We’re not going to lie to you; none of these games have much in the way of curb appeal. But half the fun of the World Cup is watching some random group match turn into a classic, and the second set of group games has been fun thus far. Cross your fingers.
Netherlands v. Japan (Group E, 7:30 AM ET)
We can’t even muster a witty one-sentence preview for this one. Frankly, the Dutch should run the Japanese team off the field on talent alone. But Japan won’t beat themselves, and will undoubtedly come out in a defensive shell in an attempt to steal the 4th group point that could see them through. The Dutch will spend a fair amount of time dithering around trying to break through, and probably will do so. Not much to say beyond that.
Prediction: Netherlands 2-0 Japan
Ghana v. Australia (Group D, 10 AM)
Here, by contrast, both teams will probably play for the win in what has turned into a wide-open group following Germany’s surprise loss to Serbia. Ghana stole a win from Serbia in round one, and could take control of the group with another win here. The Ghanaians didn’t show a ton coming forward in that first match, but might not need to against an Australian team that looked like they’d just met for the first time about 15 minutes before getting pasted by Germany. Australia also lost their best player, Tim Cahill, to a red card, meaning he’ll be suspended for this match. Like Germany, Ghana have a bunch of athletic midfielders who the Australian defense will struggle to contain. Ghana lack Germany’s touch in front of goal, so another 4-0 nightmare is unlikely. But it’s a long way back for Australia.
Prediction: Ghana 2-1 Australia
Cameroon v. Denmark (Group E, 2:30 PM)
Although it was overshadowed a bit by the poor showings of big-name countries like Spain and France, Cameroon were one of the real disappointments of the first round. Almost any team with Samuel Eto’o should beat Japan, but Cameroon never really got into the game. Denmark were predictably boring against the Netherlands, rolling up into a defensive posture that worked right up until they conceded an own goal out of nowhere. Expect more defense-first thinking here, because Denmark could very well reason that Cameroon won’t be able to unlock them like the Netherlands did, and won’t want to get into a run-and-gun style game with Cameroon’s athletic attackers.
Prediction: 1-1
Friday, June 18, 2010
Thursday, June 17, 2010
World Cup Tomorrow: Friday, June 18th
Stat of the tournament to date: North Korea and New Zealand are currently outscoring Spain, Portugal, and Cote d'Ivoire. Hope somebody out there had some money on that bet. In any event, tomorrow’s games feature an echo of WWII, a likely whitewashing, and the biggest game of the WC for the USA.
Germany v. Serbia (Group D, 7:30 AM ET)
One-sentence preview: Don’t say anything that even sounds like “Ustazi”
Germany were the tournament’s high scorer in the first round of games, courtesy of a combination of calm finishing and hilariously bad defense and bad judgment by Australia (did we not warn you about Tim Cahill? We warned you about Tim Cahill.) Germany got yet another goal from Miloslav Klose who has now scored only one fewer career World Cup goal than Pele, despite not being any good. I can’t even think of an equivalent in US sports; maybe Robert Horry, or Eli Manning if he wins another Super Bowl. Anyway, the Germans appear to be in mid-tournament form, which is bad news for their opponents.
Serbia were a bit of a trendy pick coming in, but were upset in their first game after they conceded a penalty kick on an absolutely ridiculous handball. They’re now up against it, because if they lose here they’ll need absolutely everything to break their way in order to get out of the group. They’re better than they showed, but will have to jump up about three levels to get a point off the Germans. Given the Serbs notoriously long historical memories, maybe they’ll draw inspiration from Germany’s occupation of Serbia during WWII (note: we would not want to be a Croat at this match). But it’s more likely that they’ll be worn down by this young, confident German team.
Prediction: Germany 2-1 Serbia
USA-Slovenia (Group C, 10AM)
One sentence preview: USA-England was the drive for show; USA-Slovenia is the putt for dough
It’s a little tough to know what to think about the USA’s result against England. We were unimpressed with the USA defenders (especially Oguchi Onyewu, who was repeatedly drawn out of position), and their goal was clearly down more to England’s two-decade long inability to produce a goalkeeper than to any skill by Clint Dempsey. But the midfield was generally good—England had real trouble moving the ball forward in rhythm, and the USA looked more composed than usual over the ball.
The only real midfield failure came from Ricardo Clark. Clark was in there for his athletic gifts, but looked lost, especially early. Against Slovenia, the US would be well served to bench Clark and put in Jose Torres, a much smaller player with much better passing ability. They also might want to make similar change up front, benching the fast but stone-footed Robbie Findley for the slower but more clinical Edson Buddle. The US had to withstand England; they’ll have to unlock Slovenia.
Slovenia looked for all the world like they were on their way to a lousy draw in their first game when Algeria managed to self-destruct and hand them the three points. As expected, Slovenia looked good at the back, with only wide runs by Nadir Belhadj really causing any problems. Landon Donovan and Clint Dempsey came inside a lot against England, but it looks like they’ll have to stay further out to be effective against a defensive-minded Slovenia team. Working against the US is the fact that a draw suits Slovenia just fine; we think Slovenia are willing to risk going into the last round against England looking for 1 point and forcing the US to beat Algeria.
Prediction: USA 2-1 Slovenia. At this point, we’re just budgeting in a terrible early goal allowed by the US. That will mean a nervous 60 minutes or so, but we believe.
England v. Algeria (2:30 PM, Group C)
One-sentence preview: This is going to go exactly how you think it will.
Yes, England looked a little discombobulated on Saturday. Yes, Robert Green was terrible (in addition to The Miss, he should have done better with Jozy Altidore’s second-half breakaway—he got lucky and sort of muffed it onto the post). And yes, Wayne Rooney was strangely uninvolved, probably because the midfield of Steven Gerrard and Frank Lampard aren’t used to playing with possession-heavy forwards. But Algeria just dissolved. Their goalkeeper let up a goal that was 80% as bad as Green’s, and their leading scorer from qualifying ate a red card, meaning he’s suspended for this match. Everyone thought this was a mismatch coming in, and one bad goal doesn’t change that.
Prediction: England 3-0 Algeria
Germany v. Serbia (Group D, 7:30 AM ET)
One-sentence preview: Don’t say anything that even sounds like “Ustazi”
Germany were the tournament’s high scorer in the first round of games, courtesy of a combination of calm finishing and hilariously bad defense and bad judgment by Australia (did we not warn you about Tim Cahill? We warned you about Tim Cahill.) Germany got yet another goal from Miloslav Klose who has now scored only one fewer career World Cup goal than Pele, despite not being any good. I can’t even think of an equivalent in US sports; maybe Robert Horry, or Eli Manning if he wins another Super Bowl. Anyway, the Germans appear to be in mid-tournament form, which is bad news for their opponents.
Serbia were a bit of a trendy pick coming in, but were upset in their first game after they conceded a penalty kick on an absolutely ridiculous handball. They’re now up against it, because if they lose here they’ll need absolutely everything to break their way in order to get out of the group. They’re better than they showed, but will have to jump up about three levels to get a point off the Germans. Given the Serbs notoriously long historical memories, maybe they’ll draw inspiration from Germany’s occupation of Serbia during WWII (note: we would not want to be a Croat at this match). But it’s more likely that they’ll be worn down by this young, confident German team.
Prediction: Germany 2-1 Serbia
USA-Slovenia (Group C, 10AM)
One sentence preview: USA-England was the drive for show; USA-Slovenia is the putt for dough
It’s a little tough to know what to think about the USA’s result against England. We were unimpressed with the USA defenders (especially Oguchi Onyewu, who was repeatedly drawn out of position), and their goal was clearly down more to England’s two-decade long inability to produce a goalkeeper than to any skill by Clint Dempsey. But the midfield was generally good—England had real trouble moving the ball forward in rhythm, and the USA looked more composed than usual over the ball.
The only real midfield failure came from Ricardo Clark. Clark was in there for his athletic gifts, but looked lost, especially early. Against Slovenia, the US would be well served to bench Clark and put in Jose Torres, a much smaller player with much better passing ability. They also might want to make similar change up front, benching the fast but stone-footed Robbie Findley for the slower but more clinical Edson Buddle. The US had to withstand England; they’ll have to unlock Slovenia.
Slovenia looked for all the world like they were on their way to a lousy draw in their first game when Algeria managed to self-destruct and hand them the three points. As expected, Slovenia looked good at the back, with only wide runs by Nadir Belhadj really causing any problems. Landon Donovan and Clint Dempsey came inside a lot against England, but it looks like they’ll have to stay further out to be effective against a defensive-minded Slovenia team. Working against the US is the fact that a draw suits Slovenia just fine; we think Slovenia are willing to risk going into the last round against England looking for 1 point and forcing the US to beat Algeria.
Prediction: USA 2-1 Slovenia. At this point, we’re just budgeting in a terrible early goal allowed by the US. That will mean a nervous 60 minutes or so, but we believe.
England v. Algeria (2:30 PM, Group C)
One-sentence preview: This is going to go exactly how you think it will.
