Season Preview: The Gowanus Superfunders

On February 27, 2007, I emailed Teddy a Word document containing that 2007 season's inaugural TA, which we had been posting on the league's message board since 2004. A standard series of transactions were included, culminating with the line: "Hey Jim Duquette? Fuck you!" which I stand by today. The email I got in response from Teddy was life-altering:

What do you say to posting these things on a blog this season? We could fill in with whatever random sports stuff comes to us, but build it around this.

From there, a blog was born. (Random fact: our original name was going to be The Gowanus Record, but that was taken at the time.) Since then, we've used this vehicle to populate the interwebs with ruminations on soccer, horse racing, Massachusetts politics and yes, this fake league about real players. A great run it has been.

Three years and over 300 posts later, the blog has come back full circle by Senor Teddy, who's incorporating the blog's name into his 2010 fantasy team, The Gowanus Superfunders. While this was prompted by the fact that the Gowanus Canal has now been put on in the bulls eye by people like Erin Brokovich, I prefer to think that he's honoring the three years of blogging that have gotten us some posts on Deadspin and horrified sickos in Pakistan. So let's get down to brass tacks: will this be the first year since we started the blog that Teddy finishes with more than 78 points?

Infield

Perhaps I'm not the best person to speak about this infield because while it's talented and productive, it's full of guys I don't like. Ryan Howard is a veritable fantasy stud, but one from which I expect a decline because still he can't hit lefties and has been inordinately lucky in the health department (both his and his teammates, which gives him insane RBI numbers). Mark Reynolds may have redefined the Three True Outcomes theory last year by walking, striking out or homering in a whopping 343 trips to the plate, good for 52.4% of his plate appearances. We haven't seen a year like that since Rob Deer's 1991 campaign, where he went TTO 53.6% of the time. He's probably going to be a productive player again this year, especially at the abyss known as third base, but another 44 home run campaign is probably wishful thinking.

Beyond the corner boppers, things remain interesting but not to my liking. Napoli and Ianetta sound like a couple of guys I'd like to have Sunday dinner with at Bamonte's not guys to anchor the catcher's position. Brian Roberts has gone from 50 to 30 steals in two years, making him useful but not a stud. And Marco Scutaro went to Boston for defensive purposes. Overall, the infield is definitely above average but less strong than I initially thought.

Outfield

A stud and some finger-crossing. Ryan Braun is probably the best fantasy outfielder in baseball, so you get some leeway for the other spots, which is good because they'll probably need it. Carlos Gonzalez showed promise as a potential 20-20 guy for the Rox last year, but still has under 600 AB's and has trouble staying healthy. Adam Jones has Future Star written all over him, but again, can't stay healthy. Carlos Beltran would have been a top-10 pick had he been healthy and not on the Met Injury Vortex of Doom. If he returns in one piece in June, he's a big plus this year and/or a nice trade chit. The wildcard here is Ray rookie Sean Rodriguez, who may get squeezed out of time if Matt Joyce or Desmond Jennings light it up early. I like 2 of these 4 to pan out this year, making this a solid group.

Starting Pitching

After keeping exactly one starter (Ubaldo Jimenez), draft trades and machinations have yielded an intriguing rotation that includes Johan St. Johan, Cole Hamels, and Jake Peavy. There's a lot of issues there--Johan and Peavy were quite injured last year, Hamels' numbers went through the roof in '09 and Jimenez is still a Rockie last time I checked--but that's a lot of talent atop the rotation. Further making this a deep rotation are Cuban superstar Aroldis Chapman, known okay pitchers Dirty Sanchez and Ervin Santana, and injury wildcard Johnny Cueto. The variance on these guys is pretty high as we can see a case where this squad is out of DL spots in mid-May. But it's a high upside rotation that should produce a lot of strikeouts and W's. Which is good, because...

