Transactions Analysis: Heat of Summer Edition

To begin, let me clear my throat: A-hem. Man, between that and Ang's performance over the past 2 years in the Triple Crown, we here at the GRBG appear to have been gifted with a second sight. Well, except for predictions regarding the league. Still, we're not the types to let mere facts get in the way of sharing our opinions in a TA. (Teddy)

Let's dispense with the chit-chattiness and get right to exactly how everyone in the Northeast should feel after this weird weather month:

Much better. (El Angelo)

Presidential Timber

• Signed Kevin Millar, 1B, Baltimore [6/14]
• Traded Tim Hudson, SP, Atlanta, Brad Lidge, RP, Houston and Aaron Rowand, OF, San Fran to Matsui's Fissure for Brandon Phillips, 2B, Cincy, Carl Crawford, OF, Tampa Bay and Alfonso Soriano, OF, Chicago (NL) [6/15]

We kick off this fortnight's edition with a pair of curious transactions from the Clinton Crotches, the first being the addition of Kevin Millar, which I can't quite endorse because he sucks. Yeah, I know someone had to man the 3-slot while Big Al Pujols went on his brief DL stay, but they've already got Yoooooouks to handle first base duties, and there are a slew of more interesting and useful 3B options out there that you can turn to versus Millar's stellar .247 batting average.

As for the deal, it's on its face a great swap, but this team probably isn't winning the title this year, and will be hard-pressed to get money this year. I have to think the impetus is picking up another non-plus year of Phillips, and the ability to re-flip Crawford and Soriano down the line, because while they didn't give up a ton, there's no scenario under which either outfielder contributes to this team next year, whereas both Lidge and Hudson could have. (El Angelo)

I feel as though elite players have been consistently undervalued in this league, so I'm on board with the concept of trying to hoard them. That said, I'm not sure whether that trend will continue as we move into the Brave New World of +3 players this offseason. Regardless, in the absence of pretty strong countervailing considerations, Good Players > Bad Players.

How's that for some crackerjack analysis? (Teddy)

Le Dupont Torkies

• Signed Joey Devine, RP, Oakland; Released Chris Ianetta, C, Colorado [6/14]
• Signed Marcus Thames, OF, Detroit [6/15]
• Released Thames [6/19]

Marcus Thames has been the protagonist in a slew of funky baseball moments. He homered in his first major league at bat, off the Big Eunuch. He was traded for Ruben Sierra, which would be something of a compliment had it occurred ten years earlier. He was once sent to the minors so Timo Perez could be called up. And he had a streak where eight consecutive hits were home runs. He doesn't deserve a starting spot on a fantasy team, but he's definitely earned the right to be in the Hall of Trivia. (El Angelo)

Is Chris Ianetta officially a bust yet? I feel like he's been on and off rosters in this league for the past 3 years and has yet to get into a game. He needs to either improve once and for all or accept his destiny and open up a struggling cannoli shop in Boulder. (Teddy)

Decatur Commies

• Signed Dionner Navarro, C, Tampa Bay; Released Rafael Betancourt, RP, Cleveland [6/16]
• Signed Elijah Dead Dawg Dukes, OF, Washington; Released Eric Greg Gagne, RP, Milwaukee [6/25]

These are a couple of fun lottery tickets for a team that's clearly building towards next season. Dave Navarro's poor brother is definitely a tier below the McCann-Martin-Mauer level of catchers, and is somewhat redundant on a roster with Victor Martinez's corpse, but could blossom in the 2nd half and make himself into a 12th keeper for next year. Dukes is nothing but talent and insanity. If he could apply half of his anger into his baseball game, he'd be the next Jim Rice. As it stands, I'm leaning more towards the Kevin Mitchell career arc, which still isn't awful as it yielded an MVP award. A pair of good gambles by my co-author. (El Angelo)

Everybody who bet that, as of July 1, King Felix would have more HRs than VMart, please raise your hands so that I can get contracts put out on you. Christ. (Teddy)

54°40' or Fight!

• Signed Chase Headley, 3B, San Diego; Released Akinori Iwamura, 2B, Tampa Bay [6/16]
• Signed Chad Qualls, RP, Arizona, Taylor Buchholz, SP, Colorado, Mark Buerhle, SP, Chicago (AL) and Dana Eveland, SP, Oakland; Released Edwin Jackson, SP, Tampa Bay, Homer Bailey, SP, Cincy, Xavier Nady, OF, Pittsburgh and Carlos Gonzalez, OF, Oakland [6/20]
  
• Signed Edwin Encarnacion, 3B, Cincy and Jeremy Bonderman, SP, Detroit; Released Ian Stewart, 2B, Colorado [6/24]

The middle rung of transactions is just a combo of me being pissed off at my team and an effort to try to get some players of potential flip value like DJ Qualls and The Other Buchholz, not to mention the cornering of the market on a last name. I'm not exactly counting on Edwin "Tito" Jackson to figure things out finally under Dusty Baker's tutelage or Chase Headley to be the next Evan Longoria or for Jeremy Bonderman to come back all fixed and perfect next year, but hey, that's why they're dubbed flyers. (El Angelo)

At least with Bonderman there might be a reason for his poor performance other than pure sucking, and the price was certainly right. I mean, are you really going to regret the Xavier Nady cutting? Maybe he'll end up putting things together, but suck tends to find its own level over the amount of time he's been in the league. (Teddy)

ceratomyxa shasta

• Signed Vernon Wells, OF, Toronto; Released Scott Downs, RP, Toronto [6/19]
• Released Wells; Signed Andy Sonnenstine, SP, Tampa Bay and Casey Blake, CI, Cleveland; Waived Blake DeWitt, 3B, Atlanta [6/20]
• Released Blake; Signed Russell Branyan, 1B, Milwaukee [6/24]
• Traded Vladimir Guerrero, OF, Anaheim to The Fighting Isaiahs for Jair Jurjjens, SP, Atlanta and Todd Jones, RP, Detroit [6/30]

For the record, I like that it took Vernon Wells exactly 22 hours to piss off Ironhead and warrant waiving. What the hell could have transpired that one night to make that happen? Sure the guy went 0-for-4, but unless Sahil's scouting abilities noticed something new, I'm befuddled. As for the deal, it's a little depressing to see Vlad the Impaler go for a young pitcher and a mysoginist reliever, but it's pretty evident that Vlad's days as a franchise outfielder are in the distant past, and this haul is actually pretty fair for a guy that's a 3-month rental. (El Angelo)

Yeah, Vlad's down to a 3 category player at this point, but still, you'd better like Jajijr Jujrjejns pretty good for this trade to work out as a positive on the talent side. Alas poor Vlad.