Yes, England looked a little discombobulated on Saturday. Yes, Robert Green was terrible (in addition to The Miss, he should have done better with Jozy Altidore’s second-half breakaway—he got lucky and sort of muffed it onto the post). And yes, Wayne Rooney was strangely uninvolved, probably because the midfield of Steven Gerrard and Frank Lampard aren’t used to playing with possession-heavy forwards. But Algeria just dissolved. Their goalkeeper let up a goal that was 80% as bad as Green’s, and their leading scorer from qualifying ate a red card, meaning he’s suspended for this match. Everyone thought this was a mismatch coming in, and one bad goal doesn’t change that.
Prediction: England 3-0 Algeria
Wednesday, June 16, 2010
World Cup Tomorrow: Thursday, June 17th
The second set of group games begin in earnest, and give us an entertaining match-up, another look at the host team, and crucial match between two teams that find themselves at risk of an unexpectedly early exit.
Argentina v. South Korea (Group B, 7:30 AM ET)
Yum! Only a very few teams managed to score multiple goals in the first round, and of those South Korea might have been the most unexpected. The Koreans looked really good, keeping a bigger Greece squad at bay and showing real quality in the attacking areas of midfield. They even got a really nice strike out of captain Park Ji-Sung, which might mean that our dire prediction about their abilities in front of goal might be overstated. Because South Korea are currently ahead on goal difference, even a draw here gives them the inside track to winning the group. This is more or less a free roll for them, which makes them dangerous.
In our first round preview, we identified two big questions for Argentina: (1) could Lionel Messi bring it for Argentina the way he has for Barcelona; and (2) did Juan Sebastian Veron have enough left in the tank to act as Argentina’s midfield engine. Question #1 was answered with a pretty emphatic “yes”. Messi didn’t score, but he was a constant danger and looked like the sort of one-man wrecking crew he so often was in La Liga this year.
Question #2…well, that answer was considerably more equivocal. Veron played so-so, and was substituted off after about 70 minutes. His performance might be excused by the fact that Nigeria played an up-and-down game that didn’t really lend itself to a composed midfield performance—the game alternated stretches of wingers going off to the races with stretches of unsuccessful long balls. Veron will be needed more against South Korea, who will look to press the ball more and are better organized at the back. Someone will have to get the ball to the attacking talent in the right place, and we’re still not sure Veron is that guy.
Prediction: Argentina 2-2 South Korea. Must see.
Greece v. Nigeria (Group B, 10AM)
Woof. Greece looked absolutely terrible against South Korea. The lack of offense wasn’t a surprise, but the lack of organization at the back very much was. If these guys aren’t at the top of their game tactically, their lack of talent will lead to a series of woodshed beatings. One such beating is already in the can; another seems likely to follow against Argentina. This is Greece’s best chance to get its first-ever World Cup point.
We sort of don’t know how to feel about Nigeria. On the one hand, it’s not really surprising for a team to look bad playing against Argentina. On the other, nobody besides goalkeeper Vincent Enyeama looked much good at all. For all their terrible play against South Korea, you’d have to figure that Greece will reorganize to the point that Nigeria will have to do something special to unlock them. Right now, it’s unclear where that something special will come from.
Prediction: 0-0. Must not see.
France v. Mexico (Group A, 2:30 PM)
Both teams are undoubtedly disappointed by their first round ties. The difference is that France must also be disappointed about their level of play, whereas Mexico are likely just frustrated that their advantage in possession didn’t translate into a win.
So, let’s see. France never really threatened a dull Uruguay team. One of their better attacking players (Florent Malouda) was benched because of some unspecified conflict with the team’s super-flake coach, “Everybody Hates” Raymond Domenech, who learned just before coming to the World Cup that he has already been fired as of the end of the tournament. And the locker room might be split over who should be captain. So, off to a good start for Les Bleus. They really are much better than they’ve shown recently, but at this point, you’d have to think that entropy has taken over. It’s getting eerily 2002 in here.
Mexico, on the other hand, played pretty well against a fired up South African team, and was slightly unlucky not to win. They looked great in the middle 80% of the field, but showed a little bit of weakness up front and at the back. If you want to worry about Mexico, worry that this is becoming a pattern—they’ve outplayed their result more than once over the WC and warm-up season. So this might not be bad luck (or not only bad luck), but a sign that the team isn’t quite connecting up enough to get them over the top. For this match, watch whichever of Carlos Vela or Gio Dos Santos gets matched up against whichever stopgap plays in the right side of France’s defense.
Prediction: Mexico 2-0 France. We think the Mexicans put it together.
Argentina v. South Korea (Group B, 7:30 AM ET)
Yum! Only a very few teams managed to score multiple goals in the first round, and of those South Korea might have been the most unexpected. The Koreans looked really good, keeping a bigger Greece squad at bay and showing real quality in the attacking areas of midfield. They even got a really nice strike out of captain Park Ji-Sung, which might mean that our dire prediction about their abilities in front of goal might be overstated. Because South Korea are currently ahead on goal difference, even a draw here gives them the inside track to winning the group. This is more or less a free roll for them, which makes them dangerous.
In our first round preview, we identified two big questions for Argentina: (1) could Lionel Messi bring it for Argentina the way he has for Barcelona; and (2) did Juan Sebastian Veron have enough left in the tank to act as Argentina’s midfield engine. Question #1 was answered with a pretty emphatic “yes”. Messi didn’t score, but he was a constant danger and looked like the sort of one-man wrecking crew he so often was in La Liga this year.
Question #2…well, that answer was considerably more equivocal. Veron played so-so, and was substituted off after about 70 minutes. His performance might be excused by the fact that Nigeria played an up-and-down game that didn’t really lend itself to a composed midfield performance—the game alternated stretches of wingers going off to the races with stretches of unsuccessful long balls. Veron will be needed more against South Korea, who will look to press the ball more and are better organized at the back. Someone will have to get the ball to the attacking talent in the right place, and we’re still not sure Veron is that guy.
Prediction: Argentina 2-2 South Korea. Must see.
Greece v. Nigeria (Group B, 10AM)
Woof. Greece looked absolutely terrible against South Korea. The lack of offense wasn’t a surprise, but the lack of organization at the back very much was. If these guys aren’t at the top of their game tactically, their lack of talent will lead to a series of woodshed beatings. One such beating is already in the can; another seems likely to follow against Argentina. This is Greece’s best chance to get its first-ever World Cup point.
We sort of don’t know how to feel about Nigeria. On the one hand, it’s not really surprising for a team to look bad playing against Argentina. On the other, nobody besides goalkeeper Vincent Enyeama looked much good at all. For all their terrible play against South Korea, you’d have to figure that Greece will reorganize to the point that Nigeria will have to do something special to unlock them. Right now, it’s unclear where that something special will come from.
Prediction: 0-0. Must not see.
France v. Mexico (Group A, 2:30 PM)
Both teams are undoubtedly disappointed by their first round ties. The difference is that France must also be disappointed about their level of play, whereas Mexico are likely just frustrated that their advantage in possession didn’t translate into a win.
So, let’s see. France never really threatened a dull Uruguay team. One of their better attacking players (Florent Malouda) was benched because of some unspecified conflict with the team’s super-flake coach, “Everybody Hates” Raymond Domenech, who learned just before coming to the World Cup that he has already been fired as of the end of the tournament. And the locker room might be split over who should be captain. So, off to a good start for Les Bleus. They really are much better than they’ve shown recently, but at this point, you’d have to think that entropy has taken over. It’s getting eerily 2002 in here.
Mexico, on the other hand, played pretty well against a fired up South African team, and was slightly unlucky not to win. They looked great in the middle 80% of the field, but showed a little bit of weakness up front and at the back. If you want to worry about Mexico, worry that this is becoming a pattern—they’ve outplayed their result more than once over the WC and warm-up season. So this might not be bad luck (or not only bad luck), but a sign that the team isn’t quite connecting up enough to get them over the top. For this match, watch whichever of Carlos Vela or Gio Dos Santos gets matched up against whichever stopgap plays in the right side of France’s defense.
Prediction: Mexico 2-0 France. We think the Mexicans put it together.
Tuesday, June 15, 2010
World Cup Tomorrow: Wednesday, June 16th
Edit June 16th: ESPN.com gave me a bum steer on the schedule. The second set of games actually starts this afternoon, with South Africa v. Uruguay. It's a little late for a full preview, but we'll go on record with a prediction of 1-1.
Back down to two games tomorrow, as the first set of group matches wrap up. The second set are usually the best, as they feature the highest percentage of games where both teams are playing for the win, so look for things to pick up starting Thursday.
Honduras v. Chile (Group H, 7:30 AM ET)
One-sentence preview: A game unlikely to mark the turning point in what has been a lackluster first round to date.
Honduras might be the most forgettable team in this year’s World Cup. New Zealand are worse but cuter; North Korea are worse but are North Korea. Honduras are merely the third qualifying team from a region that only goes two teams deep (Mexico and the US). They come in on the back of an 0-2-2 warm up campaign, with draws against Belarus and Azerbaijan (really) and losses to Venezuela and Romania. None of those four teams were good enough to make the Cup. So…yeah. Oddly, their strength is probably up front, where Carlos Pavon and David Suazo are both grizzled vets with experience playing in the trenches of the Italian Serie A.
