Thursday, August 28, 2008

We Have...a Title and Release Date?

As most Generation X or younger sports fans who troll the Interweb and blogosphere know, Bill Simmons has taken the summer off to work on his long-delayed book, while gracing us with the occasional podcast. Some people have grumped about this, but hey, whatever gets you writing. Well, according to Amazon, the good Mr. Simmons has a title for his tome: "The Best Basketball Book Ever Written", and will be exactly 336 pages. The site also notes that the book is going to be released on May 5, 2009. Now, I confess to knowing absolutely nothing about the book publishing process, but this is a good eight months out. I have no idea if this means that he's still got a chunk of writing to do, if the editorial/fact-checking/revision/publishing in hardcover process takes that long, or if they're lining up the release to coincide with the NBA playoffs and a summer book tour. Any of that is possible. Still, given the somewhat-distant release date that resembles a gestation period, it's worth questioning just how much Bill will be "back" come September, especially given the frosty few months he and tWWL had earlier this year.

Friday, August 22, 2008

Travers Stakes Preview

Quick: name the oldest graded stakes race in America. It's not the Kentucky Derby, Preakness, Belmont, or the Santa Anita Derby. It's the Travers, also known as the Mid-Summer Derby, run at a mile and a quarter (same distance as the Kentucky Derby) at beautiful Saratoga Race Track in upstate New York, and it's this Saturday. To the surprise of nobody in racing, Derby-Preakness winner Big Brown is sitting this race out. The connections are using as their excuse that the Haskell took a lot out of him, but even more to the point, there's no upside in him running. He's already beaten almost every 3 year old of consequence; why risk looking bad by losing to a bunch of them in the Travers? Instead, he's going to a ready-made grass race and will then go to the Breeders Cup Classic.

This doesn't mean the Travers stinks; to the contrary, it's a fascinating betting race with 12 entries who have had various levels of success this year, and very few of which have run all that quickly. Let's break them down from 12 to 1. Some of these names will be familiar from the Triple Crown Trail, others, not so much.

Thanks But No Thanks

12. Tizbig. Trained by Hall of Famer Allen Jerkens, who knows how to get a longshot into the winner's circle, he's the opposite of a conservatively managed horse, as he ran 2nd on Sunday. Yes, earlier this week. He looks like cheap speed that will ensure a quick pace and nothing more.

11. Cool Coal Man. Nick Zito still keeps telling us this horse is good, despite him having done absolutely nothing of merit since March. I'm sure he's a lovely animal and I'd be privileged to own and pet him, but at some point you need to show improvement. If anything, he's regressed.

10. Tres Borrachos. This horse's name is Spanish for 'three drunks'. I have just given you all of his good qualities.

9. Court Vision. This colt can been called a lot of things fairly accurately, none of them flattering: money-burner, cocktease, hanger, grinder, loser, overhyped, bust. Now he draws post 12 and has to move back from grass to dirt while trying to shed all of those labels. I would not bite.

Don't Let History Fool You

8. Da'Tara. Hey the Belmont winner! Yes. He followed that up by running dead last in the Jim Dandy, the prep race for this. The wiseguy circuit will try to tell you how Albert the Great rebounded off a bad Jim Dandy to run 2nd in the Travers in 2000 when the pace scenario was better. True. The problem is I don't think the pace scenario will be any better here, thanks to Tizbig. After 6 furlongs of being pressed, I look for him to start wilting.

7. Macho Again. As every telecaster on ESPN, TVG and all racing shows will tell you, the last three winners of the Jim Dandy have won the Travers. The streak stops here. His last race wasn't awful, but he was staggering a bit at the end, and would have been caught by Pyro had they run another 50 feet. That race smacks of the type of effort from which an overachiever regresses.