Relief Pitching

...this is the roster's gaping hole. Jon Papelbon needs no introduction, but after that it's quite dicey. With the tandem of Mike Gonzalez and Jim Johnson, the Cesspools have the two relievers tabbed to end games for the O's without actually retaining a good pitcher. Neftali Feliz is probably the 3rd most talented arm on the roster, but he's currently pitching the 8th inning for the Rangers in a bandbox. Brandon League is in a better situation--good park, good D, good team--but is also behind David Aardsma until he blows up. Have to think some of the starting pitching depth is going to be flipped for a closer before Father's Day.

Outlook

I probably should like this team more than I do, because it's well-constructed and deep in both pitching and offense. But Teddy's managed to acquire no fewer than 6 guys that were on my "stay away" list for this year. Given that I haven't finished above 4th since 2003, this is probably for Teddy's benefit. Still, I see this as a team that's slated to finish somewhere between 3rd and 6th without some improvements, and possibly worse if those pitching arms fall off.

Season Preview: The Spam Avengers

I end my portion of the season preview deathmarch by taking a look at The Span Avengers, a franchise that has thoughtfully retained the same name for the past several years. This enables me to remember who in fact owns the team, which, given my increasingly advanced age and BAC, is a boon.

TSA is a little tough to preview with our usual format, because the team he’s running out on Opening Day bears little resemblance to the one that will be out there for most of the season (or, at least so he hopes). So even though we’ve ignored the bench and DL for most of the previews, indulge us in a slightly deeper look here.

Infield

The team has two healthy anchors at present. One is C Victor Martinez, who has been penciled into the #3 slot on a good Boston team and should be set for a big year as a result. The other is 3B Ryan Zimmerman, who is actually a better player than VMart, but whose fantasy value is limited by the fact that most of his teammates should be utility guys for the Nippon Ham Fighters instead of starters in the bigs.

There’s more uncertainty in the MI. The Yankees appear to have installed Robinson Canoe in the #5 slot, meaning he should see an RBI spike. But Cano is also traditionally very BA-dependent, meaning he’s always a threat to put up another of his patented .240/.280/.500 first halves). At SS, Jimmy Rollins is officially in Who The Eff Knows territory.

Finally, the owner, in a turn of phrase that demonstrates why people pay him money to write, described his 1B platoon of Joey Votto and Lance Berkman as his “loony/brokedown combo.” I decline to attempt to improve on that. All in all, there’s a lot of upside here, but more risk than you usually see concentrated into one unit.

Outfield

Can’t argue with a Sizemore/Markakis top two. There’s currently a scramble for the last slot among SB-only man Julio Borbon and youngsters Travis Snider and Lastings Milledge, but with 3 guys on hand for 1 slot, the team should be OK. Much more stability here.

Rotation

A little tough to tell at the moment, with Cliff Lee and Erik Bedard hurt. On hand now is erstwhile stud and current solid citizen Roy Oswalt, ST question mark Clay Kershaw, and the post-surgical recovery 2005 All-Star team (Tim Hudson and Ben Sheets). Drop a healthy Cliff Lee in here and everything slots into place; until then the team looks like it’s trying to spin one too many fragile plates.

Bullpen

As of now, there’s only 1 reliable guy (Jose Valverde) and one human heart attack (Carlos Marmol) healthy. But as with the rotation, this group would look better with its injured leader (Huston Street) on hand.

Outlook

It is a little worrying to see so many high-profile guys on the DL to start the season. That said, as best we know right now, none of the injuries (bar Bedard) is serious, and it’s not like there’s an extra penalty for missing games in April instead of August. Assuming that this team is just getting its injuries out of the way early, they should contend for the board once everybody is back on hand. But if the injuries cause them to start in the hole, they might be forced to sell rather than risk getting caught all-in (or getting “Angeloed”, as it were). No team has a higher beta this year; we’ll all have to see together how it plays out.

Season Preview: Jeters Never Prosper

We opine a lot on names here, be it cursing out teams like M*ke, lauding governor lowercase for his general audacity, or shrugging our shoulders at The Spam Avengers. Jake has upped the ante a bit this year by naming his squad after its starting shortstop Derek Jeter. That's all fine and good...but he named his team Jeters Never Prosper. While this may be an anti-Yankee rant, which we're fine with, it also may be an Anti-Jake rant, which is somewhat nonsensical. After all, this team rode a superb 2009 draft to a 3rd place finish and had a nice keeper list. Is there reason to think that they won't be back in the money this year?

