The 2010 Eclipse Awards

We don't get an Eclipse Award ballot...but we should! Okay, we shouldn't. But we see no reason not to wrap up a season of horse racing by putting forth who we think should get the Eclipse Awards in the major horse racing categories. We're going to fill these out 1-2-3, because in some cases, it's worth tipping the cap to those who had good years but not spectacular years. Let's get to it.

2yo fillies

With the 2 year olds, it's tough to not vote for the Breeders Cup winner unless it's a bomb, a la Vale of York last year. Awesome Feather was undefeated and beat all the opposition of note in the Breeders Cup, so she wins here easily over R Heat Lightning, who ran second in the JF Fillies. We'll give the third slot to More Than Real, who won the JF Turf.

1. Awesome Feather 2. R Heat Lightning 3. More Than Real

2yo colts

If Uncle Mo doesn't win this unanimously, the defecting voters should be publicly humiliated. Boys at Toscanova won the Hopeful and ran second in the Juvenile and is an easy silver medalist. For third place, we'll go with To Honor and Serve, who's the second choice in Derby future books now off his wins in the Nashua and Remsen.

1. Uncle Mo 2. Boys at Toscanova 3. To Honor and Serve

3yo colts

Lookin at Lucky won the Preakness, Haskell, Rebel and Indiana Derby, and really only ran one bad race all year (the Kentucky Derby, over a sloppy mess). While we think Eskendereya was the most talented horse, LAL was the most accomplished and takes this easily.

Who else finishes out the ballot? We can't really go with Eskendereya who didn't race after Easter. Super Saver and Drosselmeyer look like 1-race flukes and are out. So let's go a little out of the box. Paddy O'Prado ran a bang-up 3rd in the Derby and won the Secretariat and was probably the best turfer of this class. For the 3rd slot, we'll go with Sidney's Candy, who quietly won five graded stakes this year but flopped against top class in the BC Mile and Derby.

1. Lookin at Lucky 2. Paddy O'Prado 3. Sidney's Candy

3yo fillies

This was neck and neck between Havre de Grace and Blind Luck all year but Blind Luck's place finish in the Distaff clinched her the title over a pretty good foe. We'll give the third slot to Switch, who came close to Zenyatta, was an excellent 2nd in the Filly Sprint and just won impressively in the La Brea last Sunday.

1. Blind Luck 2. Havre de Grace 3. Switch

Older Males

Blame won the Classic and wins this easily. Quality Road won the Donn, Met Mile and Woodward and was the best horse in the country through Memorial Day, so he gets second place. There are zero interesting options for third place, as Richard's Kid's two Grade 1 wins in California bore us to tears, Battle Plan retired too early, Haynesfield and Dakota Phone each won exactly one race of consequence and Gio Ponti was 2-for-7 this year. I guess Richard's Kid? Sure.

1. Blame 2. Quality Road 3. Richard's Kid

Older Females

What's amazing is that Rachel Alexandra isn't even one of the 5 horses we'd consider for a slot here. The top slot is easy and Unrivaled Belle tops Life at Ten in the balloting for winning the biggest race of the year. But we want to include on our ballot the horse with the second most G1 wins in America this year: Proviso. We'll talk more about her in a few minutes.

1. Zenyatta 2. Proviso 3. Unrivaled Belle

Turf Males

Blech. Gio Ponti was 2-for-7 this year with his best race probably being his 2nd place finish in the Mile. Winchester won 2 Grade 1's this year but both were at Belmont over middling competition. Dangerous Midge did win the Turf, but that's all he won this year. Paddy O'Prado would have been interesting had he even beaten older horses, but he never did. We were tempting to register a protest vote for Turf Sprint winner Chamberlain Bridge, and then remembered he wasn't very good.

When in doubt, take the Breeders Cup winner. That's what we're going with.