The Odd Ducks

6. Harlem Rocker. Hyped by everyone after winning the Withers and beating quick sprinter J Be K, he skipped the Preakness to point for the Canadian Triple Crown, whereupon he promptly flopped, albeit on a synthetic track. He came back and won his last on a regular dirt track, which you would think would make him competitive, except that he ran it painfully slowly. It's also worth noting historically that multiple horses from Canadian Triple Crown races have tried the Grade 1's in the US and failed miserably: Awesome Again did little until he was a 4 year old, and Archer's Bay, Wando and Wild Desert are cautionary tales. While I'm remiss to knock off a horse simply based on the history of his countrymen, he'll be around 4-1 while not being all that fast and having history against him. Look elsewhere.

5. Colonel John. We'll refer you back to our articles here and here where we note that this guy is a synthetic track freak and we have no idea how he'll do on a dirt track. Four months later, nothing has changed. His Derby effort was a rough trip that showed nothing one way or the other, and his last race was an oddball third on a synthetic surface. So we still have no idea how he'll do in a fair race on the dirt. You want to take 9-2 on that when he hasn't hit a triple digit Gowanus Speed Figure? Didn't think so.

The Price Plays

4. Amped. Hmmm. This guy's going to be the longest shot on the board, but hear me out on why he could hit the board at 40-1. Many criticize Nick Zito for sending in horses that have no shot to do anything, but the last two times he received that criticism, Da'Tara won the Belmont and Coal Play just lost the Haskell. He knows there's going to be an honest pace here, hurting one of his horses (Da'Tara). He probably knows that Coal Man is a plodder. So why not take a shot with a horse that actually can close a little and will get pace to run at? I'm not endorsing him for the win spot, just for underneath in exotics.

3. Tale of Ekati. Yeah yeah, he's almost as bad a tease as Court Vision. Well, not quite: he did win a Grade 1 this year in the Wood. He exits a puzzling Jim Dandy where he didn't finish close to the winners but made a strong middle move that got him nowhere fast. While the move meant little in terms of the race itself, it's the kind of move that indicates he may move forward in his next effort. He should sit a decent trip here, and he's one to use at a fair price underneath.

The Prime Contenders

2. Pyro. For better or for worse, after Big Brown, he's been the second-best 3yo colt this year. He did win a pair of prep races for the Derby, and won his comeback race in the Northern Dancer (albeit over nobody) and ran a creditable second to Macho Again in the Jim Dandy. And every indication is that he'll improve on that race and with the extra furlong. So why are we picking him to finish behind...

1. Mambo In Seattle? Price aside, it's a simple upside calculation. I firmly believe we've seen what Pyro can do. I don't think we've seen this horse's best yet by far. Perfectly bred, he's never been out of the exacta on a dirt track, and comes in from expert connections in Neil Howard. He ran faster than Pyro on Jim Dandy day in the Henry Walton, and it's typical for Howard horses to blossom in late summer/fall. The Grasshopper comparisons to last year's runner up aren't great actually--this is going to be a better horse than Grasshopper, who's done little this year to backup his 2nd in the Travers. Look for this guy to take a big step forward today, and make himself not only a fun prospect for the fall season, but also the best 4yo come next season.

Good luck to everyone and enjoy the race! If you're checking out the entire card, give looks to Porte Bonheur in the Victory Ride, Operation Red Dawn in the Bernard Baruch, and I'm So Lucky in the King's Bishop.

Friday, August 15, 2008

Fantastic Horse Names

Every owner has his or her own method of naming a racehorse. Some go simple by going derivative of the horses' parents names. (example: Cat Thief's parents were Storm Cat and Train Robbery). Some shoot for a consistent theme, like the late Allen Paulson's penchant for naming horses after navigational beacons for airplanes (Ajina, Cigar). Some are self-aggrandizing and self-promotions, like Fusao Sekiguchi's Fusaichi Pegasus or any number of Dubai horses. And others ate named for specific places, events or things near and dear to the owner's heart, like Barbaro and Big Brown.

