidentally with the team's rise to relevancy. This is double bad news for us: we've lost an owner who we knew and liked (though Andrew seems like a great guy, in fairness), and worse, we kept the guy who knew how to construct a team behind.

After a fine run to second place in '08, the team was forced to hemorrhage an entire outfield, perennial stud Miguel Cabrera, Ben Sheets to the world of operating rooms, and something named Cha Seung Baek. How did they respond to this part-reconstruction, part retooling?

Infield

How well you grade this infield is contingent on how much you buy into two propositions: the fluke year, and the contract year. Hanley Ramirez and Russell Martin form as solid a core as you'll find in an infield. It's the other three positions that give pause, as all have a large variance. Dan Uggla matched his 33 HRs last year with as many errors during the All-Star Game. It's tough to tell if he's a break out star or last year was a bonafide fluke for the former Rule 5 pick. Adrian Beltre has previously shown that he only gives a crap when his contract is up, and guess what? It's his walk year! Carlos Delgado is, on his best day, a shade above fantasy replacement level for a 1B....but he's playing for a new contract...but he's about 40 years old...you see where this is going. We'll grade this fairly high on the power level, with the note that it could also crater pretty quickly with little in the way of reserves to cushion the blow.

Outfield

Half of the battle in fantasy sports is taking the proper perspective and forecast on players, which is great during drafts, but a bit problematic in previews. Because with the exception of Andre Ethier, this outfield is populated with guys who I don't like this year. Johnny Damon's sole assets are in R and SB's, and I'm of the opinion his wheels are about to fall off. If you put aside Magglio!'s hit-driven OBP spike in 2007, you have a third outfielder. In other words, you have Raul Ibanez...a solid citizen, but nothing more than that. Can't say this is a strength for this team.

Starting Pitching

To counter the hitting which is somewhat variable and suspect, we have a staff that boasts Sabathia, Peavy, Cole Hamels, and Dick Harden as its top 4 starters. I haven't reviewed the other teams' rosters in full, but if anyone is topping this, or has topped this in prior years, I'd be stunned. One caution: injury potential abound on this squad.

Relievers

Kerry Wood and a prayer. Seriously, that's about it. Saito will give valuable pen work in Boston, but seriously, that's it. They're probably trying to waiver-wire-grab some closers, but the only squad their currently ahead of in relief is mine.

Prognosis

The starters are good enough that the team can probably write in 20-24 points in W's and K's, not to mention being more than competitive in the rate categories, and the infield will keep them competitive. However, the preseason look indicates that this perennial contender is a player or two shy of the top this year, which isn't a total surprise given that they had to deal some picks to make a run at it last year. That said, there's some good chips here to trade come June/July if the team is in contention, which would surprise nobody.

Can the Leader be Caught?

We're down to the homestretch of the season, and for all practical purposes, we're down to three teams with a chance to win it all. Which lends the question, besides why your humble author is guilty of putting up pictures that are relevant only for entertainment purposes: while It's Enrico Palazzo has held the lead for over two months now, does anyone have a realistic chance to catch them? Let's start with the standings as of September 11:

It's Enrico Palazzo-----91.5
Le Dupont Torkies-------85
Hand Banana------------84

To do this somewhat analytically, let's start by looking at each of the two challengers to the top spot and see if they can make up the necessary ground.

Hand Banana: As noted somewhat in my mid-season review, the talent on this squad has pulled through, leaving them in a nice 3rd place spot and in striking distance of the lead. They're currently in first place in R and RBI, making any gains there literally impossible. They're in second place in SBs and about 45 behind the leader, meaning they've maxed out their gain there as well. They're 5 HRs behind Jon for 2nd place in dingers, but only 3 ahead of the 4th place squad. At best this is a wash for also no gain. Which leaves OBP, where they're 0.001 behind two squads tied for 4th place. Seems easy, right? Well, maybe. Given the fact that they're already had roughly 5000 PAs for the season, the team would need to have a collective OBP of .377 for the rest of the season to make a jump of 2 points. That's a lot to ask. So let's split the difference and say they gain 1 spot here. Offensive gain: +1 point.

On the pitching side of the ledger, this squad is pretty much locked into their slots on Saves and ERA. They're only 7 K's behind Sexy Rexy, but he's still throwing heat daily with Oliver!, Snell, Halladay, Zito and some nice relievers. They'll be lucky to make up that point. They're tied with Jon in the Wins department, and his starters have given up on the year, so give them the half point here. The team two wins ahead of them, Tessio's Revenge, just lost Bonderman for the year and has Noah Lowry as their best starter, so let's even say they catch them for 5th place and another gain. Which leaves the amorphous and unpredictable category of WHIP, where we find this squad tied with our Newcomer for 9th and a hundredth of a point behind the next team. To drop that point would require a WHIP of 1.25 for the rest of the season---not impossible, but not exactly something you can bank on the way this team's pitching has been all year. Let's be nice and give them a half point for breaking the tie. Pitching gain: +2 points

Final tally--Hand Banana, 87 points, 89 if everything breaks well.

Le Dupont Torkies: We now come to our defending champs, who have had a rollercoaster year. Have they peaked? Maybe. They have zero shot of gaining a point in runs and are going nowhere in OBP, but are a mere RBI behind Hand Banana for the top spot, that's a placing they could gain. They're 4 SBs from gaining a deuce in steals; if they don't get these, you can point directly to the Utley injury as the straw that ruined this team's year. Still, I like them to make up that ground in the last month. Infinitely more intriguing is the fact that they're a homer behind both IEP! and Tessio, who are tied at 169 dingers. Given they've got the best dinger-ific lineup of the troika, I like them to gain both points here. Offensive gain: +3 points.

