Belmont Stakes Preview Part I: How the Belmont has Changed

Pundits everywhere discuss how the Derby has changes and rightly so. But the Belmont winners have had a similar if unnoticed transformation. Prior to 2000, you entered the Belmont either as part 3 of the TC series or as a young gun out of the Peter Pan, Belmont's prep race for those that weren't in the Derby or Preakness for whatever reason. If you didn't do one of those, you lost. And then 2000 came.

2000: Fusaichi Pegasus and Red Bullet wuss out on the Belmont, leaving Derby runner up Aptitude as a bad favorite. The race is won by the execrable Commendable, who ran 17th in the Derby and skipped the Preakness. Outside of his maiden win, it was Commendable's only win.

2001: Order is seemingly restored as Point Given dominates the Belmont even more easily than his Preakness win. Racing fans are still befuddled how this titan failed to show up in the Derby. Point Given wins the Haskell and Travers before being retired.

2002: Sarava, having won a race on the Preakness undercard, shocks the world by winning at 70-1. He never won again.

2003: Empire Maker skips the Preakness to freshen and easily wins the Belmont. He loses his only other start at 1-5 odds.

2004: Birdstone skips the Preakness to freshen and upsets the Belmont at 36-1. He wins the Travers but is destroyed in the Breeders Cup and retires.

2005: Afleet Alex romps as the favorite in his final career start. Much like Point Given, pundits are stumped as to how the duel Preakness-Belmont winner lost the Derby and was denied the Triple Crown.

2006: Jazil improves on his boring 4th place Derby finish to win after skipping the Preakness to freshen. It's his 2nd and final career win.

2007: Rags to Riches exits the Kentucky Oaks to win the Belmont off a 5-week break, defeating Curlin and Hard Spun, both of which ran in the prior 2 TC races. She runs once more and loses and was retired last winter.

So what trends can we glean?

1. The last two favorites to win were horses that flopped in the Derby and dominated the Preakness. Beyond this odd pattern, favorites don't win the Belmont.

2. Winning the Belmont is the kiss of death to your racing career. The last 7 Belmont winners have had a combined post-Belmont record of 3 wins in 17 races, all by Point Given and Birdstone. This may also be because...

3. The modern Belmont produces bizarre results. Between breeding for speed instead of stamina, lighter races schedules and jockeys unfamiliarity with how to ride the odd distance, we're getting results that have less to do with talent and more with breeding and jockey abilities. To find a Belmont winner, therefore, look less to current form and speed figures, and look more to whether the horse is bred for the distance, has an able jockey with experience at longer races (more common amongst jockeys who initially cut their teeth in Latin America) and a good trainer. With the exception of Afleet Alex (who simply towered over one of the worst Belmont fields ever--a maiden ran 3rd!), these characteristics are indicative of this century's winners.

Coming up next week: a look at why the last 10 Triple Crown attempts have failed, and our countdown as to who fits the bill this year.

The Quartercrack FAQ

The press is all in a tizzy over reports that Big Brown is "injured", in danger of missing the race, and in trouble because he's got a quartercrack. Let's calm down, avoid hyperbole, and take a few minutes to answer some key questions on this development.

What is a quartercrack?

It's a minor crack on the hoof of the horse. In terms of human injuries, it's somewhere between a hangnail and a bad foot blister.

Is it life threatening?

Absolutely not. Quartercracks are not uncommon and are wholly unrelated to lamintitis (what felled Barbaro and Secretariat). Again, it's like a foot blister--bandage it up and/or use that area a little less and it'll go away.

Is this a surprise?

1000% no. Big Brown missed significant training time last fall and winter with other hoof problems, none of which were life- or career-threatening, but all of which interrupt training. Many people thought that the quick spacing of races in the Triple Crown sequence may exacerbate his propensity for achy feet; this seems to have been right.

Does this alter his schedule at all?

If this were pretty much any other horse, odds are s/he would get a few weeks out to let the crack heal and point for a later race. But this is a Triple crown bid. He'll miss a few days or a week of training and be back to his usual routine by mid- to late-week.

Will this effect him in the Belmont?

Ah, the key question. His trainer Dick Dutrow insists it'll make no difference. The owners are saying the same thing and his vet is talking a big game. Still, it's worth looking at a pair of similar recent instances of favorites with hoof issues:

2003: Empire Maker is the 2-1 Derby favorite off two strong Grade I wins, including a measured win over Funny Cide in the Wood. In the week preceding the Derby, he develops a foot bruise, missed some training, and trainer Bobby Frankel deems him "fine". On the big day, Empire Maker runs 2nd in the Derby, barely beating the inferior Peace Rules and fails to threaten the winning Funny Cide. Was it the hoof? Maybe. 5 weeks later, Empire Maker, fully healed, returns in the Belmont and beats Funny Cide convincingly.

1996: The extremely talented Unbridled's Song enters the Derby as a stark favorite with myriad foot issues that cause him to miss training time. He runs fantastically for 9 furlongs, only to run out of steam by the eighth pole and finish fifth. While some would argue he was questionable at the distance anyway and trainer Jim Ryerson was in over his head, it's pretty clear he was not fully amped and able to win because of his feet.

So where does this leave Big Brown? While it doesn't improve his chances to have a minor injury, it's overstating its severity to say it makes winning impossible. Observe how much training he misses carefully, and not just jogging (like he did this morning). If he's not galloping 100% by the weekend, it's then time for the connections of Denis of Cork to get excited. In the meantime, here are our revised antepost odds:

Big Brown......1-1
Casino Drive......2-1
Denis of Cork......4-1
Tale of Ekati.......15-1
Anal Nakal..........20-1
Macho Again......50-1
Tomcito..............50-1
Ready's Echo......50-1
Ichabad Crane.....75-1
Behindatthebar....75-1
Spark Candle.........100-1

Transactions Analysis: Brooklyn Bridge Anniversary Edition

Yesterday, May 24th, was not only my wife's 30th birthday, but it also marked the 125th anniversary of the opening of arguably the greatest engineering feat in American history, the Brooklyn Bridge. To celebrate the momentous occasion, we're dedicating this Transactions Analysis to all things Brooklyn, undoubtedly New York's finest borough. I was going to call in David McCullough to write the TA, but he's knee-deep in researching, of all moronic things, a book about Americans in Paris. So instead, you're stuck with a pair of Brooklyn wise-asses, me, a former resident whose entire paternal family hails originally from either Flatbush or Williamsburg, and Sir Teddy, current denizen of Park Slope. Unlike McCullough, we at least know what OBP is and don't think that Billy Beane wrote Moneyball. (El Angelo)

I proposed to my wife on the Brooklyn Bridge, so I guess I have to try to step it up for this TA theme. Jesus, what were the odds back when we started these things that there would be two spousal references before the first Ryan Dempster joke? (Teddy)

Wu Tang Financial

• Signed Clint Barmes, MI, Colorado [5/14]
• Signed Hong Chih Kuo, RP, Los Angeles; Released Derek Lowe Face, SP, Los Angeles [5/18]

We start this week's edition with a player near and dear to my heart: The return of prized hunter Clint Barmes, who lost all usefulness after his tragic hunting accident in 2005. It appears that he's back to that exponentially high level he showed in early '05, what with a .375 OBP and .571 SLG? Well, not quite. He's at roughly his 98% PECOTA level, and he still hasn't learned how to take a walk, meaning those numbers are going to come crashing down at some point. Still, given his role here is just to replace Rafael Furcal during his injury time, it's a nice snag for the current leaders. (El Angelo)

Once more for posterity: in this league I once traded Barmes straight up for Mariano Rivera. I'm going to end up like Dan Duquette, who spends his half of his days mumbling on his porch about the time he traded Heathcliff Slocumb away to Seattle in return for Jason Varitek and Derek Lowe, and the other half feebly protesting that Theo Epstein gets too much credit for the Red Sox World Series titles.