Also, this is finally going to get me off my duff to write about the Original First Round at some pint over the next 2 weeks. Whether that counts for or against the trade is left to the reader's discretion. (Teddy)

Frank the Tank

• Signed Luke Scott, OF, Baltimore and Mike Aviles, SS, Kansas City; Released Randy Winn, OF, San Fran and Vernon Wells, OF, Toronto [6/15]
• Signed Jeff Baker, 1B, Colorado; Released Kaz Matsui, Anal Disaster, Colorado [6/23]
• Signed Kevin Slowey, SP, Minnesota and Josh Banks, SP, San Diego; Released Greg Smith, SP, Oakland and Jose Contreras, SP, Chicago (AL) [6/26]

The Commish continues to try to claw into contention by riding the hot players and jumping off those that cool down as quickly as possible. Greg Smith, had a couple of so-so starts? Don't let the door hit you on the way out! Mr. Banks, come on in! This is nowhere clearer than the inking of Mike Aviles, who's riding a hot streak at the plate to a .350 OBP that is 90% average driven. Given that Kevin Goldstein has no idea who the hell he is, look for this team to be in the market for a new shortstop come Bastille Day. (El Angelo)

Now, c'mon, Ang, be reasonable. It's not as though there's a history of BA-driven KC rookie shortstops coming to grief. (Teddy)

Matsui's Fissure

• Traded Carl Crawford, OF, Tampa Bay, Brandon Phillips, 2B, Cincy and Alfonso Soriano, OF, Chicago (NL) to Presidential Timber for Tim Hudson, SP, Atlanta, Aaron Rowand, OF, San Fran and Brad Lidge, RP, Philly [6/15]
  
• Signed Brandon Jones, OF, Atlanta, Ricky Nolasco, SP, Florida and Kyle Lohse, SP, St. Louis [6/18]

The chips of Crawford and Soriano have been cashed in, and while the haul isn't impressive, it's important to remember that Soriano's on the DL for a while and Crawford has been fairly unimpressive this year, so getting much back for them wasn't to be expected. At some level, the deal boils down to Phillips for Lidge and Hudson, which is probably a bit more favored towards the team that gets the speedy middle infielder, but Lidge appears to have forgotten the ghosts of Albert Pujols and reverted to being a stud closer, making the deal acceptable. What I'm most impressed about is that this team managed to claim THREE guys in one day that weren't on the disabled list without dropping another player, thanks to Bad Penny and Rafael Soriano breaking at the exact same time. This team's having as much injury luck as the Mets, and sadly, about as much success in what looked to be a solid season back in March. (El Angelo)

It is an extremely bad omen to have Ricky Nolasco on your fantasy roster. I wouldn't be surprised if Ricky spends his off-days perched upon a bust of Pallas just above the clubhouse door. (Teddy)

Wu Tang Financial

• Signed Matt Thornton, RP, Chicago (AL); Released Aquilino Lopez, RP, Toronto [6/20]

Thornton appears to be well on his way to the Jesse Crain Award for most garbage wins and saves by a mediocre middle reliever. There's always one or two of these guys every year who manages to get 8-10 wins without having a good role or dominant stuff, so if you can luck into him, more power to you. It certainly beats having Aquilino Lopez taking up room on your roster, because he's in the minors. (El Angelo)

How the hell could we have failed to track and name the Jesse Crain trophy prior to now? That should have been right in our collective wheelhouses. I'm going to go pick up Mike Timlin as pennance. (Teddy)

The Fighting Isaiahs

• Signed Aubrey Huff, 1B, Baltimore; Released Raul Ibanez, OF, Seattle [6/19]
• Signed David DeJesus, OF, Kansas City; Released Eric Chavez, 3B, Oakland [6/26]
  
• Traded Jair Jurrjens, SP, Atlanta and Todd Jones, RP, Detroit to ceratomyxa shasta for Vladimir Guerrero, OF, Anaheim [6/30]

We have to come up with another award for guys like Aubrey Huff, who I think Jake has had for 6 straight seasons without ever drafting him. I had a similar obssession with Paul Quantrill back in the day. Is that admitting too much? (El Angelo)

Not at all--peep that smoldering gaze on Quantrill at right. That would make any red-blooded male turn queerer than Richard Simmons's masseur. (Teddy)

It's Enrico Palazzo

• Signed Jason Kubel, OF, Minnesota; Released Ryan Rowland-Smith, RP, Seattle [6/18]
• Signed Mike Jacobs, 1B, Florida [6/19]
• Signed Jo-Jo Reyes, SP, Atlanta; Released Jeff Kent, 2B, Los Angeles [6/22]
• Released Reyes [6/24]

This is all window dressing on what's been the most significant development of the last 4 weeks in the league: after a slow start, the Defending Champs are back near the top of the league. Everyone else is chasing them and their well-constructed roster, once again. Gulp. (El Angelo)

I'm just happy to see that IEP observed Newton's Second Law of Punctuation Conservation by replacing one hyphenated fringe player with another. The world will continue spinning another week. (Teddy)

Drafting a Player "Too Early"

With the NBA Draft coming up this week, it's time to address a pet peeve of your humble author: commentators, pundits and talking heads that kill teams for picking a player "too early" in a draft. Without fail, you hear this every year in the NBA or NFL draft, that a certain player is a "reach" at a certain pick. Let's ignore the fact that you can't properly judge who should have been drafted when in a draft until years afterwards. The theory on reaches is still a load of crap.

A prototypical example of a guy who's being dubbed as a potential "too early" pick is Kevin Love of UCLA. The newest group of rumors has him going to Minnesota at the #3 pick, when in a lot of earlier mock drafts and projections had him somewhere around the 10-slot. Naturally, this has lead multiple people to speculate that Minnesota is crazy for drafting a guy this early, that taking him at #3 is a reach, and that they should do something else. What's the rationale for this?