Another type of name is the "current event" name. Occasionally this yields a neat name for a horse, and we've seen a pair of those in Saratoga: namely, the Eliot Spitzer-themed Lov Guv and Ninth Client. Fantastic. But the best part isn't that these names exist. The owner of theses steeds isn't IEAH Stables (Big Brown's connections), a bunch of disgruntled Wall Streeters, or some wiseass from Brooklyn, it's...




Marylou Whitney! Yes, the fabled socialite, philanthropist and Dame of Saratoga. We had no idea that she had such hatred for our ex-Gov that she'd blatantly name her colts after his torrid affairs. We applaud this type of naming, and hope that she continues to annoy those that have wronged her.

Wednesday, August 13, 2008

Toward a Unified Theory of Jim Lampley

Over the past few days, we have consumed copious amounts of Olympic sports via a range of telecasts on the NBC family of networks, and as a result have been exposed to near-toxic levels of NBC daytime anchorman Jim Lampley. This in turn raised the question of how exactly Lampley, a man whose on-air persona consists of a ratio of three parts smugness to one part haircut, landed such a coveted anchor slot. An investigation was clearly in order.

Based on what we've seen, each NBC sub-network has a different anchor for each daily broadcast segment, with (figuratively) big guns like Bob Costas being wheeled out only for prime time coverage on the mother network. With that in mind, it seems worthwhile to work through a compare-and-contrast of the anchors, broken down by network, to see what Lampley's peer group looks like.

MSNBC: Melissa Stark

Stark is probably best known as the proto-Erin Andrews, a sports sideline reporter who both looks good on camera and is capable of holding multiple, independent thoughts in her head at any one given time. Neither skill should be undersold--after all, Eric Dickerson failed signally at both.

Stark is now at MSNBC doing general reporting. Her current Olympics work has been typical of her past sports work: solid and professional, if just the slightest bit dull. Still, Stark has gotten her facts and pronounciations largely right, and has consistently under- rather than over-played the emotional content of stories. For example, she was the only NBC anchor who did not call for the destruction or occupation of Lyon following the men's 4X100 meter freestyle relay the other day, a welcome and notably un-Lampleyian take on the story.

Of cou
rse, perhaps as a result of this, Stark has been relegated to America's third-most popular cable news network. Still, on a viewer-annoyance scale of 1 Jim Lampley to 5 Jim Lampleys, Stark receives a winningly low 2 Lampleys.

CNBC: Teddy Atlas & Friends

CNBC's coverage is given over entirely to boxing, apparently on the theory that financial analysis is closely linked to the violent imposition of brain trauma. At any regard, CNBC's single-event focus and total lack of sporting pedigree has led to one of the biggest upsets in broadcast history: the anchorless sports broadcast.

Yep, it's just a play-by-play guy, a sideline reporter, and color man Teddy Atlas out there running the entire show. While this might sound like a good thing, the lack of an anchor quickly points up exactly how much broadcast time a skillful anchor can entertainingly waste between televised events. In the absence of such an anchor, we're left with a series of endless, droning fight "previews" by Atlas, all of which sound something like this:

P-B-P Guy: So, Teddy, tell us about today's upcoming fight between U.S. fighter Cardigan Lopez-Wong and the newcomer from Turkmenistan.

Teddy Atlas:
Well, the key here is for Lopez to punch the Turkmeni fighter in the face a lot. It is crucial that Lopez punch the Turkmeni in the face more than the Turkmeni punches him in the face. However, Lopez's task will be made more difficult by the Turkmeni trying to stop Lopez from punching him in the face, while also trying to punch Lopez in the face. Should be an interesting fight.

[CUT TO beer commercial]

This analysis is riveting after its fashion, but doesn't show much in the way of anchor skills. Give Atlas a 4 on the Lampley scale.

USA: Matt Vasgersian

We're sorry, but to us this guy will forever be the "Armenian Teen Heartthrob", as Vasgersian was christened by Bill Dwyer in those 989 Sports videogame commercials back in the day. Nothing else Vasgersian has done or will ever do will top that nickname. His Olympic performance on USA is mostly bearable, though there is just the slightest soupcon of a Lampley-style smugness lurking underneath. We'll just give him 3 Lampleys and move on to more pressing concerns.