Chile, on the other hand, were picked by ZonalMarking.net as maybe the most tactically interesting team in the tournament. They play a moderately wacky 3-3-1-3 formation that is designed to spread the field and put unusual pressure on their opponents as they try to bring the ball out of their own half. A talented team can take advantage of this by finding space in behind the pressure. Fortunately for Chile, they’re not playing a talented team; they’re playing Honduras. The team impressed during South American qualifying, finishing second behind Brazil, and played OK in warm-up matches (0-1 at Mexico’s impregnable Azteca Stadium; 3-0 and 1-0 over minnows Zambia and Ulster). One thing to keep an eye on is set pieces, because this is not a very big team.
Prediction: Chile 1-0 Honduras
Spain v. Switzerland (Group H, 10AM ET)
Spain are all kinds of fun. No matter how they structure their side, they’re going to end up leaving at least one world-class player on the bench (for this match, probably either the banged-up Andres Iniesta of Barcelona or Cesc Fabregas of Arsenal). They have great strikers up front in David Villa and Francisco Torres, and maybe the world’s most accurate passer in Xavi. They have multiple solid keepers. They go 5 deep on defense. And, most impressively, they have lost exactly once in the past three years (to the USA at last year’s Confederations Cup). If you’re looking for flaws, they were a little underwhelming in warm-up matches against Saudi Arabia (3-2) and South Korea (1-0), and also have a bunch of guys at about 80% health. Doesn’t matter; they’re still fun.
Switzerland, well, who knows. Last year was probably the best year in Swiss soccer history, as they breezed through World Cup qualifying and won the Youth World Cup, beating Nigeria in the final. But they’ve looked very, very mediocre this year, losing 1-3 to Uruguay, 0-1 to Costa Rica, and drawing a tired Italy team 1-1 at home. Keep an eye on striker Hakan Yakin because, well, come on. That’s an awesome name.
Prediction: Spain 2-1 Switzerland. Spain aren’t quite at their best yet, but don’t need to be.
Back down to two games tomorrow, as the first set of group matches wrap up. The second set are usually the best, as they feature the highest percentage of games where both teams are playing for the win, so look for things to pick up starting Thursday.
Honduras v. Chile (Group H, 7:30 AM ET)
One-sentence preview: A game unlikely to mark the turning point in what has been a lackluster first round to date.
Honduras might be the most forgettable team in this year’s World Cup. New Zealand are worse but cuter; North Korea are worse but are North Korea. Honduras are merely the third qualifying team from a region that only goes two teams deep (Mexico and the US). They come in on the back of an 0-2-2 warm up campaign, with draws against Belarus and Azerbaijan (really) and losses to Venezuela and Romania. None of those four teams were good enough to make the Cup. So…yeah. Oddly, their strength is probably up front, where Carlos Pavon and David Suazo are both grizzled vets with experience playing in the trenches of the Italian Serie A.
Chile, on the other hand, were picked by ZonalMarking.net as maybe the most tactically interesting team in the tournament. They play a moderately wacky 3-3-1-3 formation that is designed to spread the field and put unusual pressure on their opponents as they try to bring the ball out of their own half. A talented team can take advantage of this by finding space in behind the pressure. Fortunately for Chile, they’re not playing a talented team; they’re playing Honduras. The team impressed during South American qualifying, finishing second behind Brazil, and played OK in warm-up matches (0-1 at Mexico’s impregnable Azteca Stadium; 3-0 and 1-0 over minnows Zambia and Ulster). One thing to keep an eye on is set pieces, because this is not a very big team.
Prediction: Chile 1-0 Honduras
Spain v. Switzerland (Group H, 10AM ET)
Spain are all kinds of fun. No matter how they structure their side, they’re going to end up leaving at least one world-class player on the bench (for this match, probably either the banged-up Andres Iniesta of Barcelona or Cesc Fabregas of Arsenal). They have great strikers up front in David Villa and Francisco Torres, and maybe the world’s most accurate passer in Xavi. They have multiple solid keepers. They go 5 deep on defense. And, most impressively, they have lost exactly once in the past three years (to the USA at last year’s Confederations Cup). If you’re looking for flaws, they were a little underwhelming in warm-up matches against Saudi Arabia (3-2) and South Korea (1-0), and also have a bunch of guys at about 80% health. Doesn’t matter; they’re still fun.
Switzerland, well, who knows. Last year was probably the best year in Swiss soccer history, as they breezed through World Cup qualifying and won the Youth World Cup, beating Nigeria in the final. But they’ve looked very, very mediocre this year, losing 1-3 to Uruguay, 0-1 to Costa Rica, and drawing a tired Italy team 1-1 at home. Keep an eye on striker Hakan Yakin because, well, come on. That’s an awesome name.
Prediction: Spain 2-1 Switzerland. Spain aren’t quite at their best yet, but don’t need to be.
Monday, June 14, 2010
World Cup Tomorrow: Tuesday, June 15th
Heat check: how are we actually doing at predicting these games? Well, so far we’re 7-for-10 at predicting results, and have called the exact scoreline twice. Not bad, if we do say so ourselves.
New Zealand v. Slovakia (Group F, 7:30 AM ET)
One-sentence preview: One of the contenders for the worst match of the competition (though we lean more towards Honduras-Switzerland ourselves).
New Zealand are here for the first time in almost 30 years, and feature a roster that includes an amateur who holds down a day job as a banker (Andy Barron), and (presumably) several sheep. But they also feature a guy who plays in the English Premier League (D Ryan Nelsen), and come in on a bit of a weird roll, having beaten Serbia and lost narrowly away to Australia in warm-ups. They will try hard. But, then, so did Australia, and see how far that got them.
Slovakia have more top-end players, especially D Martin Skrtl and M Vladimir Weiss (who is an English club teammate of New Zealand’s Nelsen). They finished at the top of their Central Europe-heavy qualifying group, satisfyingly keeping their old friends the Czech Republic out of the tournament along the way. They will try hard. One thing to watch: Slovakia weirdly both scored and allowed a lot of goals during qualifying, so there is the chance that this will turn into a sloppy shootout.
Prediction: Slovakia 1-0 New Zealand. Nope.
Ivory Coast v. Portugal (Group G, 10 AM)
One-sentence preview: Injuries take the air out of an otherwise fascinating Group of Death matchup.
Unfortunately, this game is as much about those who won’t be there as it is those who will. Ivory Coast were to have been led by Chelsea’s Randy Moss clone, F Didier Drogba, who has a fantastic knack for scoring goals in big English tournament games. Sadly, Drogna broke his arm in a friendly, and likey is out for the group stage (though he continues to maintain that he’ll make it back). In his absence, the team can still look to multiple players from Europe’s best leagues, including brothers Yaya and Kolo Toure, F Salomon Kalou, and D Emmaunel Eboue. While there’s still plenty of talen on hand, what’s a little uncertain now is whether the team can unlock a top-level defense in the absence of the one-man wrecking crew that is Drogba.
Bad luck, then, that the depleted Ivorians have drawn Portugal in the first round. Portugal have an extremely experienced defense, led by Drogba’s Chelsea teammate Ricardo Carvalho and the World’s Biggest Portagee, 6’2” FC Porto D Bruno Alves. Up front, it’s all about former world player of the year Cristiano Ronaldo, who’ll need to provide most of the offense for a team that’s always light on strikers. Portugal’s already limited offense took a hit recently, when Man U winger Nani went down with a collarbone injury. Nani could have given the team a much-needed wide attacking option that would have let Ronaldo act as more of an outright striker. Now, Ronaldo’s going to have to both create and finish the goals, which might be too much even for him.
Prediction: Portugal 0-0 Ivory Coast. Nobody wants to slip up early behind group favorites Brazil. This result means that the group’s second qualification place will come down to whoever beats North Korea the worst.
Brazil v. North Korea (2:30 PM, Group G)
One-sentence preview: Honest to God, this match is going to be close for a while.
On the one hand, this Brazil team is quintessential Brazil: they’re one of the favorites to win the World Cup, and have more talent than any other team (with the possible exception of Spain). On the other hand, this Brazil team is about as un-Brazilian as possible. Based on their form during the most recent club year, you can make the case that their three best players nominally operate in the defensive half of the field (Inter Milan GK Julio Cesar, Barcelona D Dani Alves, and Inter Milan D Maicon). With Kaka coming off a lousy year, Robinho having bombed out of European club football, and Ronaldinho having failed to even make the team, there is no obvious attacking fulcrum. Instead, this Brazil team can turn defense into offense faster and better than any other team in the world, with everyone up to and including the central defenders being capable of getting forward and scoring. This Brazil team will win less with flair than they will with toughness and overwhelming athleticism.
North Korea…well, nobody has any idea. They appear to have surprisingly decent finisher in Hong Yong-Jo, but that doesn’t matter in this game because he’ll never see the ball.