1. The player they want to take isn't that good. Latent in all those who are against taking Love at the 3 slot (or whenever you say a guy is being picked too early) is the idea that there are better players available in the draft, such as O.J. Mayo, Eric Gordon, heck, even stiff white guy du jour, Brook Lopez . You know what? Those who say this may be right. They may also be dead wrong. While I'm not going to presume that Kevin McHale is a genius, given that he traded away Kevin Garnett for Al Jefferson and two boxes of donuts, there's a damn good chance that he's looked at all the players available and said "You know what? I don't want someone like Mayo on my team; Russell Westbrook's a project, Brook Lopez is a stiff, Eric Gordon is the next Jamal Crawford and I'm not taking an international player. Love reminds me of Carlos Boozer. I want him." And that would not be a ridiculous opinion, frankly. I'm not endorsing taking a guy who would have trouble making an NBA roster at #3. I am saying that if you rationally think a player may be the third best player in the draft, there's nothing wrong with taking him at the third spot, projections be damned.
2. They could trade down and take him later. Easier said than done. Here's what you have to do: (a) find a trading partner; (b) make sure you don't trade down too far only to have a team in front of you take the player you want; (c) make it all work under the salary cap; (d) make it all work within your overall mission for your team. For example, people would be all over the idea of Minnesota swapping picks with the Clippers, taking Love at #7, and getting something else for their troubles, while the Clippers get Mayo. Win-win, right? Maybe. Also a lot harder to do in real life than it is on Bill Simmons' laptop.

3. It's a waste of money to take a guy early. This has a scintilla of truth in the NFL, where rookie contracts have become obstacles to building a franchise. But NBA rookie contracts are all scaled and are under $5 million a year. The mid-level exception takes up as much room as a top draft pick. You're telling me the T-Wolves should try to save about a million bucks to trade down 3 spots? I don't buy that at all.

The bottom line is that if you think a guy is the best player in the draft and/or the best fit for your team, take him when it's your turn to pick, unless someone's pounding down the door with a great offer. Within reason, of course. For example, if the T-Wolves honestly think that Roy Hibbert is the 3rd best player in the draft, they shouldn't take him #3; they should move a future pick to a team picking in the middle or late first round in exchange for his rights. But saying that a team "can't" take a guy at #3 because Chad Ford thinks he belongs at #8 is ridiculous. Do your scouting, do your evaluation, and fit your team's needs as you see fit.

Periodic Accountability Check

We here at the GRBG are not shy about sharing our prognostications regarding sporting events both major and minor. That said, fairness dictates that we at least occasionally check back on our calls to see just how badly we missed in our picks.

Late last year, we took a stab at predicting the group stages of the Euro '08 tournament. Today the group stage concluded, giving us a valuable opportunity for self-reflection. Our picks for advancement to the quarterfinals are analyzed by group below, with a brief rundown on what went right, what went wrong, and what will happen next.

Group A

GRBG picked: Czech Republic, Turkey
Actual results: Portugal, Turkey

The Good:

Might as well get our major blunder out of the way. In the time since our Euro preview, Cristiano Ronaldo has cranked his game up to the level where he is a legitimate threat to nearly single-handedly win any game in which he participates, and that is something we just did not see coming. His brilliance has opened space for and deflected unwanted attention away from Portugal's talented but flaky supporting cast. Portugal are one of the three teams that have emerged from the group stages as co-teams to beat, and their QF match against Germany has a chance to be the match of the tournament.

The Bad:

Through 2 2/3 of their 3 group games, our projected Group A winner (and tournament runner-up) the Czech Republic was cruising towards a QF berth. Then they somehow managed to concede 3 goals to Turkey in a span of 20 minutes, prompting El Angelo to ask me whether the Czechs had pulled the goalie (note--this is not a positive question to have to ask of a soccer team). Given the mediocre opposition, it was an all-time gag job. The only consolation is that nobody, but NOBODY, could have seen it coming.

The Future:

Portugal come up just short against a more physical Germany squad; Turkey can't replicate its great escape and bow to Croatia.

Group B

GRBG picked: Germany, Croatia
Actual results: Croatia, Germany

The Good:

We got 'em right.

The Bad:

You'd have to have been an idiot not to get 'em right, even if the top teams in the group were a little wobbly. Germany made its progress significantly more interesting than you might have thought, putting up a surprising loss and underwhelming win in its last two matches. And although Croatia played well, they lost two starters to knee injuries. But fundamentally, the other two teams in the group (Poland and Austria) had no answers for the big two.

The Future:

See above; a positive draw for the Croats and a good matchup for the Germans ensure that both Group B teams advance to the semis despite their issues.

Group C

GRBG picked: Italy, Holland
Actual results: Holland, Italy

The Good:

Again, we got 'em right at the end of the day.

The Bad:

We in no way saw the specific games unfolding as they did. Holland scored nine goals through six different players score in the group stages, which is insane--by way of comparison, the four teams in Group B scored 10 goals combined during the group stage. They've looked the best team by a shockingly wide margin, and stood very much in opposition to our group pick, Italy. The Azzuri needed considerable help to slip through to the QF, where they will now face another quick, offensive-minded team in Spain.

The Future:

Holland keep right on rolling over Gus Hiddink and Russia, both of whom traditionally run out of gas at this stage of tournaments; Italy can't score enough to stay with Spain.

Group D

GRBG picked: Spain, Greece
Actual results: Spain, Russia

The Good:

Our faith in Spain has been amply rewarded to date, as the Spanish join the Portuguese and Dutch as the classes of the group round.

The Bad:

Defending champion Greece's strategy of doing just enough to win tipped over into an apparent decision to do more than enough to lose. We also underestimated Gus Hiddink, who has a borderline-Milutinovician knack for guiding his teams through group stages. Regardless, it looks as though whoever came out of this group in second would have been destined to end up as grist for the Dutch mill.

The Future:

Spain keep on chugging towards the championship we predicted for them; Russia lose but go home feeling good about themselves.

Roster Combinations

We'll get to a dissertation on the status of the contenders in the coming week or so, but for today, let's take a look at the bottom of the league. Messrs. Angelo, Sahil and Will are toiling badly at the bottom (Teddy's not doing so hot either, but we won't pick on him), to the extent where they're so far behind it's tough to see how any of them could get above 9th place without multiple teams quitting. Which lead to the question: how good or bad would a team be that combined the best of their 3 rosters?

