2010 Belmont Preview

There are probably going to be about 9000 articles published concerning the Belmont this year, 8700 of which will discuss, either primarily or tangentially, NYRA's financial woes, the state of New York racing, Monmouth's challenge to New York racing's supremacy this summer, the absence of slot machines, or the conflicts with OTB. We're sick of those pieces. Let's instead just focus on the race at hand.

For only the third time since 1970, we have a Belmont that has neither the Derby nor Preakness winner. Let's take a look at those two editions to see if they provide any relevant information for this race:

2000: Derby winner and phenom Fusaichi Pegasus is upset in the Preakness by Red Bullet, and while both were perfectly healthy, neither goes to the Belmont; the former because of a bruised foot and the latter because they wanted to point for the Travers, which he would never make. The two would combined to win three races for the rest of their career: Fusaichi Pegasus' dominant Jerome in September, and Red Bullet's win in an allowance race and something called the Foggy Road Stakes.

Instead of being treated to Round 3 of a fun and budding rivalry, the Belmont had an 11 horse field, where Aptitude was made the strong favorite off a 3rd place finish (behind FuPeg and Red Bullet) in the Wood and a 2nd place finish in the Derby but still had only won one race in his career. The next selections in the betting were Unshaded, winner of the Peter Pan; Impeachment, who had just run a pair of non-threatening 3rds in the Derby and Preakness; Curule, who was from Dubai; and Wheelaway, who had won a minor stakes race and menaced for about 7 seconds in the Derby. A stellar group of horses this was not.

And a goofy result is exactly what we got. After pace setter Hugh Hefner set moderate fractions and folded like a tent, D. Wayne Lukas' Commendable took the lead with 6 furlongs to go and never looked back, upsetting the field at 18-1. And this price was probably short: he had only finished better than 4th once (winning his first race) and had just lost the Derby by 27 lengths. Aptitude, Unshaded and Wheelaway got moving too late and could never catch the stalker in the stretch. 50% of the credit for the win goes to Pat Day for a tremendous ride, 45% of the credit goes to Lukas for a great training job, and 5% goes to the horse, who never won another race.

2006: Derby winner Barbaro was a permanent patient with Dr. Dean Richardson and Preakness winner Bernardini passed on the Belmont to point for the Travers (which, unlike Red Bullet, he won easily). Like 2000, this left us with a fairly motley crew of horses to contest the 1 1/2 mile Test of Champions:

• Five horses that ran in the Derby but skipped the Preakness, either for rest or to duck Barbaro. This included the top four choices: Bob and John, Bluegrass Cat, Steppenwolfer and Jazil, plus longshot Deputy Glitters. Clearly, the public thought the cream of the crop consisted of horses that ran in the Derby.
  
• Two also-rans from the Preakness (Hemingway's Key and Platinum Couple) who were dismissed in the betting at 15-1 and 38-1, respectively.
• Three horses out of allowance races, including a horse that won a race on the Derby undercard (Sacred Light, 36-1), one who previously ran at Belmont (High Finance, 10-1) and a Euro shipper making his dirt debut (Oh So Awesome, 12-1).
• The winner of New York's traditional prep for the Belmont, Sunriver.
  
• A maiden. What's worse is that Double Galore was only 45-1.

Once the gates opened, four horses scrambled for the lead--including fave Bob and John--resulting in a fairly quick opening half mile of 47.1 seconds. The end result was predictable, as the 1-2-3-4 leaders early on finished 8-10-11-DNF. Todd Pletcher's pair of Bluegrass Cat and Sunriver were just off the leaders poised to win, but they were passed on the turn by closer Jazil, who rallied stoutly and held on to win over both horses. It was...his last career win.

So what can we draw from these two races? Well, pace indeed does make the race. The absence of the other classic winners puts a premium on how the other horses run in the early fractions, because there isn't a horse or two in the field that everyone fears. And the four keys we previously identified remain important to picking the winner: good distance breeding, a jockey who knows how to handle a long race, an intelligent trainer, and relative freshness entering the race.

With that in mind, let's take a look at this year's entrants from predicted worst to predicted first. We remind everyone that while we're looking for a winner, we're also interested in a price, so if it's between two horses we give roughly the same shot at wildly divergent odds, we'll always favor the longshot.

Remember Sarava!

12. Spangled Star. In his first career race, he ran a Gowanus Speed Figure of 2. Is that the worst GSF ever for a horse running in a Triple Crown race? He ran 4150% better in his last race--a non-threatening third in the Withers, a mile race around one turn--and his only win was when he broke his maiden on January 2nd in Delaware Park. Even implausible bombs Da'Tara and Sarava had better credentials than this guy.

11. Dave in Dixie. In his lone dirt start, he was thrashed by American Lion and Backtalk, who were up the track in the Derby, and Yawanna Twist, who just ran 4th in the Preakness. He lacks tactical speed, distance breeding and the talent to run particularly fast. Outside of that, we're sure he's a lovely animal to get to know.

10. Uptowncharliebrown. His father (Limehouse) was a successful sprinter, as was his mom's sire (Langfuhr). If they decide to call it a race after 7 furlongs, he stands a chance.

Good Trainer, Mediocre Horse

9. Game On Dude. Comes in off a fresh speed figure top in an impressive win in the Lone Star Derby. Unfortunately, that means nothing, as there were no other horses of note running against him, and a whopping zero winners of the Lone Star Derby have ever won a Grade 1 stakes race. He's very likely to be overbet because he's trained by Bob Baffert, which is good, because he doesn't have much of a chance.

8. Drosselmeyer. Billy Mott's a fantastic trainer, but this horse appears to be a hanger: he passes absolutely nobody in the stretch and was nowhere near the winner in the Dwyer in his last start. He seems to have plateaued as a mediocre horse who might have a future on the grass.

Tough To Endorse a Closer

7. Make Music For Me. Some parallels exist between this guy and the 2006 Belmont winner Jazil: both are dead closers, both clunked up for 4th in a Derby with a solid pace, both only had one win before the Belmont. Here's the two big differences: Jazil was well-bred (this guy isn't), and Jazil had shown some potential before the Derby in running a decent second in the Wood. The Derby is the aberration on this guy's past performance line, which contains only one other start with a GSF over 83 (on the turf, no less) and no starts on a fast track. Unless we see a rainstorm on Saturday, look for a big regression to the mean for this guy.

6. Stately Victor. Quite similar to Make Music For Me in style and past performances, with the big differences being a win in the Blue Grass at 40-1 and a less inspired run on the Derby. We don't like this guy's breeding for the big race, however--Ghostzapper, while arguably the best horse of the last decade, wasn't really bred to route, and his dam was a turf miler. And he's going to have to out kick a few down the stretch, including...

5. Ice Box. The probable favorite, he's eerily similar to Aptitude in 2000, who ran a very good 3rd in the Wood, then an excellent 2nd in the Derby when closing from the back of the pack, and sat out the Preakness to wait for the Belmont. With the Derby and Preakness winners skipping the Belmont, he was the heavy favorite...and ran second to longshot Commendable, who sat off a moderate pace and had plenty left for the stretch. While everyone assumed that Aptitude would improve off his prior two efforts, he instead stagnated and couldn't do better than the 2 slot.