The reasons we see this game as being close initially are that (1) Brazil want to counter attack, but (2) North Korea are going to construct a derelict heavy machinery factory in front of their own goal and basically not leave their own end. You can’t counterattack if the other team never crosses midfield. It will take time for Brazil to break them down.
Prediction: Brazil 2-0 North Korea. Tied at halftime, though (and we bet the odds on a scoreless first half will be juicy).
New Zealand v. Slovakia (Group F, 7:30 AM ET)
One-sentence preview: One of the contenders for the worst match of the competition (though we lean more towards Honduras-Switzerland ourselves).
New Zealand are here for the first time in almost 30 years, and feature a roster that includes an amateur who holds down a day job as a banker (Andy Barron), and (presumably) several sheep. But they also feature a guy who plays in the English Premier League (D Ryan Nelsen), and come in on a bit of a weird roll, having beaten Serbia and lost narrowly away to Australia in warm-ups. They will try hard. But, then, so did Australia, and see how far that got them.
Slovakia have more top-end players, especially D Martin Skrtl and M Vladimir Weiss (who is an English club teammate of New Zealand’s Nelsen). They finished at the top of their Central Europe-heavy qualifying group, satisfyingly keeping their old friends the Czech Republic out of the tournament along the way. They will try hard. One thing to watch: Slovakia weirdly both scored and allowed a lot of goals during qualifying, so there is the chance that this will turn into a sloppy shootout.
Prediction: Slovakia 1-0 New Zealand. Nope.
Ivory Coast v. Portugal (Group G, 10 AM)
One-sentence preview: Injuries take the air out of an otherwise fascinating Group of Death matchup.
Unfortunately, this game is as much about those who won’t be there as it is those who will. Ivory Coast were to have been led by Chelsea’s Randy Moss clone, F Didier Drogba, who has a fantastic knack for scoring goals in big English tournament games. Sadly, Drogna broke his arm in a friendly, and likey is out for the group stage (though he continues to maintain that he’ll make it back). In his absence, the team can still look to multiple players from Europe’s best leagues, including brothers Yaya and Kolo Toure, F Salomon Kalou, and D Emmaunel Eboue. While there’s still plenty of talen on hand, what’s a little uncertain now is whether the team can unlock a top-level defense in the absence of the one-man wrecking crew that is Drogba.
Bad luck, then, that the depleted Ivorians have drawn Portugal in the first round. Portugal have an extremely experienced defense, led by Drogba’s Chelsea teammate Ricardo Carvalho and the World’s Biggest Portagee, 6’2” FC Porto D Bruno Alves. Up front, it’s all about former world player of the year Cristiano Ronaldo, who’ll need to provide most of the offense for a team that’s always light on strikers. Portugal’s already limited offense took a hit recently, when Man U winger Nani went down with a collarbone injury. Nani could have given the team a much-needed wide attacking option that would have let Ronaldo act as more of an outright striker. Now, Ronaldo’s going to have to both create and finish the goals, which might be too much even for him.
Prediction: Portugal 0-0 Ivory Coast. Nobody wants to slip up early behind group favorites Brazil. This result means that the group’s second qualification place will come down to whoever beats North Korea the worst.
Brazil v. North Korea (2:30 PM, Group G)
One-sentence preview: Honest to God, this match is going to be close for a while.
On the one hand, this Brazil team is quintessential Brazil: they’re one of the favorites to win the World Cup, and have more talent than any other team (with the possible exception of Spain). On the other hand, this Brazil team is about as un-Brazilian as possible. Based on their form during the most recent club year, you can make the case that their three best players nominally operate in the defensive half of the field (Inter Milan GK Julio Cesar, Barcelona D Dani Alves, and Inter Milan D Maicon). With Kaka coming off a lousy year, Robinho having bombed out of European club football, and Ronaldinho having failed to even make the team, there is no obvious attacking fulcrum. Instead, this Brazil team can turn defense into offense faster and better than any other team in the world, with everyone up to and including the central defenders being capable of getting forward and scoring. This Brazil team will win less with flair than they will with toughness and overwhelming athleticism.
North Korea…well, nobody has any idea. They appear to have surprisingly decent finisher in Hong Yong-Jo, but that doesn’t matter in this game because he’ll never see the ball.
The reasons we see this game as being close initially are that (1) Brazil want to counter attack, but (2) North Korea are going to construct a derelict heavy machinery factory in front of their own goal and basically not leave their own end. You can’t counterattack if the other team never crosses midfield. It will take time for Brazil to break them down.
Prediction: Brazil 2-0 North Korea. Tied at halftime, though (and we bet the odds on a scoreless first half will be juicy).
Transactions Analysis: The League Is Flat Edition
It's June 13, we've had 9 weeks of real and fantasy baseball, and the league has never been flatter. Our league leader has a whopping 78 points, which is fewer than the 5th place team finished with last year. Usually by this point in the year, the league has separated into Contenders, Pretenders, and Schmucks Stuck In the Middle.Instead, we we appear to have 5 groups:
Definite Contenders: Scot, Teddy, Will, Alex
Probable Contenders: Andrew, Corey
Possible Contenders: Angelo, Jake
Neither Contending Nor Out of It: Tucker, Sahil
A Member of the Elders Family: Andy, Jon
Probable Contenders: Andrew, Corey
Possible Contenders: Angelo, Jake
Neither Contending Nor Out of It: Tucker, Sahil
A Member of the Elders Family: Andy, Jon
With last week's trade, the first domino fell towards a contender making a run at the title and a team officially calling it a year. Did any of the last fortnight's transactions equally help one of the other 9 potential contenders? Let's have a look-see. (El Angelo)
It’s gratifying to see that our previews—which predicted that just about every team would be more or less ‘enh’—have been borne out by events. Surely, though, some of these bottom teams are going to start cashing in chips soon. (Teddy)
The Little Green One
Signed: Trevor Cahill (SP, OAK); Clayton Richard (SP, SD); Chris Tillman (SP, Bal); Scott Downs (RP, Tor); Alexei Ramirez (SS, CHW)
Waived: JJ Putz (RP, CHW); Daisuke Matsuzaka (SP, Bos); Gavin Floyd (SP, CHW); Downs
Traded Away: Chase Utley (2B, Phi) and Elvis Andrus (SS, Tex) to The Revenge Society
Received in Trade: Justin Smoak (1B, Tex); Stephen Strasburg (SP, Was) and The Revenge Society's 3rd round pick in the 2011 draft
There's no way to say the deal is anything but a slam dunk for the Commish's squad, so long as you agree that his team is done for this year. He traded the 37th pick in this year's draft for Chase Utley, and converted him and a waiver wire pickup to the 32nd-36th pick of next year's draft, which in and of itself is okay. To then get Super Strasburg and Justin Smoak, who I'm particularly high on, as a tax for getting Utley and Andrus is just a coup. Utley was doing nothing for this team next year, and while many are going to argue that Andrus is a burgeoning star, I see him as the 4th best player in the deal. When you're dumping, the best you can hope for is useful picks and players for the next year, and he's done it as well as can be hoped. Well played, Commish.
In other news, I also really like the pick up of Cahill, who I'm a little surprised wasn't just wiling away on someone's bench. The guy had a bad April, but he's a pretty good pitcher. (El Angelo)
Agreed on the trade. Smoak has been the unluckiest SOB in baseball this year, batting.213 despite hitting line drives in more than 25% of his ABs. Monstrousness remains on the horizon. Strasburg, well, he’s a nice guy to have for three years as well. TLG1 were helped by the fact that they had the single best player likely to be moved this year, which let them command a premium. I suspect this might actually have the effect of cooling off the trade market for a while, as the sellers fruitlessly try to replicate this haul for less elite guys. (Teddy)
The Spam Avengers
Signed: Luke Scott (1B/OF, BAL); Angel Pagan (OF, NYM)
Waived: Andrus Jones (Tubby OF, CHW)
Losing Grady Sizemore for the year and Travis Snider probably until the ASB has this team scrambling for outfielders, and they've landed on a second Oriole to join Nick Markakis and the feisty Pagan. The problem short term is that both of these players are on teams that don't score any runs--Scott has 10 dingers and a whopping 22 RBI's. Pagan's a bigger long-term problem because when Carlos Beltran returns he'll be glued back to the bench given Jerry Manuel's ongoing fascination with Jeff Francoeur, a.k.a., The Human Out Machine. I'd criticize them more for pickups that aren't particularly inspired, but the pool of available outfielders is amazingly poor; the top players available include Juan Rivera, who can't get on base, Austin Kearns, who's an older Luke Scott, and...Jeff Francoeur. Blech. (El Angelo)
Yeah, OF gets shallow in a hurry this year, though TSA has the luxury of being able to shop for OFs who have specific skills, because the rest of his roster is good enough to handle it. BTW, we’re (kind of ) tracking weekly standings in the league this year, and the graph of this team’s season looks like one of Google’s stock price circa 2004. So something must be going right. (Teddy)
Yeah, OF gets shallow in a hurry this year, though TSA has the luxury of being able to shop for OFs who have specific skills, because the rest of his roster is good enough to handle it. BTW, we’re (kind of ) tracking weekly standings in the league this year, and the graph of this team’s season looks like one of Google’s stock price circa 2004. So something must be going right. (Teddy)
The Revenge Society
Signed: Chris Snyder (C, ARI); Mike Aviles (2B, KC); Brendan Ryan (SS, StL); Erick Aybar (SS, Ana)
Claimed off waivers: Troy Glaus (1B, Atl)
Called up from the prospect list: Justin Smoak (1B, Tex); Stephen Strasburg (SP, Wash)
Waived: Chris Young (SP, SD); Snyder; Aviles; Ryan; Kosuke Fukudome (OF, ChC); Aaron Heilman (RP, Fighting Irish)
Traded away: Smoak, Strasburg and their 3rd round pick in the 2001 draft to The Little Green One
Received in trade: Chase Utley (2B, Phi) and Elvis Andrus (SS, Tex)
So the 2005 champs upgrade from the disappointing Ian Stewart and hapless Mike Aviles to Utley and Andrus at the cost of a 3rd rounder and two of the best young players in baseball. Is is worth it? I say yes. Flags fly forever, and this year's is ripe for the taking with some work: the team's next to last in runs and middle of the pack in the power categories, and these two players could add 4-10 points to the team's bottom line. Strasburg had no use for this year--the team already's in first place in wins and K's--and Smoak is no guarantee to be any better than the just picked up Troy Glaus this year.