For this, we took the players that appeared to have the most useful stats at position. We included Bobby Jenks, Brandon Phillips, Carl Crawford and Alfonso Soriano, as they may have just been dealt, it's fair to assume for this folly that they would have been kept by the uber-team. Here's the roster of the three teams combined:

C: Mike Napoli
1B: Adrian Gonzalez
2B: Brandon Phillips
SS: Jhonny Peralta
3B: Garrett Atkins
OF/DH: Corey Hart, Carl Crawford, Alfonso Soriano, Kosuke Fukudome
SP: Felix Hernandez, Jon Lester, Tim Wakefield, John Maine, Andy Pettite, Todd Wellemeyer
RP: Jon Rauch, Bobby Jenks, Joe Nathan

Now that's a roster that inspires fear in absolutely nobody. If we combined the stats compiled by those guys to date, we'd get the following totals, which I've accompanied by where they would place in a 10-team league (eliminating the 3 bottom dwellers, obviously):

Runs: 310 (8th)
Homers: 92 (T-3rd)
RBI: 306 (8th)
Steals: 59 (T-3rd)
OBP: .335 (10th)

Wins: 36 (8th)
Saves: 45 (5th)
Strikeouts: 456 (9th)
ERA: 3.52 (2nd)
WHIP: 1.28 (6th)

That's not good. In fact, here's what the league as a whole would look like:

Christmas Critters		72
Wu Tang Financial		66.5
LeDupont Torkies		65.5
It's Enrico Palazzo		63.5
The Fighting Isaiahs		61.5
The Spam Avengers		50.5
Presidential Timber		48
Polk's Shasta Fissure		46
Frank the Tank		44.5
Decatur Commies		32

That's some fantastic roster construction by the three of us in the basement. The increase in keeper status can't happen soon enough.

Transactions Analysis: The Pewter Pitcher Leaderboard

We're a bit more than a third of the way through the season, which means that the contenders and pretenders have emerged, and it looks like a fairly competitive year; I count no fewer than 6 teams that can say they have a shot to win it. But rather than wax poetic about the teams that have a chance to win, as we haven't reached Father's Day, for crying out loud, let's take a look at the potential candidates for the vaunted Pewter Parachute Award. In previous years, it's been a runaway with middle relievers like Guillermo Mota and Pat Neshek getting run through systematically. This year, we're seeing not just middle relievers in contention, we're seeing some real names in the running. And not coincidentally, they're all in this TA. So I'll have an eye towards the race for the prize while scrutinizing a lot of deals. (El Angelo)

It's June, so the Parachute is officially in play. Not in play: my entire team, which stinks and sucks and stinks. But I digress. (Teddy)

Frank the Tank

• Signed Jason Giambi, HGHer, New York (AL); Released Josh Willingham, OF, Florida [5/28]
• Signed Luis Castillo, 2B, New York (NL); Released Jayson Werth, OF, Philly [6/1]
• Claimed Carlos Gonzalez, OF, Oakland off waivers; Released Ryan Doumit, C, Pittsburgh [6/3]
• Released Dana Eveland, SP, Oakland [6/4]
• Signed Alex Hinsaw, RP, San Fran; Released Castillo [6/6]
• Traded Chris Young, OF, Arizona and Gonzalez to 54°40' or Fight! for Bobby Jenks, RP, Chicago (AL); Signed Randy Winn, OF, San Fran [6/7]
• Released Daniel Cabrera, SP, Baltimore [6/8]
• Released Hinshaw; Re-signed Doutmit [6/10]

Guys you pick up and drop yourself without a middle step don't count towards the Pewter Pitcher, so Ryan Doumit, take a seat. Instead, we've got a pair of real players here who are making a run at the trophy. First, Mr. HgHiambi has been gracing the waiver wire with shocking frequency this year, though his recent hot streak is not only good news for the Streakers, it's pretty much ensured that he's going nowhere. More surprising is that Bobby Jenks, a very sensible pickup for this team at minimal cost for this year, has been dealt twice in the span of 10 days. I suppose that should get its own award; maybe in honor of Assface Omar Minaya? Speaking of which, why the hell was Luis Castillo on this roster for a week? Did you lose a bet to someone? (El Angelo)

Sort of a stealth candidate here as well is Randy Winn, who I believe we've cited before as the walking embodiment of a fantasy replacement-level outfielder. I guess that Bud Selig hasn't gotten around to throwing the Giants out of the league yet, so there's still a little fantasy grist to be milled yet in S.F. (Teddy)

54°40' or Fight!

• Signed Ian Stewart, 2B/3B Colorado; Released Rich Hill, SP, Chicago (NL) [5/29]
• Signed Jason Bartlett, SS, Tampa Bay; Released Guillermo Mota, RP, Milwaukee [5/30]
• Added Clayton Kershaw, SP, Los Angeles to the active roster; Released Josh Fields, 3B, Chicago (AL) [6/1]
• Traded Alex Gordon, 3B, Kansas City, Miguel Tejada, SS, Houston and Gavin Floyd, SP, Chicago (AL) to clemens the pederast for Matt Cain, SP, San Fran; Bobby Jenks, RP, Chicago (AL) and Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, Washington [6/2]
• Traded Jenks to Frank the Tank for Chris Young, OF, Arizona and Carlos Gonzalez, OF, Oakland [6/7]
• Traded Joba Chamberlain, SP, New York (AL) to Le Dupont Torkies for Clay Buchholz, SP, Boston and James Loney, 1B, Los Angeles; Released Aaron Laffey, SP, Cleveland [6/12]

The long and short of the three deals from my perspective is: (a) cashing in on three guys that I wasn't keeping this year and were somewhat surplusage for Chris Young (with Jenks as the intermediary that I didn't want) and three fun flyers in Cain, Zimmerman & Gonzalez; (b) swapping Stud Yankee for Stud Red Sock while getting Loney for my troubles. Since I'm not competing this year anyway, the difference between Joba & Clay was fungible, and adding a useful 1B in the process can't hurt, right? (El Angelo)

Shit, query whether Clay Buchholz won't end up more valuable than Joba THIS year, as Joba's conversion from minor league SP to big league RP to big league SP has set back his development curve a little. The real question is who will be more valuable going forward, which as with all young pitchers depends a lot on whose arm explodes first. Like the trade.