Infield

When Captain Jeter is your fourth or fifth best infielder, you've got a helluva squad. Beyond the team's namesake, this unit includes AL MVP Joe Mauer, NL slugger Prince Fielder, former MVP Justin Morneau, and solid citizen 2B Ian Kinsler. Even the backups are interesting: Billy Butler has no place to play in this lineup but is a fun sleeper for this year and Miguel Tejada is an underrated fantasy performer despite being 40 years old. Kinsler's hurt right now, but assuming he comes back in one piece, this is probably the best infield in the league.

Outfield

As great as the infield is, the outfield leaves a lot to be desired. Jason Kubel was a personal favorite of mine last year and is a pretty solid performer on a good team, but if he's your best outfielder, you need better outfielders. Juvenile Delinquent Drew and Nate McLouth both have tempting rate stats but are never healthy enough to play consistently and lack "big bopper" potential. And while Nyjer Morgan will steal a bunch of bases, he's unlikely to contribute much in the way of runs, doesn't walk, and in 206 games, has knocked in a whopping 53 runs. Generally it's fine to carry a Steals Guy, but when your other two outfielders contribute fewer than 50 home runs, it's a tough to punt 3-4 categories in an outfield slot.

Starting Pitching

This franchise has a lot of history of playing the Ace & Flyers formula, and this year is no exception. Yovanni Gallardo is a bonafide ace and Kevin Slowey is a good bounceback candidate. After that, we get the typical Jake Risk Pool. John Danks had a decent 2009 on the surface, but his HRs and walks went up appreciably and to me looks like a decline candidate. Justin Duchsherer and Edinson Volquez combined for 49 innings last year and cannot be considered reliable. Kevin Correia is just A Guy. And then we have the Cum Dempster, about whom we've written more than enough.

Relief Pitching

In most areas of fantasy (and real) baseball you'd prefer quality over quantity, but relief pitching may be the exception. In any event, it's certainly the modus operandi for the Captains, who have multiple closers that are squarely in the "meh" category. Brian Wilson inspires fear and awe in zero people, but has a firm hold on the Giants job. K-Rod is about a year from falling off a cliff, but should get 30 saves for my putrid Mets. And while none of the quartet of the firm Adams Morales Ziegler & Dotel, PLLC, looks to be a star, they should combine for another 30-50 saves. Combined, this looks like 90-100 saves, which would be good enough for 5th place in the league last year. Can't complain too much.

Outlook

As strong as the Mauer-Morneau-Fielder-Kinsler quartet is, the outfield and starting pitching are shaky enough to put this team tier behind the league's best. That said, those are the two positions where every year we see surprises emerge and plenty of talent available for trade. If this team can snag another bat in the outfield and another good starter sometime before the All-Star Break and avoid the injury bug, they'll compete for a spot in the money.

Season Preview: Suck It Silver

Last year, the SISsies hit the board while driving the final nail in the coffin of BP's PECOTA projection system (which, oddly, we recently learned was actually NOT managed by Nate Silver last season. So, sorry about the team name, Nate).

They also engaged in an occasionally bewildering series of trades, which had the effect of setting them up nicely for this year's draft. So, good team last year, good draft position this year...sounds like a threat to move up that last notch this year. Let's see what we've got.

Infield

How you feel about this squad depends a lot on how you feel about Aaron Hill. He went absolutely crazy at 2B last year, putting up a 103/36/108 that gave the team a massive advantage over all non-Utley squads in the league (perhaps not coincidentally, the Utley squad was the only one to finish ahead of them last year). But those power numbers are so far beyond Hill's career norms--more than double his previous career high in the case of HRs--that it's tough to think they'll happen again. Hill should still be a nice starter, but color us doubtful that he'll shred the league again quite so thoroughly.

The rest of the IF consists of solid citizens Kevin Youkilis, Derek Lee, and Brian McCann, along with last year's rookie sensation Yunel Escobar. So if Hill does come through again, this should be one of the better IFs in the league. If not, they'll be closer to solid than spectacular.

