Pitching and Defense

Remember, kids, winning teams are built around pitching and defense. As proof, here are the top ten A.L. teams pitching and defense teams as measured by runs allowed, with playoff teams bolded:

1. Seattle
2. Chicago
3. Boston
4. Texas
5. Detroit
6. New York
7. Tampa Bay
8. Minnesota
T-9. L.A./Anaheim
T-9. Oakland

See? All the playoff teams are in the top ten. Compare that with A.L. team offensive rankings, as measured by runs scored, again with playoff teams bolded:

1. New York
2. L.A./Anaheim
3. Boston
4. Minnesota
. . .
Wait.

Never mind.

Drive-By Tuckers

Congratulations to Le Dupont Torkies for their win this season. Aroids Anonymous overcame evil supercomputer Nate Silver for second, and Recalcitrant Cobbler made a stirring late charge to hit the board for third. On behalf of my colleague (who is currently indisposed by both trial work and an incoherent, stuttering rage at his team's offensive collapse), thanks to all for a fun season.

As for the blog, we have a couple more league-related posts on tap (i.e. at look at the prospects of each team's, er, prospects), and doubtless will have something to say about the MLB playoffs this month. That will take us up to El Angelo's award-winning Breeders Cup coverage in late October/early November. Apres ca, le deluge.

A Silly Thought, Part 2

Now that we’ve set up our weird little thought experiment, let’s take a moment to (1) consider what, if anything, it actually tells us, and (2) as is SOP here at the GRBG, seize the opportunity to praise or mock people based on limited samples of questionable data.

Lesson the First: You Can’t Fight Genetics

Some years you get the bear; some years the bear gets you. The data impart this lesson in two ways.

First, a substantial portion of league success is down to getting good seasons out of the guys you draft. The bizarro league accurately reflects the group of teams who will finish in the 2-4 slots, and pegged three other teams to within one place of their reality rankings. Never mind that those six teams have completed something like 250 transactions between them; their destinies were pretty well set from day one.

Second, the huge PECOTA misses are mostly reflected in both the bizarro and reality standings, meaning that the power of player variance (or owner clairvoyance) usually trumps in-season maneuvering. For example, IEP’s precipitous crash is reflected in both the bizarro and reality standings; it’s tough to see what he could have done to pull out of the nosedive even if he had bothered to pay attention this year. And in the other direction, AA ends up in the same place (2d) in both leagues despite completing numerous major trades in the live league. All that sound and fury amounted to basically nothing compared to being right about Carl Crawford back in March.

Lesson the Second: Unless, That Is, You Live in D.C.

The Torkies, Funiculi, and Loose Bowels all did their best to fight their genes. Of course, while the Torkies and FF decided to overcome their limitations and beat their bizarro doppelgangers by 4 and 6 places, respectively, the TLB decided to devolve all the way to the bottom. According to reliable reports, the commish spent much of yesterday beating a femur against a large stone obelisk; we can but trust that positive results will follow shortly.

So with those bits of wisdom carved into digital stone, let’s move on to the awards.

The “Suck it, Nate Silver” Award

Goes to AA for just crushing his PECOTA projection, which appeared to assume that he had drafted a team of conceptual performance artists rather than ballplayers. Also the winner of the “Best Draft” award, and likely reason why half of the league will switch to Ron Shandler next season.

The Tim Geithner “Why Do I Bother?” Award

Goes to wormcheese mousebird. After trading away half of his opening day roster (and a couple of chunks of mine to boot), he ended up all of one place away from where PECOTA and the bizarro world predicted he would. Let’s see, the owner engaged in frenzied activity in support of frequently criticized grand plans, yet maintained a permanent belief that the fundamentals were strong and the team would soon turn the corner. Can’t understand how a guy like that ended up at the Fed.

The King Lear Memorial “Blow, winds, and crack your cheeks!” Trophy

Goes to IEP. Fate’s a bitch.

The Barack Obama Presidential Citation for Overcoming Adversity

Goes to Flaccid Funiculi; beating your fate by 6 spots is a nice achievement. It shows that anyone can achieve in this league, even those who, like FF, were born in Kenya.

The Chase Utley MVP Award

Can’t really go anywhere but to Le Dupont Torkies. The 6 spot gap between PECOTA and bizarro world? The cynical could write that off as luck. Taking that “lucky” roster another 4 spots to the top? Well, that’s pretty good.

A Silly Thought Experiment and Concomitantly Modest Proposal

As we've noted elsewhere, the "official" GRBG league predictions as generated by Baseball Prospectus's PECOTA data were less than razor sharp crossbow accurate. But, as noted in the prediction post, there were three problems with our use of PECOTA. One of those problems--PECOTA's inability to factor in the performance of owners--clearly contributed to the predictions' shortcomings.