1. Dangerous Midge 2. Gio Ponti 3. Winchester

Turf Females

Shared Account gets the third slot here based off her win in the F&M Turf. The debate for the top spot is between Proviso's body of work--4 Grade 1 wins, including one over Shared Account--versus Goldikova's lone G1 win in the Mile. We're not taking into account her prior accomplishments because Eclipse Awards are only based off what a horse did this year. But still, Goldikova won four Grade 1's across the globe this year, won the Mile handily, and beat Proviso in the process. In fact, it wasn't close. Good enough.

1. Goldikova 2. Proviso 3. Shared Account

Female Sprinter

Dubai Majesty's win in the Filly Sprint gives her this easily. We can't find much better than the aforementioned Switch or 3yo filly Champagne d'Oro, who won the Acorn and Test, so we'll put them in the other slots.

1. Dubai Majesty 2. Switch 3. Champagne d'Oro

Male Sprinter

The question is Majesticperfection versus Big Drama. The former beat Big Drama in the Vanderbilt before retiring with an injury. Since then, Big Drama ran a bang-up second in the Forego--at 7 furlongs, not 6--and won the BC Sprint easily. On the rest of the year, he won the Smile Sprint and an ungraded race, whereas Majesticperfection won...well, a race in Iowa, a maiden race, and two allowance races. In other words, not much.

Can you justify taking Big Drama when he lost their only heads up battle? If the campaigns and accomplishments are roughly equivalent, absolutely not. But we don't think they are and think that the balance of Big Drama's year offsets the loss in the Vanderbilt. And we'll give him the vote. For 3rd, Discreetly Mine was the best 3yo sprinter this year by a lot.

1. Big Drama 2. Majesticperfection 3. Discreetly Mine

Trainer

Is there any way Todd Pletcher loses this after winning the Derby, 2 Breeders Cup races and a total of 14 Grade 1's? Didn't think so. For the place slot, many would go with John Shirreffs for his work on Zenyatta and Harmonious, but John Sadler won seven Grade 1's with different horses. That's pretty damn good.

1. Todd Pletcher 2. John Sadler 3. John Shirreffs

Jockey

The rider with the most G1's is Mike Smith (12), but he got 75% of them on Proviso and Zenyatta. Not interested. By contrast, John Velazquez and Garrett Gomez rode a bunch of different horses to G1 victories and were the best big-money riders in the nation. We also like Joel Rosario winning 10 Grade 1's on 10 different horses--very impressive.

1. Garrett Gomez 2. John Velazquez 3. Joel Rosario

Owner

The Mosses will win this in a romp for keeping Zenyatta in training this year. The owner that probably had the best year was WinStar, which won the Derby and Belmont, but we're fine with honoring the owners that gave racing the best press. For the third slot...sheesh, I dunno, how about Mike Pegram?

1. Jerry & Ann Moss 2. WinStar Farms 3. Mike Pegram

Horse of the Year

The great debate: Zenyatta versus Blame. Okay, last year's was a better debate between Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta because the two never faced. We think this year's debate is really easy: how can you not vote for Blame when he beat Zenyatta in their head-to-head matchup? Here are the arguments for Zenyatta, none of which hold water:

• Her career accomplishments. Completely irrelevant. It's Horse of the Year, not Horse of the Career.

• Her publicity to racing. So? It's a question of who accomplished more this year, not who had racing in the press more. If fame and publicity were a factor, Barbaro would have won in 2006 by a mile. He wasn't even close.

• She came close in the Classic. Indeed, I think many of us appreciated Zenyatta more after the Classic even though she lost. But she still lost to Blame. If she had lost to Etched, this would be a different story on a couple of levels.

• She had a better year. Essentially, this is the Big Drama/Majesticperfection argument all over again. The argument is that Zenyatta had a better year because she won 5 Grade 1's to Blame's 3, and won at 4 racetracks to his 3. (This completely ignores the fact that 3 of her races were in Southern California...but whatever.) But let's break this down a little, because this is really the question. Zenyatta won 5 races against fillies and mares only. Blame won 4 races and 3 Grade 1's in open company. He beat top caliber horses, such as Quality Road, Battle Plan, Fly Down, Lookin at Lucky and Haynesfield. The best horse that Zenyatta beat in her non-Classic races was either Switch or St. Trinians, either of which would have been 50-1 in the Classic and a non-factor.