NBC: Jim Lampley

Ah, Lampley. This guy has been around since the beginning of time, feeding off of the scraps left behind by the A-list guys like Costas, Mussburger, et al. He seems to have modeled himself after Muppet announcer Guy Smiley in terms of both appearance and broadcasting style, yet he gets gigs as though it was still 1962 out there. His Olympics coverage has been marked by a jarring combination of Limbaughian jingoistic content (see the above-referenced 4X100 relay story) and the total lack of personal affect common to sufferers of Asperger's Syndrome. This would not seem to recommend him to the second-highest profile Olympic broadcasting slot for NBC.

Plus, in perhaps the ultimate indignity in all this, to the extent that Lampley holds any respect in the broadcasting field it's as a BOXING announcer. Thus, NBC could solve two problems at once simply by demoting Lampley to CNBC, thereby relieving poor Teddy Atlas of the most onerous of his time-filling responsibilities, and tap someone like Keith Olberman as the NBC anchor. This makes so much sense that it's almost painful.

Additionally, it's no
t like Lampley's non-Olympic life makes up for his broadcasting shortcomings. Lampley was one of the original "personalities" on WFAN, the New York City sports-talk radio station whose novel format helped publicize such the emotional disorders of fans nationwide. Also, in a gossip-style note that doesn't merit much space here, last year his fiancee accused him of slamming her head against a wall on New Year's Eve. So, Lampley's artistic performance scores are right down there with his technical merit numbers.

So why, then? Why does Lampley get the NBC gig over other, more qualified anchors? The only answer we come up with is the hair. Lampley's hair is just so magisterial that it overwhelms his manifest other shortcomings in the eyes of the NBC brass. While we yield to no one in our admiration of a solid haircut, we can't help but think that this is a thin reed on which to rest an employment decision.

It's not too late, NBC. Rescue Olberman from the purgatory of MSNBC, let him run amok in Beijing for week 2 of the Olympics, and send Lampley back to the Rotary Club awards dinner circuit. We'll all thank you for it in the end.

Wednesday, August 6, 2008

Transactions Analysis: Liberty Tree Mall Edition

In attempting to find the right Oscar Wilde quote to accurately describe a TA in general and the collection of inspired, useful and horrendous moves that were made over the last fortnight, I narrowed the list down to three:

(1) "Whenever a man does a thoroughly stupid thing, it is always from the noblest motives."
(2) "Ambition is the last refuge of the failure."
(3) "It is always the unreadable that occurs."

Bear these words of wisdom in mind as we enter the realm of Brad Ziegler. (El Angelo)

I have a cast-iron defense for that move, which I will spring upon an unsuspecting world below. (Teddy)

The Fighting Isaiahs
  • Signed Xavier Nady, OF, New York (AL); Released Jose Guillen, OF, Kansas City [7/30]
  • Signed Annibal Sanchez, SP, Florida; Released Randy Wolf, SP, Houston [7/31]
The releasing of Randy Wolf might mark the first time that a player was acquired for the stretch run and was subsequently cut by a fantasy team. The usual modus operandi if for a player to go from a non-contender to a contender, thus enhancing their value. Ed Wade, though, somehow thinks the Astros are in contention, despite, frankly, stinking. It's not that this team made a bad move in cutting Wolf, it's just an amazing turn of events. Another little known fact: Jose Guillen wasn't bitching for weeks about getting out of Kansas City, he really just wanted to be free of Jake's clutches. It's nice that he was such an accommodating owner. (El Angelo)

I admire the attempt to wring some value out of Annibal Sanchez during this lull between his already completed first Tommy John surgery, and his almost inevitable second Tommy John surgery. (Teddy)