Feebly Related Brooklyn Bridge Fact: Although credit for the supervision of the bridge's construction is often assigned to Washington Roebling, he was an invalid during much of the construction. During this period it is widely believed that his wife Emily was really running things. (Teddy)

Matsui's Fissure

• Signed Jesse Listch, SP, Toronto; Released Chad Qualls, RP, Houston [5/14]

I first thought this was former ROY winner Pat Listach, but research revealed otherwise. Since there's really nothing interesting or funny to say about these transactions, I'll instead give a shout-out to my favorite Brooklyn restaurant, the incomparable Bamonte's. It's been open for about 100 years, and they've yet to change waiters since their inception, and the veal is quite good. Yes, dinner can take about 2 1/2 hours there. That's part of the fun. If you're in the mood for baked clams, mussels marinara and cavatelli, it's where to go at about half the price of most places on the other end of the L train. (El Angelo)

It ain't classy unless it's got big ol' chandeliers, right Ang? I asked to make a substitution once at this restaurant and came within an inch of getting three fingers amputated at the table. (Teddy)

Feebly Related Brooklyn Bridge Fact: Bridge designer John Roebling lost several toes to an accident during the early days of the bridge's construction. The toes were initially crushed in the accident and later surgically amputated without anesthetic. Christ. (Teddy)

clemens the pederast

• Signed Mark DeRosa, Jack of all Trades, Quakers and Eric Hinske, 3B, Tampa; Released J.J. Hardy, SS, Milwaukee and Eugenio Valez, 2B, San Fran [5/14]

Not to pour it on the Healer...but the only guy on this list with real upside that could potentially help you is J.J. Hardy, and he's the guy you cut? I suppose I see the argument that he's the NL's answer to Bobby Crosby, but as Teddy will attest, Mark DeRosa is only good for Natty Lites. At least they came to their senses and rid themselves of Valez, who'd have trouble improving the Trenton Thunder. Though if they're in a quest for the top lottery pick, then perhaps they should have kept him. (El Angelo)

Eh, I don't mind the Hardy dump--his positive rep is based on 3 hot months in AA 3 years ago and 6 hot weeks in the bigs last year. More to the point, I cannot believe that 7 years after I picked him as a joke in the inaugural league draft, DeRosa is still hanging around on rosters. Does anyone still have Doug Glanville tucked away somewhere as well?

Feebly Related Brooklyn Bridge Fact: The weight of the Brooklyn-side bridge tower is equal to the weight of 181,818,000 empty Natty Light cans. All hail Google calculator. (Teddy)

Christmas Critters

• Waived Russ Springer, RP, St. Louis [5/13]
• Signed Scott Downs, RP, Toronto [5/16]

Fun fact about Russ Springer: he's the lone active player from the vaunted 1992 Jim Abbott deal, which sent Abbott to the Yankees in exchange for Springer, J.T. Snow and the immortal Jerry "Not Connie" Nielsen. If you had taken Springer as the last man standing from that deal at anytime prior to, I dunno, September 2006, you would have profited handsomely. Something tells me we won't be writing the same about Scott Downs in 2024, when he's back saddling horses in Louisville. (El Angelo)

Proposition: A retired (and presumably still one-armed) Jim Abbott is still superior to Russ Springer Spaniel. Discuss.

Feebly Related Brooklyn Bridge Fact: On the same day in 1901 that a runaway horse caused a panic on the Brooklyn Bridge, the New York Times reported that a Japanese Spaniel in Hoboken was murdered by a Saint Bernard which was jealous of the attention lavished on the spaniel by the dogs' joint owner. I am not making this up. (Teddy)

Frank the Tank

• Signed Ryan Ludwick, OF, St. Louis, Mike Mussina, SP, New York (AL) and Daniel Cabrera, SP, Baltimore; Released Matt Albers, RP, Baltimore and Edgar Renteria, SS, Detroit [5/14]
• Signed Jayson Werth, OF, Philly; Released Chad Gaudin, RP, Oakland [5/20]
• Signed Jose Contreras, SP, Chicago (AL); Released Colby Rasmus, OF, Memphis Redbirds [5/21]

There's some playing with the margins on the pitching staff here that's somewhat notable, but as the team's already sporting Haren-Beckett-Shields at the top of the rotation, this is a lot of searching just for K's and relatively harmless innings, along with crossing of the fingers that Greg Smith doesn't implode the second time around the league.

What's really notable is that our resident Cardinal guru has cut bait with Colby Rasmus, which speaks volumes as to either how much he's playing for win now or how badly Rasmus' stock has fallen in the minor leagues. (By contrast, if I were on the fringe of contention but had Fernando Martinez, I'd still hold on to him, out of fear of jinxing the already sucky Mets.) Curious to see if he gets picked up by someone else, because if the man who knows the team best doesn't want him, why should you? (El Angelo)

It's striking how few of the chosen prospects look like they'll make an impact this year (with the obvious exception of the lightning-struck Joey Votto), though I want to focus on another of the commish's moves. A brief word of praise for the signing of Baltimore's Daniel Cabrera is in order, as the big guy is a the very least on a nice run, and might have even finally turned the corner. With pitching upside in short supply at the moment, it's a nice move for the Bed Bath & Beyond-ers.

Feebly Related Brooklyn Bridge Fact: There is a Brooklyn in Baltimore as well, and it too is connected to the wider city by bridge, though the Baltimore version could politely be called the lesser known of the two Brooklyns. (Teddy)

54°40' or Fight!