We see something similar happening on Saturday. There's not much pace in the race, and Ice Box has shown that he runs best when he's 15+ lengths out of it. To win, he'll have to make up ground on horses that won't have run particularly fast in their first 8 furlongs. And as we saw in the Derby, being a stone closer leaves you vulnerable to traffic trouble, and jockey Jose Lezcano has done nothing to show us that he's good enough to coax the right ride out of this horse. So yes, we'll concede that he's quite likely to finish in the money and is a solid bet for a show pool. But to win at a short price? We'll look elsewhere, thanks.

The Contenders

4. First Dude. Lone speed? Maybe. He's going to get a ton of play and be the second choice because he just ran a pretty nice Preakness and is the only horse that clearly is going to be at the front. And his breeding isn't bad for the distance. Still, we're a little wary. The 16-point jump in GSF from his prior race has "bounce" written all over it, and the same's true even if you toss out the polytrack Blue Grass and look to his Florida Derby. And he had a picture-perfect trip in the Preakness, which probably contributed to the GSF top. Conventional wisdom is saying that there's no other speed in the race but we're not sure about that--we think Game On Dude will be near the lead, and it wouldn't surprise us if Drosselmeyer pressed the pace as well. Given that, is this guy going to get the same love trip again? It's unlikely.

3. Interactif. Here's another horse who may be part of the early running. He's flashed speed in the majority of his races, has drawn the outside post, and has Javier Castellano in the irons, a jockey not known for his patience. So why are we putting him higher than First Dude? Well, the short answer is it's Pletcher at 12-1 or higher, which may qualify as an automatic play. But there's more to like here as well: great distance breeding, good foundation and freshness, and tactical speed. We fully recognize that he hasn't had a ton of success on the dirt, but he hasn't given it a real shot since last July, and Pletcher has been meaning to run him on dirt all year. We like him to threaten early and hang around for a piece.

2. Stay Put. Our longshot du jour. Addressing the obvious problems first: yes, he's never finished better than 5th in a stakes race, 2 of his 3 wins came in the slop, and he hasn't topped a 90 GSF. We still think this guy's sitting on a big effort at a huge price. He's bred to run 12 furlongs, as Broken Vow horses should handle the distance with ease and Dixieland Band is a perfectly fine damsire. We like trainer Steve Margolis, who has a Breeders Cup win (Cajun Beat, 2003 Sprint) and just hasn't quite gotten the top level of stock needed to compete with the big boys. We like that he's coming in with 5 weeks of rest off a sharp effort on Derby Day. And he gets into the winner's circle: he has been there three times, which is twice more than First Dude & Make Music for Me and once more than Game on Dude and Drosselmeyer. We see him being near the back of the pack and closing stoutly to hit the board at a huge price.

The Pick

1. Fly Down. There's a lot to like here, starting with the breeding: a Mineshaft horse should have no trouble getting 12 furlongs and his half sister won multiple route stakes races. His connections (Nick Zito & John Velazquez) are impeccable. He's run three times this year, meeting the freshness requirement. And let's take a close look at his five career races:

• 1st start: closes well to finish 3rd in a maiden race. Long-time East Coast racing fans know this is typical for a Zito maiden.
• 2nd start: breaks his maiden around 2 turns at Churchill in a somewhat slow time while rallying off a solid enough pace. In the process he beats First Dude.
• 3rd start: given 3 months to grow into himself as a 3yo, he makes his seasonal debut winning an allowance race at Gulfstream...once again over First Dude. Importantly, this win was at 9 furlongs around two turns.
  
• 4th start: Zito (or probably, the owner) catches Derby fever and throws him to the wolves in the Louisiana Derby. Predictably, he closes belatedly to finish a non-threatening ninth.
• 5th start: Running in the Dwyer, he throttles Drosselmeyer and others by sitting off an average pace to win by 6 going away. Unlike his Louisiana Derby flop, he's not well off the pace--he's in last, but only 6 lengths off the leaders.
  

What we have here is a horse primed to take the next step forward, to sit a perfect trip just off the leaders, and the stamina to hold off the closers. And we expect that he'll be a decent price (5-1?). Here's your 2010 Belmont Stakes winner.

Playing the Race

We suspect that Ice Box will be around 2-1 and First Dude will be around 5-2, meaning that our pick and our underneath horses will all be square prices. We like not only a win bet on Fly Down but also exactas and trifectas with Interactif and Stay Put. And make sure to check out the Pick Four that ends in the Belmont--each of the races has 10+ horses and vulnerable favorites (Bribon, Amen Hallelujah and Gio Ponti) to beat.

Good luck and enjoy the races!!

Jerry Manuel: Managing by Arson

Twenty-two hours later and the Mets' 2-0 loss to the Brewers still hurts. Not because the Brewers beat the Mets--both teams are basically .500 squads and it was a road game for the Mets. No, it's how it was lost, and specifically, manager Jerry Manuel's utter disregard for a little thing called common sense.

For those that haven't seen the game or read the boxscore, here's the scenario entering the bottom of the 9th:

• 0-0 score;
• Johan Santana was pitching quite well (5 baserunners in 8 innings) and had thrown only 105 pitches;
• Due up for the Brewers were their two best players, Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun, followed by the not-horrible Casey McGehee and the hitting-well Corey Hart.

Jackass Jerry has three options here.

1. Leave in Johan, who's only their best pitcher and had put together a fine effort for the first 8 innings.
2. Pull Johan for a lefty to face Fielder, and then put in K-Rod to get out Braun, McGehee and Hart, who are the only other three hitters in the Brewers lineup you care about.
3. Pull Johan for a lefty to face Fielder and then put in your 5th best reliever to face the rest of the meat of the Brewers lineup.

It's unclear which is the better of option of #1 or #2. I'm of the opinion that if you're going to go down, go down with your best players on the hill. That's Johan Santana. And while 105 pitches isn't a small amount, for 8 innings, it's fairly impressive. There was zero reason to take him out, especially because the Brewers best hitters were coming up. Is there a single person on the Mets' pitching staff that had a better chance to get through the 3-6 part of the order than him?

Well, okay, maybe Santana's gassed and tells you this in the dugout, and you decide that he's had enough. Fine...oh wait. Jerry Manuel said that he never consulted his best pitcher before pulling him and took him out because Santana was fired up when he struck out Carlos Gomez in the 8th inning:

Manuel also said that when Santana recorded the final out of the eighth on a strikeout of Carlos Gomez, the ace was overly excited on the mound. The manager indicated those sorts of demonstrative showings, such as a fist pump, are often telltale signs that a pitcher has expended his last burst of energy and is ready to be removed.

Wow. Okay, so the source for the Mets' manager's information isn't logic, the pitcher's opinion or a single piece of data, it's the fact his pitcher showed emotion. This inspires great confidence that Manuel knows how to manage a team that's had half its roster spend a good portion of the last two years in the ER.

Anyway, so you're taking out Santana. Let's just assume that's not a stupid move. The next thing Manuel did is bring in LOOGY Pedro Feliciano, which is fine, because Prince has a decent split between facing righties (.294/.404/.568) and lefties (.257/.335/.484). And this move pays off, and Fielder makes the first out.

Now Feliciano is coming out, because Braun eats up lefties. Fine. And Jerry decides to bring in...

Ryota Igarashi???

Why not Francisco Rodriguez? No really....why not the best reliever on your staff to face the 4-5-6 portion of the Brewers lineup? Manuel hasn't said so, but there's only one possible explanation: because it wasn't a save situation. We know K-Rod was available, because he had warmed up an inning earlier.