We here at the GRBG wondered whether there was a way to separate out managerial performance and see how PECOTA would have done based on the rosters as drafted. As we wondered this, our eyes wandered to our Yahoo! notification stream, which informed us for the 200th consecutive day that Troy Percival was on the injured list, yet in our starting lineup. And then we remembered:

The Death Ship.

Because of various wacky mishaps with the draft system (and a certain owner's apparent inability to read a watch), on draft day the league created an alternate reality. That reality contained slightly warped copies of all our teams, with rosters as they stood after the completion of most of the draft. The bizarro league was then sealed up and left to play itself out without material interference from us. It became, essentially, a control group. So did PECOTA do any better predicting the bizarro world? Here are the predictions vs the actual standings:

PECOTA	Bizarro Standings	Reality
It's Enrico Palazzo	Wu Tang Financial	Le Dupont Torkies
Wu Tang Financial	Aroids Anonymous	Aroids Anonymous
Unenviable Position	Recalcitrant Cobbler	Mission Accomplished
Evil League of Evil	fakeleague (Ang)	Recalcitrant Cobbler
Mission Accomplished	Le Dupont Torkies	Flaccid Funiculi
Recalcitrant Cobbler	The Loose Bowels	Wu Tang Financial
The Loose Bowels	The Spam Avengers	wormcheese etc.
wormcheese etc.	wormcheese etc.	Unenviable Position
The Spam Avengers	Jake!Wrong League (Scot)	Evil League of Evil
Flaccid Funiculi	Unenviable Position	The Spam Avengers
Le Dupont Torkies	Draft? (Will)	It’s Enrico Palazzo
Aroids Anonymous	It’s Enrico Palazzo	The Loose Bowels

Well, PECOTA did seem to come closer to the control group than it did to manager-affected reality, so maybe there's some value there after all. More interestingly, the gaps between the projections, control group, and reality give some interesting insights into who has done the best job as an owner this year (hint: not me). We'll cover that in a later post. But I'll tell you what: we should definitely make the Death Ship league an annual tradition so we can track this stuff.

Does Super Filly = Super Mom?

Four months ago, we questioned the hype that accompanied Rachel Alexandra, stating "her reputation is beyond her accomplishments at the moment." Four races later, including 3 victories over male horses and having beaten every single dirt horse of significance in America, Rachel Alexandra has established herself as one of the greatest female horses in American history. We hear the word "great" thrown around a lot with horses that are merely very good. This isn't the case with RA. She's truly an all-time great.

What isn't true, though is that this guarantees that her offspring will be fantastic. There's a lot of talk in the Interwebs that when she and 2007/2008 Horse of the Year Curlin mate, they will produce the next Pegasus. Take, for example, Billy Finley:

The next stop will be a farm somewhere in Kentucky and a date with Curlin. Want to get really ahead of ourselves? The foal should debut sometime during the 2013 meet at Saratoga before winning either the Spinaway or Hopeful.

Putting aside the fact his date is wrong (if she retires after 2010, as his article suggests, her first foal wouldn't hit the track until 2014), it's just wrong to think that because she's great, her foals will be great. If anything, history has proven the exact opposite. Let's take a look at how well the offspring of arguably the greatest fillies of the past 30 years have fared. We've excluded horses that died before they could breed (Go For Wand, Ruffian) and those that retired too recently to have much of a sample size (Azeri, Ashado). To make this manageable, we're only focusing on North American horses.

All Along--13 foals to race, none did anything.

Bayakoa--4 foals, none of which did anything.

Dance Smartly--This Canadien filly foaled 2 winners of the Queen's Plate and another stakes winner in 9 foals.

Genuine Risk--only successfully carried 2 foals to term, neither raced.

Heavenly Prize--9 foals to race, 2 of which were solid: Good Reward won a couple of Grade 1's on the turf and over a million dollars, while Pure Prize won almost half a million bucks. Neither horse was ever considered for an Eclipse Award, but both had their moments.

Life's Magic--14 foals, the only one who did anything was Simon Pure, who was in the money in a couple of stakes races.

Open Mind--2 foals, one of which did well in Japan.

Paseana--1 foal, who never raced.

Personal Ensign--The best of this group by a mile. She foaled My Flag, a multiple G1 winner and the 1995 BC Juvenile Fillies winner (who foaled multiple Grade 1 winner Storm Flag Flying); Miner's Mark, who won the JC Gold Cup and Traditionally, the winner of the Oaklawn Handicap. Additionally, she foaled Our Emblem, a consistent stakes horse (who sired 2002 Derby winner War Emblem) and a couple of other useful horses in Proud and True and Salute. And still, she had 3-4 foals who did little or nothing.

Princess Rooney--7 foals, one of which won over $100,000.

Serena's Song--9 foals to race with varying success. Grand Reward and Harlington earned money, but were never world beaters. Serena's Tune and Sophisticat were oddly managed and may have been better than they appeared on track.

Sky Beauty--7 foals, none of which did anything of note.

Winning Colors--10 foals to race, only two of which won over $100,000, and both of them did it in Japan, where the purses dwarf ours, making the comparison difficult.