That's it for the good news, because if you're inclined, take a look at the pitching side of the ledger. There are NO places for this team to go up, and a small chance they'll lose a point here. We'll just call it a wash and call it a day.

Final tally---Le Dupont Torkies: 88 points, 90 points if all breaks correctly.

Which means that as currently constituted, both squads are going to need IEP to regress a little bit. Can this be done? Let's break it down by each category:

Runs: The team below them trails them by 48 runs. Nope.
HR: As mentioned, they're tied with Ironhead and a dinger ahead of the Torkies. They could lose 1 1/2 points here, they could gain a 1/2 point here. Let's say they lose 1/2 a point to be safe and argumentative.
RBI: Jake could catch them for a spot, as he's only 5 behind. However, he's rightfully celebrating the birth of his beautiful new child, so that's just not gonna happen.
SB: Jose Reyes has a better chance of coughing up his title than IEP.
OBP: Not happening. At worst, we're looking at -1 1/2 on offense, and less is likely.

Wins: Nope.
Saves: Nope.
ERA: Nope.
WHIP: Nope.
K's: There's an outside chance Alex re-rallies from his amazingly disappointing second half and snares a point here. That's wishcasting a bit though. I like no change here either.

Final Tally: 90 points, at worst, we're looking at 88.5 here.

So what's the ultimate conclusion? The leaders are in great shape, but have clinched nothing. The defending champs are still in it, but need some help. Hand Banana (the '05 champs), need double help--not only to have things break well for them, but for both teams in front of them to regress. I'd call it unlikely, but not impossible.

All in all, it actually means for a change we have a September that's meaningful in the league for the race to win it all, which has been a rarity to date. How refreshing.

Why It's Enrico Palazzo is in First Place

I was checking our old draft board regarding a player's eligibility, and immediately learned why IEP! is in first place. Here are their picks for this year's draft, in the 5th slot every round:

1. Jake Peavy
2. Gary Sheffield
3. Chien-Ming Wang
4. Saito
5. Jose Contreras
6. Mike Cuddyer
7. Russ Martin
8. Octavio Dotel
9. Matt Lindstrom
10. Joe Blanton
11. David Weathers
12. Hank Blalock
13. Eric Byrnes
14. Adam LaRoche
15. Scott Linebrink

That, kids, is a fantastic set of picks. The first 3 have all be nothing shy of studs all year; Saito and Weathers have contributed as closers; Martin was possibly the best pick value-wise in the 7th round, and Blanton and Byrnes have been quite quite good as well. Having a strong keeper list didn't hurt, but man, when you draft that well, it's sometimes that easy.

Season Preview: It's Enrico Palazzo

Team It's Enrico Palazzo

[ed. note--The editor in me is dying to tack a "!" on to the team name, but I'm just going to have a beer instead.]

Yes indeed, it is Enrico Palazzo, another of the many teams in this league named after characters from '80's screwball comedies. The trend (which admittedly includes me) has pushed the league as a whole right up against that line between "Hipsters Showing Off Wacky Pop-Culture Knowledge" and "Basement-Dwelling Junior High Power-Dorks". The first guy to reference Tolkien, or Dungeons & Dragons--any elf-intensive medium, really--is going to tip the balance in the wrong direction. So be careful out there, people.

Skipping lightly over that, IEP(!) are one of the set of 5-6 or potential runners this season. They're one of about 4 teams who'll be competing for the top offensive slots, and, like most of those teams, they've basically bought themselves a lottery ticket on the pitching side. The main problem here isn't really the quality of players on the roster, but rather the allocation of those players across the starting lineup.

Infield

Here's the prime example of what I mean: IEP(!) is starting Hanley Ramirez and Michael Young, who look to be 2 of the best 4-5 fantasy shortstops in baseball this season. Problem is, there's only one starting SS slot. The other guy is going to get plugged in at UTIL. While each of Ramirez and Young are worth playing, they lose a lot of their value when they're played out of position--a rotating cast of other players could have provide the same value at less cost in the draft.

Of course, either Ramirez or Young would make fun trade bait, so it's premature to criticize--the possibility is certainly there for the proverbial trade that helps both teams. If IEP(!) could turn one of those two into a real closer and some other goodies, they might have the same aggregate talent, but a better shot at racking up points across all categories.

Outfield

The team has hitched his wagons pretty decisively to the Blue Jays' bandwagon here, starting both Vernon Wells and Alex Rios. Rios got about 85% of the way to breaking out last year before being slowed by an infected leg. Senor Palazzo appears to be hoping that the season Rios will finish what he started last year. Beyond that there's what's left of Gary Sheffield, who is moving to a pitchers' park this season. I'm of the opinion that Sheffield will have a bounce-back season, as he strikes me as the kind of guy who will channel his rage at the Yankees into better performances at the plate. Might want to keep him off first base, though. Also, just for public safety reasons, they might want to keep him away from small children. And old people. And fans. And most forms of plant life.

Pitching

Well, Jake Peavy is pretty awesome, and C.C. Sabathia had a great under-the-radar season last year. After that, things get iffy. There's the good pitcher who doesn't strike anyone out (Chien-Ming Wang), the bad pitcher who doesn't strike anyone out (Jeremy Sowers), and the 50 year-old Cuban guy (Jose Contreras--though he's better than fellow 50 year-old Cuban Livan Hernandez if only because Contreras doesn't yet have an arthritic neck).
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at right: Jose Contreras's great-grandson, Steve.
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Also, any time Stormy Weathers is your #2 closer, your plan can't be to punt SPs and rely on your bullpen guys to carry the day in ERA and WHIP. The team needs Sowers and fellow young "gun" Cole Hamels to come up pretty big, otherwise this team will be rummaging around in the Jamie Moyer/Woody Williams scrap heap pretty quickly.

Prognosis: Close, but no cigar--without a trade for some pitching.