Outfield

This is a group whose whole is more than the sum of its parts. Adam Lind provides crazy power, Carl Crawford and Rajai Davis crazy speed, and Bobby Abreu crazy OBP. None of those guys will score in all five categories, but they provide several ways to mix-and-match to give the team an additional boost in whatever category in needs. Useful.

A brief note of warning on the offense, though--the bench of Martin Prado and Ian Desmond is massively underwhelming. So if anybody gets hurt, things could get ugly with a relative quickness.

Rotation

Can't do much better than Roy Halladay at the top. Even his move to Citizens' Bank Bandbox doesn't worry us, because the league switch and comp drop from the A.L. East more than balances things out. Josh Johnson is also a solid #2, though the recent injury histories of young pitchers in Florida has to give some pause. After that, things get squishier. I actually like Hiroki Kuroda a lot, though he too has a troubling injury history. Wait, so does Scott Kazmir. Huh. As demonstrated by my own rotation, I don't mind the strategy of targeting SPs coming off of injuries, because people will sometimes shy away from them more than is warranted. But this might be pushing things a little far.

Finally, though this is more of a TA note, Mat Latos was a nice snag.

Bullpen

Extensive. There are a couple of great closers from last year, Andrew Bailey and David Aardsma. I am bearish on Aardsma's rate stats for this year, because he got amazingly lucky in terms of his XBH/FB ratio. But there's not really an obvious guy there to edge him out, so he should still throw off saves. The rest of the pen are all save roulette veterans, and should help keep the team's rate stats in shape.

All in all, I think this staff will be competitive in the rate stats, though I fear that they might lack a little bit of oomph in the W and K categories.

Outlook

These guys won't be sneaking up on anybody after last year's money finish, which might affect their ability to wheel and deal in-season. But they've got enough on hand right now to make things interesting. A solid squad, and like The Revenge Squad, a team that starts with just a half-notch advantage over the rest of the league. Good health will be key, though, because there just isn't any depth to speak of.

Season Preview: The Situation Room

No doubt my esteemed co-author intends for his team name to refer to Jersey Shore cast member and GTL all-star The Situation (though given The Situation’s apparent batting average of about .004, query whether it’s wise to invoke him here).

For me, however, the phrase “the situation” serves not as a reference to a greasy orange man, but as cue to launch into the appropriate verse of “It Takes Two” by Rob Base ("The situation/that the Base is in…") Accordingly, I will use the Rev. Dr. Base’s timeless lyrics as the launching point for the analysis of Ang’s squad.
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Infield

I stand alone don’t need anyone/Cuz I’m Rob, just came to have fun

While it might seem simplistic to characterize this part of the roster as just Albert Pujols and a bunch of guys...this part of the roster is just Albert Pujols and a bunch of guys. Poor Kelly Johnson has been libeled enough around here, so I won’t pile on; Wily Aybar is an Aybar, with all that implies; and Gordon Beckham, though promising, scares me given the recent performance of highly touted 3B prospects (remember Andy LaRoche? Andy Marte? Edwin Encarnacion? Alex Gordon? Yeah.)

I actually like Ryan Doumit as a sneaky good C, though with his injury history, expect to see Dionner Navarro on board at some point.

Outfield
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I’m not internationally known/But I’m known to rock the microphone

Youth is served in the OF, with potential five-category monsters Matt Kemp, Justin Upton, and Jay Bruce on hand, along with power specialist Kyle Blanks and speedster Michael Bourn. Those five guys should create a rotation that will carry the team through most of the year, and even gives them a little cushion to deal for IF help down the road. Excellent group.

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Rotation
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It takes two to make a thing go right/It takes two to make it out of sight

Felix Hernandez and Jon Lester give this team two durable, high-K guys atop the order. And as a bonus, both should play on pretty good teams this year, meaning they should rack up W's as well.