So now that I've said something nice I guess I have to take a pot shot. To wit: guess spending a second rounder on Alex Gordon last year didn't really pan out all that niftily. (Teddy)

Le Dupont Torkies

• Signed Glen Perkins, SP, Minnesota; Released Scot Shields, RP, Anaheim [6/2]
• Signed Rahdames Liz, RP, Baltimore; Released Heath Bell, RP, San Diego [6/5]
• Released Perkins [6/9]
• Signed Armando Not Andres Gallaraga, SP, Detroit [6/10]
• Signed Jorge Cantu, CI, Florida; Released Liz [6/11]
  
• Traded Clay Buchholz, SP, Boston and James Loney, 1B, Los Angeles to 54°40' or Fight! for Joba Chamberlain, SP, New York (AL) [6/12]

Aside from the trade, everything else is just weekly re-arranging of deck chairs for the next cruise, because the only guy still on the roster is Jorge Cantu, who's replacement level at the hot corner. The 2006 Champs obviously needed another arm, and cashed out on Bucchholz for Joba...but as the guy who made the deal, I have to query whether they could have gotten some better certainty from another non-competitor for Bucchholz. Yes, Joba's also going to be kept beyond this year, but in this team's keeper situation, you have to believe they're going for it this year, so unless the goal is to re-flip Joba for a better starter, this strikes me as only marginally helpful, especially as it leaves them with a hole at first base. (El Angelo)

I'm pretty sure I nailed Liz Radhames at a mixer in 1997. If memory serves, she was a nursing student from St. Joe's who enjoyed hiking, swing music, and (most crucially) Flaming Dr. Peppers. I admit to being more than a little surprised to see her in the O's bullpen this year, though good on her for striking a blow for gender equality. (Teddy)

The Spam Avengers

• Signed Jack Cust, OF, Oakland; Released Junior Griffey, OF, Cincinnati [5/28]

Would it have killed Alex to keep Junior Griffey around until he hit his 600th? The lack of sentimentality from this owner is appalling, especially when it's to sign the King of Three True Outcomes, Jack Fricking Cust. (El Angelo)

Jack Cust has chunks of Junior Griffey's stool in his stool. I leave to the reader to determine whether that makes Cust better or worse than Junior. (Teddy)

Decatur Commies

• Signed Derek Lowe Face, SP, Los Angeles [5/24]
• Signed Luke Hochevar, SP, Kansas City [5/25]

In terms of reunions, Lowe returning to Teddy's arms ranks somewhere between Tom Glavine's return to the Braves and me skipping my 10th high school reunion. On another note, Hochevar blows and blows on a bad team. (El Angelo)

DLowe has had terrible results this year, but his peripherals are the same as they have been for the past few years. He's a good bet to improve, and with my rotation in its current state, I'll take what I can get. (Teddy)

It's Enrico Palazzo

• Signed Bartolo Colon, SP, Boston and Scott Linebrink, RP, Chicago (AL); Released Mike Pelfrey, SP, New York (NL) [5/26]
• Released Jake Westbrook, SP, Cleveland [6/3]
• Signed Brandon Morrow, RP, Seattle; Released John Smoltz, SP, Atlanta [6/7]
• Signed Heath Bell, RP, San Diego [6/8]

My first draft of comments applauded Darrin for getting rid of Mike Pelfrey, who'd been crappy beyond recognition to that point. However, since being waived by the Defending Champs, Pelfrey's pitched 21 innings while giving up 4 runs, K'ing 15 and keeping his walk rate in order. (Of course he hasn't won any of those three starts---it's tough when your team's lineup and bullpen suck as much as their manager.) So I'm going to applaud Darrin instead for giving the Mets another viable starter by cutting Pelfrey. I would ask someone to keep up the good work by picking up Carlos Delgado for a week and then cutting him, as it may wake him up from his coma. Maybe I should've labeled this TA Bitter Met Fan Edition instead. (El Angelo)

Angelo advocates this same strategy with regard to Billy Wagner, except that Ang would prefer the subsequent cutting to be physical and repeated. (Teddy)

The Fighting Isaiahs

• Signed Randy Wolf, SP, San Diego; Released Edgar Rentasuck, SS, Detroit [5/26]
• Signed Jose Guillen, OF, Kansas City; Released Jeff Keppinger, 1B, Cincy [6/9]

Edgar Rentasuck is candidate #3 for the PP, as everyone who's needed a temporary fix at SS has tried him and been similarly disappointed. Still, you gotta love him because of his spunkiness. I'm more impressed though with the Jose Guillen signing, not because he's any good (he's not), but because Jake ignored his obscenity laced tirade and picked up him to ride the hot streak. I'm only shocked that he didn't try to pick up the White Sox' blow up dolls last month. (El Angelo)

Hey, somebody on that Royals team has to knock in the runs they score, and it's sure as hell not going to be Tony Pena Jr. Also, I'm pretty sure Jeff Keppinger did my taxes last year, which is a good a reason as any to waive him. (Teddy)

Matsui's Fissure

• Signed Jorge Campillo, RP, Atlanta; Released Jeff Francis, SP, Colorado and Donnie Darko, 1B, Cleveland [5/31]
• Signed Orlando Hudson, 2B, Arizona; Released Manny Acosta, RP, Atlanta [6/2]
• Re-signed Darko; Released Dionner Navarro, C, Tampa Bay and Mike Jacobs, 1B, Florida [6/9]

The Exploding Rectums continue to play Atlanta Reliever Roulette, which has landed on something called Jorge Campillo. That's going to work out poorly. This list of players is pretty depressing in general, as Garko, Navarro and Jacobs all fall under the category of guys that sounded like a great idea at the time but haven't done squat this year. Jorge Campillo is definitely going to turn that streak around though, you watch. Count on it. (El Angelo)

Orlando Hudson has an OPS of .858 so far this year, which is tops among non-Utlerian 2Bs. For some reason, none of us could bring ourselves to snag the O-Dog until now; not sure what that was about, but for the league's rep it's nice to see him brought into the fold. (Teddy)

clemens the pederast

• Signed Tim Redding, SP, Washington [5/27]
• Signed Jerry Hairston, Jr., MI, Cincinnati [5/30]
• Traded Matt Cain, SP, San Fran, Bobby Jenks, RP, Chicago (AL) and Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, Washington to 54°40' or Fight! for Alex Gordon, 3B, Kansas City, Miguel Tejada, SS, Houston and Gavin Floyd, SP, Chicago (AL) [6/2]
• Signed John Grabow, RP, Pittsburgh; Released Hairston [6/2]
• Signed Scott Downs, RP, Toronto; Released Jeremy Bonderman, SP, Detroit [6/7]
• Signed JD Drew, OF, Boston; Released Scott Rolen, 3B, Toronto [6/8]