This logic is patently absurd and probably cost the Mets the game. Your best pitchers should face the other team's best hitters. There is no other reason to have pitchers like Santana or K-Rod but to get out the other team's best hitters. Letting crap artists like Ryota Igarashi face Ryan Braun and Corey Hart when you have your best relief pitcher available isn't stupid, it's managerial malpractice.

So Jerry, that's another game you've cost the Mets this year by letting the save rule dictate how you use your pitchers. Congratulations on wasting a vintage Santana performance and crushing all the momentum that the team built up during its sweep of the Phillies, and for giving every fan a bad taste in their mouth. It's about the 6th time you've done it this year, and it isn't even Memorial Day. Just remember this when you're polishing your resume in October.

The LeBron Sweepstakes

As you may have heard, LeBron James' Cleveland Cavaliers have been evicted from the playoffs by Teddy's beloved Celtics, ending their 2010 season and LeBron's contract with the Cavs. In a countdown the likes of which we haven't seen since Y2K and the maturation of the Olsen Twins, we're under 5 weeks away from LeBron's free agency. And the entire sports world is speculating: where will he go?

Since everyone's polluting the internet with rampant speculation based on absolutely nothing, we figured we'd join in the game as well. We did this once before with A-Rod, which we got titanically wrong, but had a fun time doing. So let's dust off an old trick and once again countdown where we think LeBron should land, from least to most likely. We are going to take into account everything that a free agent should: roster composition, cap room, coach, and location.

You Get To Pick Where You Live, Right?

30. Memphis. We spent 5 minutes trying to figure out who was the best free agent this franchise has ever signed. The answer is a toss-up between Lee Mayberry and James Posey.

29. Minnesota. This franchise couldn't pursuade Ricky Rubio to leave the Euro League to play in the NBA for more money because it would have meant splitting time with Jonny Flynn and shoveling snow with Marge Gunderson. It's doubtful they can convince LeBron that his future lies in the hands of David Kahn.

28. Sacramento. The most famous people affiliated with Sacto are the Maloof Brothers, Justice Anthony Kennedy, Rodney King, and Joan Didion. We'd pay $500 to see LeBron have brunch with that group.

27. Milwaukee. They're actually trying to build a winner here, but if one of your goals is to be the Global Icon, the Cheese State is probably not the place to do it.

Now This Would Be Funny

26. Atlanta. This team has been competitive for two straight years and still has no fans. Also, what are the odds that LeBron and Josh Smith would get into a fight in the locker room? 1-20?

25. Washington. Congrats on winning the lottery! Condolences on the rest of your roster consisting of Gilbert Arenas, Gilbert Arenas' contract, Gilbert Arenas' guns, Tom Gugliotta, and 10 stiffs.

24. Golden State. Put aside problems associated with the potential sale of the team to Larry Ellison: this squad is already designed like a schoolyard team playing shirts and skins. This would be the NBA equivalent of A-Rod signing with the Rockies: an easy way to get to records, and nearly impossible to win anything in the process.

23. Charlotte. LeBron + The Utterly Batshit Crazy Stephen Jackson. We're still laughing at the concept.

We Have No Money

22. Indiana. Is there a less interesting team in pro sports than the Pacers? In the last 4 years they've won 32, 36, 36 and 35 games, haven't drafted high or a stud in 5 years, and somehow are still in salary cap hell.

21. Toronto. For the 2012-13 season, this franchise has committed almost $38 million to Andrea Bargnani, Hedo Terkoglu, Jose Calderon and Jarrett Jack. We can't quite figure out how this happened because they fired Isiah Thomas over a decade ago.

20. Detroit. Similarly trapped in salary cap purgatory, they also have the double whammy of sucking.

19. Philadelphia. Somehow a team not run by Isiah has over $65 million in salary commitments for next year and had the 6th worst record in basketball last year. Oops.

18. New Orleans. And these guys have committed $73 million in salary commitments for next year, including a mind-boggling $11.5 million to Chukwuemeka Ndubuisi Okafor.

Doesn't Fit With Our Master Plan

17. Boston. They're about to win the Eastern Conference with a stud PG and an aging core. While there isn't a team that would say "no" to LeBron, we can't quite see how he fits in here, both monetarily or talent-wise.

16. Orlando. Well, he'd be a huge improvement from Vinsanity and Rashard Lewis' disappearance act this postseason, but the core of this roster seems pretty set for the near future, for better or for worse.

15. Utah. $54 million in contracts for next year, plus needs to decide what to do with Carlos Boozer. They'd be a potential player if it were 2011 with AK-47 coming off the books, but it's 2010.

14. San Antonio. They're probably going to shake it up a little this offseason with an aging core, but it's unclear how or why LeBron would go here to play with Tim Duncan for two years, unless he wants to steal Eva Longoria's heart.

Why Would I Play With Another SuperDuperStar?

13. Denver. We're sure him and Carmelo get along and all, and we agree that LeBron's better off going to a team that has at least one All-Star, but going to play with one of his top rivals seems unlikely, especially when you take into account they don't know who their coach is gonna be. Also, why sign up to play with guys like Kenyon Martin (right) who are never healthy?

12. Los Angeles Lakers. LeBron + Kobe? No. F'ing. Way.

11. Miami. People are hyping this as a real destination, but we can't see him and Dwayne Wade on the same team. Forget that LeBron won't want to be co-alpha dog with Wade, why would Wade want to cede the spotlight in South Beach to LeBron?

Why Bother?

10. Cleveland. People are talking about how "loyal" LeBron could be by staying with Cleveland. Please. Cleveland ended up with James because they got ass-lucky in the 2003 lottery and got the first overall pick. They didn't draft him late, develop and nurture him like a minor leaguer baseball or hockey team. They took him because they were lucky. So because Cleveland got lucky in 2003, exploited him for all he was worth during that stretch, and paid his salary regularly while giving him 7 years of horrible supporting casts, he's supposed to spend the prime of his career living in the middle of Ohio? How does this make any sense?

Would Work and Be Fun, But Won't Happen

9. Phoenix. Steve Nash + LeBron + fun supporting cast (Richardson, Lopez, Frye and a few others) would actually be a competitive team even if they let Amar'e walk. We're not sure how they'd make this work cap-wise though, and while Phoenix is a magnet city, we can't quite see him in purple and gold.

8. Houston. The Rockets have said they intend to make a splash this offseason. Unfortunately, they appear to be looking for a big man like Chris Bosh, not The King.

7. Los Angeles Clippers. Yeah yeah yeah, they have the cap space, and have a good nucleus of Baron, Kaman, Blake Griffin, Bill Simmons and Eric Gordon. Close your eyes for a second. Can you honestly see LeBron wearing a Clippers uniform, playing for Donald Sterling? Didn't think so.

6. Oklahoma City. LeBron, Kevin Durant, and a fun young supporting cast would make this the dominant team for the decade. There are three real problems here: we can't see how it works under the cap, we can't see how Oklahoma City can potentially afford to pay LeBron, Durant and Russell Westbrook a total of $50 million every year, and we can't see why the Global Icon would leave Ohio for Oklahoma, unless he's obsessed with the letter "O".

Tons of Cap Space, No Players

5. New Jersey. We love that everyone says this team has great building blocks for LeBron. Didn't they just go 12-70? Yes, this Flying Lopez Brother is a nice center, whoever they take #3 (Derrick Favors?) will be a good enough player, and Devin Harris isn't garbage. But would you want to play in Newark for 2-3 years with that cast before you could really start trying to win? Didn't think so. Ranked this high simply because of the Jay-Z connection.