After that, things get a touch lottery ticket-y for my taste. Rick Porcello had a great ’09, but threw a bunch of innings and outperformed his peripherals. David Price didn’t quite show his ’08 postseason form in ’09. Scott Baker and Jason Hammel are fine, but feel more like fantasy # 5 guys then anything else. And Ross Ohlendorf is (presumably) still Ross Ohlendorf. So there’s a very solid foundation here, but the sitch is going to have to either get lucky or go out and trade for some certainty in order to get his rotation all the way there.

Bullpen

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Don't cheer me, just hear me out

I bow to no one in my admiration of Dan Bard. I’ll even go so far as to say that he’ll get s sneaky big number of vulture wins this year operating as the fireman out of the Boston ‘pen. But he’s not a closer. Ditto for Joba “I’m so ugly I gave my Dad polio” Chamberlain.

I do, however, bow to any number of people in my admiration of Tyler Clippard. I’ll even go so far as to say that he will get almost NO wins operating as the fireman for a calamitous NatsTown squad. And that’s it. That’s the whole ‘pen.

Now, as promised, although I won’t cheer my co-author, I will hear him out. Saves do come into the league, and he should be able to buy saves late if he thinks he has a shot at the board. But starting from a dead stop is tough.

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Outlook
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Don't need friends that act like foes

True enough. So I’ll stop here.

This space for rent

Season Preview: The Little Green One

Next up is our commish's team, and we're taking a different tact in previewing his team. As long-time league members know, Andy is the kiss of death. Literally. In our inaugural draft, he was ridiculed by all for taking Daryl Kile in the 4th round, and we were all proven right by Kile dropping dead 3 months later. Fast forward to 2009, and the Curse of Andy hits again, as his top prospect, Nick Adenhart, is felled by a drunk driver just before the season starts. In the years between these passings, pitcher Josh Hancock also loses his life to drunk driving, this time at his own hand. We only include this because Hancock played for the Cardinals, the Commish's favorite team. For those of you counting, that's two players on his fantasy team and two players on his real team (Kile counts for both) that have croaked since we've started this league. The rest of the league combined has lost zero, unless you subscribed to the theory that all Mets are in the Lost time-vortex. Uncoincidentally, this team has never finished in the money, much like Wu Tang Financial and pastywhite tyrone.

Clearly, the key thing that's keeping the Commish from landing in the money is keeping his team healthy. And by healthy we don't even mean off the disabled list, we mean off the coroner's table. But this franchise and owner appear to be cursed. So to really know how well the Miniature Kermits are going to fare in 2010, let's look at the opening day roster as 27 candidates for an Uber-Dead Pool, where we calculate which players have the best odds of winning this year's Who's Gonna Die On Andy's Team contest. When applicable, we'll note whether or not the guy can actually play baseball.

Only By Random Chance

Elvis Andrus, Ted Lilly, Aaron Harang, Gavin Floyd, James Shields, Brett Gardner, Chris Tillman: 100-1. Young and healthy enough by all accounts. Also about as innocuous as you can get for baseball players.

Matt Holliday, Mark Texieria, Evan Longoria, John Lackey: 80-1. More famous than the above entry, but still no reason to think they'd be felled any time soon.

Mark Buerhle: 75-1. This guy's a workhorse and may actually be invincible.

Chris Carter, Logan Morrison: 70-1. Prospects two years in a row? Highly unlikely.

Environmental Factors

Conor Jackson, Ian Kennedy: 50-1. Slightly better odds because they play near a retirement community, and you never know when an old fart will mix up the brake and accelerator pedals while they're drinking on the sidewalk in Paradise Valley.

Denard Span, Matt Guerrier: 40-1. The Twins now play outdoor baseball in April and October, and possibly November. Frostbite and hypothermia are in play.

Chase Utley: 30-1. Always a chance a deranged Met fan goes postal.

Mariano Rivera: 25-1. Be careful around his pool.

Ryan Rowland-Smith: 20-1. Aussies are cantankerous, fun-loving and risk takers. This guy, in addition to being a middling starting pitcher, is an avid surfer and his sister Rhiannon is a professional surfer. Good sleeper pick to drown tragically.