• Traded Paul Konerko, 1B, Chicago (AL) to The Fighting Isaiahs for Micah Owings, SP, Arizona [5/19]
• Signed Aaron Laffey, SP, Cleveland; Waived Salomon Torres, RP, Milwaukee [5/19]

When you're competing for 2009, part of the exercise is to separate who will and won't help you for next year. Paul Konerko, while still useful, has about zero chance to be part of the next winning team from Chappaqua, hence dealing him for a pitcher with upside. I'm still fairly happy with the Aaron Laffey pickup, but can't fricking believe that Salomon Goddamn Torres became closer about an hour after I released him. Still, I can't see that lasting too long. He's bad. (El Angelo)

Micah Owings now becomes the second-best hitter on the roster; whether that speaks well for the trade or poorly for the team's last draft is left to the reader's sound judgment. (Teddy)

Feebly Related Brooklyn Bridge Fact: The bridge took some 13 years to build; by that clock, this franchise is well ahead of schedule. (Teddy)

Le Dupont Torkies

• Signed Mike Gonzalez, Broken RP, Atlanta; Released David Riske, Sucky RP, Cleveland [5/14]

Wow. If you take a peek back at our last TA, you'll note that Teddy chastised Sir Tucker for picking up Riske and I quibbled with the discarding of Gonzalez. It appears the 2006 champ is for some reason, listening to our sage wisdom. I think this has to be good news for the rest of the league, right? (El Angelo)

Those who can, do; those who can't, TA. (Teddy)

The Spam Avengers

• Signed Darrell Rasner, SP, New York (AL); Released Boof!, SP, Minnesota [5/20]

Rasner joins a fantasy rotation with Cliff Lee and Andrew Miller, giving the Spammers the monopoly on Stunningly Good Starting Pitchers. There's nothing wrong with losing Boof, and I guess there's nothing wrong with riding the Aaron Small of '08 train until the wheels come off or Joba Chamberlain officially hits the rotation. Though frankly, the way Kennedy and Hughes have pitched this year, Rasner may be the 3rd best starter for the Last Place Yankees. Man, it felt good to type that. (El Angelo)

I've expressed my opinion on premature Yankee burials in the past, so I'll let that slide. I guess a team could try to ride Rasner until the wheel come off, but he sure needs to be watched--there's nothing in his past performance to indicate that he can handle the stress of a permanent rotation slot.

Feebly Related Brooklyn Bridge Fact: Approximately 2/3 of the way through construction, it was realized that the steel cable used to hold the bridge up had been improperly manufactured. The cables had to be re-spun at great expense. Sound familiar, Cashman? (Teddy)

Decatur Commies

• Signed Billy Butler, OF, Kansas City; Released Manny Parra, RP, Milwaukee [5/13]
• Signed Masa Kobayashi, RP, Cleveland; Released Carlos Silva, SP, Seattle [5/15]

The damage line from the Carlos Silva Era: 10 innings, 12 earned runs, 21 baserunners, and a whopping 2 strikeouts. Not to say I told you so, but.... (El Angelo)

I officially have the Reverse Midas Touch with pitchers this year--whatever I touch turns to crap.

Feebly Related Brooklyn Bridge Fact: Carlos Silva should be hunted down with dogs and publicly flogged. Arguably this isn't even feebly related to the bridge, but I don't care. (Teddy)

It's Enrico Palazzo

• Signed Jake Westbrook, SP, Cleveland [5/14]
• Signed Milton Bradley, OF, Texas [5/16]

Keeping on the Springer theme of guys in Yankee trades, Jake Westbrook first became a Yankee along with Theodore Roosevelt Lilly in exchange for Fat Toad Irabu in '99, and was shipped off to Cleveland along with Ricky Ledee for David Justice in 2000. Personally, I find it amazing that Hideki was able to net 2 solid starters, albeit two guys that did nothing for the Yankees. However, it will no doubt warm the cockles of my co-author's heart to read that Westbrook first arrived on the 'Spos in exchange for....Mike Lansing!

In terms of relevancy to the Defending Champs, I presume he's only there to join John Smoltz and Jake Peavy on the DL, just so it's 3 guys with first names starting with "J". Because if he's a cog in the contending wheel, you're not repeating. (El Angelo)

The DL stash is an old and valued move in the league, so points to the champs for assembling what is undoubtedly the league's most impressive roster of broken people.

Feebly Related Brooklyn Bridge Fact: While it's not known how many people were DL'd as a result of the bridge's construction, 27 people shuffled off to the Thurman Munson Memorial Dead Zone as a result of construction injuries. (Teddy)

The Fighting Isaiahs

• Signed Joey Devine, RP, Oakland; Released Santiago Casilla, RP, Oakland [5/16]
  
• Trade Micah Owings, SP, Arizona to 54°40' or Fight! for Paul Konerko, 1B, Chicago (AL) [5/19]
  
• Released Devine and Barry Bonds, OF, California Penal League; Signed Edgar Rentablowjob, SS, Detroit and Randy Wolf, SP, San Diego [5/21]
• Released Wolf; Signed Armando Galarraga, SP, Detroit [5/22]
• Released Galarraga; Signed Salomon Torres, RP, Milwaukee [5/23]

This team now has on their roster David Ortiz, Paul Konerko, Todd Helton and Nick Swisher. How are they not in last in steals? (El Angelo)

Never mind that: Barry Bonds just got cut! I know he's not in the bigs anymore, but that's a big milestone--I think he's one of only a few Original First Rounders to get cut. Hey, that's a fun
idea for a column some time this summer--whatever happened to the OFRs. Anybody have a complete list of who was taken? Lemme know in the comments. (Teddy)

Great Moments in Betting History, Part 348

With under a minute to go in tonight's Celtics-Pistons conference championship game, the Pistons were inbounding the ball with a three-point lead. As the teams broke the huddle, the staff at the Undoubtedly Soon To Be Merged Financial Institution Garden tried to fire up the crowd by spinning the opening to Guns 'N' Roses timeless classic "Paradise City." Presumably, the song choice was intended to create an environment intimidating to the visiting Pistons, and coincidentally throw fear into the hearts of those in the betting community who had Detroit on the money line this evening.

However, any trepidation on the part of those bettors was undoubtedly quelled by the sight of Detroit forward Rasheed Wallace singing along to the G'n'R track as he took his position for the inbounds play. This was not the reaction of an intimidated player; indeed, 'Sheed went on to draw a foul and sink what was for all intents and purposes the game-clinching free throw. You'd have to think that the live line on betting futures on the game clicked to 1:1 on the Pistons at that point.

In any event, note to the Garden staff: Be Professional. Take the extra step and check the iPods of opposing players before making end-of-game musical selections. As a hint, we understand that Chancey Billups is deathly afraid of show tunes.

Non-Fans Guide to the Champions League Final

Tomorrow, the European soccer season will culminate in the Champions League final between English clubs Manchester United and Chelsea. The match will go off at around 2:30 p.m. east coast time, meaning that it provides the sort of mid-week working hour distraction that is so necessary for most workpod-bound drones out there in the corporate world. But in order to get the maximum possible distraction out of the event, you have to know the basics of what's at stake and who's playing.

Thus, as part of the GRBG's continuing quest to provide primers on sports that most Americans neither embrace nor understand, we humbly present the following viewing guide for those whose soccer experience petered out at the level of participation trophies and halftime orange wedges.

What The Hell Is The Champions League, Exactly?

The premier club soccer tournament in the world.