Ironhead's team encompasses the most PP candidates, as Redding, Hairston, Downs and Drew have all been passed around like Mike Wilbon's underwear at an NBA party. Also, not to pile it on the poor bastard, but you know your season's going poorly when Bonderman gets a freak injury that KO's him for an entire year, and it's about the 5th worst thing that's happened to your staff. At least Floyd gives them a chance to reload for next season. (El Angelo)

Last year this franchise justifiably re-named itself in order to reflect its aggravation with Jeremy Bonderman, when all Bonderman did was suck. But what's the next step? How do you reflect Bonderman's ascension to an even higher level of franchise sabotage? We here at the GRBG wait with baited breath. A suggestion: mailing Bonderman a signed waiver letter rapped around a dead fish. (Teddy)

Christmas Critters

• Signed Dan Wheeler, RP, Tampa Bay; Released Scott Downs, RP, Toronto [5/28]
• Signed Jerry Hairston, Jr., MI, Chicago (NL) and Chad Cordero, RP, Washington; Released Felipe Lopez, SG, St. John's [6/5]
• Released Hairston; Signed Alexi Ramirez, 2B, Chicago (AL) [6/9]

I am now convinced that Scot has a program in his computer that emails him the minute a closer is down, because nobody is quicker to get the replacement fireman than him. I mean, he had Dan Wheeler before Troy Percival was off the mound in Tampa for god's sake. Well done. Also, Dan Wheeler? Ex-Met, traded for Richard Hidalgo. Grrr. (El Angelo)

Richard is the third-most famous Hidalgo, behind Movie Starring Viggo Mortensen Hidalgo and Treaty of Guadelupe Hidalgo. (Teddy)

Wu Tang Financial

• Signed Ronny Cedeno, SS, Chicago (NL); Released Clint Barmes, SS, Colorado [5/24]
• Released Cedeno, Signed Edgar Rentasuck, SS, Detroit [6/4]
• Signed Joe Crede, 3B, Chicago (AL); Released Edwin Encarnacion, 3B, Cincy [6/7]
  

See? Told you. Everyone loves the Rentasuck. Social on the Rentasuck. (El Angelo)


We here at the GRBG are strongly pro-social-rentasucking. For whatever that's worth. (Teddy)

Welcome Back, Milton

After a quiet season to date, Milton Bradley broke out big-time last night. As reported by the Kansas City Star:

Excitement broke out after the game when Texas’ fiery outfielder Milton Bradley, who was the designated hitter Wednesday, was upset by some words he heard from Royals television announcer Ryan Lefebvre and made a dash up to the fourth floor to confront Lefebvre.

This is a major downside to DH'ing Bradley--it gives him far too much time to brood and/or spring into action. Sticking him in the outfield means he's only a threat to his teammates and low-flying aircraft.

For more of Milton, in his own words this time, we refer you to our interview of last year with Mr. Bradley.

Triple Crown Wrapup

We should have seen this coming.

Here at the Gazette, we take the approach in the Triple Crown that history repeats itself frequently. That's why Big Brown's Derby win was a shocker...but it's also not going to lead to a cavalcade of horses winning the Derby in their fourth start. Big Brown took advantage of one of the worst classes of three year olds in ages to win a pair of big races and fool us into thinking he was Seattle Slew. (Well, most of us. There's a lot of us, myself included, who weren't buying the hype, but still thought he was really talented.)

The thing is, we've seen this exact same scenario play out twice in the last ten years. 1999 presented us with a Derby crop that could most charitably be described as mediocre, with absolutely nobody standing out come Derby Day. The class was so weak, two fillies entered the Derby, and one of them was co-favored with a gelding that looked like he was over the top. Come Derby day, Charismatic makes a small leap forward off his unheralded Lexington win, and then romps in the Preakness over many of the same horses. But the Belmont was a different story--the horse, while injured during the race, wasn't winning anyway, and delivered a subpar performance in the Belmont while improving longshots Lemon Drop Kid and Vision and Verse dueled to the wire. It was pretty clear leading up to the race that Charismatic was vulnerable, it just wan't clear who would take advantage.

We had this again in 2002, where War Emblem rode a speed bias to win the Derby over a hideous class of three year olds (the Derby favorite was a whopping 5-1) and barely held on in the Preakness to beat a 43-1 shot. When he stumbled out of the gate in the Belmont, it opened the race to chaos, as nobody else had proven they were any good. And chaos we got, in the form of 70-1 shot Sarava winning it all.

The difference this year was that Big Brown looked dominant because his 5 wins were effortless. But the signs that the Belmont would be different were there. The breeding issues. The quartercrack. The oppressive heat yesterday. The tight schedule of racing. It wasn't hard to see that he was going to lose yesterday. Hell, we picked it.

What was tough to see was Da'Tara coming up with the blanket of carnations. But the same damn thing that happened in 1999 and 2002 happened again: the rest of the horses were so sub-par that chaos determined the race. This time, the chaos was lone speed with a horse with decent breeding. If Denis of Cork was really a good horse, he should have won. But he didn't. And that's why those who played Da'Tara yesterday were dead-on: they knew that because of Casino Drive's scratch, after Big Brown, the race was a total toss-up. Why not take a stab on a horse that at least ran competitively in his last, rather than a boring horse like Tale of Ekati?

Welcome to the hall of Triple Crown winners, Da'Tara. But don't think that this makes you the next Point Given. More likely, he's in the basement level with Commendable, Sarava and Editor's Note. We may see him again in the Travers and Breeders Cup, but it's possible this will be his first and only big race win.

And that does it for our conventional horse racing coverage until Saratoga, where we'll pop in and out with some minor notes on the meet or racing in general. Back to fantasy baseball.

Belmont Stakes Preview Part III: The Countdown

Can Big Brown pull it off?

He's done absolutely everything asked of him to date, and it's a helluva lot. Five wins on two different surfaces, with multiple trainers and jockeys, in 4 different states, and he hasn't had a tough time yet. There's a lot of smoke, fire and hullaballo over his connections being unsavory and schmucks in general, but there's no denying that this horse is talented.