4. New York. The Knicks only work if they can convince LeBron and somebody else like Bosh, Boozer or Amar'e to come along. The King plus one of the front court guys plus Galinari isn't a bad troika to start with, and you know the Knicks will attract decent veterans to play in the Garden with LeBron. Still, we get the appeal of the biggest city in the world and the tabula rasa approach to building your team, but this may be too big a hurdle even for LeBron. Plus, by all accounts, Mike D'Antoni isn't getting the best press amongst players these days.

Has the Talent and Means

3. Dallas. Has the easy ability to do a sign-and-trade with Erick Dampier's and Caron Butler's expiring contracts to offer; offers a very good nucleus to walk into; has a crazy/great owner that would cater to LeBron's whims. This looks like a clear question of desire: if James wants to go here, this will happen.

2. Chicago. We're not going to rehash Simmons' arguments because he's right: LeBron with Derrick Rose, Luol Deng, Joakim Noah, Kirk Heinrich and some other stiffs would be a very good team. This almost seems too easy and obvious, though, kinda like the A-Rod to Philadelphia rumors a few years ago. And we can't see him wanting to move to the city where Jordan dominated.

Where He Should Go

1. Portland. They're getting no little to no attention as a possible suitor, but we think this is the perfect match for the King. They have:

• An absolutely perfect second banana in Brandon Roy, whose outside shooting would complement LeBron perfectly;
• A good young big man in LaMarcus Aldridge;
• A good veteran big man in Marcus Camby;
• A few intriguing young players; and
  
• A rabid fan base and an owner that will spend money.

What they don't have is cap room at the moment. What they also have, though, are tradeable contracts that would make for a perfect sign and deal. Which leads to our simultaneously brilliant and moronic sign-and-trade proposal which we think works under the cap:

LeBron to the Blazers for Andre Miller, Martell Webster and...Greg Oden.

This solves a lot of problems that other deals or proposals don't solve. LeBron goes to a contender. Cleveland is obviously hurt by LeBron's loss, but gets a starting point guard, a young player and a fantastic wildcard in return, cushioning the blow somewhat. And Greg Oden gets a chance to start his career again--in Ohio, where he went to college, for crying out loud--and be closer to the Mayo Clinic to repair his busted legs.

So let's see it happen. Because this would re-tilt the balance of power to the West so dramatically, and set up some great rivalries for the rest of the decade. Pull the trigger, Portland, and LeBron, make it happen.

Transactions Analysis: Squadoosh Free Edition

It's only been a week since the last TA, but amazingly, everyone in the league has managed to make a transaction, making this edition Squadoosh-Free. It also makes it craptastic, because honestly, this is one of the worst collections of fantasy players I've ever seen. Let's see what made everyone jump at their keyboard this week. (El Angelo)

This is borderline Entrapment, but I’ll allow it. God, what Douglas has done to her is a crime. (Teddy)

The Little Green One

• Signed Daisuke Matsuzaka, SP, Boston; Released Craig Kimbrel, RP, Atlanta [5/14]

Our first pickup this week is a guy who has had 1 good start in 3 tries this year, which is appropos, because he had 1 good season in his first three years with the Red Sox. If you can spot start him correctly, you'll get 9 decent starts a year out of him, meaning you're using a roster spot on a player that contributes 5.6% of the time. Call me crazy, but that seems like shitty roster management, though it might be inspired genius compared to having the Braves' third ROOGY actually playing for you. (El Angelo)

I know the stat to look for when spotting Dice-K for starts, and will let this owner know as soon as he trades me Chase Utley on favorable terms. (Teddy)

The Spam Avengers

• Released Nolan Reimold, OF, Baltimore [5/13]
• Signed Chris Coghlan, OF, Florida [5/17]

Clearest sign that a team is in win-now mode: in a week, dropping the better long-term player for a short-term potential gain. Of course, when the pickup is putting up an almost unfathomable .214/.272/.270 slash line, it means that Nolan Reimold should be working on his GED. (El Angelo)

Right, it’s the “potential gain” side of the equation where I have a few questions, given that Chris Coghlan was really only a 2- or 3-category guy when he was playing well last year. Reimold, of course, is a Norfolk Tide at the moment, so cutting him seems like a decent idea—if you can’t stick with the 2d-worst offensive team in the A.L., you probably aren’t a viable fantasy option. (Teddy)

The Revenge Society

• Signed Derek Holland, SP, Texas; Released Eric Young the Lesser, 2B, Colorado [5/12]
  
• Released Cliff Pennington, SS, Oakland [5/13]
• Signed Aaron Heilman, RP, Notre Dame; Released Jim Thome, Creaky Hitter, Minnesota [5/17]

Sign #483 that we are old: Eric Young Jr., whose father I had on multiple fantasy teams, is now a viable fantasy player. Sign #484: Aaron Heilman has gone from prospect to bust to useful to crap to potential source for saves. Again, this may say more about the D-Backs than it does about Heilman's efficacy. (El Angelo)

Angelo carries around the burden of what the Germans call Metropolitzangst, which is coloring his view of the pickup of Heilman, the former Met. I was actually thinking of grabbing him myself when the league leaders snaked in. Once again, the guys headed in here are superior to the ones going out, which is about all you can do as a fantasy GM. (Teddy)

Le Dupont Torkies

• Signed Johnny Cueto, SP, Cincy; Released John Baker, C, Florida [5/12]

As I type this, Johnny Cueto is throwing a 1-run gem for the first-place Reds while mired away on Tucker's bench. So the pickup is good, but you have to use the players you have, rather than relying on the dessicated remains of Chris Volstad. Maybe this is why this team is below me for the first time in 7 years. (El Angelo)

I had Cueto, but cut him in a fit of pique after he surrendered a bases-loaded walk to Alex Cora a couple of weeks ago. I now worry that I sacrificed a potentially useful piece just to get the short-term endorphin rush of shitcanning him. But I won’t lie, it felt real good at the time. (Teddy)

Jeters Never Prosper

• Signed Hisanori Takahashi, RP, New York (NL); Released Josh Outman, SP, Oakland [5/12]

What the hell could have happened to your roster that your plan would have included picking up a Met middle reliever? K-Rod is not getting dethroned, and if he's hurt, Takahashi is unlikely to take over closing duties? Is this a form of self-flagellation because the owner had Dallas Braden one his bench when he threw a perfect game? (El Angelo)

See above re Metropolitzangst. (Teddy)

Wu Tang Financial

• Signed Jason Vargas, SP, Seattle; Released Justin Masterson, SP, Cleveland [5/16]

The most notable thing that's happened in Jason Vargas' career is being drafted in 2004 the pick before Ray Liotta. (El Angelo)

Vargas is a…wait, really? Ang, are you making that up?

Huh, I guess not.