Most Americans only encounter soccer every 4 years, in the form of the World Cup, which like this summer's forthcoming European Championships, pits national teams against each other. But national team games and tournaments make up only about 10% of professional soccer matches. The rest take place in club leagues, for whom the Champions League is the ultimate goal. In brief, Champions League : World Cup :: NBA Finals : World Basketball Championships.

Each European country has its own system of leagues. The winner of each country's league is determined through the delightfully old-school method of having every team play every other team once at home, and once on the road. Best record wins the league--no playoffs. And for a long time, that's where matters ended.

But there soon arose barstool debates regarding which country's league champion was the best. This led to the 1955 creation of the European Cup tournament, in which the 1954 winners of the various leagues played a straight knockout tournament to decide the best of the best. This went a long way towards deciding things, and so there the matter rested for nearly 40 years.

Until, that is, money and game theory intervened. As with U.S. college football bowl games, European Cup entrants got additional revenue from participating in the Cup. As TV brought more and more money into the European Cup, more and more money was at stake for the clubs. This meant, among other things, that if a club won its domestic league, it was assured of a big injection of cash the next year. This in turn allowed the club to spend more money on players that offseason--which of course made it that much more likely to win the domestic league again the next year, continuing the cycle.

Domestic league winners had traditionally tended to come from a group of 2-5 clubs in from each country. But the bonus of European money meant that there was a chance that one team could keep plowing its European Cup money back into the team and essentially develop a dynasty back home. Because all of the top clubs in each country were afraid they'd end up on the short end of that particular stick, they all agreed to create a hedge by expanding the European tournament to include multiple clubs from each country. That way everybody (well, all of the traditional domestic winners, at least) would get a piece of the pie. Thus was born the current Champions League model, in which the top few finishers from each big domestic league (and the winners of the smaller leagues) play a year-long series of round robins. The survivors then play a knockout tournament akin to the old European Cup. The final of that tournament is tomorrow.

Who The Hell Is Playing?

Two English clubs, one of whom (Manchester United) is a traditional power, having won six of the past ten English league titles, and two European championships over the years, and the other of whom (Chelsea) is a club with a long but not particularly distinguished history, who have surged to prominence over the past 5 years since being purchased by a shady Russian oligarch. By way of analogy, think of a World Series matching the New York Yankees against a Pittsburgh Pirate team that had recently been sold to, and was now lavishly funded by, Donald Trump. Let's go to the tale of the tape:

Owners

Manchester United: Tampa Bay Bucs owner Malcom Glazer, possibly the most owner most hated by fans of his own club (who are not so keen on either his U.S. passport or his highly leveraged purchase of the club). May or may not be able to identify a soccer ball by sight.

Chelsea: Russian robber baron Roman Abramovich, possibly the owner most hated by fans of all clubs other than his own (who are not so keen on either his Russian passport or his Steinbrenniarian payroll, which has priced nearly every other English team out of the high-end talent market). May or may not be mob-connected.

Advantage Chelsea -- Russian mobsters beat Gulf coast Floridians every time, especially because the final will be played in Moscow.

Coaches

Man U: Sir Alex Ferguson, a legendarily feisty Scot known, among other things, for bouncing a soccer cleat off of David Beckham's elaborately coiffed skull during Beckham's tenure in Manchester. Widely reknowned as a motivator, and arguably the most successful manager in the world over the past two decades.

Chelsea: Avram Grant, a lumpy Israeli puppet installed by Abramovich following the departure of high-profile Portuguese coach Jose Mourinho. Widely panned by everyone, Chelsea fans included, though he has led his team to a pair of domestic runner-up finishes this year in the League and League Cup.

Advantage Man U -- Grant can't be as bad as his rep, but Ferguson has won everything there is to win in club football.

Key Player

Man U: Cristiano Ronaldo, who scored 31 goals in 38 games in the English league this year, despite not lining up as a true forward for much of the season. Ronaldo is supremely talented, but off-puttingly slick and a bit of a whiner on the field. The best analogy would be to Alex Rodriguez, except that Ronaldo has actually won a few things during his career.

Chelsea: While the English duo of midfielder Frank Lampard and defender John Terry are widely seen as the engines behind Chelsea, for our money Ivorian striker Didier Drogba is the key man for Chelsea tomorrow. Drogba is both stronger and faster than most strikers, and can provide the touch of unpredictability that an otherwise workmanlike Chelsea team can lack. However, despite his physical gifgts, Drogba is known for taking minutes, halves, games, and occasionally weeks off when the game fails to engage his attention. The clear analogy here is to Randy Moss, with the exception that Drogba has a better big-game rep.

Advantage Chelsea -- Ronaldo is the better player, but Drogba can be a force of nature when motivated. In a game that figures to be tightly played, he can break things open by himself.

Prediction: While Man U have the better side 1 through 11, we think that Drogba's individual brilliance and Abramovich's mob friends will combine to get Chelsea the win. Look for Drogba to draw an early penalty kick, and for Chelsea to hang on from there.

Wow

Five wins, 39+ lengths in front of the vanquished competition, and if Kent Desormeaux had tried in either the Derby or Preakness, that number could be closer to 50. This is one talented horse and one crappy group of 3 year olds he's beating. And now we go to Belmont for the Triple Crown. Here are the Gazette's morning line odds:

Big Brown............3-5
Casino Drive........4-1
Denis of Cork.......6-1
Tale of Ekati........8-1
Macho Again.......30-1
Icabad Crane......50-1
Anak Nakal.........50-1
Tomcito...............100-1

Coming up in the next fortnight or so, the three-part Belmont Stakes preview. Is Big Brown the next Seattle Slew, or the next Real Quiet?

2008 Preakness Preview: Dominance Repated?

The years on the calendar may change, but the Preakness storylines always stay the same. Every year after the Derby, we have a winner atop the 3-year-old class, followed by one of four reactions to his win and his chances to take the Triple Crown:

1. What the hell happened?!??!? This comes when you have a titanic upset in the Derby that takes pretty much everyone by surprise. Examples of this include Charismatic (1999), War Emblem (2002) and Giacomo (2005). Everyone thinks that the Triple Crown is a pipe dream. While Giacomo went on to do absolutely nothing for the rest of his career, it's notable that the other two managed to follow up their Derby upsets with Preakness wins, only to flop in the Belmont.

2. Yeah he won, but so what? This is the common reaction for a result that's an upset but not really that big an upset or a horse that was more professional than brilliant in winning the Derby. Recent examples are Real Quiet (1998) and Funny Cide (2003). Nobody's dismissing the Triple Crown after the win, but certainly nobody's thinking it's going to happen either. It's notable again that both of these horses, with considerably less hype than you'd think, won the Preakness with relative ease only to once again come up short in the Belmont.

