Belmont Stakes Preview Part I: How the Belmont has Changed

Pundits everywhere discuss how the Derby has changes and rightly so. But the Belmont winners have had a similar if unnoticed transformation. Prior to 2000, you entered the Belmont either as part 3 of the TC series or as a young gun out of the Peter Pan, Belmont's prep race for those that weren't in the Derby or Preakness for whatever reason. If you didn't do one of those, you lost. And then 2000 came.

2000: Fusaichi Pegasus and Red Bullet wuss out on the Belmont, leaving Derby runner up Aptitude as a bad favorite. The race is won by the execrable Commendable, who ran 17th in the Derby and skipped the Preakness. Outside of his maiden win, it was Commendable's only win.

2001: Order is seemingly restored as Point Given dominates the Belmont even more easily than his Preakness win. Racing fans are still befuddled how this titan failed to show up in the Derby. Point Given wins the Haskell and Travers before being retired.

2002: Sarava, having won a race on the Preakness undercard, shocks the world by winning at 70-1. He never won again.

2003: Empire Maker skips the Preakness to freshen and easily wins the Belmont. He loses his only other start at 1-5 odds.

2004: Birdstone skips the Preakness to freshen and upsets the Belmont at 36-1. He wins the Travers but is destroyed in the Breeders Cup and retires.

2005: Afleet Alex romps as the favorite in his final career start. Much like Point Given, pundits are stumped as to how the duel Preakness-Belmont winner lost the Derby and was denied the Triple Crown.

2006: Jazil improves on his boring 4th place Derby finish to win after skipping the Preakness to freshen. It's his 2nd and final career win.

2007: Rags to Riches exits the Kentucky Oaks to win the Belmont off a 5-week break, defeating Curlin and Hard Spun, both of which ran in the prior 2 TC races. She runs once more and loses and was retired last winter.

So what trends can we glean?

1. The last two favorites to win were horses that flopped in the Derby and dominated the Preakness. Beyond this odd pattern, favorites don't win the Belmont.

2. Winning the Belmont is the kiss of death to your racing career. The last 7 Belmont winners have had a combined post-Belmont record of 3 wins in 17 races, all by Point Given and Birdstone. This may also be because...

3. The modern Belmont produces bizarre results. Between breeding for speed instead of stamina, lighter races schedules and jockeys unfamiliarity with how to ride the odd distance, we're getting results that have less to do with talent and more with breeding and jockey abilities. To find a Belmont winner, therefore, look less to current form and speed figures, and look more to whether the horse is bred for the distance, has an able jockey with experience at longer races (more common amongst jockeys who initially cut their teeth in Latin America) and a good trainer. With the exception of Afleet Alex (who simply towered over one of the worst Belmont fields ever--a maiden ran 3rd!), these characteristics are indicative of this century's winners.

Coming up next week: a look at why the last 10 Triple Crown attempts have failed, and our countdown as to who fits the bill this year.

The Quartercrack FAQ

The press is all in a tizzy over reports that Big Brown is "injured", in danger of missing the race, and in trouble because he's got a quartercrack. Let's calm down, avoid hyperbole, and take a few minutes to answer some key questions on this development.

What is a quartercrack?

It's a minor crack on the hoof of the horse. In terms of human injuries, it's somewhere between a hangnail and a bad foot blister.

Is it life threatening?

Absolutely not. Quartercracks are not uncommon and are wholly unrelated to lamintitis (what felled Barbaro and Secretariat). Again, it's like a foot blister--bandage it up and/or use that area a little less and it'll go away.

Is this a surprise?

1000% no. Big Brown missed significant training time last fall and winter with other hoof problems, none of which were life- or career-threatening, but all of which interrupt training. Many people thought that the quick spacing of races in the Triple Crown sequence may exacerbate his propensity for achy feet; this seems to have been right.

Does this alter his schedule at all?

If this were pretty much any other horse, odds are s/he would get a few weeks out to let the crack heal and point for a later race. But this is a Triple crown bid. He'll miss a few days or a week of training and be back to his usual routine by mid- to late-week.

Will this effect him in the Belmont?

Ah, the key question. His trainer Dick Dutrow insists it'll make no difference. The owners are saying the same thing and his vet is talking a big game. Still, it's worth looking at a pair of similar recent instances of favorites with hoof issues:

2003: Empire Maker is the 2-1 Derby favorite off two strong Grade I wins, including a measured win over Funny Cide in the Wood. In the week preceding the Derby, he develops a foot bruise, missed some training, and trainer Bobby Frankel deems him "fine". On the big day, Empire Maker runs 2nd in the Derby, barely beating the inferior Peace Rules and fails to threaten the winning Funny Cide. Was it the hoof? Maybe. 5 weeks later, Empire Maker, fully healed, returns in the Belmont and beats Funny Cide convincingly.