Anyway, Vargas is a useful spot guy as long as you keep him away from HR-friendly parks. At this point, his major problem is that he plays for a team that hasn’t won a game since Tax Day, and whose major FA signing (Chone Figgins) is currently putting up an incomprehensible line of .182/.306/.242. (Teddy)

Duck-Duck-Duck-Fuke

• Signed James Loney, 1B, Los Angeles; Released Jose Lopez, Jack of All Trades, Seattle [5/12]
• Released David Freese, 3B, St. Louis and Chris Snyder, C, Arizona [5/17]

Didn't Will pick James Loney in the draft and have him on the team all along? I feel like something went wrong here. At any rate, I'm not sure about the dropping of David Freese--he's the only Cardinal not named Rasmus that's been hitting a lick this year, and the third base crop is absurdly shallow. Yeah they have Young, but can you trust him to stay healthy for the entire year? (El Angelo)

Loney is living the Lyle Overbite lifestyle, getting OB, hitting for a nice average, but with power that is juuuuust short of adequate. He’ll be a fantasy roster yo-yo for years. Freese is like a 28 year-old second-year guy who has stumbled into a position on a decent team, meaning he’s on the Brian Daubach path. And nobody ever lost a league because they had too little faith in Brian Daubach. (Teddy)

Gowanus Superfunders

• Signed Kevin Millwood, SP, Baltimore; Released Brandon League, RP, Seattle [5/12]
• Released Millwood; Signed Dan Wheeler, RP, Tampa [5/13]

Stat line for Millwood's one start with the Toxic Sludges: 6 2/3 innings, 8 baserunners, 5 runs, 5 K's, and 3 home runs. But that doesn't even get to describe how bad the gopher balls were: Millwood gave up blasts to Mike Sweeney, who's playing on half a leg, M. Saunders, who I've never heard of, and Ichiro! They were wise to cut him afterwards in basically a lateral swap of crappy relievers, while only incurring a small penalty for a stupid pickup. (El Angelo)

This was a test of my theory that it is smart to play ANY SP against Seattle. Apparently there are limits to the theory. And, as is so often the case, those limits lie on the other side of Kevin Millwood. (Teddy)

Suck It, Silver

• Released Juan Gutierrez, RP, Arizona [5/16]

A reliever that has more earned runs allowed (16) than strikeouts (12) is not very good. (El Angelo)

Yes. (Teddy)

pastywhite tyrones

• Signed Jose Bautista, 3B, Toronto; Released Carlos Villanueva, RP, Milwaukee; Futzed around aimlessly with Tony Gwynn, Jr., OF, San Diego [5/12]
• Signed Jon Garland, SP, Arizona; Released Jeff Francouer, SP, New York (NL) [5/14]
• Signed Clay Hensley, SP, San Diego; Released Hideki Matsui, DH, Anaheim [5/17]
  

Releasing a bad Met, a bad ex-Yankee and a guy with no eyebrows generally makes for a good TA, and Jose Bautista appears to have stolen Aaron Hill's cream and clear, making him a solid pickup. I don't like the Garland acquisition though--innings eaters, while useful in the majors, are useless in the fantasy world. You're better off taking a stab with a high K middle reliever; Garland provides you absolutely no statistics you'd want. (El Angelo)

Every Padre pitcher is “overperforming” right now, which means we might need to re-evaluate that whole staff in light of the lack of offense in the NL West. Jon Garland’s not the future, but he’s far from the worst guy to have on your roster right now. (Teddy)

The Situation Room

• Signed Troy Glaus, 1B, Atlanta; Released Kila Ka'ihue, 1B, Kansas City [5/12]
• Signed Gaby Sanchez, 1B, Florida; Released Wilson Ramos, C, Minnesota [5/15]
• Released Glaus; Signed Luke Gregerson, RP, San Diego [5/17]

Even I can't defend the Glaus pickup. Gaby Sanchez is roughly what Ka'ihue was, a dice roll at a highly touted 1B prospect who's going to get some playing time. One out of every 5 becomes Kendry Morales. Sadly, the other 4 becom Alan Zinter. (El Angelo)

Except that Gaby is blocking the highly touted prospect (Logan Morrison), whereas Kila Ka'ihue at least theoretically IS the highly touted prospect. (Teddy)

Enrico Palazzo

• Signed David Ortiz, DH, Boston; Released Alcides Escobar, SS, Milwaukee [5/15]

I'm trying to think how you could swap players that are more different than these two. One is old, steroid-ridden, fat, slow, hits for a ton of power, has no defensive acumen, is one of the masters of the Three True Outcomes, and plays for the Sawx. The other is young, fast, short, skinny, can't hit for anything, is a defensive whiz, and plays for the Brewers. Does these guys have anything in common? (El Angelo)

They’ve both played in Wisconsin. Ortiz played for the A-ball Wisconsin Timber Rattlers (?) back in the day, and managed to pick up a corn/cheese-fed ‘Sconsin bride while there.

2010 Preakness Preview

Fact: while the Kentucky Derby is the most famous race in America that everyone wants to win, and the Belmont is the "Test of the Champion", the Triple Crown race most likely to produce a champion is the Preakness.

Really? Well, yes. 11 of the last 13 Preakness winners were later crowned 3yo colt of the year, and three of them (Charismatic in '99, Point Given in '01 and Curlin in '07) won Horse of the Year. By contrast, only 7 Derby and 3 Belmont winners won an Eclipse that year. One of the two exceptions was last year's winner, super filly Rachel Alexandra, who was ineligible to win the 3yo colts' Eclipse Award, but instead won the 3yo filly Eclipse and Horse of the Year. That leaves 2000 winner Red Bullet as the one real exception to the rule, who won in a crazy year where eventual champion Tiznow came from nowhere to win the Breeders Cup Classic.

Why has this been the case? Well, in this time span, 7 Preakness winners were also Derby winners, and 2 Preakness winners also won the Belmont. Win 2 Triple Crown races and you'd need something really goofy to happen to lose the Eclipse Award. But the other big reason is that of the three Triple Crown races, the Preakness most resembles a regular horse race. The Derby is a unique race: a 20-horse field, a 160,000 person crowd, a new distance for all the runners, and the presence of a slew of horses with little or no chance that can make it impossible for some contenders to win. (Just ask the connections of Ice Box.) The Belmont is run at a mile and a half on the dirt, a distance that horses are rarely bred for and will likely never run again, making it an anomaly in modern racing and producing quirky results. (Commendable? Da'Tara? Sarava?)

By contrast, the format of the Preakness is quite similar to most Grade 1 races. The field size is usually 8-11, and will never be larger than 14. The distance (9 1/2 furlongs) isn't too far and for many of these horses, is shorter than their previous race (the Derby) or only a little longer than a prior race. Traffic trouble is less of a problem because of the smaller field. And Pimlico generally plays pretty fair to front-runners and closers. In many respects, it's the "truest" of the Triple Crown races.

Which is why you rarely see a longshot win the Preakness. In this same 13-year span, we've seen only two horses win the race at odds over 5-1. One was Charismatic, who had just won the Derby at 31-1, and stupidly, most people thought he couldn't do it again. He won easily at 8-1. The other was Bernardini (2006), who was 13-1 partly because he only had 3 prior starts and partly because he was running against Barbaro, who was 1-2.

What this means is that the Preakness isn't the race to go bomb hunting unless there's a phenom you love or the public is ignoring the fave for some reason. Does either exception apply here? Let's count them down in reverse order of likelihood.

Watch Yourselves Out There, Kids

12. Northern Giant. D. Wayne Lukas is arguably the best trainer in this history of the Preakness with 5 wins. Sadly, the last one came in 1995, and he hasn't had a horse finish in the money since 2003. Given that this guy has zero wins on a dry dirt track, finished DAFL in the Arkansas Derby and is painfully slow, we think he's not going to get Lukas off the schneid.

11. Yawanna Twist. The highlight of his career to date has been non-threatening 2nds to Awesome Act and American Lion, two horses who lost the Derby by a combined 80 lengths. His next highlight will come when he wins the New York Derby at Finger Lakes Racetrack in July.