To everyone who thinks that it's a blemish on her resume for Zenyatta to have never won HOTY, it's not. Ruffian never won it. Personal Ensign never won it. Goldikova, who's the best filly to race stateside in a decade, never won it. It happens. And Blame should be the winner.

1. Blame 2. Zenyatta 3. Quality Road

Breeders Cup Preview Part V: The Classic

Assuming the entire field actually goes to post, this is shaping up as one of the best Classics in recent memory. You have 2 Eclipse Award winners. You have the best horse from this year's class and the two best horses from last year's class. You have a top turf horse trying the dirt. You have a scrappy New York bred. You even have an intriguing Asian horse.

So the Classic merits a little more attention than the synopsis we gave the other 13 races. Let's go back to our traditional countdown from bottom to top.

Why Are You Doing This?

12. Pleasant Prince. The highlights of his career have been wins in the Oklahoma Derby and the Ohio Derby. His biggest mistake to date was not trying to complete the trifecta by running in the Osaka Derby. Entering the starting gate on Saturday is going to be his second biggest mistake.

11. First Dude. We'll save our invective about the Palins for another time and simply note that he's still 1-for-11 in his career and is early speed in a race filled with...early speed. See you next year.

Good Horse, Wrong Race

10. Paddy O'Prado. They're going to do a rain dance at Dale Romans' barn, because this horse's only good effort on the dirt was his 3rd in the Derby when the track was a soupy mess. Sadly, Saturday's forecast is only for freezing cold weather. He's developed into a very reliable turf horse, and would be competitive in the Turf, so their next step is to...go back to the dirt and take on Zenyatta? Are they gluttons for punishment?

9. Musket Man. He's a dirt performer, but has failed to indicate that he can stay more than 9 furlongs. Heck, he only has one win at more than 1 1/16 miles: the Illinois Derby last year against nobody of note. Didn't they invent the Dirt Mile for horses like this?

Too Much Early Speed

8. Haynesfield. Yeah, yeah, yeah, Jockey Club Gold Cup winner, 9-for-13, early speed, underrated. Whatever. He's never run outside of New York (let alone won) and is a need the lead horse in a race where there are at least 3 other who want to be on the front end. Just don't see it.

7. Quality Road. We're less worried about the stamina issues than others--his two races at 10 furlongs that he lost both had excuses (slop, layoffs, etc.) and weren't bad. We're more concerned that he's going to get caught up in the early pace with Haynesfield and First Dude, especially from the inside post, and have nothing left at the top of the stretch. Also, we're completely unconvinced that this guy is in as good form as he was this winter/spring. Since winning the Met Mile, he lost the Whitney when everything went his way and had a completely meaningless (and unimpressive) win in the Woodward against horrible horses. And now comes in off a 2-month layoff. For this, you want 5-1?

Real Contenders We Don't Like

6. Espoir City. The history of Japanese shippers into this race is unimpressive; Casino Drive, Taiki Blizzard and Personal Rush were three who failed to do anything. But this guy at least won the Japan Cup last year, so he has class on his side. We're more concerned with the lack of experience at 10 furlongs, because he's never run the distance. The horses that have won the Classic without ever running at the distance are Ghostzapper, Saint Liam, and Zenyatta--two of the three best horses this century, and a guy who was a solid performer in a weak year. If he's a Hall of Fame talent, we'll happily concede that we're wrong. But we doubt it.

5. Lookin at Lucky. We actually admire this guy for being consistent and usually firing his best shot. But again, it's a tall order for a 3 year old to win the Classic in his first start against elders--only Concern has ever done it (in a weak year, which this isn't). Heck, he hasn't faced a good horse since winning the Haskell in August, and depending on how you want to characterize the 3yo crop, he hasn't faced a good horse all year. He's honest and has yet to run a bad race, but we think he's going to be overbet.