3. Impressive. Do it again. Usually goes to a horse that looked quite good winning the Derby and was very pickable beforehand, but comes with the caveat that the racing public knows the challenge he's got ahead of him, often because of a looming nemesis still in contention who didn't fire his best shot on Derby day. This group includes Silver Charm (1997), Monarchos (2001), Smarty Jones (2004), and Street Sense (2007) . Nobody's sold on the Triple Crown, but everyone thinks that it's a possibility if they can put forward more similar efforts because clearly the talent is there. For what it's worth, only Silver Charm repeated in the Preakness, and he only did so because Touch Gold had a trip from hell.

4. We have the next Secretariat! Everyone's ready to anoint the Derby winner as the Triple Crown heir apparent because of a dominant win in Louisville. The recent examples of this are Fusaichi Pegasus (2000) and Barbaro (2006), and it goes without saying that Big Brown falls into this category as well. People are already pointing towards his potential Belmont matchup with Casino Drive as the next coming of Affirmed-Alydar while ignoring the fact that he has to win on Saturday at Pimlico. And it's worth noting that while the press had given FuPeg and Barbaro the Triple Crown after their scintillating Derby winners....both lost the Preakness.

I'm not going to pour on Barbaro's grave, except to note he would have had a helluva time beating Bernardini in the Preakness had he kept running, because Bernardini was an absolute freak and ran his eyeballs out in the Preakness. So let's instead focus on a not-bad comparison for Big Brown: Fusaichi Pegasus, who was dubbed Super Horse before and after the Derby. Check out some of the comments from the press and racing world in 2000:

BALTIMORE - Today's running of the Preakness is all about Fusaichi Pegasus. This may be as close to a one-horse race as you can get. (Boston Globe)

Beyer said if it wasn't the Preakness, he wouldn't have wagered on a race with such a strong favorite like Fusaichi Pegasus. But he felt inclined to get involved in the middle jewel, even though he can't bet against Fusaichi Pegasus. "Nobody is going to take a shot against him," Beyer says. "He is a justified 1-5 favorite. Picking someone in a win is a stretch." (ESPN.com)

BALTIMORE -- Trainer Bob Baffert, never more than a length away from a wisecrack, knows how Kentucky Derby winner Fusaichi Pegasus can lose the Preakness: Load him in the gate backward. "These other horses are going to have to run the race of their lives," said Baffert, who won the Derby and Preakness with Silver Charm (1997) and Real Quiet (1998). "This Derby winner is an extraordinary horse." (AP)

Come Preakness day, with the grounds a veritable pea soup from a rainstorm, the somewhat-heralded Red Bullet upset FuPeg, who would only win one more race in his brief career. And with rain in the forecast for Pimlico on Friday (and possibly Saturday), it begs the question: is there a Red Bullet in this field?

Without further ado, let's run down the contenders in this year's Preakness in the reverse order of their likelihood to win. While I do note that the horses I picked to finish 12th and 17th ran 1-2 in the Derby, let's ignore that and focus on my sterling pick of Curlin last year.

My Trainer Hates Me

13. Yankee Bravo. His best performance to date was an exceedingly slow win in the California Derby on a synthetic surface. Top off the fact he's slow as all hell with the fact he's not bred to get a mile, let alone the Preakness distance, and he's tough to endorse.

12. Riley Tucker. Stepped up enormously in his last race...over Polytrack. Taking that out of the equation, he's shown nothing on the dirt to indicate he belongs in a Grade 3 race, let alone the Preakness.

11. Kentucky Bear. His trainer's been hyping him to no end since his first start. He backed that up with a nice maiden win...and a scintillating 7th place finish in the Fountain of Youth behind a bunch of horses that have done nothing. And the two horses that ran in front of him in the Blue Grass came back to run 9th and 20th in the Derby. This is roughly the equivalent of DeShawn Stevenson's guarantee, only if it came against the Lakers. Next...

10. Icabad Crane. He's the only starter that's got a race over the track. As for his other merits, I'm going to be kind and say nothing, because there are none. More to the point, why would a jockey ride a horse named after The Legend of Sleepy Hollow? Wouldn't superstition keep you far far away from anything that would even reference your potential decapitation?

Longshots to Finish in the Exotics

9. Tres Borrachos. He's been beaten pretty soundly by both the aforementioned Yankee Bravo, who stinks, and Gayego, who's also in this race. There's the remote chance that he could get an easy lead and hang on for the show spot, but I think there's going to be a little more pace in this race than everyone else thinks.

8. Behindatthebar. He'll take a ton of action because of the Pletcher factor and because he won nicely in his last race, the Lexington over Polytrack. Problem is that he beat nobody of note in that race and looks to be a synthetic track fiend. There's also something a tad bizarre about the fact that Pletcher isn't going to his first call jockey, John Velazquez, here. Yes, his current jock (David Flores) isn't bad and rode him in all his victories, but you'd think if the trainer thought he had a real contender he'd do what he could to get him in the race. [Update: he's been scratched with a bruised hoof, and will point to the Belmont. --ElAngelo]

7. Giant Moon. Had trouble getting by Court Vision in his last race, who was up the track in the Derby. Tough to see how he'd improve here; the only benefit in his corner is that he's by Giant's Causeway, which is offset by his damsire being a sprinter. Looks like a great contender for the Mike Lee Stakes next month.

6. Hey Byrn. One of the three horses in this race to have a graded stakes win on the dirt (along with Gayego and Big Brown), his last meeting with Big Brown resulted in him getting trounced by 15 lengths. He rebounded somewhat to win the Holy Bull stakes at the Preakness distance, but he actually ran slower in that race than he did in his two earlier wins this year. He's going to be overbet because of his kinda-gaudy record, which is based on a couple of allowance races, and given his horrendous post (#13), he's a nice bet-against.

Exotic Hopefuls

5. Racecar Rhapsody. This horse's chances of winning should be somewhere around 50-1, as he really hasn't come that close in his last few starts against lesser company. However, he's a stone closer in a race with a fair amount of speed, and his breeding suggests he'll actually like the distance. He's a great filler for exactas, trifectas, and superfectas, and may actually help raise the prices a little bit.

4. Macho Again. One of the tougher reads in the field, as he fits speed-figure wise with Gayego off his last race, a scintillating win in the Derby Trial. Still, it's worth bearing in mind that he got an absolute dream trip in that race and now adds 3 furlongs in distance. There's a chance he's getting good at the right time. There's also a chance that he's just not that good--both starts in graded stakes races were absolute stinkbombs. Tough to leave out of triples, but also tough to love.

3. Stevil. Interesting sleeper horse. Zito's been touting this guy as one of his best all year, but the results haven't really shown on the track. His loss in the Blue Grass was a decent but not great Polytrack effort, but what stands out is his race prior to that, where he made a fair move in the Louisiana Derby, only to have horrendous traffic trouble. Top that off with some nice workouts since his last, and we may have a horse here with some upside. Not enough to catch Big Brown, but enough to consider a top-3 finish.