1996: The extremely talented Unbridled's Song enters the Derby as a stark favorite with myriad foot issues that cause him to miss training time. He runs fantastically for 9 furlongs, only to run out of steam by the eighth pole and finish fifth. While some would argue he was questionable at the distance anyway and trainer Jim Ryerson was in over his head, it's pretty clear he was not fully amped and able to win because of his feet.

So where does this leave Big Brown? While it doesn't improve his chances to have a minor injury, it's overstating its severity to say it makes winning impossible. Observe how much training he misses carefully, and not just jogging (like he did this morning). If he's not galloping 100% by the weekend, it's then time for the connections of Denis of Cork to get excited. In the meantime, here are our revised antepost odds:

Big Brown......1-1
Casino Drive......2-1
Denis of Cork......4-1
Tale of Ekati.......15-1
Anal Nakal..........20-1
Macho Again......50-1
Tomcito..............50-1
Ready's Echo......50-1
Ichabad Crane.....75-1
Behindatthebar....75-1
Spark Candle.........100-1

Transactions Analysis: Brooklyn Bridge Anniversary Edition

Yesterday, May 24th, was not only my wife's 30th birthday, but it also marked the 125th anniversary of the opening of arguably the greatest engineering feat in American history, the Brooklyn Bridge. To celebrate the momentous occasion, we're dedicating this Transactions Analysis to all things Brooklyn, undoubtedly New York's finest borough. I was going to call in David McCullough to write the TA, but he's knee-deep in researching, of all moronic things, a book about Americans in Paris. So instead, you're stuck with a pair of Brooklyn wise-asses, me, a former resident whose entire paternal family hails originally from either Flatbush or Williamsburg, and Sir Teddy, current denizen of Park Slope. Unlike McCullough, we at least know what OBP is and don't think that Billy Beane wrote Moneyball. (El Angelo)

I proposed to my wife on the Brooklyn Bridge, so I guess I have to try to step it up for this TA theme. Jesus, what were the odds back when we started these things that there would be two spousal references before the first Ryan Dempster joke? (Teddy)

Wu Tang Financial

• Signed Clint Barmes, MI, Colorado [5/14]
• Signed Hong Chih Kuo, RP, Los Angeles; Released Derek Lowe Face, SP, Los Angeles [5/18]

We start this week's edition with a player near and dear to my heart: The return of prized hunter Clint Barmes, who lost all usefulness after his tragic hunting accident in 2005. It appears that he's back to that exponentially high level he showed in early '05, what with a .375 OBP and .571 SLG? Well, not quite. He's at roughly his 98% PECOTA level, and he still hasn't learned how to take a walk, meaning those numbers are going to come crashing down at some point. Still, given his role here is just to replace Rafael Furcal during his injury time, it's a nice snag for the current leaders. (El Angelo)

Once more for posterity: in this league I once traded Barmes straight up for Mariano Rivera. I'm going to end up like Dan Duquette, who spends his half of his days mumbling on his porch about the time he traded Heathcliff Slocumb away to Seattle in return for Jason Varitek and Derek Lowe, and the other half feebly protesting that Theo Epstein gets too much credit for the Red Sox World Series titles.

Feebly Related Brooklyn Bridge Fact: Although credit for the supervision of the bridge's construction is often assigned to Washington Roebling, he was an invalid during much of the construction. During this period it is widely believed that his wife Emily was really running things. (Teddy)

Matsui's Fissure

• Signed Jesse Listch, SP, Toronto; Released Chad Qualls, RP, Houston [5/14]

I first thought this was former ROY winner Pat Listach, but research revealed otherwise. Since there's really nothing interesting or funny to say about these transactions, I'll instead give a shout-out to my favorite Brooklyn restaurant, the incomparable Bamonte's. It's been open for about 100 years, and they've yet to change waiters since their inception, and the veal is quite good. Yes, dinner can take about 2 1/2 hours there. That's part of the fun. If you're in the mood for baked clams, mussels marinara and cavatelli, it's where to go at about half the price of most places on the other end of the L train. (El Angelo)

It ain't classy unless it's got big ol' chandeliers, right Ang? I asked to make a substitution once at this restaurant and came within an inch of getting three fingers amputated at the table. (Teddy)

Feebly Related Brooklyn Bridge Fact: Bridge designer John Roebling lost several toes to an accident during the early days of the bridge's construction. The toes were initially crushed in the accident and later surgically amputated without anesthetic. Christ. (Teddy)

clemens the pederast

• Signed Mark DeRosa, Jack of all Trades, Quakers and Eric Hinske, 3B, Tampa; Released J.J. Hardy, SS, Milwaukee and Eugenio Valez, 2B, San Fran [5/14]