Good Horse in a Bad Spot

10. Schoolyard Dreams. Barely lost the Tampa Bay Derby 2 races back (beating Super Saver in the process, who hadn't run in 4 months), he was throttled in the Wood despite getting a perfect trip. He looks like a perfectly fine Grade 3 horse that can win a G1 or G2 if he catches a weak field and a bunch of things break his way. Neither applies here.

9. Dublin. This horse has zero wins beyond 7 furlongs in 6 tries, and hasn't improved his speed figures in about 9 months. The Preakness will make it 7 tries with no success. Why even bother with a route race? Why not aim for something like the Woody Stephens and King's Bishop?

The Derby Did Not Tell Us Much

8. Jackson Bend. Trainer Nick Zito didn't love that this guy was 12+ lengths out of it in the Derby and has vowed that he'll be closer to the pace in the Preakness. That's fine and good, but it doesn't change that this horse is winless in open company and doesn't appear to be fast enough to compete for the win slot and has zero acceleration. Look for him to menace near the lead on the far turn, and get passed by half the field in the stretch.

7. Paddy O'Prado. After we mocked this guy, he turned around and ran 3rd in the Derby. Guess what? We're still against. We've now got proof that he's good on turf, synthetics and slop, which is not uncommon. We still have no proof that this guy will be any good on a fast track, which is what he'll get on Saturday. Additionally, he was gasping for air at the end of the Derby and his jockey (Kent Desormeaux) has been fighting allegations that he gave up on the race late. He's a very likely candidate to be overbet (5-1?) and regress badly in the Preakness.

Newcomers for Exotic Purposes Only

6. Pleasant Prince. Lost by a nose to Derby runner-up Ice Box in the Florida Derby. In an effort to get enough winnings to make the Derby, lost horribly in the Blue Grass and ran a blase 3rd in the Derby Trial. He rates better than some because he has excuses for his last two losses--they were on synthetic and in the slop, respectively--but he's a stone closer in a race that lacks a ton of early speed. Has a shot to clunk up and his the superfecta at an OK price.

5. Aikenite. Todd Pletcher's "other" horse in the race, he's also a stone closer with a shot to clunk up at a price. We rank him slightly higher because we think he'll be a longer price than Pleasant Prince and like that he's coming in a little fresher. There's almost zero chance this guy could win (if he has a shot, would Pletcher be running him and ruining a Triple Crown bid?), but at 30-1, he's exactly the kind of horse you should throw in the bottom slot of your trifectas and supers.

4. First Dude. He's accomplished even less than Aikenite and Pleasant Prince, but he has tactical speed that the last two horses lack. He also has run three straight 9 furlong races which we like; we think he'll have a good foundation to get the distance (unlike, say, Yawanna Twist). And he's sporting a pair of bullet workouts. Could stick around and hit the board at a huge price.

Contenders

3. Super Saver. Has there ever been less enthusiasm over a Derby winner that wasn't an upset? Most of the discussion and accolades over the past two weeks has been over Calvin Borel, Todd Pletcher, and Ice Box (who many argue should have won). Almost nobody has been arguing that this horse is the next coming of Unbridled, let alone Affirmed, and while he'll probably be the favorite in the Preakness, it'll probably be a tempered 5-2/3-1 choice.

Those are tempting odds to take on a well-bred, well-connected horse that just won the Derby, but we don't love him here. We don't love Pletcher horses coming back in 2 weeks--we know few trainers do it these days, but Pletcher never runs a horse back that quickly, which is partially why he's had so few Preakness runners (none of which have done anything). We think there's no way he gets as good a trip here as he got in the Derby; in fact, that's going to be impossible, because his Derby trip was perfect. And we're wondering if he's just a Churchill Downs freak. He's 2-for-2 at Churchill and 1-for-5 elsewhere. It's a little reminiscent of 2007 winner Street Sense, who was a monster at Churchill and just very good elsewhere. And he got beat in the Preakness. We think he contends but ultimately loses.

2. Caracortado. The new shooter with a chance. For all the chatter about how horrible Lookin at Lucky's trip was in the Santa Anita Derby, few focused on this guy's horrible trip, which probably cost him 3rd place. He's a pretty honest runner with tactical speed, an underrated trainer, and breeding that looks obscure but is actually quite good--his sire was a high-priced , well-bred Storm Cat horse that had an early career ending injury, and his dam is out of Maria's Mon, who's the sire of Super Saver. Yes, he has no real dirt experience (his 4 furlong debut doesn't count) and his jockey is someone we don't know too well. But he'll probably be about 15-1 with a real chance to do some damage. We think he's a must-use not only in exotics but in multi-race wagers.

The Pick

1. Lookin at Lucky. Many want to argue that Ice Box was the best horse that didn't win the Derby, but we're pretty sure it's this guy. Pinched at the start and roughed up a furlong into the race, he was 20 lengths out of it early, which is not his game. He rallied belatedly and pretty well to only lose by 7 lengths on a day where he got no racing luck and was on a sloppy surface that he didn't love. Now he turns back slightly in distance, gets a new jockey (Garrett Gomez is one of the best in the business, but had no luck on this guy), and should get a much, much, much better trip in a smaller field that lacks a true speedball. More importantly, we think he's just the best horse in this class. And if we're going with the theory that the top horse of the class will win the Preakness, he's the most likely winner.

Playing the Race

We suspect that both Lookin at Lucky and Super Saver will be around 3-1, and if so, they and everyone else you like is worth a win bet, because tripling your money is nothing to sneeze at. If you like a longshot like Caracortado or First Dude, look to playing them in doubles or Pick Threes; their odds will be even longer in the multi-race wagers (and by contrast, LAL, SS and Paddy O'Prado will likely be shorter in those bets).

Good luck to all!

Transactions Analysis: Hindenburg Edition

[Ed. Note: As you’ll see, we got a little bit delayed in getting this one out. We ask for indulgence and a suspension of disbelief.]

May 5th is one of the more celebrated days of the year: Mexico celebrates Cinco de Mayo as a great day of freedom and independence, the United States celebrates the day as an excuse to drink mojitos by the quart, and Arizona celebrates the day by deporting all non-WASPs. Nary a person will be found in North America who doesn't love the day.

May 6th, by contrast, is much less well regarded. This is probably because the most notable thing to happen on the 6th is the Hindenburg crashing over Lakehurst, New Jersey. So in an effort to add something positive to an otherwise drab day, we've decided to run the next TA. It's also apropos because currently we have only two teams in the league with more than 80 points, meaning there are ten Baby Hindenburgs out there. Let's see how the disasters were created. (El Angelo)

Oh, the Huge Manatee! (Teddy)

The Little Green One

Signed: Bad Penny (SP, SF); Kelly Johnson (2B, ATL); Carlos Silva (God Save Us All, CHC); Brett Cecil (SP, TOR); Craig Kimbrel (RP, ATL); JJ Putz (RP, CHW)

Waived: Chris Tillman (SP, AAA); Matt Guerrier (RP, MIN); Edgar Renteria (SS, SF); Aaron Harang (Gopherballer, Gophertown); Alex Gordon (3B, AAA); Michael Wuertz (RP, OAK); Mark Buehrle (SP, CHW); David Ortiz (UTIL, BOS); Daisuke Matsuzaka (SP, BOS)

It's no surprise that Kelly Johnson is lighting it up because...well, because I drafted him too early last year and cut him 3 weeks ago. What's more surprising is that he's starting for a team that already has Chase Utley. Has a second baseman ever been a regular DH for a team in the league before? (El Angelo)

Not a good team, no. KJ was on pace to salt away the Pewter Parachute before June, though he’s hitting well enough now (and provides such a fun way to needle Ang) that I expect he’ll stick here. I believe that the new Parachute leader (either Joey Devine or Michael Wuertz) hasn’t even thrown a pitch this year, which might be a record.