The question really is whether or not this was the best return a team could get for Strasburg and Smoak and a third rounder. It's nice that they solved their entire middle infielder in one fell swoop, but it goes without saying that 10 other owners would have been interested in Strasburg. (I certainly would have.) I admire Scot's stance that he takes on all negotiations honorably and not to drive up the price of players--and my experience with him has been just that--but if this doesn't pan out to a second title, it'll definitely be a deal the league talks about for a while as the Elders Steal. (El Angelo)
Yeah the trade fits the shape of the team fantastically well—no argument there. The quibbles center more on whether he could have gotten these players for less, which I guess in turn depends on where you think these guys would have been taken next year. I think Strasburg (if healthy) would go in the first round, meaning the team functionally traded a 1 and a 3 for Utley. At the very least, I doubt we’ll see anybody else command that sort of ransom. (Teddy)
Yeah the trade fits the shape of the team fantastically well—no argument there. The quibbles center more on whether he could have gotten these players for less, which I guess in turn depends on where you think these guys would have been taken next year. I think Strasburg (if healthy) would go in the first round, meaning the team functionally traded a 1 and a 3 for Utley. At the very least, I doubt we’ll see anybody else command that sort of ransom. (Teddy)
Le Dupont Torkies
Signed: Anibal Sanchez (SP, FLA); David Freese (3B, STL); Adrian Beltre (3B, Boston); Edwin Encarnacion (3B, Tor); John Jaso (C, TB); George Sherrill (RP, LA)
Waived: Andy LaRoche (3B, PIT); Chris Volstad (SP, Fla); Aaron Harang (SP, Cin); Encarnacion
It's third baseman audition time! So come on down...David Freese? Welcome to the show...The Even Worse LaRoche Brother (Andy)? What do you have to show us today....Edwin Encarnacion? The wheel appears to have stopped on defensive stalwart Adrian Beltre for the time being, presumably in an effort to help Sherrill and lower the team's ERA. (El Angelo)
3B is a terrible position to get caught short at right now, because there are 4-5 elite guys and then a mass of suck. About all you can hope for is to tread water. Down where the Torkies are at right now, that's not going to cut it.
In other news, I like the John Jaso pickup, as he’s providing sneaky value at another thin position. (Teddy)
3B is a terrible position to get caught short at right now, because there are 4-5 elite guys and then a mass of suck. About all you can hope for is to tread water. Down where the Torkies are at right now, that's not going to cut it.
In other news, I like the John Jaso pickup, as he’s providing sneaky value at another thin position. (Teddy)
Jeters Never Prosper
Signed: Asdrubal Cabrera (SS, Cle); Andres Torres (OF, SF)
Waived: Mike Cameron (OF, Bos); Franklin Morales (SP, Col)
Cabrera is a pure DL stash; Morales has morphed into a LOOGY despite being a decent pitcher, and Cameron has a lower SLG than OBP. That leaves Andres Torres as the only player of note in this quartet, and he's mildly intriguing because he's sporting a .393 OBP for the year with a few steals. It's a perfectly reasonable approach to take for your last outfield slot, because he won't help you in the power stats, but he'll give you a small boost in the rate and steals category, which is useful in theory. Of course, the fact that this team has a total of 11 points in the three power categories means they probably need the poor man's Rob Deer more than they need the Puerto Rican Ichiro. (El Angelo)
Cabrera is a pure DL stash; Morales has morphed into a LOOGY despite being a decent pitcher, and Cameron has a lower SLG than OBP. That leaves Andres Torres as the only player of note in this quartet, and he's mildly intriguing because he's sporting a .393 OBP for the year with a few steals. It's a perfectly reasonable approach to take for your last outfield slot, because he won't help you in the power stats, but he'll give you a small boost in the rate and steals category, which is useful in theory. Of course, the fact that this team has a total of 11 points in the three power categories means they probably need the poor man's Rob Deer more than they need the Puerto Rican Ichiro. (El Angelo)
The fear with Torres is that he’s already shown you everything he has at this point. He doesn’t have much in the way of power, and you’d have to assume that pitchers will just start pounding the zone against him. Of course, that assumes that anyone in the National League is alive and paying attention, which is questionable at best. (Teddy)
Wu Tang Financial
Signed: Livan Hernandez (Four-Sigma Event, WAS); Jamie Moyer (SP, Phi)
Waived: Derek Lowe Face (SP, Atl)
Let's tip our cap to a transaction line that can involve three pitchers that are a combined 119 years old, have thrown a total of 9,013 innings in Major League Baseball, and have faced a total of 38,511 batters. In other news, this team is in dead last. I decided to try to figure out what would have been the best year to have these three players on your fantasy roster, because it's clear the answer isn't 2010. The answer appears to be 2002, where the troika put up these stats:
- Jamie Moyer (with Seattle Mariners): 13-8, 3.32 ERA, 147 K's, 1.08 WHIP
- Livan Hernandez (with San Fran Giants): 12-16, 4.38 ERA, 134 K's, 1.41 WHIP
- Derek Lowe (with Boston Red Sox): 21-8, 2.58 ERA, 127 K's, 0.97 WHIP
The alternative is 1988:
- Jamie Moyer (with Chicago Cubs): 9-15, 3.48 ERA, 121 K's, 1.32 WHIP
- Livan Hernandez (with Villa Clara Payasos): 29-18, 2.13 ERA, 572 IP, 439 K's, 1.01 WHIP
- Derek Lowe (with Edsel Ford High School Thunderbirds): 10-1, 0.85 ERA, 97 K's, 0.45 WHIP
I go with 2002. (El Angelo)
There is no other reasonable interpretation of that transaction line: WTF are in go-for-it-now mode. To us, that’s pushing the “league is flat” meme to its absolute screaming breaking point, because it’s tough to see where the necessary 35 points and 11 passes are going to come from. But, hey, it don't cost nothing to try. Except maybe the chance to get a top prospect for Troy Tulowitski. (Teddy)
Duck-Duck-Duck-Fuke
Signed: Will Venable (OF, SD); Cla Meridith (RP, Bal); Reid Brignac (SS, TB); Jason Motte (RP, StL); Derek Lowe Face (SP, Atl)
Waived: Mitch Talbot (P, CLE); Meridith
Well, we've dealt enough with Lowe Face so let's move on to better things. I like Reid Brignac a lot as a placeholder until Jason Bartlett comes back, and Motte's an interesting sleeper play for when Ryan Franklin reverts to sucking. I'm actually a little surprised this team isn't well in the lead by now--they boast good players at most positions and are pretty well-rounded. Which is impressive considering the owner only had 1 pick in the first 4 rounds and got kicked in the balls on draft night. (El Angelo)
I got kicked in the balls by Alfonso Soriano at the ’09 draft, though more in a figurative sense than a literal one. (Teddy)
I got kicked in the balls by Alfonso Soriano at the ’09 draft, though more in a figurative sense than a literal one. (Teddy)
Gowanus Superfunders
Signed: Felipe Lopez (MI, STL); John Axford (RP, MIL); Jeff Francis (SP, Col); Jose Turbo Lopez (1B, Sea); Daric Barton (1B, Oak); Jose Tabata (OF, Pit)
Waived: Ryan Theriot (MI, CHC); Dan Wheeler (RP, TB); Tom Gorzellany (SP, Pit); Hong-Chi Kuo (RP, LA); Felipe Lopez (SS, StL); Albert Callaspo (2B, KC)
I'm trying to glean a pattern here from my worthy co-author's moves, but it's a bit tough to read. Francis is a fine pickup as a sleeper and John Axford is in the scrum for the Milwaukee bullpen. But a flyer on Jose Tabata when you're near the front? Turbo Lopez when you already have 3 perfectly fine infielders? Felipe Lopez at all? I'm puzzled. (El Angelo)
Well, I think that depends a fair amount on how one defines “perfectly fine”. I’m still platooning away madly in the MI, and Turbo has shown signs of life over the past week or so. Tabata is here for two reasons: SBs now (he had 25 in the minors and 2 already in the bigs) and trade value later. My roster was light on guys I could plausibly trade in a now-for-later swap, so a free pickup of the former top prospect in the Yankees system was too good to pass up. (Teddy)
Suck It, Silver
Signed: Will Ohman (RP, Bal)
We're not saying it's time to panic, but this was the consensus favorite for the year and they haven't sniffed the top since mid-April. Their middle infield (Hill and Escobar) have been disappointing, but the rest of their roster has produced up to snuff. So their remedy is Will Ohman? I understand that staying on plan may be prudent, but this is yet another quiet transaction week for a team that can't be happy with the results so far. (El Angelo)