Not to pour it on the Healer...but the only guy on this list with real upside that could potentially help you is J.J. Hardy, and he's the guy you cut? I suppose I see the argument that he's the NL's answer to Bobby Crosby, but as Teddy will attest, Mark DeRosa is only good for Natty Lites. At least they came to their senses and rid themselves of Valez, who'd have trouble improving the Trenton Thunder. Though if they're in a quest for the top lottery pick, then perhaps they should have kept him. (El Angelo)

Eh, I don't mind the Hardy dump--his positive rep is based on 3 hot months in AA 3 years ago and 6 hot weeks in the bigs last year. More to the point, I cannot believe that 7 years after I picked him as a joke in the inaugural league draft, DeRosa is still hanging around on rosters. Does anyone still have Doug Glanville tucked away somewhere as well?

Feebly Related Brooklyn Bridge Fact: The weight of the Brooklyn-side bridge tower is equal to the weight of 181,818,000 empty Natty Light cans. All hail Google calculator. (Teddy)

Christmas Critters

• Waived Russ Springer, RP, St. Louis [5/13]
• Signed Scott Downs, RP, Toronto [5/16]

Fun fact about Russ Springer: he's the lone active player from the vaunted 1992 Jim Abbott deal, which sent Abbott to the Yankees in exchange for Springer, J.T. Snow and the immortal Jerry "Not Connie" Nielsen. If you had taken Springer as the last man standing from that deal at anytime prior to, I dunno, September 2006, you would have profited handsomely. Something tells me we won't be writing the same about Scott Downs in 2024, when he's back saddling horses in Louisville. (El Angelo)

Proposition: A retired (and presumably still one-armed) Jim Abbott is still superior to Russ Springer Spaniel. Discuss.

Feebly Related Brooklyn Bridge Fact: On the same day in 1901 that a runaway horse caused a panic on the Brooklyn Bridge, the New York Times reported that a Japanese Spaniel in Hoboken was murdered by a Saint Bernard which was jealous of the attention lavished on the spaniel by the dogs' joint owner. I am not making this up. (Teddy)

Frank the Tank

• Signed Ryan Ludwick, OF, St. Louis, Mike Mussina, SP, New York (AL) and Daniel Cabrera, SP, Baltimore; Released Matt Albers, RP, Baltimore and Edgar Renteria, SS, Detroit [5/14]
• Signed Jayson Werth, OF, Philly; Released Chad Gaudin, RP, Oakland [5/20]
• Signed Jose Contreras, SP, Chicago (AL); Released Colby Rasmus, OF, Memphis Redbirds [5/21]

There's some playing with the margins on the pitching staff here that's somewhat notable, but as the team's already sporting Haren-Beckett-Shields at the top of the rotation, this is a lot of searching just for K's and relatively harmless innings, along with crossing of the fingers that Greg Smith doesn't implode the second time around the league.

What's really notable is that our resident Cardinal guru has cut bait with Colby Rasmus, which speaks volumes as to either how much he's playing for win now or how badly Rasmus' stock has fallen in the minor leagues. (By contrast, if I were on the fringe of contention but had Fernando Martinez, I'd still hold on to him, out of fear of jinxing the already sucky Mets.) Curious to see if he gets picked up by someone else, because if the man who knows the team best doesn't want him, why should you? (El Angelo)

It's striking how few of the chosen prospects look like they'll make an impact this year (with the obvious exception of the lightning-struck Joey Votto), though I want to focus on another of the commish's moves. A brief word of praise for the signing of Baltimore's Daniel Cabrera is in order, as the big guy is a the very least on a nice run, and might have even finally turned the corner. With pitching upside in short supply at the moment, it's a nice move for the Bed Bath & Beyond-ers.

Feebly Related Brooklyn Bridge Fact: There is a Brooklyn in Baltimore as well, and it too is connected to the wider city by bridge, though the Baltimore version could politely be called the lesser known of the two Brooklyns. (Teddy)

54°40' or Fight!