Geovany Soto: 18-1. Puerto Rican with an Italian name. In the 50's, that would have gotten you killed, or at least been the subject of an overproduced musical.

Uh-Oh

Bobby Jenks: 8-1. Fat and trying to get thinner. Ephedra?

Brett Myers: 5-1. Already a noted brawler, has the potential to die in a fist fight at a bar or at the hands of a scorned lover.

Manny Ramirez, David Ortiz: 4-1. The amount of drugs, alcohol and other ilicit substances these two have injected into themselves either means that they're preserved like a corpse or about to keel over with one more shot.

Daisuke Matsuzaka: 5-2. Half of Boston already wishes he were dead, and let's not put it past Murphy O'Sullivan to make it happen. I assume that Bill Simmons represents the average Boston fan, and his vitriol is such that you assume the drunken guys would stop at nothing to give Clay Buchholz a clear shot at the rotation. At let's not rule out Tim Wakefield taking a potshot at him when he least expects it. Here's the morning line favorite.

Conclusion

The squad is due for some luck, which we take to mean that nobody will croak between now and October 1st. We predict another bottom of the league finish and no funerals before Columbus Day.

Season Preview: The Revenge Society

It has come to our attention that some of our loyal readers have been disappointed with the hedge-y tone of the season previews to date. These readers long for the more definitive claims of yesteryear, when we used to make statements like "the ‘next year’ in ‘Wait 'til next year’ has come early for this franchise” or “the starting pitching is nothing shy of brutal at the moment”, or even simply “I’m sorry.”

We don’t disagree, exactly. It’s just that to us, the league looks as bunched up going into this year as we can ever remember it. Nobody is punting this year by running out a AAA squad, nobody made 3-4 consecutive terrible draft picks, and last year’s champs had to sell off half their team because of keeper concerns, thus spreading the wealth. We’ll end up taking firmer stances in our predictions piece. But rest assured that the relative kindliness of these previews is down to our actual opinions and not mannerliness.

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With that out of the way, let’s take a look at The Revenge Society. The owner has set the bar pretty high with that name, implying as it does a return to the glory of his early years in the league. Let’s see whether he’s all talk.

Infield

You can sort of see the duct tape marks around this part of the squad. With the exception of #1 overall pick and show pony Alex Rodriguez, exactly zero of these guys have had two consecutive good seasons. Jorge Posada spent a chunk of last year injured, and at his age may be nearing the dreaded deepwater of the Varitek Trench. Ian Stewart is a nice eligibility-dodge 2B with pop, though you have to question a guy who puts up a .322 OBP as a Rockie. Speedy walk machine Everth Cabrera is sort of the inverse Stewart; condense their good and bad halves and you’d have the MI of Dustin Pedroia playing 2B next to SS Jackie Gutierrez . Lance Berkman will provide stability at 1B, though not until he gets healthy after offseason surgery. The team will rely on the fragile psyche of Joey Votto in the interim. Put it this way: while there are some interesting pieces here, we’d be surprised if a majority of this Opening Day IF is still out there by year’s end.

Outfield
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All over the place again, but in a better way. Jason Bay and Josh Hamilton provide the pop, while speedsters Andrew McCutcheon and Dex Fowler provide speed. Fowler could yet get caught up in a job share in COL, though McCutcheon looks like the real deal. While none of these guys are fantastic individually (at least not with Bay now playing his home games in Yellowstone Park), collectively they provide solid production in all 5 categories, which is all you can ask.

Rotation
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Hey, it’s every single good pitcher under the age of 27. Lincecum/Haren/Buchholz/Scherzer/Liriano (most of whom are still on cheap contracts) is about as well as you can do for a pitching staff in a keeper league. Because we can’t find anything mean to say, we’ll say nothing at all.

Bullpen

It looks like the team is going to go into Opening Day featuring FIVE closers (Cordero/Francisco/Wagner/Frasor/Lindstrom), which is something that only one other franchise can say. Moreover, most of those guys are good bets to put up respectable rate stats while amassing their saves. There is a fair amount of injury risk in there, but with five closers, it’s tough to argue that TRS should care all that much about the health of any individual guy. In the absolute worst case, the stocked ‘pen will provide a fertile source of trade bait once we get around the ASB.