At this point the team's problem is less its underperformance than the fact that they’re faced with a whole bunch of teams to climb over in order to get to the top. With reasonable trades hard to come by and a bunch of players who are too good to bench, this might be all he can do. (Teddy)
pastywhite tyrones
Signed: Corey Hart (OF, MIL); Sean Marshall (RP, ChC)
Waived: Asdrubal Cabrera (DL, CLE); Clay Hensley (RP, Fla)
True fact: the Mets turned down the trade of John Maine for Corey Hart this offseason. Reason #84 why Omar sucks. (El Angelo)
I’d have to imagine that Hart is being frantically marketed right now, because this sure looks like the top of the market. (Teddy)
True fact: the Mets turned down the trade of John Maine for Corey Hart this offseason. Reason #84 why Omar sucks. (El Angelo)
I’d have to imagine that Hart is being frantically marketed right now, because this sure looks like the top of the market. (Teddy)
The Situation Room
Signed: Francisco Cervelli (Really?, NYY); Jason Frasor (RP, TOR); Drew Stubbs (OF, CIN); Troy Glaus (1B, Atl); Armando Gallaraga (SP, Det); Brandon League (RP, Sea)
Waived: Erick Aybar (IF, LAA); Gaby Sanchez (1B, FLA); Cervelli; Scott Linebrink (RP, CHW); Matt Guerrier (RP, Min); Frasor; Glaus
Called Up From Prospect List: Drew Storen (RP, Was)
All the mess netted me a guy who threw a perfect game and the might be promising Drew Stubbs. Even I have one thing to say: yawn. (El Angelo)
I like Stubbs very much. But, yeah. Yawn. (Teddy)
I like Stubbs very much. But, yeah. Yawn. (Teddy)
Enrico Palazzo
Signed: Carlos Villanueva (RP, MIL); Ryan Theriot (MI, CHC); Brad Lincoln (RP, Pit)
Waived: JP Howell (DL, TB); Bengay Molina (C, SF); Dick Harden (SP, Tex); Sergio Santos (RP, CHW)
Called Up From Prospect List: Buster Posey (C, SF)
It's almost sad that we've seen Dick Harden go from promising prospect to disappointing starter to ace to injured mess to trade deadline fodder to utter garbage. Pour some out for ol' Dicky. (El Angelo)
Posey & Lincoln are nice building blocks, though the transaction that stands out the most is the waiving of JP Howell. Maybe it’s just a really old transaction, but I really enjoy the fact that someone might have been carrying him as a mascot for a month. (Teddy)
Posey & Lincoln are nice building blocks, though the transaction that stands out the most is the waiving of JP Howell. Maybe it’s just a really old transaction, but I really enjoy the fact that someone might have been carrying him as a mascot for a month. (Teddy)
Sunday, June 13, 2010
World Cup Tomorrow: Monday, June 14
To the extent that the choppy first World Cup weekend had a theme, it's "Short Europe." The Euro teams are 1-2-2 as of this writing, and even that maybe overstates their performance--all the Euro teams have played about 20% worse than expected, and the lone win came against a totally discombobulated 10-man Algeria team. Although we expect Germany to right the ship this afternoon, it's a trend worth keeping an eye on.
Netherlands v. Denmark (Group E, 7:30 AM ET)
One-sentence preview: Mismatch.
Of course, the Europe-sucks trend doesn't have much to say about a matchup between two Euro teams. The Netherlands come in hot, having gone undefeated in qualifying and won its three warm-up friendlies by a combined 12-3. They'll be missing influential winger Arjen Robben, though that not might be such a bad thing given that the Dutch have a real problem getting all of their attacking players enough touches when they're all in there at once. The Dutch traditionally manage to choke out early in the knockout stages, but tend to play some really fun football in the group stage.
Denmark are more a Serbia/Slovakia style Euro team, built around a solid defense and one or two good attackers (Arsenal F Nicklas Bendter and the well-traveled Jon Dahl Tomassen fill that role for the Danes). It's tough to see how the Danes will see much of the ball here.
Prediction: Netherlands 3-1 Denmark. Somebody'e got to score some goals here, right?
Japan v. Cameroon (10AM, Group E)
One-sentence preview: Throw the records out the window when these two get together!
This is one of those quintessential World Cup games between teams that have no history together and play wildly dissimilar styles. Japan sort of limp in on the back of 4 spring friendly losses to teams in this year's World Cup (Serbia, South Korea, England, Ivory Coast). The Ivory Coast matchup is probably the best barometer for this matchup, which isn't good for Japan, given that they saw very little of the ball and scored into their own net--all despite knocking Ivory Coast's best player out 18 minutes into the game. Their best scoring threat comes from free kicks off the boot of Shunsuke Nakamura (aka "Beckhamura"), both because he is good and because Cameroon can sometimes give away dumb fouls.
Cameroon were getting a lot less pub than Ivory Coast coming in, but they have almost as interesting a lineup, anchored by the best currently uninjured African player, Inter Milan F Samuel Eto'o. They too scuffled during recent friendly losses to Serbia and Portugal, though those losses came on the road. They should have more than enough to handle Japan in ehat is essentially a home game.
Prediction: Cameroon 1-0 Japan. Africa stays undefeated.
Italy v. Paraguay (2:30 PM, Group F)
In 2006, Italy were experienced. Now, they are old. That, combined with the poor Euro showings to date, make us think they're vulnerable here to a Paraguay team that allowed very few goals during qualifying, and come in on the back of a 2-2 road draw with Ivory Coast and a comfortable 2-0 win over Greece. The crumbling of this great Italian squad starts here.
Prediction: Paraguay 1-0 Italy.
Netherlands v. Denmark (Group E, 7:30 AM ET)
One-sentence preview: Mismatch.
Of course, the Europe-sucks trend doesn't have much to say about a matchup between two Euro teams. The Netherlands come in hot, having gone undefeated in qualifying and won its three warm-up friendlies by a combined 12-3. They'll be missing influential winger Arjen Robben, though that not might be such a bad thing given that the Dutch have a real problem getting all of their attacking players enough touches when they're all in there at once. The Dutch traditionally manage to choke out early in the knockout stages, but tend to play some really fun football in the group stage.
Denmark are more a Serbia/Slovakia style Euro team, built around a solid defense and one or two good attackers (Arsenal F Nicklas Bendter and the well-traveled Jon Dahl Tomassen fill that role for the Danes). It's tough to see how the Danes will see much of the ball here.
Prediction: Netherlands 3-1 Denmark. Somebody'e got to score some goals here, right?
Japan v. Cameroon (10AM, Group E)
One-sentence preview: Throw the records out the window when these two get together!
This is one of those quintessential World Cup games between teams that have no history together and play wildly dissimilar styles. Japan sort of limp in on the back of 4 spring friendly losses to teams in this year's World Cup (Serbia, South Korea, England, Ivory Coast). The Ivory Coast matchup is probably the best barometer for this matchup, which isn't good for Japan, given that they saw very little of the ball and scored into their own net--all despite knocking Ivory Coast's best player out 18 minutes into the game. Their best scoring threat comes from free kicks off the boot of Shunsuke Nakamura (aka "Beckhamura"), both because he is good and because Cameroon can sometimes give away dumb fouls.
Cameroon were getting a lot less pub than Ivory Coast coming in, but they have almost as interesting a lineup, anchored by the best currently uninjured African player, Inter Milan F Samuel Eto'o. They too scuffled during recent friendly losses to Serbia and Portugal, though those losses came on the road. They should have more than enough to handle Japan in ehat is essentially a home game.
Prediction: Cameroon 1-0 Japan. Africa stays undefeated.
Italy v. Paraguay (2:30 PM, Group F)
In 2006, Italy were experienced. Now, they are old. That, combined with the poor Euro showings to date, make us think they're vulnerable here to a Paraguay team that allowed very few goals during qualifying, and come in on the back of a 2-2 road draw with Ivory Coast and a comfortable 2-0 win over Greece. The crumbling of this great Italian squad starts here.
Prediction: Paraguay 1-0 Italy.