• Traded Paul Konerko, 1B, Chicago (AL) to The Fighting Isaiahs for Micah Owings, SP, Arizona [5/19]
• Signed Aaron Laffey, SP, Cleveland; Waived Salomon Torres, RP, Milwaukee [5/19]

When you're competing for 2009, part of the exercise is to separate who will and won't help you for next year. Paul Konerko, while still useful, has about zero chance to be part of the next winning team from Chappaqua, hence dealing him for a pitcher with upside. I'm still fairly happy with the Aaron Laffey pickup, but can't fricking believe that Salomon Goddamn Torres became closer about an hour after I released him. Still, I can't see that lasting too long. He's bad. (El Angelo)

Micah Owings now becomes the second-best hitter on the roster; whether that speaks well for the trade or poorly for the team's last draft is left to the reader's sound judgment. (Teddy)

Feebly Related Brooklyn Bridge Fact: The bridge took some 13 years to build; by that clock, this franchise is well ahead of schedule. (Teddy)

Le Dupont Torkies

• Signed Mike Gonzalez, Broken RP, Atlanta; Released David Riske, Sucky RP, Cleveland [5/14]

Wow. If you take a peek back at our last TA, you'll note that Teddy chastised Sir Tucker for picking up Riske and I quibbled with the discarding of Gonzalez. It appears the 2006 champ is for some reason, listening to our sage wisdom. I think this has to be good news for the rest of the league, right? (El Angelo)

Those who can, do; those who can't, TA. (Teddy)

The Spam Avengers

• Signed Darrell Rasner, SP, New York (AL); Released Boof!, SP, Minnesota [5/20]

Rasner joins a fantasy rotation with Cliff Lee and Andrew Miller, giving the Spammers the monopoly on Stunningly Good Starting Pitchers. There's nothing wrong with losing Boof, and I guess there's nothing wrong with riding the Aaron Small of '08 train until the wheels come off or Joba Chamberlain officially hits the rotation. Though frankly, the way Kennedy and Hughes have pitched this year, Rasner may be the 3rd best starter for the Last Place Yankees. Man, it felt good to type that. (El Angelo)

I've expressed my opinion on premature Yankee burials in the past, so I'll let that slide. I guess a team could try to ride Rasner until the wheel come off, but he sure needs to be watched--there's nothing in his past performance to indicate that he can handle the stress of a permanent rotation slot.

Feebly Related Brooklyn Bridge Fact: Approximately 2/3 of the way through construction, it was realized that the steel cable used to hold the bridge up had been improperly manufactured. The cables had to be re-spun at great expense. Sound familiar, Cashman? (Teddy)

Decatur Commies

• Signed Billy Butler, OF, Kansas City; Released Manny Parra, RP, Milwaukee [5/13]
• Signed Masa Kobayashi, RP, Cleveland; Released Carlos Silva, SP, Seattle [5/15]

The damage line from the Carlos Silva Era: 10 innings, 12 earned runs, 21 baserunners, and a whopping 2 strikeouts. Not to say I told you so, but.... (El Angelo)

I officially have the Reverse Midas Touch with pitchers this year--whatever I touch turns to crap.

Feebly Related Brooklyn Bridge Fact: Carlos Silva should be hunted down with dogs and publicly flogged. Arguably this isn't even feebly related to the bridge, but I don't care. (Teddy)

It's Enrico Palazzo

• Signed Jake Westbrook, SP, Cleveland [5/14]
• Signed Milton Bradley, OF, Texas [5/16]

Keeping on the Springer theme of guys in Yankee trades, Jake Westbrook first became a Yankee along with Theodore Roosevelt Lilly in exchange for Fat Toad Irabu in '99, and was shipped off to Cleveland along with Ricky Ledee for David Justice in 2000. Personally, I find it amazing that Hideki was able to net 2 solid starters, albeit two guys that did nothing for the Yankees. However, it will no doubt warm the cockles of my co-author's heart to read that Westbrook first arrived on the 'Spos in exchange for....Mike Lansing!

In terms of relevancy to the Defending Champs, I presume he's only there to join John Smoltz and Jake Peavy on the DL, just so it's 3 guys with first names starting with "J". Because if he's a cog in the contending wheel, you're not repeating. (El Angelo)

The DL stash is an old and valued move in the league, so points to the champs for assembling what is undoubtedly the league's most impressive roster of broken people.

Feebly Related Brooklyn Bridge Fact: While it's not known how many people were DL'd as a result of the bridge's construction, 27 people shuffled off to the Thurman Munson Memorial Dead Zone as a result of construction injuries. (Teddy)

The Fighting Isaiahs

• Signed Joey Devine, RP, Oakland; Released Santiago Casilla, RP, Oakland [5/16]
  
• Trade Micah Owings, SP, Arizona to 54°40' or Fight! for Paul Konerko, 1B, Chicago (AL) [5/19]
  
• Released Devine and Barry Bonds, OF, California Penal League; Signed Edgar Rentablowjob, SS, Detroit and Randy Wolf, SP, San Diego [5/21]
• Released Wolf; Signed Armando Galarraga, SP, Detroit [5/22]
• Released Galarraga; Signed Salomon Torres, RP, Milwaukee [5/23]