The Potential Upsetter

2. Gayego. More than once in the next 72 hours, you're going to hear comparisons between this horse and Louis Quatorze, who ran 16th in the 1996 Derby only to bounce back and win at Pimlico at 8-1 on Preakness day. That does provide some historical precedent from bouncing back from a bad Derby effort, but it's the exception, not the rule. Since Louis Q., the other horses that rebounded from Derby losses to win the Preakness were Point Given (5th in the Derby), Afleet Alex (3rd) and Curlin (3rd). Still, this horse is worth thinking about because he's shown the ability to pop at triple digit Gowanus Speed Figure, does have good tactical speed that might give him first run on Big Brown, and was taken out of all consideration in the Derby about 1/4 mile into the race. I'm still not wild about his breeding at this distance, but he's a lot more proven than the other 11 challengers in this race, and if Big Brown regresses enough, he's really the only plausible candidate to fill the Red Bullet role.

The Pick

1. Big Brown. Yeah, this is about as interesting as watching paint dry. But unless he trips up because of weather or his achy feet, or Gayego moves about 10 lengths forward, it's almost impossible to see how he's going to lose this race. I still don't think he's as super as everyone else does, but he's miles better than this execrable field. Sorry kids.

How to Play the Race

If you're at Pimlico on Saturday, between your Miller Lites, consider playing a Pick 3 or Pick 4 that ends in the Preakness, as you can either single Big Brown with confidence or take a stab at boxcar payoffs with Gayego or if you're really crazy, one of the other horses. If you're being more simple, I'd look to key BB and Gayego in the top 2 spots of triples and supefectas, and spread with some of the longer shots (Stevil, Racecar Rhapsody) underneath. Even with BB on top, it could still pay over $500 if the right horses come in.

Good luck to all!

[Update: 5/16, 10:31 am: Behindatthebar has been scratched with a bruised hoof. Annoying, as he was going to take a lot of money relative to his chances. Sigh. The guys at East Coast Bias are all over this race as well.]

The Five Stages of Being Awesome, by Manny Ramirez

1. With 1 out and runners on first and second, make improbable full stretch running catch:

2. Immediately following catch, leap over outfield wall in order to high five Red Sox fan attending game in Baltimore:



3. Remember the play is still live, throw ball into infield:



4. Double off runner at first base, ending inning:



5. Commence disco with teammate Jon Van Every, who has been called up that very day and now has a fantastic anecdote for his grandkids:



Awesome. It's the play of the year, and we're not even to Memorial Day yet.

How To Improve Racing's TV Coverage

As Deadspin's Media Approval Ratings are showing, to be a successful and well-regarded media personality, you should exhibit at least one of three qualities:

1. Be good at what you do. There's no substitute for extreme competency, especially when you're personable in the process. Examples: Ernie Johnson, Mike Breen, Vin Scully, Rob Neyer.

2. Be humorous. And in a good way, not in an über ironic or know-it-all fashion. Examples: Charles Barkley, Kenny Mayne.

3. Be attractive. There's nothing wrong with being pretty. Example: Erin Andrews.

Failing on those 3 qualities, most media members shoot for bland and useful. Which is ok, the world needs a lot of Rece Davises. It's when you venture into the land of trying to be not-bland and lack one if the aforementioned qualities that you run into trouble. Let's take a look at a fine exhibit of this...

...Hank Goldberg. The Hammer is the resident gambler on the WorldWide Leader, and as he's quick to point out, a protege of Jimmy the Greek. ESPN drags him out for football picks, but I'm more interested in looking at how they use him for horse racing. Goldberg is presented as gambling savant with great insights as to how to play the races and win bundles of money while being a resident curmudgeon in the process. Does this pass the test? No. In short:

1. Goldberg offers no insight on gambling, as he's not instructive to the novice viewer and instead announces his bets as if they're proclamations from Mount Olympus. The problem is that his wagers suck and are at best, predictably bad. Nobody has ever made money aping the Hammers' selections.

2. Hank not only isn't funny, he's downright surly and condescending. He's very similar to Billy Packer, whose popularity in the blogosphere is between Mitch Albom's and Buzz Bissinger's.

3. Hank is...well, not easy on the eyes.

Given that horse racing could stand to up its Q rating, you'd think they'd try to get someone else. Fear not, for I have the perfect replacement for Hank...



...meet the Beulah Twins!

Originally these ladies were tellers at Beulah Park, a minor racetrack in Ohio. One day, the track president noticed them working and the fact that they're kinda cute, and let them do the pre-race paddock show. Handle increased by over 50% as a result. Since then, they've appeared in Playboy magazine and have spiked the attention of thousands of geriatrics at Gulfstream. And the kicker: they actually know something about racing. They at a minimum pass the threshold of the attractiveness quotient and can speak smartly about racing? What's wrong with this?

So here's the solution where everyone wins: ship Hank back to the football both, where he can concentrate on giving his silly teaser bets to Berman & Co during NFL Countdown. And get these girls on the horn. Lord knows they would definitely be happy to get the hell out of exurban Columbus, Ohio.

Two Great Stallions Call It a Career

As reported by the Daily Racing Form, two of the most influential sires on both sides of the Atlantic are hanging up their breeding cleats. In Ireland, turf titan Sadler's Wells was retired because of declining fertility and the fact that he's 27, well into the twilight years of a horse. Coolmore Farm's management had nothing but positive comments on his career:

"I think Sadler's Wells is generally acknowledged as the best sire Europe has ever seen, and we feel very privileged to have been associated with him," said Coolmore manager Christy Grassick. "Despite his advancing years, he is still in remarkably good condition, and I hope he enjoys a long and happy retirement." (all quotes from the Daily Racing Form)

On this side of the pond, super sire Storm Cat was pensioned by Overbrook Farms, a huge loss to their bottom line since he went for between $300k and $500k a throw. What happened to him? They're not calling it declining fertility, but rather, the poor condition of his semen:

"We have been monitoring his semen quality throughout the breeding season, and there's been a decline in the quality of his semen," Waldman said.

Storm Cat will remain at Overbrook in Lexington for the remainder of his days.

"He's been a great asset to the farm, and it's been a privilege to be able to be associated with him," Waldman added.

Waldman said that Storm Cat is in good health for his age.

It's nice to hear that Storm Cat will still be around for tourists and the locals, despite shooting wads of insufficient quality. What's going to be tough is for Overbrook to calm the old hoss down; he's used to a large book of mares every year, and will probably not take turning into a Trappist monk lying down.