There's also no denying that he's picked the absolutely perfect year to come and make this type of a splash. His Derby was good, but it wouldn't have beaten Street Sense last year, and while he probably would have run harder if necessary in the Preakness, he still would've been lengths behind the last 4 winners. You can only run against the horses from your generation, and it's not his fault that this class stinks, but the fact that he's "dominated" lesser horses to date has to be considered when evaluating just how well he's run recently. It's quite possible this is the tip of the iceberg of his talent and he's just unfortunate to not get credit because his competition blows, a la Seattle Slew but let's not also dismiss the possibility that he's just pulling another Charismatic and catching fire at just the right time.

Pointless banter aside, it's the final leg of the Triple Crown. Let's count 'em down in reverse order, while trying not to be too redundant with our other publication. For another fantastic look at the Derby, check out our brethren at East Coast Bias.

This is Just Mean

10. Guadalcanal. For reasons unclear, we've got a horse in this race who hasn't won a race yet. This isn't totally unheard of in Europe, but is a rarity here. We're getting all the usual excuses, he's bred for the distance, he finished well in his last, blah blah blah. The truth is, what's the point? What's the best case scenario, he finishes 4th? Why not run in a solid maiden race instead? Horses don't recover quickly from 12-furlong dirt races. Let's hope this guy makes it out in one piece.

Outsiders Looking In

9. Da' Tara. The lesser of the two Nick Zito horses, he comes in off a fairly blase runner up finish in the Barbaro Stakes on the Preakness undercard, which came right after his 5th place finish in the Derby Trial. It's tough to like him when it's difficult to like...

8. Macho Again...the horse that beat him by five lengths in the Derby Trial. The 2nd place finisher in the Preakness looks to move forward off that effort, but a re-examination of the Preakness shows that his 2nd wasn't so much a great effort as it was a matter of finishing there by default. Someone had to run 2nd, and a couple of more deserving horses had traffic trouble in the race. It's difficult to see him moving forward off his last, and it's much more likely he's already run his best race and will regress to a non-threatening back of the pack finish here.

7. Tale of Ekati. He should rate better than this, what with a Grade 1 win and a decent pedigree to get the distance, but something may be amiss with this guy--he had a pair of poor workouts prior to his last one which was okay. You never want to see quotes like this from your trainer, especially one as good as Barclay Tagg:

Wood Memorial winner Tale of Ekati worked a slow 1:18.47 on Monday morning under jockey Eibar Coa, which left trainer Barclay Tagg visibly frustrated. Tagg said, "I don't know how a world-class rider can go out there and work (a horse) in 1:18 - I just don't know, I told him go in 1:12." Coa said, "He was acting a little bit weird today. I didn't want to force him to do something that I didn't feel was the right thing. He's a better worker than that."

Now yes, he did follow that up with a better effort, but this came after a bad workout on Preakness day as well. To top it off, he's still light in the Beyer department, and I feel we've already seen his best race, which wasn't that great. Time to move on.

Solely Exotics Filler

6. Ready's Echo. Clunked up for 3rd in the Peter Pan and should be running late again, and has Todd Pletcher in his corner. That's it for the positives with this guy, as he's yet to run a truly fast race and doesn't have the breeding (More Than Ready?) for 12 furlongs. You also have to question any Pletcher horse that's going to be a huge price. Some trainers (Zito, Lukas, Jerkens) are always deadly, even with longshots. Pletcher, by contrast, rarely has horses that greatly outrun their odds. If a horse is double-digit odds, chances are, it runs like one, with the only exceptions that pop to mind being Invisible Ink's & Bluegrass Cat's 2nds in the Derby; the former running before Pletcher was a juggernaut and the latter being more than double the price he should have been in the race. Still, it's not impossible to see him clunking up late to round out a superfecta.

5. Icabad Crane. Despite finishing behind Macho Again in the Preakness, he's a lot more interesting in the Belmont, as he had a fairly poor trip in the Preakness that probably cost him second, is much better bred to get the distance, and is from connections that could coax him into a money finish. The biggest quibble with him is the question of locale, as his two best races have come at Pimlico, and it's not unreasonable to think he won't be as good in New York. He's got next to no shot at actually winning the race, but if a couple of contenders misfire or get burned early, he's more likely than most to run third.

The Vanquished

4. Big Brown. Aaaaand, the road ends here. I'm not going to deny that there's a lot to like. But as I mentioned earlier, there are three keys to winning the Belmont nowadays: adequate rest, a top-shelf jockey, and distance breeding. Big Brown fails on two of these. He's now had 5 races in under 3 months, including this being his 3rd in 5 weeks, and has already had a foot malady that's probably worse than they're letting on. The jockey....no knock here on KJ Desormeaux. But the breeding? I think that's the Achilles Heel. And I think it hits him between the eyeballs with three furlongs to go while others are still running strong.

The Sleeper

3. Anak Nakal. Everyone's comparing him to 2004 Belmont winner Birdstone because he was an accomplished two year old, is from the Nick Zito barn, is a closer, skipped the Preakness after an okay Derby, and is trying to knock off a titan. The comparisons aren't bad, I'll grant that. The big difference is that Birdstone was a very good two year old--he won the Champagne in a fast time, and would have been the favorite in the Breeders Cup Juvenile had he been sent. His two losses prior to the Belmont had built-in excuses that he wasn't a mud horse. When we got a fast track at the Belmont, he was able to run again. By contrast, this guy isn't quite as fast or accomplished, but is bred to the wazoo for 12 furlongs. Definitely could sneak into triples at 30-1 or higher, but really tough to like to win unless the two faves fall apart and he gets first run on...

The Contenders

2. Denis of Cork. What type of racehorse wins the Belmont? Usually not a front-runner. Usually not a horse that makes a big move on a turn. And usually not a closer with an explosive late burst. No, it's most often an even-paced horse that sits off the pace, isn't affected by the early rush, and can keep grinding away at the lead for 12 furlongs. This guy fits the mold perfectly, and as I noted in the Derby preview, still has a lot of upside to hit. And his 3rd in the Derby was a pretty solid effort. The biggest issue: I don't love his pedigree at the distance. His daddy, Harlan's Holiday, flopped badly as the Derby favorite and wasn't stout enough to go more than 9 furlongs. How's that going to translate to his son?