This team now has on their roster David Ortiz, Paul Konerko, Todd Helton and Nick Swisher. How are they not in last in steals? (El Angelo)

Never mind that: Barry Bonds just got cut! I know he's not in the bigs anymore, but that's a big milestone--I think he's one of only a few Original First Rounders to get cut. Hey, that's a fun
idea for a column some time this summer--whatever happened to the OFRs. Anybody have a complete list of who was taken? Lemme know in the comments. (Teddy)

Great Moments in Betting History, Part 348

With under a minute to go in tonight's Celtics-Pistons conference championship game, the Pistons were inbounding the ball with a three-point lead. As the teams broke the huddle, the staff at the Undoubtedly Soon To Be Merged Financial Institution Garden tried to fire up the crowd by spinning the opening to Guns 'N' Roses timeless classic "Paradise City." Presumably, the song choice was intended to create an environment intimidating to the visiting Pistons, and coincidentally throw fear into the hearts of those in the betting community who had Detroit on the money line this evening.

However, any trepidation on the part of those bettors was undoubtedly quelled by the sight of Detroit forward Rasheed Wallace singing along to the G'n'R track as he took his position for the inbounds play. This was not the reaction of an intimidated player; indeed, 'Sheed went on to draw a foul and sink what was for all intents and purposes the game-clinching free throw. You'd have to think that the live line on betting futures on the game clicked to 1:1 on the Pistons at that point.

In any event, note to the Garden staff: Be Professional. Take the extra step and check the iPods of opposing players before making end-of-game musical selections. As a hint, we understand that Chancey Billups is deathly afraid of show tunes.

Non-Fans Guide to the Champions League Final

Tomorrow, the European soccer season will culminate in the Champions League final between English clubs Manchester United and Chelsea. The match will go off at around 2:30 p.m. east coast time, meaning that it provides the sort of mid-week working hour distraction that is so necessary for most workpod-bound drones out there in the corporate world. But in order to get the maximum possible distraction out of the event, you have to know the basics of what's at stake and who's playing.

Thus, as part of the GRBG's continuing quest to provide primers on sports that most Americans neither embrace nor understand, we humbly present the following viewing guide for those whose soccer experience petered out at the level of participation trophies and halftime orange wedges.

What The Hell Is The Champions League, Exactly?

The premier club soccer tournament in the world.

Most Americans only encounter soccer every 4 years, in the form of the World Cup, which like this summer's forthcoming European Championships, pits national teams against each other. But national team games and tournaments make up only about 10% of professional soccer matches. The rest take place in club leagues, for whom the Champions League is the ultimate goal. In brief, Champions League : World Cup :: NBA Finals : World Basketball Championships.

Each European country has its own system of leagues. The winner of each country's league is determined through the delightfully old-school method of having every team play every other team once at home, and once on the road. Best record wins the league--no playoffs. And for a long time, that's where matters ended.

But there soon arose barstool debates regarding which country's league champion was the best. This led to the 1955 creation of the European Cup tournament, in which the 1954 winners of the various leagues played a straight knockout tournament to decide the best of the best. This went a long way towards deciding things, and so there the matter rested for nearly 40 years.

Until, that is, money and game theory intervened. As with U.S. college football bowl games, European Cup entrants got additional revenue from participating in the Cup. As TV brought more and more money into the European Cup, more and more money was at stake for the clubs. This meant, among other things, that if a club won its domestic league, it was assured of a big injection of cash the next year. This in turn allowed the club to spend more money on players that offseason--which of course made it that much more likely to win the domestic league again the next year, continuing the cycle.

Domestic league winners had traditionally tended to come from a group of 2-5 clubs in from each country. But the bonus of European money meant that there was a chance that one team could keep plowing its European Cup money back into the team and essentially develop a dynasty back home. Because all of the top clubs in each country were afraid they'd end up on the short end of that particular stick, they all agreed to create a hedge by expanding the European tournament to include multiple clubs from each country. That way everybody (well, all of the traditional domestic winners, at least) would get a piece of the pie. Thus was born the current Champions League model, in which the top few finishers from each big domestic league (and the winners of the smaller leagues) play a year-long series of round robins. The survivors then play a knockout tournament akin to the old European Cup. The final of that tournament is tomorrow.

Who The Hell Is Playing?