Le Dupont Torkies
  • Signed Jeff Samardzja, RP, Chicago (NL); Released Jonathan Sanchez, SP, San Fran [8/1]
  • Signed Randy Winn, OF, San Fran, Bartolo Colon, SP, Boston and Adam Hoffman LaRoche, 1B, Pittsburgh; Released Glenn Perkins, SP, Minnesota and Carlos Gomez, OF, Minnesota [8/5]
Tucker returns from his honeymoon to bask in the glory of a humid DC summer, and pick up a guy who should be catching passes instead of putting an eyechart of the back of his baseball uniform. I actually don't mind the inking of Jeff Samardzja, who's got Joba-lite written all over him, I'm more curious about the DL-stash pickup of Bartolo Colon. What the hell? Was this team under the weight limit? (El Angelo)

I don't mind the Colon pickup--reports out of Pawtucket indicate that he has been eating off of flat ground for two weeks, and will begin eating off a mound within a week. Just as soon as he kills and eats Julio Lugo during his rehab assignment, he can claim the resulting roster slot. (Teddy)

It's Enrico Palazzo
  • Signed Kyle Farnsworth, RP, Detroit; Released Bartolo Colon, SP, Boston [7/30]
  • Signed Aaron Heilman, "RP", New York (NL); Released Greg Smith, SP, Oakland and Jason Kubel, OF, Minnesota [8/7]
There's certainly nothing wrong with trying to chase the Mets' saves after Billy Wagner went on the DL, but a simple email to any Met fan would tell you that Aaron Heilman was the dead-wrong person to turn to. He's given up nine homers as a reliever this year, pretty much all of which were in absolutely piss-poor situations, and struggled mightily against a hapless Padres lineup yesterday. Heilman doesn't need to be the closer or on the defending champs' roster, he needs to be brought behind the outhouse and given the Old Yeller treatment. (El Angelo)

For his sake, and the sake of the hardworking men and women of the FCC, I pray that new Met reliever Eddie Kunz is effective with the big club. Can you imagine the chants at Shea if Kunz fails? Yikes. (Teddy)

54◦40’ or Fight!
  • Signed Andy LaRoche, 3B, Pittsburgh, Justin Speier, RP, Anaheim and Scot Shields, RP, Anaheim; Released Chad Gaudin, RP, Philly, Micah Owings, SP, Arizona and Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, Washington [7/31]
  • Signed Adam Lind, OF, Toronto; Released Michael Bourn, OF, Houston [8/1]
  • Re-signed Zimmerman; Released Jeff Francouer, OF, Atlanta [8/4]
  • Traded Adam Jones, OF, Baltimore to Frank the Tank for Pedro Martinez, SP, New York (NL) [8/5]
  • Traded Howie Kendrick, 2B, Anaheim and their 8th round selection in the 2009 draft to Christmas Critters for Pat Neshek, RP, Minnesota and their 6th round selection in the 2009 draft [8/6]
I'll freely admit that mosst of this is playing in the margins, but with little in the way of dealable chips for next year, I made the most of what I had in getting rid of Howie Kendrick to move up 12-15 slots in next year's draft, which is a total freebie for me, as I wasn't keeping him next year. Ditto for Pedro, who's unlikely to be kept, but then again, so was Jones. Everything else is just lottery tickets--the Anaheim pitchers in case K-Rod walks and they replace him in house, LaRoche and Lind in case they go apeshit the rest of the year, and Zimmerman's contract having rest to zero by clearing waivers. If I get 1 keeper out of this, I'm thrilled, though I'm not counting on it. (El Angelo)

Everyone I've read is still high on Andy LaRoche, so assuming that's not a promotion fmor your callup list, I like the signing. As for the Kendrick deal, while I don't mind it, this year's draft is going to have to be significantly deeper than last year's for the pick upgrade to matter. (Teddy)