From this group of leading ladies, we've got 96 foals, which have produced a total of 7 Grade 1 winners, i.e., a 7.3% batting average on being a very good horse. (It's probably notable that 4 of the G1 winners came from Heavenly Prize and Personal Ensign, which are regally bred fillies from the Phipps family.) At best, therefore, Rachel Alexandra is a 50/50 shot to produce a single Grade 1 winner, and there's a pretty good chance that her offspring will be anonymous. Remember, Serena's Song did great against the boys too, and hasn't produced anything that's contended for a title. What's to make us think that Rachel Alexandra is any different?

Transactions Analysis Part III: Bringing It All Back Home Edition

Le Dupont Torkies

Obtained Aramis Ramirez (3b, CHC) from The Spam Avengers; traded away Ryan Zimmerman (3B, WAS) to same. [7/7]

Obtained Brandon Inge (C/3B, DET) and Michael Cuddyer (1B/OF) from wormcheese moosebird; traded away Denard Span (OF, MIN) and Matt Garza (SP, TB) to same [7/8]

Obtained Matt Holliday (OF, STL) from Aroids Anonymous; traded away Vlad Guerrero (OF, LAA) to same [7/30]

Obtained Adam Dunn (1B/OF, WAS) and Ryan Franklin (RP, STL) from wormcheese moosebird; traded away Chad Billingsley (SP, LAD) and Jon Broxton (RP, LAD) to same. [7/30]

Notable FA pickups: Julio Borbon (OF, TEX)
Notable FA cuts: Ryan Dempster (P, CHC), Billy Wagner (RP, BOS)

And so here we see a continuation on my season-long theory that effort = results in this league. Nobody else was as active in the trade market as the Torkies, and unsurprisingly they’re on top of the league as of this writing. The only note of caution is that they’re still on pace to cruise through the innings limit, but as of now they have the cushion to absorb that.

As for the trades themselves, three of the four were straightforward now-for-later moves, with useful pieces like Matt Garza, Ryan Zimmerman, and Chad Billingsley sacrificed to bring in win-now vets. The fourth trade, however, was a good old-fashioned barrel-fucking. Lines since the trade:

Matt Holliday: .380/28R/11HR/35RBI/1SB
Vlad Guerrero: .345/25R/9HR/19RBI/0SB

If you just voided that one trade, you’d see a 4.5-point swing between the Torkies and AA, such that AA would now be in second place with 95.5 points, only 3.5 points behind the Torkies in first. Instead, AA are in 3d and the Torkies are cantering home with another title. Crazy. (Teddy)

I note this below, but let's also bear in mind that Tucker's also traded some draft picks for next year, but when you're drafting last and have a good eye for non-crappy players, it matters little. I don't have much to add to Teddy's analysis except to somewhat belatedly marvel at the August 23-26 stretch where Tucker went from 4 points behind me to 11 1/2 points ahead. For that type of a rally to occur in August is unheard of, and I tip my hat to our probable repeat winner. (El Angelo)

Flaccid Funiculi

Obtained: Brandon Philips (2B, CIN) and Dexter Fowler (OF, COL) from Aroids Anonymous; traded away Jose Lopez (2B, SEA) to same [7/23].

Notable FA pickups: Francisco Liriano (SP, MIN), Drew Stubbs (OF, CIN)
Notable FA cuts: Dallas Braden (SP, OAK)

There was a notable lack of win-now moves for this team, with FF pretty much ceding the field to the Torkies, MA, and the Cobblers. The Brandon Philips/Jose Lopez trade was pretty much a wash, with Lopez slugging well and Philips providing more speed. That means the team gave up essentially nothing for Dexter Fowler, an intriguing guy whose floor looks to be Willy Taveras, a guy who has been plenty valuable in this league over the years. Nice trade; you wonder what might have been had the team pulled off one or two more like it. (Teddy)

Let's give Will a little more credit here: he fired a big bullet early by dealing a first-round pick away for Shane Victorino and Justin Verlander back in June, both of which have been solid contributors. What really seems to have happened it the Law of Large Numbers finally caught up to this squad, as it was top heavy with little depth on offense. One bad injury--which Carlos Beltran's was, if Will had the probable 15 HR's and 15 steals he would have provided, he would be in 2nd place--proved to be too much for the team to overcome. Lots of points for style, though, because it's great to see an owner try an unconventional style, stick with it, and make a great run at the title. You know, like our commish, only the exact opposite. (El Angelo)

Aroids Anonymous

Obtained: Lopez; traded away Philips and Fowler (OF, COL) [7/23].

Obtained Guerrero; traded away Holliday [7/30].

Obtained: Joe Nathan (RP, MIN) from wormcheese moosebird; traded away Curtis Granderson (OF, DET). [8/9]

Notable FA pickups: Scott Feldman (SP, TEX), Franklin Morales (temporary CL, COL)
Notable FA drops: A ton of young pitching, including Dan Bard, Dustin Nippert, Chris Volstad, et al.