Saturday, June 12, 2010
World Cup Tomorrow: Sunday, June 13th
Sunday marks the first round of games in what is probably the most competitive top-to-bottom group in this year’s WC, and also gives USA fans a look at their next two opponents.
Algeria v. Slovenia (7:30 AM, Group C)
One-sentence preview: The afterthoughts in the USA-England group try to sneak into qualifying position.
Slovenia are a close to unknown as is possible for a team that makes it through European qualifying. They came in second in a weak qualifying group, then won a playoff on the away-goals rule when Russia managed to get two players red carded. They’ve only played one recent friendly, a 3-1 win over New Zealand that didn’t do much to clarify their. Probably their most established player on the club level is their keeper, who plays for Udinese in Italy. They also have young MF named Rene Krhin who is on Inter Milan’s roster, though it’s unclear whether he’s ready for prime time. What the team really does well is prevent goals—they gave up only 6 in their 12 qualifying games.
Algeria is also not exactly running over with household names. Unlike Slovenia, Algeria did play enough recent friendlies to give a sense of their form. Unfortunately for them, those friendlies included 3-0 bootings at the hands of Serbia and Ireland, who are Euro countries of roughly similar strength to Slovenia. We cop to knowing relatively little about their roster, though it’s worth keeping an eye on Portsmouth back Nadir Belhadj, who came back from injury to look frisky in the English FA Cup final this year.
If you’re a USA fan, what you’re rooting for here is a goalless draw. The USA don’t want to risk Slovenia getting out to a quick 3-point start, which would let them play for a draw against the USA, and then need only to pull a point off of an England team with nothing to play for in order to advance out of the group. (Assuming, of course, that England beat the USA today.) So root for boredom as hard as you can.
Prediction: Slovenia 1-0 Algeria. Boring, but not boring enough for the USA’s tastes.
Serbia v. Ghana (10:00 AM, Group D)
One-sentence preview: I went to a rugby match and a soccer game broke out.
These are two big sides, though they’ve chosen to deploy their size in different ways. Serbia are sturdy at the back, featuring defenders Nemanja Vidic (who’s 6’2”, and who we think was the second-best player for Man U this past season) and Neven Subotic (6’4”). So there’s not going to be much in the way of aerial goals for the Ghanaians. Up front, Serbia are led by Ajax’s Marko Pantelic, who is a great finisher, but no longer much of an athlete.
Ghana put its horses in the midfield, where the 6’+ Boateng brothers and Inter Milan holding MF Sulley Muntari combine to give Ghana a ton of athleticism. However, the squad don’t really have a top-class striker—their top striker, Asamoah Gyan, plays for a middling French club. Their recent results also haven’t been all that encouraging, with a narrow 1-0 win over Latvia preceded by a 4-1 thumping at the Netherlands.
There are no soft touches in this group, and there won’t be any in this game either. We think a lot comes down to the crowd—if the Ghanaians are adopted by the South African crowd, they should get a burst of energy useful in breaking down the Serbs.
Prediction: Serbia 1-1 Ghana. Serbia are a popular dark horse pick for the sharps, but we don’t like them quite that much.
Germany v. Australia (2:30 PM, Group D)
One-sentence preview: There may not be much skill, but the effort level will be off the charts.
Honestly, we could pretty much cut-and-paste the England-USA preview here. As in that match, Australia are faced with the problem of trying to beat a team that relies on the same style (high pressure, high effort), but can call on better players to execute that style. The only real difference is that where both England and the USA had hotheads in their teams, here (as you’d expect) all the crazy guys are Australian. Tim Cahill is both Australia’s best player and a card magnet; if he picks up an early yellow, he’ll have to play scared and could lose some of his effectiveness.
Germany lost their captain, Michael Ballack, to an ankle injury picked up when one of the Ghanaian Boateng boys crashed into him during the English FA Cup final (more on that before the Germany-Ghana match). But Germany are the absolute best at plugging replacement parts into the machine and rolling on in major tournaments.
Prediction: Germany 2-0 Australia.
Algeria v. Slovenia (7:30 AM, Group C)
One-sentence preview: The afterthoughts in the USA-England group try to sneak into qualifying position.
Slovenia are a close to unknown as is possible for a team that makes it through European qualifying. They came in second in a weak qualifying group, then won a playoff on the away-goals rule when Russia managed to get two players red carded. They’ve only played one recent friendly, a 3-1 win over New Zealand that didn’t do much to clarify their. Probably their most established player on the club level is their keeper, who plays for Udinese in Italy. They also have young MF named Rene Krhin who is on Inter Milan’s roster, though it’s unclear whether he’s ready for prime time. What the team really does well is prevent goals—they gave up only 6 in their 12 qualifying games.
Algeria is also not exactly running over with household names. Unlike Slovenia, Algeria did play enough recent friendlies to give a sense of their form. Unfortunately for them, those friendlies included 3-0 bootings at the hands of Serbia and Ireland, who are Euro countries of roughly similar strength to Slovenia. We cop to knowing relatively little about their roster, though it’s worth keeping an eye on Portsmouth back Nadir Belhadj, who came back from injury to look frisky in the English FA Cup final this year.
If you’re a USA fan, what you’re rooting for here is a goalless draw. The USA don’t want to risk Slovenia getting out to a quick 3-point start, which would let them play for a draw against the USA, and then need only to pull a point off of an England team with nothing to play for in order to advance out of the group. (Assuming, of course, that England beat the USA today.) So root for boredom as hard as you can.
Prediction: Slovenia 1-0 Algeria. Boring, but not boring enough for the USA’s tastes.
Serbia v. Ghana (10:00 AM, Group D)
One-sentence preview: I went to a rugby match and a soccer game broke out.
These are two big sides, though they’ve chosen to deploy their size in different ways. Serbia are sturdy at the back, featuring defenders Nemanja Vidic (who’s 6’2”, and who we think was the second-best player for Man U this past season) and Neven Subotic (6’4”). So there’s not going to be much in the way of aerial goals for the Ghanaians. Up front, Serbia are led by Ajax’s Marko Pantelic, who is a great finisher, but no longer much of an athlete.
Ghana put its horses in the midfield, where the 6’+ Boateng brothers and Inter Milan holding MF Sulley Muntari combine to give Ghana a ton of athleticism. However, the squad don’t really have a top-class striker—their top striker, Asamoah Gyan, plays for a middling French club. Their recent results also haven’t been all that encouraging, with a narrow 1-0 win over Latvia preceded by a 4-1 thumping at the Netherlands.
There are no soft touches in this group, and there won’t be any in this game either. We think a lot comes down to the crowd—if the Ghanaians are adopted by the South African crowd, they should get a burst of energy useful in breaking down the Serbs.
Prediction: Serbia 1-1 Ghana. Serbia are a popular dark horse pick for the sharps, but we don’t like them quite that much.
Germany v. Australia (2:30 PM, Group D)
One-sentence preview: There may not be much skill, but the effort level will be off the charts.
Honestly, we could pretty much cut-and-paste the England-USA preview here. As in that match, Australia are faced with the problem of trying to beat a team that relies on the same style (high pressure, high effort), but can call on better players to execute that style. The only real difference is that where both England and the USA had hotheads in their teams, here (as you’d expect) all the crazy guys are Australian. Tim Cahill is both Australia’s best player and a card magnet; if he picks up an early yellow, he’ll have to play scared and could lose some of his effectiveness.
Germany lost their captain, Michael Ballack, to an ankle injury picked up when one of the Ghanaian Boateng boys crashed into him during the English FA Cup final (more on that before the Germany-Ghana match). But Germany are the absolute best at plugging replacement parts into the machine and rolling on in major tournaments.
Prediction: Germany 2-0 Australia.
Friday, June 11, 2010
World Cup Tomorrow: Saturday, June 12th
Three games tomorrow, as the world takes Saturday off to sit on the couch. Previews of South Korea-Greece, Argentina-Nigeria, and England-USA to follow.
South Korea v. Greece (7:30 AM, Group B)
One-sentence preview: A scintillating matchup between a team that can’t score and one that doesn’t want to.
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As always, we’re being slightly unfair here. South Korea actually have a number of talented players through the midfield, where three of their starters (Park Ji-Sung of Man U, Lee Chung-Yong of Bolton, and Ki Sung-Yeung of Celtic) start for competitive British teams. South Korea are known for playing at a high tempo, and for showing good cohesion in open play. What they don’t have is much in the way of size up front or at the back. This leaves them unable to get cheap goals from free kicks, and vulnerable to giving up cheap goals against the run of play.
Greece are almost the mirror image of South Korea. They are massively unexciting through the middle, but are stalwart at the back and well-drilled on set plays (just ask Portugal, who had the ball for what felt like 89 of the 90 minutes against Greece in the Euro ’04 final, but lost 1-0 on set piece.) The tactical wizardry of the team’s appropriately dour German coach, Otto Rehhagel, has been described in lavish detail by ZonalMarking.net, so we won’t even try to explain it here. But expect Greece to happily let South Korea buzz around at will in MF, while clamping down in the penalty area.
Prediction: South Korea 1-0 Greece. We’re high on South Korea this year.