On a more big-picture note, this appears to be a team that’s going for it this year. We see multiple interesting prospects and veteran bounce-back plays going out, with mostly short term, hot-streak plays (and KJ, who looks like the real deal) coming in. Game on. (Teddy)

The Spam Avengers

Signed: Alex Gonzalez (The Good One, Again) (SS, TOR); Andruw Jones (OF, CHW)

Waived: Kelly Johnson (Yes, Again); Nick Johnson (1B, NYY); Lastings Milledge (OF, PIT)

Jimmy Rollins appears to be this team's Personal Hindenburg, because since drafting him last year, they've (a) finished in 8th and are occupying 11th; (b) suffered through his shitty 2009 and now his injury-plagued 2010; and (c) traded after Stephen Drew and Justin Upton with the hope that Rollins would man the 6-slot. Shockingly, Alex Gonzalez appears to have found Aaron Hill's pharmacist and has turned into a power source out of nowhere. Which is good, because the erstwhile Nick Johnson is currently on pace for 50 hits and 200 walks and a pink slip. (El Angelo)

I still cannot figure out how this team could be in 11th. Most of their lineup looks great on paper, and they even hopped on the Andruw and AGonz bandwagons at good times. But as Ang notes, it’s their first-rounders who are killing them. Last year’s pick, Rollins, has struggled as detailed above, and this year’s pick, Grady Sizemore, is currently putting up a .583 OPS. Both picks made perfect sense at the time; these guys are just a little snakebit at the moment. (Teddy)

The Revenge Society

Signed: Kevin Gregggg (CL, TOR), Brandon Morrow (P, TOR), Jose Bautista (3B, TOR), Cliff Pennington (SS, OAK); Eric Young (2B, COL); Jim Thome (UTIL, MIN); J. Honny Perlata (IF, CLE); Jason Varitek (C, BOS); Brandon League (RP, SEA); Kosuke Fukudome (OF, CHC)

Waived: Luis Castillo (2B, NYM); JJ Hardy (SS, MIN), Dexter Fowler (OF, COL), Jason “Down Goes” Frasor (RP, TOR); Todd Helton (1B, COL); Jose Bautista (3B, TOR); Peralta; Varitek; League.

TRS has apparently decided to follow the blueprint of last year’s runner-up by sticking to wholesale transactions in Blue Jays. The only item of real note here is that TRS was the winner of the Kevin Gregg scramble, which bumped his bullpen from solid to ridiculous. Other than that, these moves are all at the margins, as befits the only team to have broken the 90-point barrier so far this season, and the only team to have sat above 80 points for any length of time. (Teddy)

Who would have thought that Toronto lay the key to deciphering a mixed-league fantasy league? Between this and Aaron Hill, we may have to start watching our neighbors to the north more carefully. Even though they suck. And yes, I'm baiting Corey here. (El Angelo)

Le Dupont Torkies

Signed: Cameron Maybin (OF, FLA); Many Corpses (RP, COL); Ross Ohlendorf (Ohlendorf, Ohlendorf); Andy LaRoche (3B, PIT); Brandon Wood (3B, LAA); Homer Bailey (SP, CIN); Jhoulys "Ugly, But Not As Ugly As Gustavo" Chacin (P, COL); Nick Johnson (DL, NYY); Aaron Harang (SP, CIN)

Waived: Brandon Morrow (P, TOR); Pat Neshek (RP, MIN); Delmon Young (OF, MIN); JC Romero (RP, PHI); Mark DeRosa (QB, Penn); Sean Rodriguez (2B/OF, TB); Maybin; Wood.

There’s actually not much to dispute here—lots of interesting players (Andy LaRoche and Aaron Harang in particular) in, and lots of uninteresting players (is there anyone less interesting than late-career Mark DeRosa?) out. But to me, the real item of interest is the sheer length of the transactions list. Over a roughly equivalent period last season (4/16 – 5/8), this franchise added 3 guys and waived 3. This year he has added 9 and waived 8. That’s a sign of a team paddling hard against the current in the early going. (Teddy)

I applaud my co-author for doing the math, because I'm certainly not up for it. I am curious to know whether or not we've had more transactions this early in the year as compared to normal. By my calculations, teams have picked up 163 players since April 1st, about 14 per team. Is that a lot or a little? I think a lot, but I could be wrong. (El Angelo)

Jeters Never Prosper

Signed: Joey Devine (RP, DL); Carlos Gomez (OF, MIL); Mike Cameron (DL, BOS); John Buck (C, TOR); Marlon Byrd (OF, CHC)

Waived: J.D. Drew (OF, BOS); Brad Ziegler (RP, OAK); Devine; Gomez

Having acquired and discarded nearly the entire Oakland bullpen (except for the actual closer), JNP switched its focus to shoring up an outfield currently reliant on Nyjer Morgan and the tattered husk of Nate McLouth. Tough to argue with the strategic focus there. With the team currently in 4^th and having an obvious place to look for an upgrade, these guys could be frisky going forward. (Teddy)

This team's dead last in runs and next-to-last in steals, meaning it may be time to get someone that steals a lot of bases and scores a lot of runs but has no power. Or just upgrade the outfield in general. Marlon Byrd, Morgan and McLouth is quite possibly the worst starting outfield for a contender since the '99 Mets. (El Angelo)

Wu Tang Financial

Signed: Rick Porcello (SP, DET); Howie Kendrick (2B, LAA)

Waived: Kevin Gregg (CL, TOR); Clint Barmes (MI, COL)

I suspect that we’ve all been there. You need to dump a guy to make room for a DL returnee, so you pick a random reliever and hope for the best. Then, probably the instant that your finger hits the mouse, the random reliever get bumped to closer.

Thus began the Great Kevin Gregg Scramble of Two Thousand Dickety-Ten (i.e. the Hindenburg Part Deux).

No doubt chastened by the experience, the owner retreated into a shell of squadoosh for most of the rest of the TA period, emerging only at the very end to grab a couple of youngsters with big reps and early struggles in Rick Porcello and Howie Kendrick. Better. Not better enough to get all the way over having punted 20 saves, but better. (Teddy)
.