I’ve pretty well spoiled a lot of this above, but suffice to say that one of these trades was catastrophic and another was more or less ineffectual. That said, the Joe Nathan/Curtis Granderson trade was good for both sides and helped AA defend critical points in the SV category. Even better were the two FA pickups highlighted above. It’s rare to add a 16-game winner and a decent closer to a fantasy roster in late August without giving up anything at all, but that’s what AA pulled off. (Teddy)

I'm a lot less harsh than my co-author on the Holliday trade, and am giving Corey much more benefit of the doubt. Let's remember at the time Corety made the Holliday trade, (1) his team was much further out of it than he is now (I'm not sure they had cracked the 80 point barrier by then), and (2) Holliday had been playing like shit for the A's. To top it off, Holliday is unkeepable for next year while Vladie is, and they picked up a late 2nd round pick in the exchange. It's a purely defensible move, which only seems worse because the Aroids didn't tank afterwards, they kept getting better. How much of that is a function of his team playing better versus the bottom half of the league cratering is debatable--the bottom 5 teams in this league have lost enough points from inertia and crappiness this year that it's likely that 85 points will only get you 5th place this year.

As for Scott Feldman, the fact that he has 16 wins is nothing shy of truly shocking. The guy has a K/BB ratio that's approaching 3/2, can't strike anyone out, and plays in a horrible park for pitchers. He is currently tied for first in AL Wins with CC Sabathia and Verlander, and is clearly the answer to "which doesn't belong and why" for that trio. In fact, I'll officially declare him the worst pitcher to contend for the win title since 1989, when Bleach Saberhagen lead the AL with 21 W's. That year's top 10 included Storm Davis (19 wins), Mike Moore (19), something called Jeff Ballard (18--he had 23 the rest of his career), the immortal Allan Anderson (17) and...wait for it...AL Rookie of the Year runner-up, Tom Gordon (17). Reading that officially made me feel old. (El Angelo)

Transactions Analysis Part II: Mini Mini Edition

Originally we were going to do two parts, but we finished three teams pretty quickly, relatively speaking. So why not break it down into a threesome? (El Angelo)

Ummm...gonna have to pass. Not a fan of the rotisserie. (Teddy)

Evil League of Evil

• Signed Fat Squirrel, OF, Tampa Bay; Released Vernon Wells, OF, Toronto and Dan Meyer, RP, Florida (7/20)
• Signed Scott Rolen, 3B, Toronto (7/21)
• Signed Jim Johnson, RP, Baltimore (7/23)
• Signed Mike Adams, RP, San Diego; Released Derek Holland, SP, Texas (7/30)
• Released Adams; Signed Holland (8/2)
• Released Scott Richmond, RP, Toronto (8/3)
• Signed Elvis Andrus, SS, Texas (8/12)
• Signed Chris Perez, RP, Cleveland; Released Nick Blackburn, RP, Minnesota and Rafael Furcal, SS, Los Angeles (8/27)
• Claimed Joba Chamberlain, SP, New York (AL) off waivers; Released James Loney, 1B, Los Angeles (9/7)
  

A great quote from my partner in crime's discussion of this year's draft, after Raffy Furcal went tenth overall, screwing up his plans to get a top-flight shortstop:

I had a fallback plan for missing out on Rollins. After careful consideration of injury profiles, team offensive characteristics, and player aging curves, I concluded that Raffy Furcal was going to have an only slightly sub-Rollins year.

What's amazing is that he was dead on balls accurate. Here are the players' stats for this year:

Rollins: .289 OBP, 17 HR, 80 R, 60 RBI, 25 SB's
Raffy: .255 OBP, 7 HR, 71 R, 38 RBI, 6 SB's

So yes, Furcal's only been about 1 grade lower than Rollins. The problem is that Jimmy's a D and Raffy's an F. Oops. (El Angelo)

But JJ Hardy, the consensus next-best SS out there, and the guyI ended up getting, managed to get an A--three of them, in fact, as he was sent to AAA in July. The SS position just cut a swath through the league this year. Looking back, there were 3 SS taken in the first round of this year's draft: the two winners above, and #2 overall pick Jose Reyes, who whipped up a .355/2 HR/18 R/15 RBI/11 SB shitsicle before hitting the DL for the season.

In fact, let's look back at the entire first round--nearly half of us missed completely with our first round picks (2 teams had 2 first-round picks; I'm removing the extras for purposes of ths discussion):

1. Albert Pujols: Hit; best player in the world; team that took him is in 2d.
2. Jose Reyes: Fail; team never in contention.
3. Miguel Cabrera: Hit; team near the money all season.
4. Prince Fielder: Hit; team near the money all season.
5. Jimmy Rollins: Fail; team's entire season pretty much an abortion.
6. Alfonso Soriano: Fail; at least I had the good sense to be worried about the pick at the time.
7. Josh Beckett: Fine; maybe the only non boom/bust pick in round 1.
8. Carl Crawford: Hit; team near the money all season.
10. Raffy Furcal: Fail; team cratered for first time since joining league.
12. David Ortiz: Fail; team still good as the Torkies continue to defy all predictive norms.