Christmas Critters
  • Released Ryan Franklin, RP, St. Louis [8/2]
  • Signed Eddie Guardado, RP, Texas; Release Jerry Hairston, Jack of All Trades, Cincy [8/5]
  • Traded Edinson Volquez, SP, Cincy and their 2nd round selection in the 2009 draft to Frank the Tank for Danny Haren, SP, Arizona and their 5th round selection in the 2009 draft [8/6]
  • Traded Pat Neshek, RP, Minnesota, and their 6th round selection in the 2009 draft to 54'50 or Fight! for Howie Kendrick, 2B, Anaheim and their 8th round selection in the 2009 draft [8/6]
A pair of deals net the Mistletoe Maggots an ace starter and a young second baseman for a declining starter and a couple of picks. Can you argue with this? Well, no, not really. Flags do fly forever, and they've essentially thrown down the gauntlet for LDT and IEP to come and get them. Also, Scot has continued his perpetually annoying trend of picking up a newly minted closer 30 seconds after getting the job with getting Everyday Eddie Guardado. My criticism of Aaron Heilman is only reinforced by the fact that he declined to pick up his dessicated remains. (El Angelo)

Concur. Boring but true. (Teddy)

Decatur Commies
  • Signed Brad Ziegler, RP, Oakland; Released Andruw Jones, OF, Atlanta [8/1]
My talented co-author's first transaction in six weeks, and it involves picking up a movie theatre. How did it feel to dump Andruw, Teddy? (El Angelo)

Auwsome.

And now for the promised defense of Brad Ziegler, whom I signed for two reasons. First, Ziegler has thrown 34 consecutive scoreless innings since being called up by Oakland. Second, and more importantly, I greatly admired Ziegler's work on 90210, and wanted to honor him accordingly. (Teddy)

Frank the Tank
  • Traded Danny Haren, SP, Arizona and their 5th round pick in the 2009 draft to Christmas Critters for Edinson Volquez, SP, Cincy and their 2nd round pick in the 2009 draft [8/5]
  • Signed Willie Bloomquist, 2B, Seattle; Released Mark Ellis, 2B, Oakland [8/6]
  • Traded Pedro Martinez, SP, New York (NL) to 54'50 or Fight! for Adam Jones, OF, Seattle [8/6]
The stupidity with Wee Willie Bloomquist aside (I mean really, why corner the market of crappy second basemen?), the Haren deal is an absolute win for the Streakers. Haren is about to enter his +2 year, and for him, they not only get an interesting-if-overrated flyer in Volquez, they also move up about 40 spots in the draft into the useful second round, plus the additional two keeper spots that Haren would have taken up. This isn't to say that Haren is a bum--he's not, but for a team that's out of it for this year, you have to consider Volquez + 1-2 keepers + a 2nd round pick greater than Haren's value in 2009. Nice job. (El Angelo)

Not so fast, my friend. The valuation on this deal depends on where you see Volquez's floor after the bubble bursts, and what the team does with the additional keeper slots. being after the bubble bursts. If Volquez drops back into the pack of mid-range fantasy starters that tend to go around rounds 4-8 in our league, you're trading Haren for a 3-round draft upgrade, and some additional roster flexibility that only matters if there are enough other keepers on the roster for it to matter. If the two additional keeper slots are used on studs, great. If they get used on downballot keeper types, maybe the value there isn't that great.

Looking at the Tank's roster (admittedly, without the benefit of a contract chart in front of me), I'm not certain that there was really a keeper logjam that needed to be broken. But part of my skepticism here is based on my worry that Volquez will have a hard time keeping up his value in that terrible park in Cincy. But of course, I've been wrong before (see Jones, Andruw above)

Matsui's Fissure
  • Signed Raul Ibanez, OF, Seattle; Released Aaron Rowand, OF, San Fran [7/28]
  • Signed Paul Maholm, SP, Pittsburgh; Released Randy Winn, OF, San Fran [7/31]
I'll let old Oscar cap off my comments by his apt description of thinking that Raul Ibanez will contribute anything to a fantasy team: "Man can believe the impossible, but man can never believe the improbable." (El Angelo)

The idea that Aaron Rowand and Randy Winn were both on a single fantasy roster fills me with dread and sorrow. I'm not emotionally equipped to handle that combination, and so will sign off here. (Teddy)

Monday, August 4, 2008

What Now, Big Brown?