Outlook

This is the first team we’ve done so far which has its strength on the pitching side. It’s often a good idea to zig when everyone else is zagging, because you can rack up points in less-defended categories. The roster as constructed isn’t going to be quite enough to win, but if a couple of the young guys on offense get off to quick starts, the team should be able to buy rather than sell, and compile a team that could hit the board. While just about all the animals are equal this year, these guys are slightly more equal than the four teams we’ve looked thus far.

Interlude

Folks might recall that I "cover" the Mariners over on Sons of Sam Horn. For those interested, check out Part 1 of my increasingly ridiculously long Seattle season preview. The preview is at post #5, so you might have to scroll a bit. When it happens, you'll know.

Season Preview: Wu Tang Financial

Up next are last year's sixth place finishers, Wu Tang Financial. Like the previously reviewed pastywhite tyrones, this squad has never finished in the money. In fact, its best finish was 2003, the team's first year in the league, when it finished a modest 5th place. Since then, they've failed to diversify their bonds and shit, and have never risen above 6th place. What does 2010 have in store for the Gravel Pits?

Infield

The infield has two obvious strengths--Tulo and Sandoval make a helluva left side of an infield--and obvious weaknesses--Jorge Cantu and Orlando Hudson have no business being on a fantasy roster. So let's focus on the big wildcard: Matt Wieters.

Coming into 2009, BP projected Matt Wieters to have a rookie season rivaling Uncle Mike Piazza's career apex and only get better. A year later, Wieters' rookie season was closer to Mackey Sasser than Johnny Bench, but was still a good first season. A step forward in an improved O's lineup is expected, and a .350/20HR/80/80 season would surprise nobody. That position edge would go a long way towards bringing this team into the money.

Outfield

Jasyon Werth is a breakout star, Hunter Pence defines third outfielder, and Josh Willingham defines fourth outfielder. Again, let's focus on the wildcard of this bunch: the Much Maligned B.J. Upton. Check out Upton's lines for the past three seasons:

2007.......386 OBP, 24 HR, 86 R, 82 RBI, 22 SB
2008.......383 OBP, 9 HR, 83 R, 67 RBI, 44 SB (in 60 attempts)
2009.......313 OBP, 11 HR, 79 R, 55 RBI, 42 SB

Cherry picking his top seasons in each category gets you a player that's as good as Matt Kemp. Cherry picking his shittiest season (which is pretty much a repeat of last year with fewer steals) gets you Scott Podsednik. So what's to expect this year? Who the hell knows? Nobody would be surprised to see him emerge as a top-5 outfielder, nobody would be surprised to see him dumped on another team for prospects after a frustrating May. It's not an exaggeration to say this team's fate rides on him.

Starting Pitching

You can't expect Zack Greinke to be as other-worldly as he was last year, but you can expect him and Josh Beckett to combine to produce roughly the same stats as Beckett enters a contract year. What's fun about this rotation are the wildcards. Javy Vazquez had a tremendous 2009 and now returns to the Bronx, where Yankee fans expect a 6.00 ERA and sabermetricians expect 20 wins. Brandon Webb could be anything off of surgery. And then there's super prospect Brian Matusz, who really could be anything on a frisky O's team. One of the better rotations in the league.

Relievers

We're wary of any bullpen that relies heavily on Rafael Soriano's trick arm, Kevin Greggg's hanging consonants, and Matt Capps' minimal ability. The Chris Perez snag was a smart one, but this looks like a bullpen that will see a lot of working the waiver wire.

Outlook

I hate to punt and say "who knows?", but this team is one of the tougher reads because it relies on a lot of lottery tickets. Upton, Webb, Wieters, Vazquez and Perez could all be top-75 fantasy players this year, and if so, this is one of the favorites. Given the inherent nature of injury risk and prior performance of Upton and Vazquez, however, we'll say that only 2/5 of these guys actually pan out and this team is relegated to a 6th place finish. For the third straight year.