Transaction Analysis: Carcass-Picking Edition

Canada sucks. I know, I hear you. How could the land of poutine and above-average strip club buffets suck? Well, for one thing, it's the home of the Montreal Canadiens, who ruined parts of my childhood along with Bill Simmons's. But for our purposes here at the GRBG, the lion's share of the suckening is directly attributable to one man:

[Awesome image originally found here]

Yes, the last act in the four-year tectonic destruction of Eric Greg Gagne's shoulder, elbow and psyche has arrived, resulting in a wasted draft pick for me, and a volume of league transactions almost large enough to warrant a TA of their own. So come with us as the league picks clean the carcass of my embarrassingly early draft pick. You jackals. [Teddy]

Eric Gagne almost single-handedly propelled me to a pair of in the money finishes in 2002 and 2003, back when he didn't, well, suck. I'm happy to honor him in this way by looking at the litter of corpses strewn about our league. Because unlike fans of at least 4 teams, I still have fond memories of him. (El Angelo)

Wu Tang Financial

• Signed Brian Shouse, RP, MIL; Released Armando Galarraga, P, DET [5/13]
  

And off we go! WTF gets in on the Gagne implosion, signing Brian "The Brick" S"hit"house in an effort to get a piece of the future saves in Milwaukee. Pros: Actually got the first post-Gagne save for the Brewers. Cons: Is not good at baseball (lousy K rate; iffy K/BB rate; allows .851 OPSA to RHH). Estimated length of stay on roster: 3 weeks. (Teddy)

I'll take the under on that in a heartbeat. What I also don't get is how they managed to dump the only pitcher on the Tigers' staff with an ERA under 5 in Not Andres Galarraga. But between Shouse and Aquilino Lopez, this team's got a monopoly on Crappy Non-Closers. I dare him to pick up Aaron Heilman.

I'd also like to re-note what our Commish stated on our website that The Gravel Pits have hit the century mark on Mother's Day, which has been indicative thrice before of a losing effort in the league. I will temper that doomsday proposition with noting that all those teams did finish in the money in their respective years, but it's nice that we can cross of a team besides mine and Ironhead's for the win slot. (El Angelo)

Christmas Critters

• Released Bronson Arroyo, SP, Cincy [5/7]
• Signed Ryan Franklin and Russ Springer, RPs, St. Louis; Released Scott Downs, RP, Toronto and Mark Ellis, 2B, Oakland [5/10]
• Released Springer [5/13]
  

The Holiday Bedbugs made the somewhat defensible move of cutting ex-Sox Bronson Arroyo, only to have him pitch well against My Mets, so I don't expect him to linger on waivers for long. They then made the hedge move of picking up both prospective St. Louis closers, now that Jason Isringhausen has turned into a pumpkin for good. Not that this was a shocker: this was a man who blew a save and a game in the span of 58 seconds. Good riddance Jason, and don't forget your TB vaccination on the way out. (El Angelo)

An interesting approach here--rather than join the line forming to peck away at Gagne's eyes, the Critters chose to corner the deathwatch market in St. Louis. While it's never particularly heartening to find Ryan Franklin on your roster, the CC's are at least assured of a few weeks of save opps, until the Cardinals move on to the next plug. (Teddy)

clemens the pederast

• Signed Blake DeWitt, 3B, LAN; Released Jason Kugel, Noodle Pudding, MIN

I love a nice kugel. They go great with pork chops and shellfish. (Teddy)

And you're not even a MOTT or married to one, as evidenced by your choice of side dishes. Kugel does a tremendous job of getting the absolutely nasty residual taste of the gefiltefish, which absolutely annihilate all the upside of the seder-opening haroset and matzoh ball soup. Since we're already on the subject of seders and Blake DeWitt, I'm going to use this as an excuse to run a picture of a personal fave, Alicia Witt, who stellarly played D-girl Amy Safit, Christopher Moltosanti's cousin-in-law back in season two. (El Angelo)

The Fighting Isaiahs

• Signed Tim Redding, SP, Washington; Released Jason Giambi, 1B, New York (AL) [5/8]
• Released Redding; Activated Jair Jurrjens, SP, Atlanta from the prospect list [5/10]

Man, how bad have things gotten for Jason HGHiambi that he was cut for Tim Goddamn Redding, and the move was defensible? At least the Militant Point Guards realized that Tim Redding is a bad pitcher on a bad team, and got rid of him stat for a former minor leaguer who at least knows how to throw strikes. There's nothing depressing about an aging slugger being cut for a young flame thrower, but being tossed aside for Tim Redding really should make Jason reconsider staying on a major league roster. (El Angelo)

All this for the bargain price of $21,000,000 this season! There's a non-zero chance that Hank has him chopped up and thrown into some fresh cement at the new Stadium. (Teddy)

It's Enrico Palazzo

• Released Pat Neshek, RP, Minnesota [5/10]

For those keeping score at home, this is move #1 in Pat Neshek's effort to repeat the Pewter Parachute award. Keep it up Pat. The morning line contenders for your crown are Manny Acosta, Lastings Milledge and Jon Rauch. (El Angelo)

Alas, Neshek's elbow blowout means that his run at a second Pewter Parachute award (which is of course dedicated to the memory of that transactions titan and noted building remodeler, Corey Lidle) is over. Unless Ang and I get bored and just swap him back and forth all August. Which, knowing us, might happen. (Teddy)

Le Dupont Torkies

• Activated Joey Votto, 1B, Cincy from the prospect list; Released Ubaldo Jimenez, SP, Colorado [5/5]
• Signed Chris Ianetta, C, Colorado; Released Jake Westbrook, SP, Cleveland [5/7]
• Traded Votto to 54°40' or Fight! for Chad Billingsley, SP, Los Angeles [5/10]
• Signed Andy Sonnenstine, SP, TB; Released Mike Gonzalez, RP, ATL [5/12]
• Released Sonnenstine; Signed David Riske, RP, MIL [5/13]

In his later years the owner of the Torkies will sit by the fire, gather his 3 daughters and 8 granddaughters about him, and tell them of the long-ago time when he promoted a fat Italian first baseman off of his fantasy prospect list just in time to watch him hit 3 dingers in a game, then flipped him for a stud pitcher. And his family will smile beatifically, then up his medication dosage.

He will not, however, tell them about the time he signed David Riske as part of the scavenging operation surrounding the sinking of he HMS Gagne. Some things are too painful to relive. Fun facts: Riske's K rate is worse than Gagne's, and their K/BB rate are nearly identical. (Teddy)

The Billingsley move makes perfect sense for a team that's doing it by smoke and mirrors in the staff; they're somehow in 2nd place in the league without having anything resembling a real pitching staff, but Billingsley's a nice step towards actually looking like you're trying. I'm actually going a different mode of criticism: why the haste to dump Mike Gonzalez? Injured, he's doing you less damage than Riske will while pitching, and he's next in line to close for Atlanta. Was the roster spot for him that big a deal? (El Angelo)

54°40' or Fight!

• Signed Hong Chi-Kuo, RP, Los Angeles; Released Vernon Wells, OF, Toronto [5/8]
• Traded Chad Billingsley, SP, Los Angeles to Le Dupont Torkies for Joey Votto, 1B, Cincinnati [5/10]
• Released Kuo; Signed Guillermo Mota, RP, Milwaukee [5/11]
• Released Brandon Morrow, RP, SEA; Signed Salomon Torres, RP, MIL

Whenever you trade young pitching for young hitting, you tend to trade upside for certainty. Given the number of wild cards already on the roster, the fitty-fo-foties could use a little more certainty. With that in mind, I like the trade here.