1. Casino Drive. Yes, I'm aware of the foot bruise, but frankly, if he's still in the race come post-time, it means it's not that big an issue, as I don't see the connections taking any real chances here. If it's a real issue, he'll be scratched and just elevate Denis of Cork to the win slot. But besides the foot bruise, he has exactly one negative: his lack of experience. But as Big Brown has shown, even that's not a big deal, especially when contending with a mediocre field. If the foot's good, look for him to improve, take the steady and patient ride by Edgar Prado, and be in the winner's circle.

[Update: 9:02 a.m.---Casino Drive is scratched. Sigh. ---El Angelo]

Indiana? Let it go.

Tonight, elderly sportswriters around the country will soil themselves in unison as the Boston Celtics and the Los Angeles Lakers take the court to kick off this year's NBA Finals. This will mark the 11th time that the two franchises have met in the Finals, which we admit is remarkable given that the league has only had 62 championships in its history.

But in their rush to hype the series--which really doesn't need any hype, given the quality of the teams and players involved--nearly every major media source has gone out of its way to run columns touting the "historic rivalry" between the two teams. This trend culminated in Sports Illustrated's decision this week to run a two-page pictorial spread of nut-hugger-shorts-era meetings between the two teams.

But all of these maudlin reminiscences do raise a question that we here at the GRBG love to ask when we notice a pre-event hype meme: Who cares? Why should we care about this historic rivalry? The answer is that we probably shouldn't. Because the NBA has no history, and at this point the Celtics and Lakers don't have a rivalry.

History is Dunk

As the blank verse all-stars over at Free Darko have alluded to, the NBA is among the least history-obsessed of the North American sports, and that lack of historical focus has trickled down to the way fans perceive the game. When's the last time you heard anybody (other than Bill Simmons) cite the historic implications of an NBA matchup as a reason to watch? Or indeed seen any media reference to any person or event from the pre Larry-Magic NBA era?

Let's face it: in the collective mind of the general sporting public, the NBA does not exist prior to 1979, giving it an institutionalized sporting memory only slightly longer than that of street luge. Appeals to championship rivalries before that time are as meaningless as baseball references to the dead ball era--Sam Jones might as well be Old Hoss Radburn for all most people care, and peach baskets and flannel uniforms are of limited mass appeal.

So, this recent rash of historical perspective from the eight people on the planet who give even a fractional shit about the pre-Magic era is roughly as useful as tits on bull for 99% of the sporting public. It's useful mainly to keep Bob Ryan off the streets, and does nothing to deepen the average fan's anticipation for or appreciation of this year's series.

Some Learning and Growing May Occur

"But," we hear you say with impeccable straw man timing, "What about the 3 post-1979 Finals between Boston and L.A.? Doesn't that make coverage of the C's-Lakers rivalry relevant to this year's Final?"

Well, no. Because it's not a rivalry if nobody gives a shit about it for 20 years.

Let's perform a little thought experiment: Other than Celtics-Lakers, what are some other great '80s rivalries? And do those rivalries live on in the present?

1. U.S.A-U.S.S.R.

The big one, obviously, as in the '80s the U.S. spent billions of dollars and untold psychic energy to battle an artificial, polyglot empire of potato farmers and goat herders. The average Celtics fan hated any random Soviet hurdler more than they hated anyone on the Lakers (except Kurt Rambis). But as of about 1991, we all stopped caring. The next time the U.S. plays Russia in hockey, we confidently expect a total television audience of 2.

2. Royals-Yankees

Remember those playoff battles? Those were great, right? No, we're seriously asking, because we no longer remember.

3. Tiffany-Debbie Gibson

You get the idea.

Rivalries need regular tending in order to have continued resonance. Celtics-Lakers has been limited to generally meaningless bi-annual meetings for the past 2o or so years. That's an awfully long time to have to nurture memories of the halcyon days of yore. We all grew up and stopped caring. And who can blame us?

So please, media, let's have a little more about this year's teams--stuff like Kevin Garnett's competitiveness, Luke Walton's pedigree, Paul Pierce's stab wounds, Kobe Bryant's assault history . . .

On second thought, let's just stick to the box scores.

Belmont Stakes Preview Part II: Previous Attempts at Glory

Since Affirmed nosed out Alydar to win the Triple Crown in 1978, ten horses have entered the Belmont a mile and a half from immortality. All failed. Why didn't any of these horses succeed in their attempts to capture the Triple Crown?

1. The dice went cold. As three year olds can improve markedly at a moment's notice, sometimes in a weak year, a 3yo can get good and parlay it into a pair of wins in the classics, only to flop in the final leg, usually due to breeding or fatigue from the racing schedule. This is the equine equivalent of getting on a good run at a craps table but having it end with a 7 before hitting the biggest bet. This happened to Pleasant Colony, Alysheba, Charismatic and War Emblem. Even after their Preakness wins, nobody thought any of these horses were juggernauts, and few were surprised that they lost the Belmont.

2. They were lucky to be where they were. Some horses do win the Derby and Preakness despite it being clear they weren't the best horse in either or both race. Easy Goer fans blame Pat Day for Sunday Silence's Derby win, and the Belmont romp was their vindication. Silver Charm, while talented, was lucky to win the Derby and was even luckier when Touch Gold had a historically bad trip in the Preakness. It surprised nobody when Touch Gold turned the tables in the Belmont. And either because of hoof issues or just having a bad day, Empire Maker lost to Funny Cide in the Derby for no apparent reason, but paid back the favor in the Belmont. In all 3 cases, it was hard to argue the better horse lost the Belmont.

3. Human error. Spectacular Bid was one of the 10 greatest horses ever and lost the Triple Crown because his jockey got him in a suicidal duel with a hopeless longshot. Stewart Elliot, similarly in over his head, ended up having Smarty Jones duel on the lead for the first 10 furlongs only to have nothing left to fend off grinder Birdstone. And Kent Desormeaux was roundly criticized for moving prematurely on Real Quiet, who was nosed at the wire by the late-surging Victory Gallop. All 3 of these horses, with slightly better rides, should have been Triple Crown winners.

We can't dismiss any of these scenarios for Big Brown. He may have simply been hot for 2 straight races and will now get caught come furlongs 11 and 12. Casino Drive may turn out to be his Easy Goer/Touch Gold and surpass him in the stretch. And Desormeaux may foul up again, opening the door for someone like Denis of Cork.

Or, he just might be that good and be our 12th Triple Crown winner.