Five out of ten guys failed with their first pick, and that failure pretty well blew us out of contention. In fact, it looks like for all our fancy analysis here, all you really have to do to be in contention in this league is hit your first-round pick for a given season. Or, alternatively, be Tucker.

Unenviable Position

• Signed Franklin Guiterrez, OF, Cleveland; Released Jason Varitek, C, Boston (7/8)
• Signed Billy Butler, 1B, Kansas City; Released Scott Rolen, 3B, Cincy (7/18)
• Signed Adam LaRoche, 1B, Atlanta; Released Troy Percival, RP, Tampa (7/25)
• Released LaRoche and Glen Perkins, SP, Minnesota; Claimed Michael Saunders, OF, Seattle off waivers (7/29)
• Released Saunders; Signed Carlos Gonzalez, OF, Colorado (8/19)
• Signed Johan Santana, SP, Weill Cornell Medical Center; Released Luke Hochevar, SP, Kansas City (8/31)
  

Sound and noise aside, there's one great pickup here: Carlos Gonzalez, a great waiver wire snag for a team whose outfield is second outfielder is Milton F'ing Bradley. Gonzalez is a likely keeper and potentially a good player to have on the squad for the next 3 years. What more can you ask out of an August pickup? Great job Teddy. Because Michael Saunders was not the answer, much like every other player on this list. (El Angelo)

Yep, pleased with the Gonzo pickup. Between him and Johan, I'll be very interested to see how the '10 projections come out ths winter. (Teddy)

Recalcitrant Cobbler

• Traded Corey Hart, OF, Milwaukee to It's Enrico Palazzo for Kerry Wood, RP, Cleveland (8/5)
• Notably added: Andy Pettite, SP, New York (AL) (2x); Garrett Jones, OF, Pittsburgh; Billy Wagner, RP, Boston
  
• Notably dropped: Joba Chamberlain, SP, New York (AL); Francisco Liriano, SP, Minnesota
• Actually had on his roster for 26 hours: Carl The Truth Pavano, SP, Cleveland

For the record, there were 37 transaction lines for this team for this time period. However, many of them included adding and dropping the likes of Alfredo Aceves, John Lannannannann and a guy from Alabama, none of which I can get too worked up about. Regarding the players above, as I noted last week, I endorse dumping Hart, who's overrated and fairly replaceable. Now yes, the Kerry Wood experiment has had mixed results so far, but given that closers are overvalued in the league draft, it's a fine gamble to add a saves earner for this year and not have to waste a 3rd round pick on next year's CJ Wilson.

As for the the other transactions, I can't figure out which I'm more confused about, the decision to drop Joba Chamberlain, who wasn't worthless, or the choice to have Carl Pavano on the roster when a bar bet wasn't involved. I suppose the rationale is that the Joba Rules meant that he was getting de minimus good innings out of everyone's favorite Nebraskan this year, and he's not worth keeping at +1, but I'm not sure I agree with the latter. If the boy learns how to stop walking people, and he's a good postseason away from being someone you could suck Sahil into trading for. Besides, it's not like they needed the roster spot--it was converted into the ageless Andy Pettite. Why even bother? (El Angelo)

That's a big-time Go For It move there. Points for chutzpah, I guess, though I share your wonderment at the ditching of an asset. Feels like somebody would have given up something for him. (Teddy)

Transactions Analysis, Part I: Layoff Edition

It's been a month since we turned our gaze to a full-blown analysis of the partially because of vacation plans, and partially because the two authors both now have steady, gainful employment that actually requires their attention between business hours. So let's address the silly, mundane and occasionally productive in a two part TA. Might be lighter on the jokes, but quite quite heavy on the transactions. (El Angelo)

Eat, eat, ya f#cking jackals. (Teddy)

It's Enrico Palazzo

• Traded Kerry Wood, RP, Cleveland to Recalcitrant Cobbler for Corey Hart, OF, Milwaukee (8/5)

Months of picking on Andrew for being dead have resulted in him resurfacing out of nowhere to make a trade for a broken outfielder. Now granted, I think cashing in on Kerry Wood is not a bad move, because his entire value is in the most artificial of categories that a bottom feeding team doesn't need (saves) and he's eminently replaceable. He hasn't pitched well this year, and is one bad throw away from Draveckying his arm. So getting something for him was good. But Corey Hart? A little known fact is that Hart is overrated. Yes he's billed as a perennial 20-20 guy, but he doesn't walk, doesn't actually score or knock in a lot of runs, and is out for the foreseeable future with a stapled gut. He's a clear step below the likes of Matt Kemp and Curtis Granderson, and is probably a 3rd outfielder and a borderline keeper. So while I can't knock the trade in general, I have to ask whether this was really the best they could do for a middling closer, because multiple guys in contention need saves. (El Angelo)