And it's always nice to former have Pewter Parachute winner Guillermo Mota back in the mix. Plus, Mota actually has the best line of any of the Brewers usurpers so far this season, so he'll have the first crack at screwing things up in Milwaukee. I've no doubt he'll succeed eventually, but he might be flippable in the meantime. I assume Salomon Torres is only along for completeness's sake.

For those following at home, the league has now signed everything in the Milwaukee bullpen except Bernie Brewer and the guy who drives the bullpen cart. (Teddy)

The kicker is that Milwaukee stinks. It's one thing to pick through the bones of a good team's bullpen when the closer goes down, but the Brew Crew look like toast. Of course, that still probably makes them better than the Mets. Sigh. As for the deal, Chadsky summed it up about right in that I need some actual boppers instead of 8 lottery tickets in the staff. Given that Billingsley's already used up a year of keeperdom and Votto's a free play, it was an easy call. (El Angelo)

Frank the Tank

• Signed Kaz Matsui, Pig, Colorado; Released Paul Maholm, SP, Pittsburgh [5/9]
• Signed Vernon Wells, Broken OF, Toronto; Released Manny Corpas, RP, Colorado [5/11]

Exhibit A in why not to draft third-tier closers too early: Manny Corpas. For every Eric Gagne circa 2002, there are a dozen of these clowns. I hate every other player in this transaction list and won't even try to comment on their sorry asses. (El Angelo)

Toronto might well be out of it by the time Vernon Wells comes back, which means he's a good candidate to out up a a couple months of meaningless garbage time stats. Which, at least in the GRBG's world, makes this a nice pickup. (Teddy)

Presidential Timber

• Signed Erick Aybar, SS, Anaheim; Released Aaron Hill, 2B, Toronto [5/7]
• Signed Vincente Padilla, SP, Texas and Garrett Olson, SP, Baltimore; Released Billy Butler, OF, Kansas City and Randy Wolf, SP, San Diego [5/8]
• Signed Paul Bako, C, Cleveland; Released JR Towles, C, Houston [5/10]

I'm trying to find something inspirational, critical or funny about this. (El Angelo)

... (Teddy)

Matsui's Fissure

• Signed Manny Acosta, RP, Atlanta; Released Tony Pena, RP, Arizona [5/8]

You could have written "Manny Pena"/"Tony Acosta" and I would have had the same reaction: utter indifference. (El Angelo)

Are you kidding? This is the move that will make the difference between 8th place and 9th place! (Teddy)

No Means No, Mr. Kenny

We're loathe to pile on ESPN, as there are plenty of other blogs out there already dedicated to ESPN bashing, and most of which are better written than this one. That said, we would be doing a disservice to humanity if we failed to note the "interview" of Chris Mortensen by Brian Kenny that ran during the 6:00 P.M. eastern SportsCenter on Thursday. The interview concerned the report that former New England Patriots video assistant Matt Walsh has provided the NFL with additional videotapes of opponents' signals.

To us, the interview and evinces either a mindless determination by Kenny to continue hyping the story in the face of Mortensen's calm recitation of the facts, or a signal failure by an ESPN intern to brief Kenny on anything resembling the factual background of the story. Either way the interview looked like it killed whatever was left of Mortensen's respect for his employer.

Serious notes before we begin: What follows is a partial transcript of the interview. It includes everything but the last part of the last answer by Mortensen, which related to league rule changes and which we cut to save space. We have not otherwise altered the content of the transcript. However, as with any transcript, other listeners might have differently chosen to punctuate or add indications of emphasis or parenthetical clarifications.

It's lengthy, but hang in there. As an incentive, we'll do before and after shots of the increasingly beleaguered Mortensen. Here's the before, with Mort looking wary, but resolute:


Brian Kenny: We're joined now by our own Chris Mortensen. Mort, Commissioner Roger Gooddell had said that he could consider further punishment against the Patriots. These are [tapes of] different games, and there's film now of offensive and defensive signals--is this enough now to open it up?

Chris Mortensen: No. Not based on what we know from the letter of certification Matt Walsh's attorney sent the league. The tapes are now in the league's offices . . . league hands, being reviewed.

But we need to go back and maybe make sure chronologically that we understand that, number 1, the NFL always had information that this taping took place back through 2000. There's no new revelation there. And if you go back to the September 13th release when Belichick was penalized as well as the Patriots, you will see in there that it covers offensive and defensive signals.

So, therefore, unless Matt Walsh has some new testimony that he can corroborate outside of these tapes, there's no new information. And let's don't forget that Belichick admitted to the commissioner that he had been doing this since he'd been in New England.

BK: Going back to 2000, then?

CM: Absolutely, yeah. We reported it. We reported that first week of Spygate that Belichick had admitted that. So, that's not necessarily . . . that's not a new revelation.

BK: Mort, how will the teams that were taped--especially the Steelers, in a conference championship game--take all this?

CM: Well, again, when Commissioner Gooddell met with Arlen Specter, the senator from Pennsylvania, he briefed him on on what were in the notes in addition to the tapes they had, because the notes dated back to 2000, and in those notes, as Gooddell told Specter in their meeting, it included these Pittsburgh Steeler AFC Championship games in '01 and '04. The Boston Globe reported that on February 16th, and then Dan Rooney, the Pittsburgh Steeler's owner and chairman of their board released a statement saying 'there is nothing in the tapes of our coaching signals that would have an impact on the games, and it is no issue with us.'

So, so far I'd say all that damage control has been done.

BK: Walsh says he does not have the Rams 2002 Super Bowl walkthrough tape--that's a potential smoking gun that's been reported out there. Do you think it wasn't done, or that Walsh doesn't have a tape of it, because Walsh hasn't spoken to the commissioner yet.

CM: Well, let's also remember that the only report concerning the Rams' walkthrough, Matt Walsh was never named as the guy who allegedly videotaped it. And he's never said he's had it, and I think that's one thing commissioner Gooddell really wants to speak with [Walsh] about on Tuesday is, OK, even though you were identified, this thing lingered out there a couple of months, why didn't you clarify this, why did you let this thing linger?

And so, if Walsh has information, and he can identify another videotape assistant who videotaped that Rams walkthrough, that'd be one thing. But right now there's no evidence there is such a videotape.

BK: Mort, does this change anything though around the league as far as how Bill Belichick should be viewed, now that there's this hard evidence on precisely what they were doing and it's a pattern that goes back to 2000?

CM: Not around--it doesn't change the perception around the league; everyone knows Belichick's been doing--he admitted that he'd been doing it. [Remainder of answer cut for length.]

* * *

Gee whiz, Brian, you think maybe there's no story here? Christ. Did Belichick sleep with his wife as well? Kenny better hope that Buzz Bissinger doesn't get hold of this transcript, or he's likely to bite off Kenny's ear. In any event, somebody should put Mortensen on a suicide alert--here's the "after" shot:


We all feel you, Mort. Drinks on us next time you make it out Gowanus way.