Two English clubs, one of whom (Manchester United) is a traditional power, having won six of the past ten English league titles, and two European championships over the years, and the other of whom (Chelsea) is a club with a long but not particularly distinguished history, who have surged to prominence over the past 5 years since being purchased by a shady Russian oligarch. By way of analogy, think of a World Series matching the New York Yankees against a Pittsburgh Pirate team that had recently been sold to, and was now lavishly funded by, Donald Trump. Let's go to the tale of the tape:

Owners

Manchester United: Tampa Bay Bucs owner Malcom Glazer, possibly the most owner most hated by fans of his own club (who are not so keen on either his U.S. passport or his highly leveraged purchase of the club). May or may not be able to identify a soccer ball by sight.

Chelsea: Russian robber baron Roman Abramovich, possibly the owner most hated by fans of all clubs other than his own (who are not so keen on either his Russian passport or his Steinbrenniarian payroll, which has priced nearly every other English team out of the high-end talent market). May or may not be mob-connected.

Advantage Chelsea -- Russian mobsters beat Gulf coast Floridians every time, especially because the final will be played in Moscow.

Coaches

Man U: Sir Alex Ferguson, a legendarily feisty Scot known, among other things, for bouncing a soccer cleat off of David Beckham's elaborately coiffed skull during Beckham's tenure in Manchester. Widely reknowned as a motivator, and arguably the most successful manager in the world over the past two decades.

Chelsea: Avram Grant, a lumpy Israeli puppet installed by Abramovich following the departure of high-profile Portuguese coach Jose Mourinho. Widely panned by everyone, Chelsea fans included, though he has led his team to a pair of domestic runner-up finishes this year in the League and League Cup.

Advantage Man U -- Grant can't be as bad as his rep, but Ferguson has won everything there is to win in club football.

Key Player

Man U: Cristiano Ronaldo, who scored 31 goals in 38 games in the English league this year, despite not lining up as a true forward for much of the season. Ronaldo is supremely talented, but off-puttingly slick and a bit of a whiner on the field. The best analogy would be to Alex Rodriguez, except that Ronaldo has actually won a few things during his career.

Chelsea: While the English duo of midfielder Frank Lampard and defender John Terry are widely seen as the engines behind Chelsea, for our money Ivorian striker Didier Drogba is the key man for Chelsea tomorrow. Drogba is both stronger and faster than most strikers, and can provide the touch of unpredictability that an otherwise workmanlike Chelsea team can lack. However, despite his physical gifgts, Drogba is known for taking minutes, halves, games, and occasionally weeks off when the game fails to engage his attention. The clear analogy here is to Randy Moss, with the exception that Drogba has a better big-game rep.

Advantage Chelsea -- Ronaldo is the better player, but Drogba can be a force of nature when motivated. In a game that figures to be tightly played, he can break things open by himself.

Prediction: While Man U have the better side 1 through 11, we think that Drogba's individual brilliance and Abramovich's mob friends will combine to get Chelsea the win. Look for Drogba to draw an early penalty kick, and for Chelsea to hang on from there.

Wow

Five wins, 39+ lengths in front of the vanquished competition, and if Kent Desormeaux had tried in either the Derby or Preakness, that number could be closer to 50. This is one talented horse and one crappy group of 3 year olds he's beating. And now we go to Belmont for the Triple Crown. Here are the Gazette's morning line odds:

Big Brown............3-5
Casino Drive........4-1
Denis of Cork.......6-1
Tale of Ekati........8-1
Macho Again.......30-1
Icabad Crane......50-1
Anak Nakal.........50-1
Tomcito...............100-1

Coming up in the next fortnight or so, the three-part Belmont Stakes preview. Is Big Brown the next Seattle Slew, or the next Real Quiet?

2008 Preakness Preview: Dominance Repated?

The years on the calendar may change, but the Preakness storylines always stay the same. Every year after the Derby, we have a winner atop the 3-year-old class, followed by one of four reactions to his win and his chances to take the Triple Crown:

1. What the hell happened?!??!? This comes when you have a titanic upset in the Derby that takes pretty much everyone by surprise. Examples of this include Charismatic (1999), War Emblem (2002) and Giacomo (2005). Everyone thinks that the Triple Crown is a pipe dream. While Giacomo went on to do absolutely nothing for the rest of his career, it's notable that the other two managed to follow up their Derby upsets with Preakness wins, only to flop in the Belmont.

2. Yeah he won, but so what? This is the common reaction for a result that's an upset but not really that big an upset or a horse that was more professional than brilliant in winning the Derby. Recent examples are Real Quiet (1998) and Funny Cide (2003). Nobody's dismissing the Triple Crown after the win, but certainly nobody's thinking it's going to happen either. It's notable again that both of these horses, with considerably less hype than you'd think, won the Preakness with relative ease only to once again come up short in the Belmont.