Longshots for Exotics

4. Fly Down. Trainer Nick Zito's had a goofy year. He's had horses (including this one) run in the money in the Fountain of Youth, Wood, Preakness, Belmont, Jim Dandy, Travers, and Jockey Club Gold Cup, but not win any of those races. His biggest stakes win was probably Morning Line in the Pennsylvania Derby. Given this guy doesn't mind the 10 furlong distance, will be coming from the back of the pack late and is in relatively good form, it seems appropriate that Zito would finish the year with a clunk up piece of the purse in the year's biggest race at 30-1.

3. Etched. This horse has had tons of promise and only a modest payoff to date, as he's lacking the proverbial "big" performance. He's 7-for-9 in his career, has won 4 graded stakes races, and is impeccably bred (the good sire Forestry, dam is BC Distaff winner Unbridled Elaine). He's only taken one real shot against the top of the racing world: last year's Clark, where he bombed at short odds. This year he's run twice and won both times (an ungraded stakes races and the Monmouth Cup), stalking the pace and winning tough stretch battles. Now it's his third start of the year and he's taking on the big guns again while training up a storm and in great form. Yes, he'd be a strange winner, because it's rare for a horse to win the Classic without a prior Grade 1 win (in fact, we think it's never happened). But at 20-1 or so, he's very live for exactas and triples.

Down Goes the Champ

2. Zenyatta. Only an idiot would pick against a horse that's 19-for-19. Well, here are your idiots. The Queen obviously has a shot and if she wins, it'll be one of the greatest moments in racing history. But here's what she's up against:

(i) Shipping to Churchill Downs. Every indication that we have is that she's not the best shipper, otherwise Shireffs would have done it more than twice.

(ii) The toughest field she's ever faced. People like Joe Drape want to hype last year's Classic field, which is almost funny. Last year's Classic was on a synthetic surface where good dirt horses like Summer Bird spun their wheels and was more akin to a turf race: grass stars Gio Ponti and Twice Over ran 2nd and 3rd. This field has the two best horses from last year's 3yo class, the best horse from this year's crop of 3 year olds, a turf horse every bit as good as Gio Ponti, and even a Japanese invader. It's not going to be easy.

(iii) Her results this year tell us nothing. Yes, we know that Zenyatta only does what's needed to win. But her speed figures are meh and she's run against horses that would all be 40-1 or higher in this race. Last year she beat Life is Sweet, Cocoa Beach and Lethal Heat; this year the only horse of note she beat was St. Trinians. And her figures haven't improved at all.

Contrary to most others, we don't care about the switch to a dirt surface--we think she'll handle it fine. And we think she'll come roaring late. But we think she'll fall short too...

The Pick

1. Blame. The biggest hole in Blame's resume is he's not Zenyatta. He's bred to get the distance, loves the track, is in good shape, and is going to get a perfect set up with a good amount of speed in the race. Which he doesn't even need--he won the Whitney and Stephen Foster this year as a closer when the pace was lackadaisical and the distance was shorter. We're willing to excuse his last race because of the two month layoff and Haynesfield freaking on the lead on his home track. But now he gets two turns and a return home and an honest pace to run out. He'll get first run on Zenyatta. Can he hold her off? We think so.

Good luck to all and enjoy the races!

Race Preview: The 2009 Travers

While the Kentucky Derby is the most famous and prestigious race and the Belmont is the Test of Champions, the real race for determining the champion three year old colt is, somewhat surprisingly, the Preakness. Twelve of the last 13 horses to win the Preakness won the Eclipse Award for the champion 3 year old colt. The exception--Red Bullet in 2000--was a sensible exception, because that was the only graded stakes race he won that year (he was injured after the race). That year's champion was Tiznow, who didn't even race in the Triple Crown, and usurped Fusaichi Pegasus for the crown by thrashing him in the Breeders Cup Classic.