These kind of trades are always tough to measure, because you have to balance the calculations Ang goes over against the cost of getting stuck with Wood for nothing. All of the Milwaukee supporting players regressed this year; to the extent that you still believe in them as a team, Hart has value as part of a potentially strong offense. If not, well, see above. (Teddy)

Wu Tang Financial

• Signed Joe Blanton, SP, Philly; Released Kevin Correia, SP, San Diego (7/11)
  
• Signed Josh Willingham, OF, Washington; Released Adam LaRoche, 1B, Multiple Teams (7/12)
  
• Signed Howie Kendrick, 2B, Anaheim; Released Blanton and Mike Lowell, Nutless Wonder, Boston (7/18)
  
• Signed Mark Teabag, 3B, Kansas City (7/24)
• Released Alberto Callaspo, MI, Kansas City (8/13)
  
• Released Teabag (8/18)
  

I have a healthy appreciation for being the owner of a team that's clearly not in the running for money this year and the then-inherent difficulty in managing a roster to build for the next year. Which is why these moves strike me as the definition of pointless. Are a single one of these players keepable on the most shallow of rosters? Hell, do any of them have upside? I mean, what's the purpose of bothering with Joe Blanton, to see if having him scores you free tickets to Kentucky basketball games? I'm befuddled, especially because this squad has a very tradeable chip (Lance Berkman) it should be actively shopping. (El Angelo)

Eh, there's something to be said for trying to improve your team even if you're out of it. Those red numbers get hard to look at every morning. Plus, as will become clear as we move through this, there hasn't been much in the way of sneaky keeper guys out there on the wire this year. (Teddy)

Mission Accomplished

• Signed Alcaides Escobar, SS, Milwaukee, Released Ramon Ramirez, SS, Boston (7/7)
• Released Edwin Encarnacion, 3B, Cincy (7/9)
• Traded Nick Swisher, 1B, New York [AL] and Max Scherzer, SP, Arizona to wormcheese mousebird for Michael Bourn, OF, Houston (7/25)
• Signed Mike Adams, RP, San Diego (8/10)
• Released Adams, Signed Jeff Clement, C, Pittsburgh (8/11)
• Signed Juan Rivera, OF, Anaheim (8/17)
• Signed Jim Thome, Util, Los Angeles; Released Johan St. Johan, SP, New York (NL) (8/28)
• Released Clement & Thome; Signed Sean Rodriguez, 2B, Tampa Bay (9/1)
  

De minimus crap, which is really saying something because it's my own team. I was happy to pick up Michael Bourn for a pitcher I really didn't need, and think Escobar and Rodriguez are interesting flyers for 2010. The problem is my middle infield's collapsed enough that they might have to play roles down the stretch this year. Gulp. (El Angelo)

You're lucky that this got delayed an extra couple of days, because I had my foot all the way back ready to kick you on the decision to pickup Jim Thome immediately following his move to become the world's oldest and fattest pinch hitter in LA. Also, although I agree with the trade from your perspective, since you're in the mode of targeting specific scoring categories, note that Nick Swisher is above the aforementioned Lance Berkman in the 1B rankings this year. (Teddy)

The Spam Avengers

• Traded Aramis Ramirez., 3B, Chicago [NL] and their 4th round pick to Le Dupont Torkies for Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, Washington and their 3rd round pick (7/8)
• Signed Lastings Milledge, OF, Pittsburgh; Released Andrew Miller, SP, Florida (8/6)

I love the draft pick swap that's part of this trade. There's a realistic chance Alex will finish in last and Tucker in first, meaning Alex will move up exactly one pick. What a coup. In their next trade, they should include an exchange of Ding Dongs. (El Angelo)

I love that Lastings Milledge is in a position to break yet another heart in this league. He's like a combination of Amber Heard and chlamydia. (Teddy)

wormcheese mousebird

• Traded Brandon Inge, C, Detroit and Mike Cuddyer, 1B, Minnesota for Denard Span, OF, Minnesota and Matt Garza, SP, Tampa Bay (7/9)
• Traded Michael Bourn, OF, Houston to Mission Accomplished for Max Scherzer, SP, Arizona and Nick Swisher, 1B, New York (AL) (7/25)
• Traded Adam Dunn, OF, Washington and Ryan Franklin, RP, St. Louis and his 7th round pick to Le Dupont Torkies for Chad Billingsley, SP, Los Angeles and Jonathan Broxton, RP, Los Angeles and his 3rd and 5th round picks (7/30)
• Traded Joe Nathan, RP, Minnesota to Aroids Anonymous for Curtis Granderson, OF, Detroit and his 5th round pick (8/9)
• Notably added Cody Ross, OF, Florida
  