The Gregg dropping is a fuck-up, but probably not one that will cost this team too much, partially because Matt Capps is doing his best Bobby Thigpen impersonation in Washington, and partially because Gregg sucks. What's actually killing this team, not surprisingly, is Javier Vazquez, who has a 9.78 ERA and 2.04 WHIP for these guys in 6 craptastic starts. Take him away and not only would they have a few more points, they'd be closer to the rest of the pack in ERA and WHIP. Clearly Jon hasn't been to New York in 6 months, because everyone here knew this was going to happen. (El Angelo)

Duck-Duck-Duck-Fuke

Signed: Brett Myers (P, HOU); Joel Pineiro (SP, LAA); Myers (again); Mitch Talbot (SP, CLE, apparently); Justin Smoak (oops); Carlos Zambrano (RP—yes, RP—CHC); Jose Lopez (2B/3B, SEA); Chris Snyder (C, ARI); Alfredo Simon (CL-du-jour, BAL); David Freese (3B, STL)

Waived: Myers; Homer Bailey (SP, CIN); Chris Davis (K, TEX); J.J. Putz (RP, CHW); James Loney (1B, LAD); Smoak ; Joel Pineiro (SP, LAA); Randy Wolf (SP, MIL)

DDDF won the other closer scramble of the period, grabbing temporary BAL closer Alfredo Simon. I also like the Chris Snyder pickup, as he may be in the process of Wally Pipp-ing Miguel Montero in ARI. I’m a little more dubious about the sheer quantity of potentially interesting arms heading out the door given DDDF’s problems in the SP-driven categories, though I guess that those very problems could also be seen as grounds for throwing the incumbent bums out and trying again. (Teddy)

True, but the roster still has Carpenter-Verlander-Nolasco up top, meaning you can be a little more callous with the Homer Baileys of the world. I actually like most of these pickups a lot, and the fact that this team is doing fairly well without Nelson Cruz and getting zero out of Nolasco says a lot. (El Angelo)

Gowanus Superfunders

Signed: Dana Eveland (SP, TOR); Alberto Callaspo (IF, KC); Hong-Chih Kuo (RP, LAD); Jason Vargas (SP, SEA); Tom Gorzelanny (SP, CHC); Ryan Theriot (SS, CHC); LaTroy Hawkins (RP, MIL) Wade LeBlanc (SP, SD); JD Drew (OF, BOS); Jon Garland (SP, SD); Theriot (again) Gorzelanny (again)

Waived: Theriot; Eveland; Kuo; Vargas; Gorzelanny; LeBlanc; Garland; Chris Ianetta (C, AAA); Jim Johnson (RP, AAA); Will Venable (OF, SD)

Hey, can you tell that I’m having to play matchups at one SP slot and both MI positions? The plates are currently all spinning nicely, though I can’t help but think that I’m about to be surrounded by a pile of broken crockery. (Teddy)

This is actually some impressive managing, because the team is in the money at the moment despite giving real at bats to the likes of Theriot, Callaspo and Will Venable. Scary to think what might happen when Brian Roberts comes back from the DL and Adam Jones returns from whatever vortex of sucktitude has eaten him. (El Angelo)

Suck It Silver

Signed: Juan Gutierrez (RP, ARI); Koji Uehara (RP, DL); Jeff Mathis (C, DL); Jose Contreras (SP, PHI)

Waived: Sean Marshall (P, CHC); Charlie Haeger (P, LAD)

A very calm hand on the tiller for the preseason favorites, who are off to an unexpectedly soft start. Some of the problems should solve themselves --it’s tough to be tops in ERA and WHIP while near the bottom in W and SV. Because ERA and WHIP are more stable stats, you’d expect the W/SV numbers to normalize upwards. But some problems are more troubling, specifically the possible re-Aaron Hill-ing of Aaron Hill. I think there’s still too much talent on hand here to panic, and the owner seems to agree. (Teddy)

That and there's nothing out there to pick up that is better than what he has. For example, the team clearly needs a shortstop better than Ian Desmond, but that's only coming via trade of a Greggg-style screw up. Corey seems to have taken Tucker's old strategy of a short hitting bench for a lot of pitching flyers in the hope that something sticks, only without the success that Senor Torkie had the last few years. But it's still May. (El Angelo)

The Situation Room

Signed: Mike Pelfrey (SP, NYM); Matt Guerrier (RP, MIN); Edward Mujica (RP, MIN); Scott Rolen (3B, TOR); Edward Mujica (P, SD); Wilson Ramos (C, MIN); Scott Linebrink (RP, CHW); Starlin Castro (SS, CHC)

Waived: Drew Stubbs (recent 1st-round MLB pick); Rick Porcello (recent 1st round MLB pick); Kyle Blanks (recent first-round pick?); Tim Wood (just a guy, FLA); Alexei Ramirez (see below); Mujica

Traded away: Jon Lester (SP, BOS) and Alcides Escobar (SS, MIL) to Enrico Palazzo; received in return Dan Uggla (2B, FLA); Alexei Ramirez (SS, CHW)

This transaction list started out as a go-for-it-now collection of prospect drops and category-specific acquisitions. But now there might be a little bit of doubt creeping in, as Starlin Castro is brought in and some other players are cautiously dangled in trade. Not sure what the plan is at this point, but will be curious to hear below.

I suppose that I also must break my silence on the trade. In brief, I don’t like it.

I understand the motivation—the team had plenty of SP depth and nothing in the MI, which meant that the marginal value of Dan Uggla on this particular roster might well be greater than the marginal value of Jon Lester. But that sort of calculation doesn’t come into play unless you’re absolutely sure that you’re going for it. If you’re thinking towards next year, you need to walk away with either the best player or the best contract. I think Lester is the best player here by far, and his contract (+1 for next year) is still reasonable. (Teddy)

Correction: Lester's +2 next year, and was certainly not getting kept by me, who already has 10 slots occupied with Kemp, Upton, Pujols, Felix and Price. That sentence also says why I'm open to making deals. It's tough to build for 3-years out in this league, because all your players get expensive at the same time, dammit. (El Angelo)

Enrico Palazzo

Signed: Jeff Francoeur (OF, NYM); Nate Robertson (SP, FLA); Sergio Santos (RP, CHW); Evan Meek (RP, PIT); Sergio Romo (RP, SF); Juan Uribe (IF, SF)

Waived: Adrian Beltre (3B, BOS); Brandon Lyons (RP, HOU); Scott Downs (RP, TOR); Nate Robertson (SP, FLA); Howie Kendrick (2B, LAA); Francoeur

Traded away: Uggla, Ramirez; received Lester, A. Escobar

Well, if I didn’t like the trade from Ang’s perspective, it stands to reason that I like it very much from EP’s. Not a ton of fireworks in the other transactions, but if you win one trade per TA, you’ll end up just fine. (Teddy)

Here's another guy that's clearly spending zero time in NY, because if he was, he'd know better than to pick up any Met outfielder. Speaking of which... (El Angelo)

pastywhite tyrones

Signed: Hideki Matsui (OF, LAA); Pudge Rodriguez (C, WAS); Doug Fister (SP, SEA); Ike Davis (1B, NYM); Ty Wigginton (IF, BAL); Tim Stauffer (P, SD); Miguel Olivo (C, COL); Marlon Byrd (OF, CHC); Carlos Villanueva (RP, MIL); Rod Barajas (C, NYM); Jeff Francoeur (OF, NYM)

Promoted: Wade Davis (SP, TB)

Waived: Chris Coghlan (OF, FLA); Olivo; Alfredo Aceves (RP, NYY); Scott Rolen (3B, TOR); Joe Saunders (SP, LAA); Carlos Zambrano (RP, CHC); Rodriguez; Byrd

I’d laugh at the wanton acquisition of Mets if I didn’t have a couple myself. That said, this transaction list is more a symbol of bad drafting luck (Coghlan and Saunders in particular) than anything else. (Teddy)

Let us look at all the Mets here: (1) Barajas, who somehow is 2nd in the NL in home runs; (2) Francouer, who's French; (3) Ike Davis, who I like but is probably the next Lyle Overbay; (4) Ty Wigginton, who was a Met for far too long; and (5) Pudge Rodriguez, who will be a Met one day if Omar has anything to say about it. This is to a roster that already has Jose Reyes and for an owner who frequently dreams about Esix Snead.

In short, we've saved the truest Hindenburg for last. (El Angelo)