So what does this have to do with this year's Travers? Well, this year will be the second time since Louis Quatorze won the Preakness in 1996 that the Preakness winner won't be crowned the champion 3yo colt, since the winner, Rachel Alexandra, is obviously ineligible for the award. Given that no 3yo colts has won more than one Grade 1 race this year, there has to be extra emphasis on the Travers, especially because it matches up a couple of horses with great potential, a classic winner, and a late bloomer. (Sadly, Mine That Bird had to be withdrawn because he hasn't recovered from last week's epiglottis surgery.)

Let's do our normal countdown for this year's Travers. It'll be brief--there are only seven horses running. For the record, while we like some horses better than others, for a change, we have a field where every horse belongs, and there isn't a single entrant that would be a shocker to hit the board.

We Look Like Outsiders

7. Our Edge. While Nick Zito did win this race five years ago with Birdstone, that was with a horse who was already a classic winner and had a graded stakes win at Saratoga. This guy's a front-running, stretching out sprinter whose best race came against absolutely nobody in Delaware Park. He'd be an intriguing entrant in the King's Bishop on the undercard, but looks like pace fodder here.

6. Hold Me Back. If you squint enough, you can make a case for this horse winning--good breeding, great connections, and really only 0-for-1 on a fast dirt track. Heck, we may use him in our multi-race bets at 20-1 or so. But when Bill Mott tells you he's taking a shot for kicks, you're supposed to nod appreciatively and move on.

Be Very, Very Careful

5. Charitable Man. This guy got a ton of hype for winning the Peter Pan (without meriting any), and backed it up by running like crap in the Belmont. Now he comes in off a good-on-paper 3rd in the Jim Dandy, that upon examination, was utterly bland and far inferior to the two in front of him. Why should you take 9-2 on him here when he's done nothing to earn it?

4. Kensei. This guy won us a good chunk of change on Belmont day when he ran third at 30-1 in the Woody Stephens. He's followed that up with two pretty nice wins in the Dwyer and Jim Dandy, but in both cases, he won without being particularly impressive, and looks solid more than spectacular. Definitely has a chance, but looks like he might be a horse that's already peaked and isn't really Grade I material.

3. Quality Road. We won't dispute that he's probably the most talented horse in the race, as he's set two track records and has 4 three-digit Gowanus Speed Figures. His only loss was in a race where he wasn't 100% healthy. So what's the problem? We're not sure he's ready for this spot. His prep off a 4 month layoff was a 6 1/2 furlong sprint that he won easily. Now he's stretching out 3 1/2 furlongs to go a mile and a quarter, which he's not really bred for, an has to contend with a fair amount of early speed. He could romp, but at 7-5, we're looking elsewhere.

The Key Contender

2. Summer Bird. The Belmont winner comes into this race much the same way he came into the Belmont, off a so-so performance in the slop where he didn't get a chance to fire his best shot. This is the 6th race of his career, and he's perfectly bred for the distance. He's clearly one of the better colts in this class, the question is whether or not he rises to the challenge and takes the definitive lead for the Eclipse Award. We say he just falls short to an up and comer.

The Upset Winner

1. Warrior's Reward. While everyone is quick to note that Quality Road has multiple 100+ GSF's, this guy actually is tied with Quality Road for the highest figure in the field. The reason we like him is two fold. First, his last two races were both good under poor circumstances--he missed the break in the Dwyer and rallied stoutly for a good third, and was contesting the pace in the Jim Dandy, and wilted late. We think he'll get a better trip under Calvin Borel this time, sitting just off the pace. Second, we like Borel, and we especially like that had he been forced to choose between this horse and the Kentucky Derby winner, he was picking Warrior's Reward. This is the other horse with huge upside in the race, and we think he puts it all together on Saturday. Which, of course, will just further muddle the Eclipse Award question.

As for the strong undercard on Travers day, we like Sky Haven to pull off a small upset in the Victory Ride, Captain's Lover in the Ballston Spa (if it stays on the grass), Munnings in the Kings Bishop, and Informed Decision in the Ballerina. Good luck to all!

(And for those looking for TA, probably tomorrow.)