3. Impressive. Do it again. Usually goes to a horse that looked quite good winning the Derby and was very pickable beforehand, but comes with the caveat that the racing public knows the challenge he's got ahead of him, often because of a looming nemesis still in contention who didn't fire his best shot on Derby day. This group includes Silver Charm (1997), Monarchos (2001), Smarty Jones (2004), and Street Sense (2007) . Nobody's sold on the Triple Crown, but everyone thinks that it's a possibility if they can put forward more similar efforts because clearly the talent is there. For what it's worth, only Silver Charm repeated in the Preakness, and he only did so because Touch Gold had a trip from hell.

4. We have the next Secretariat! Everyone's ready to anoint the Derby winner as the Triple Crown heir apparent because of a dominant win in Louisville. The recent examples of this are Fusaichi Pegasus (2000) and Barbaro (2006), and it goes without saying that Big Brown falls into this category as well. People are already pointing towards his potential Belmont matchup with Casino Drive as the next coming of Affirmed-Alydar while ignoring the fact that he has to win on Saturday at Pimlico. And it's worth noting that while the press had given FuPeg and Barbaro the Triple Crown after their scintillating Derby winners....both lost the Preakness.

I'm not going to pour on Barbaro's grave, except to note he would have had a helluva time beating Bernardini in the Preakness had he kept running, because Bernardini was an absolute freak and ran his eyeballs out in the Preakness. So let's instead focus on a not-bad comparison for Big Brown: Fusaichi Pegasus, who was dubbed Super Horse before and after the Derby. Check out some of the comments from the press and racing world in 2000:

BALTIMORE - Today's running of the Preakness is all about Fusaichi Pegasus. This may be as close to a one-horse race as you can get. (Boston Globe)

Beyer said if it wasn't the Preakness, he wouldn't have wagered on a race with such a strong favorite like Fusaichi Pegasus. But he felt inclined to get involved in the middle jewel, even though he can't bet against Fusaichi Pegasus. "Nobody is going to take a shot against him," Beyer says. "He is a justified 1-5 favorite. Picking someone in a win is a stretch." (ESPN.com)

BALTIMORE -- Trainer Bob Baffert, never more than a length away from a wisecrack, knows how Kentucky Derby winner Fusaichi Pegasus can lose the Preakness: Load him in the gate backward. "These other horses are going to have to run the race of their lives," said Baffert, who won the Derby and Preakness with Silver Charm (1997) and Real Quiet (1998). "This Derby winner is an extraordinary horse." (AP)

Come Preakness day, with the grounds a veritable pea soup from a rainstorm, the somewhat-heralded Red Bullet upset FuPeg, who would only win one more race in his brief career. And with rain in the forecast for Pimlico on Friday (and possibly Saturday), it begs the question: is there a Red Bullet in this field?

Without further ado, let's run down the contenders in this year's Preakness in the reverse order of their likelihood to win. While I do note that the horses I picked to finish 12th and 17th ran 1-2 in the Derby, let's ignore that and focus on my sterling pick of Curlin last year.

My Trainer Hates Me

13. Yankee Bravo. His best performance to date was an exceedingly slow win in the California Derby on a synthetic surface. Top off the fact he's slow as all hell with the fact he's not bred to get a mile, let alone the Preakness distance, and he's tough to endorse.

12. Riley Tucker. Stepped up enormously in his last race...over Polytrack. Taking that out of the equation, he's shown nothing on the dirt to indicate he belongs in a Grade 3 race, let alone the Preakness.

11. Kentucky Bear. His trainer's been hyping him to no end since his first start. He backed that up with a nice maiden win...and a scintillating 7th place finish in the Fountain of Youth behind a bunch of horses that have done nothing. And the two horses that ran in front of him in the Blue Grass came back to run 9th and 20th in the Derby. This is roughly the equivalent of DeShawn Stevenson's guarantee, only if it came against the Lakers. Next...

10. Icabad Crane. He's the only starter that's got a race over the track. As for his other merits, I'm going to be kind and say nothing, because there are none. More to the point, why would a jockey ride a horse named after The Legend of Sleepy Hollow? Wouldn't superstition keep you far far away from anything that would even reference your potential decapitation?

Longshots to Finish in the Exotics

9. Tres Borrachos. He's been beaten pretty soundly by both the aforementioned Yankee Bravo, who stinks, and Gayego, who's also in this race. There's the remote chance that he could get an easy lead and hang on for the show spot, but I think there's going to be a little more pace in this race than everyone else thinks.