Yesterday, Derby/Preakness winner Big Brown returned to the races for the first time since his Belmont debacle in New Jersey's signature race, the Haskell Invitational. Bet down to 1-5 odds, if you polled the crowd as to what would have happened during the race, you would have probably gotten two responses:

(1) Big Brown romps over a hideous field and wins by daylight.

(2) Big Brown is still injured, jinxed or feeling the effects of being off steroids and will run up the track.

Conventional wisdom, once again, was dead wrong. Big Brown was forwardly placed early, running second to the 20-1 longshot and horribly named Coal Play, trained by Nick Zito of Da'Tara fame. After 7 furlongs, Coal Play wasn't coming back to the back, he was opening up on Big Brown! Big Brown, after a fair amount of urging and whipping by jockey Kent Desormeaux, finally found the next gear in the final furlong, and eventually dug past Coal Play to win by a length and a half. (For a replay, see the Form's link here.)

The immediate reaction by myself and many others was to be unimpressed. This horse had toyed with rivals in the Derby and Preakness, and now he had trouble beating Coal Play, who had never won a stakes race? It looked like this may be his last race. However, a day later and with the benefit of knowing that he ran a 106 Gowanus Speed Figure (not great, not awful), perhaps we haven't seen the last of Big Brown after all. The question is, what next?

To figure out what comes next, it's worth asking what is to be gained by continuing to run Big Brown. It's unlikely he's going to be crowned an immortal at this point, barring him breaking track records for the rest of his (brief) career. At the same time, he's already wrapped up the Eclipse award for 3-year old colt of the year. The only prize left to shoot for is Horse of the Year, a race in which he's probably behind Curlin, and possibly behind undefeated filly Zenyatta. Okay. So how does he get to Horse of the Year?

For starters, the connections must forget about running in the Travers or any other race against 3 year olds only. There's absolutely no upside to those races, as he'll either simply re-beat the same 3yos he's dominated most of the year, or worse, lose to some longshot, leading not only losing the HOTY race but also stud value. If IEAH and Dutrow are thinking in terms of awards, they'll pass on the Travers, Pennsylvania Derby, Super Derby, etc., and focus on beating older horses.

They also should forget about returning Big Brown to the turf. I mean, what would it prove if he beat a 3yo turf horse like Tizdejavu or a turf colt like Einstein? Who cares?

No, the truth is he has to go after the two big handicap horses that are out there: defending HOTY Curlin and speedy gelding Commentator, who just won the Whitney. The latter is being pointed to September's MassCap, and Curlin's plans should be announced soon. Big Brown should point for either the MassCap or whatever Curlin runs in. That's more important than the Travers. Hell, that's more important than the Breeders Cup, which neither Curlin nor Commentator are pointing towards because of a synthetic surface. Beating Tiago and Well Armed in that race will prove nothing.

If you want to be the best, you need to beat the best. Here's to hoping that we get a race with Big Brown, Commentator and Curlin together, which would be as fun as anything we've seen recently.

Saturday, August 2, 2008

Tom Durkin's July

Tom Durkin, NYRA's veteran racetrack announcer, is one of the best in the business, with his professionalism only matched by California stalwart Trevor Denman and New Jersey/Florida sensation Larry Collmus. While Durkin gets credit and accolades for having called the Breeders Cup for 20+ years and for being the voice of the Derby from 2001 on, few could argue that he had a better month than July 2008. Consider his call of an ordinary maiden race on the Fourth of July:



Not to keep his merriness limited to Belmont, he's also brought it to Saratoga for maiden winner Arrrrr.



Has he hit the proverbial "I'm Keith Hernandez" stage of his storied career, or has he started drinking on the job? I'm inclined to think he's probably just having fun.