• Notably dropped Cameron Maybin, OF, Florida; Chris Young, OF, Arizona; Alex Gordon, 3B, Kansas City, Juan Rivera, OF, Anaheim and Travis Hafner, 1B, Cleveland

There's a lot of player movement here, and by and large, I like it. Given that Joe Nathan was going to occupy three slots next year (as a closer), Bourn, Cuddyer and Inge are not keepers and Ryan Franklin smacks of fluke year closer, meaning the only real player they're losing is Adam Dunn. In return they get 2 stud pitchers (Billingsley & Garza), a flyer starter (Scherzer), a good closer (Broxton), and a nice 3rd outfielder (Granderson). They're a good draft away from being dangerous next year, which got easier by adding 4 picks. Outside of the odd release of Maybin, nice work. (El Angelo)

This team appears to have buckled down and learned some valuable lessons about cheesegetting from its mouseworm. In fact, you can make a case that the second-half GM award goes to the earlycheeses. They've managed to reshuffle their roster and set themselves up for next year while improving several spots in this year's standings. While there's a better-than-average chance that they'll blow it by drafting Esix Snead in round 2 next year, they can be proud of the past few months. (Teddy)

The Loose Bowels

• Signed Yadir Molina, C, St. Louis; Released Jake Fox, SP, Chicago (NL) (7/9)
  
• Wasted everyone's time with Elvis Andrus, SS, Texas, Derek Lowe Face, SP, Atlanta and Brian Matusz, SP, Baltimore (multiple times)
• Released Edinson Volquez, SP, Cincy (8/3)
• Signed Brett Cecil, SP, Toronto and Tom Gorzellany, SP, Pittsburgh; Released Molina and Cody Ross, OF, Florida (8/5)
• Signed Mike Cuddyer, OF, Minnesota; Released Josh Outman, SP, Oakland and Rickie Weeks, 2B, Milwaukee (8/10)
• Signed Trent Oeltjen, OF, Arizona (8/15)
• Released Oeitjen and Cecil; Signed Signed Kyle Blanks, 1B, San Diego and John Smoltz, SP, St. Louis (8/23)

As someone who spent the past two years in the fantasy cellar, I fully understand and appreciate what our Beloved Commisioner is going through here. His season's in the shitter. He has caught absolutely zero breaks. He's staring at a top-2 pick next year with the option of taking either David Wright's broken skull or Johan Santana's elbow chips. So it's natural to grasp at straws, see what's available, and who knows, maybe you'll net a keeper for the next year from the proverbial scrap heap. It's happened before, and might happen again.

That's all fine and reasonable. SO WHY THE FUCK ARE YOU PICKING UP JOHN SMOLTZ???!?? (El Angelo)

Yes, all true. Though I'm more intrigued by the Trent Oeltjen move. I, like all fantasy gurus, adhere rigorously to the philosophy that it's vitally important to keep at least one 26 year-old Australian on your roster at all times. However, in the past I've only ever applied that belief to fantasy cricket leagues. It never occurred to me to incorporate that bit of obvious wisdom into baseball leagues. That the commish chose to do so specifically by calling up a 26 y/o Australian with zero MLB at-bats before this year only cements his genius. (Teddy)

Race Preview: The 2009 Travers

While the Kentucky Derby is the most famous and prestigious race and the Belmont is the Test of Champions, the real race for determining the champion three year old colt is, somewhat surprisingly, the Preakness. Twelve of the last 13 horses to win the Preakness won the Eclipse Award for the champion 3 year old colt. The exception--Red Bullet in 2000--was a sensible exception, because that was the only graded stakes race he won that year (he was injured after the race). That year's champion was Tiznow, who didn't even race in the Triple Crown, and usurped Fusaichi Pegasus for the crown by thrashing him in the Breeders Cup Classic.

So what does this have to do with this year's Travers? Well, this year will be the second time since Louis Quatorze won the Preakness in 1996 that the Preakness winner won't be crowned the champion 3yo colt, since the winner, Rachel Alexandra, is obviously ineligible for the award. Given that no 3yo colts has won more than one Grade 1 race this year, there has to be extra emphasis on the Travers, especially because it matches up a couple of horses with great potential, a classic winner, and a late bloomer. (Sadly, Mine That Bird had to be withdrawn because he hasn't recovered from last week's epiglottis surgery.)

Let's do our normal countdown for this year's Travers. It'll be brief--there are only seven horses running. For the record, while we like some horses better than others, for a change, we have a field where every horse belongs, and there isn't a single entrant that would be a shocker to hit the board.

We Look Like Outsiders

7. Our Edge. While Nick Zito did win this race five years ago with Birdstone, that was with a horse who was already a classic winner and had a graded stakes win at Saratoga. This guy's a front-running, stretching out sprinter whose best race came against absolutely nobody in Delaware Park. He'd be an intriguing entrant in the King's Bishop on the undercard, but looks like pace fodder here.