Argentina v. Nigeria (10:00 AM, Group B)
One-sentence preview: The world’s craziest coach takes on the world’s craziest team.
We can’t remember a time when the prevailing opinion on a team was shaped so heavily by the public perception of its coach. Yes, Diego Maradona is nuts, and yes, the last team he was involved in a World Cup game against Nigeria he scored a goal but then failed a post-match drug test. But the real stories for this team are on the field, where there are two big questions: (1) Can Lionel Messi find the form that made him the best club player in the world for Barcelona; and (2) is central midfielder Juan Sebastian Veron, who failed out of several top European clubs, good enough to get the ball to Argentina’s attacking talent in good positions?
In theory, Veron’s task should be made easier by the traditionally helter-skelter play of Nigeria. That said, Nigeria’s reputation as the team most likely to score 3 goals while conceding 4 is a little overblown at this point. They were in the middle of the pack in GS and GA at the 2010 African Cup of Nations, and their best player is probably Jon Obi Mikel of Chelsea, who is a midfield destroyer. The problem is that Mikel is hurt, which will leave Nigeria vulnerable at the back. They have the size and speed to match up with Argentina, but the expectation is that Argentina will essentially pass them into submission
Prediction: Argentina 3-1 Nigeria. We believe.
England v. USA (2:30 PM, Group C)
One-sentence preview: WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!
Not much to say here, as this game has been analyzed to death by all and sundry. You don’t need us to tell you more about the US’s injury problems up front and at the back, or that this will probably be the most-watched US soccer match in history.
South Korea v. Greece (7:30 AM, Group B)
One-sentence preview: A scintillating matchup between a team that can’t score and one that doesn’t want to.
.
As always, we’re being slightly unfair here. South Korea actually have a number of talented players through the midfield, where three of their starters (Park Ji-Sung of Man U, Lee Chung-Yong of Bolton, and Ki Sung-Yeung of Celtic) start for competitive British teams. South Korea are known for playing at a high tempo, and for showing good cohesion in open play. What they don’t have is much in the way of size up front or at the back. This leaves them unable to get cheap goals from free kicks, and vulnerable to giving up cheap goals against the run of play.
Greece are almost the mirror image of South Korea. They are massively unexciting through the middle, but are stalwart at the back and well-drilled on set plays (just ask Portugal, who had the ball for what felt like 89 of the 90 minutes against Greece in the Euro ’04 final, but lost 1-0 on set piece.) The tactical wizardry of the team’s appropriately dour German coach, Otto Rehhagel, has been described in lavish detail by ZonalMarking.net, so we won’t even try to explain it here. But expect Greece to happily let South Korea buzz around at will in MF, while clamping down in the penalty area.Prediction: South Korea 1-0 Greece. We’re high on South Korea this year.
Argentina v. Nigeria (10:00 AM, Group B)
One-sentence preview: The world’s craziest coach takes on the world’s craziest team.
We can’t remember a time when the prevailing opinion on a team was shaped so heavily by the public perception of its coach. Yes, Diego Maradona is nuts, and yes, the last team he was involved in a World Cup game against Nigeria he scored a goal but then failed a post-match drug test. But the real stories for this team are on the field, where there are two big questions: (1) Can Lionel Messi find the form that made him the best club player in the world for Barcelona; and (2) is central midfielder Juan Sebastian Veron, who failed out of several top European clubs, good enough to get the ball to Argentina’s attacking talent in good positions?
In theory, Veron’s task should be made easier by the traditionally helter-skelter play of Nigeria. That said, Nigeria’s reputation as the team most likely to score 3 goals while conceding 4 is a little overblown at this point. They were in the middle of the pack in GS and GA at the 2010 African Cup of Nations, and their best player is probably Jon Obi Mikel of Chelsea, who is a midfield destroyer. The problem is that Mikel is hurt, which will leave Nigeria vulnerable at the back. They have the size and speed to match up with Argentina, but the expectation is that Argentina will essentially pass them into submission
Prediction: Argentina 3-1 Nigeria. We believe.
England v. USA (2:30 PM, Group C)
One-sentence preview: WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!
Not much to say here, as this game has been analyzed to death by all and sundry. You don’t need us to tell you more about the US’s injury problems up front and at the back, or that this will probably be the most-watched US soccer match in history.
Our take continues to be that this is a particularly bad matchup for the US, because England plays a similar style with better players. In the absence of a contrast in styles, games usually come down to talent, and England just has more of that. We will say that we think that Oguchi Onyewu’s injury concerns will combine with England’s own injury issues at the back (with D Rio Ferdinand and defensive MF Gareth Barry both out), to ensure that the ball will end up in the back of the net a fair amount. It just won’t be the net we’re hoping for.
Prediction: England 4-2 USA. Match of the round lives up to the hype.
Also, on the off chance that the US is leading coming down the stretch , we’d like to suggest a couple of songs/chants for the US fans to get going. Our top choice would probably be “Are you Scotland in disguise?” though we’d also accept “You’ve still got snooker” as an alternative.
Prediction: England 4-2 USA. Match of the round lives up to the hype.
Also, on the off chance that the US is leading coming down the stretch , we’d like to suggest a couple of songs/chants for the US fans to get going. Our top choice would probably be “Are you Scotland in disguise?” though we’d also accept “You’ve still got snooker” as an alternative.
Thursday, June 10, 2010
New Feature: World Cup Tomorrow
In honor of the 2010 World Cup, we’ve decided to launch "World Cup Tomorrow", the latest in our line of temporary permanent features (though, at this point I guess you could say that the Daily Super Bowl Hype Meme has transitioned from a temporary permanent feature into a permanent temporary feature. But I digress.)Because the time-shifted schedule for the matches in South Africa makes it difficult to provide meaningful previews or reviews of a given day’s action, we’ve decided to instead put up a preview of the next day’s games. This approach has the advantage of sidestepping the timing issues, and also ensures that we can’t make any factual errors about the games, because they won’t actually have happened yet.
Confused? Excellent! Then let’s plunge ahead with a look at the games on tap tomorrow, Friday, June 11th.
South Africa v. Mexico (Group A, 10:00 AM ET)
Beginning with last summer’s Confederations Cup, South Africa put up nearly a full calendar year’s worth of uninspired football. The team didn’t even qualify for participation in the 2010 African Cup of Nations, and managed to draw consecutive home friendlies against powerhouses Namibia, Paraguay, and South Africa this spring.
But recently (and just in the nick of time), the Bafana Bafana have shown signs of friskiness, sandwiching close wins over Colombia and Denmark around a 5-0 whitewashing of a Guatemalan team who can’t have been happy about flying 2/3 of the way across the world just to get waxed. Combine that good recent form with the traditional bump that host nations get, especially on opening day, and all of a sudden there’s a chance for this match to get interesting.
That said, Mexico are still by far the more talented side--only SA’s Everton midfielder Stephen Pienaar would be a lock to see the field for Mexico. Mexico have had nice results recently as well, beating holders Italy 2-1 on a neutral field, and enduring a superficially bad 3-1 loss at England where Mexico actually carried the play for large parts of that game. The team has shown a commitment to attacking football (playing an offensive-minded 4-3-3 formation) that stands in stark contrast to some recent Mexican teams who featured a ratio of 3 kicks at the ball for every 2 kicks at an opposing player.
There’s still some lingering controversy about whether to go with experience or youth up front (Guillermo Franco v. recent Manchester United signee Javier Hernandez) and in goal (doesn’t matter; they both kind of suck). But shy of that, Mexico come in to the Word Cup in great shape. Honestly, if not for the vuvuzela-based crowd bounce for SA, Mexico would be heavy favorites. As it stands…?Prediction: Mexico 2-1 South Africa. Game is tied at halftime, but class tells once the vuvuzelas drop out of hypergear.
Uruguay v. France (Group A, 2:30 PM ET)
A much less sexy matchup, but one with the possibility of producing a fun outcome because both teams are better up front than they are at the back.
France feature a slightly unusual attacking midfield trio of Franck Ribery (whose glamour shot is at right), Florent Malouda, and Yoann Gourcouff playing just behind a lone striker in Nicolas Anelka. That’s pretty good on paper, though it hasn’t translated to the field recently, where the French scored a total of 1 goal in two matches against Tunisia and China. At the back, France really only have one natural central defender, which is a problem given that their formation calls for two. They also have about 11 left-side defenders, but no natural right-side guy.
Uruguay can expect to exploit those issues at the back, given the strength of their strikers. Diego Forlan has blossomed into one of the better goal scorers in the Spanish Liga, and Luis Suarez, who showed this year that he’s probably too good for the Dutch league. The problem is that those guys might not get much in the way of service, because Uruguay tend to curl up into a pretty defensive formation on the field. That might be because their starting goalkeeper is a guy who was third-string for a middling English team this year. In any event, if you’re just rooting for a good game, pull hard for an early French goal, which will pull Uruguay out of its shell, and might tip off an unexpected goal fest.
Prediction: France 0-0 Uruguay. The early goal never comes, and nobody does nothing nohow.
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