6. Hold Me Back. If you squint enough, you can make a case for this horse winning--good breeding, great connections, and really only 0-for-1 on a fast dirt track. Heck, we may use him in our multi-race bets at 20-1 or so. But when Bill Mott tells you he's taking a shot for kicks, you're supposed to nod appreciatively and move on.

Be Very, Very Careful

5. Charitable Man. This guy got a ton of hype for winning the Peter Pan (without meriting any), and backed it up by running like crap in the Belmont. Now he comes in off a good-on-paper 3rd in the Jim Dandy, that upon examination, was utterly bland and far inferior to the two in front of him. Why should you take 9-2 on him here when he's done nothing to earn it?

4. Kensei. This guy won us a good chunk of change on Belmont day when he ran third at 30-1 in the Woody Stephens. He's followed that up with two pretty nice wins in the Dwyer and Jim Dandy, but in both cases, he won without being particularly impressive, and looks solid more than spectacular. Definitely has a chance, but looks like he might be a horse that's already peaked and isn't really Grade I material.

3. Quality Road. We won't dispute that he's probably the most talented horse in the race, as he's set two track records and has 4 three-digit Gowanus Speed Figures. His only loss was in a race where he wasn't 100% healthy. So what's the problem? We're not sure he's ready for this spot. His prep off a 4 month layoff was a 6 1/2 furlong sprint that he won easily. Now he's stretching out 3 1/2 furlongs to go a mile and a quarter, which he's not really bred for, an has to contend with a fair amount of early speed. He could romp, but at 7-5, we're looking elsewhere.

The Key Contender

2. Summer Bird. The Belmont winner comes into this race much the same way he came into the Belmont, off a so-so performance in the slop where he didn't get a chance to fire his best shot. This is the 6th race of his career, and he's perfectly bred for the distance. He's clearly one of the better colts in this class, the question is whether or not he rises to the challenge and takes the definitive lead for the Eclipse Award. We say he just falls short to an up and comer.

The Upset Winner

1. Warrior's Reward. While everyone is quick to note that Quality Road has multiple 100+ GSF's, this guy actually is tied with Quality Road for the highest figure in the field. The reason we like him is two fold. First, his last two races were both good under poor circumstances--he missed the break in the Dwyer and rallied stoutly for a good third, and was contesting the pace in the Jim Dandy, and wilted late. We think he'll get a better trip under Calvin Borel this time, sitting just off the pace. Second, we like Borel, and we especially like that had he been forced to choose between this horse and the Kentucky Derby winner, he was picking Warrior's Reward. This is the other horse with huge upside in the race, and we think he puts it all together on Saturday. Which, of course, will just further muddle the Eclipse Award question.

As for the strong undercard on Travers day, we like Sky Haven to pull off a small upset in the Victory Ride, Captain's Lover in the Ballston Spa (if it stays on the grass), Munnings in the Kings Bishop, and Informed Decision in the Ballerina. Good luck to all!

(And for those looking for TA, probably tomorrow.)

Sleeper Horse of the Year Candidate?

We're about 60% of the way through the meaningful horse racing season, and there are exactly three candidates for Horse of the Year. Barring something less foreseeable than Mine That Bird's Derby win, there are no other potential HOTY candidates. Who's in the running?

1. Rachel Alexandra. The prohibitive favorite at this juncture, she's 7-for-7 this year, has won four straight G1's, and has a pair of wins over the boys in the Preakness and Haskell. She's legitimately 1-5 to win HOTY, and looks like she's the best filly since Personal Ensign.

2. Zenyatta. She's done nothing wrong with year with three wins this year, two G1's, and is still undefeated in her career. The problem is that she's done nothing exciting by staying on the West Coast and appears to be ducking Rachel Alexandra. She has no shot to win this award without shipping east to face RA, which seems unlikely. If she changes her mind, ships, and beats RA, then she's got a shot.

3. Gio Ponti. The horse that no casual fan has heard of, and the real sleeper member of this trio. He's the only horse besides RA this year to win 4 Grade 1's, with wins in 4 turf stakes from 1 mile to 1 3/8 miles. He won the Arlington Million in fantastic fashion on Saturday, and looks to be legitimately one of the best turf horses we've had in a while.

Still, a male turf horse has no real shot against RA for HOTY. Unless...he ventures a little outside of his comfort zone and goes for the Breeders Cup Classic. Ridiculous? Not at all--the race is being run on synthetics this year, and as we saw last year with Raven's Pass, turf horses often like synthetic surfaces. Heck, his breeding even indicates that he'd like non-dirt surfaces.

So let's say he caps off his year by winning another G1 turf race and then the Breeders Cup Classic. Is that enough to take down RA? Depends. If she falters in her last few starts, then maybe it's worthy of consideration. If she does something else ridiculous such as winning the Travers or the Woodward, however, she can retire, make the Hall of Fame and wrap up HOTY before Labor Day. Which frankly, would be amazing.