8. Behindatthebar. He'll take a ton of action because of the Pletcher factor and because he won nicely in his last race, the Lexington over Polytrack. Problem is that he beat nobody of note in that race and looks to be a synthetic track fiend. There's also something a tad bizarre about the fact that Pletcher isn't going to his first call jockey, John Velazquez, here. Yes, his current jock (David Flores) isn't bad and rode him in all his victories, but you'd think if the trainer thought he had a real contender he'd do what he could to get him in the race. [Update: he's been scratched with a bruised hoof, and will point to the Belmont. --ElAngelo]

7. Giant Moon. Had trouble getting by Court Vision in his last race, who was up the track in the Derby. Tough to see how he'd improve here; the only benefit in his corner is that he's by Giant's Causeway, which is offset by his damsire being a sprinter. Looks like a great contender for the Mike Lee Stakes next month.

6. Hey Byrn. One of the three horses in this race to have a graded stakes win on the dirt (along with Gayego and Big Brown), his last meeting with Big Brown resulted in him getting trounced by 15 lengths. He rebounded somewhat to win the Holy Bull stakes at the Preakness distance, but he actually ran slower in that race than he did in his two earlier wins this year. He's going to be overbet because of his kinda-gaudy record, which is based on a couple of allowance races, and given his horrendous post (#13), he's a nice bet-against.

Exotic Hopefuls

5. Racecar Rhapsody. This horse's chances of winning should be somewhere around 50-1, as he really hasn't come that close in his last few starts against lesser company. However, he's a stone closer in a race with a fair amount of speed, and his breeding suggests he'll actually like the distance. He's a great filler for exactas, trifectas, and superfectas, and may actually help raise the prices a little bit.

4. Macho Again. One of the tougher reads in the field, as he fits speed-figure wise with Gayego off his last race, a scintillating win in the Derby Trial. Still, it's worth bearing in mind that he got an absolute dream trip in that race and now adds 3 furlongs in distance. There's a chance he's getting good at the right time. There's also a chance that he's just not that good--both starts in graded stakes races were absolute stinkbombs. Tough to leave out of triples, but also tough to love.

3. Stevil. Interesting sleeper horse. Zito's been touting this guy as one of his best all year, but the results haven't really shown on the track. His loss in the Blue Grass was a decent but not great Polytrack effort, but what stands out is his race prior to that, where he made a fair move in the Louisiana Derby, only to have horrendous traffic trouble. Top that off with some nice workouts since his last, and we may have a horse here with some upside. Not enough to catch Big Brown, but enough to consider a top-3 finish.

The Potential Upsetter

2. Gayego. More than once in the next 72 hours, you're going to hear comparisons between this horse and Louis Quatorze, who ran 16th in the 1996 Derby only to bounce back and win at Pimlico at 8-1 on Preakness day. That does provide some historical precedent from bouncing back from a bad Derby effort, but it's the exception, not the rule. Since Louis Q., the other horses that rebounded from Derby losses to win the Preakness were Point Given (5th in the Derby), Afleet Alex (3rd) and Curlin (3rd). Still, this horse is worth thinking about because he's shown the ability to pop at triple digit Gowanus Speed Figure, does have good tactical speed that might give him first run on Big Brown, and was taken out of all consideration in the Derby about 1/4 mile into the race. I'm still not wild about his breeding at this distance, but he's a lot more proven than the other 11 challengers in this race, and if Big Brown regresses enough, he's really the only plausible candidate to fill the Red Bullet role.

The Pick

1. Big Brown. Yeah, this is about as interesting as watching paint dry. But unless he trips up because of weather or his achy feet, or Gayego moves about 10 lengths forward, it's almost impossible to see how he's going to lose this race. I still don't think he's as super as everyone else does, but he's miles better than this execrable field. Sorry kids.

How to Play the Race

If you're at Pimlico on Saturday, between your Miller Lites, consider playing a Pick 3 or Pick 4 that ends in the Preakness, as you can either single Big Brown with confidence or take a stab at boxcar payoffs with Gayego or if you're really crazy, one of the other horses. If you're being more simple, I'd look to key BB and Gayego in the top 2 spots of triples and supefectas, and spread with some of the longer shots (Stevil, Racecar Rhapsody) underneath. Even with BB on top, it could still pay over $500 if the right horses come in.

Good luck to all!

[Update: 5/16, 10:31 am: Behindatthebar has been scratched with a bruised hoof. Annoying, as he was going to take a lot of money relative to his chances. Sigh. The guys at East Coast Bias are all over this race as well.]

The Five Stages of Being Awesome, by Manny Ramirez

1. With 1 out and runners on first and second, make improbable full stretch running catch:

2. Immediately following catch, leap over outfield wall in order to high five Red Sox fan attending game in Baltimore:



3. Remember the play is still live, throw ball into infield:



4. Double off runner at first base, ending inning:



5. Commence disco with teammate Jon Van Every, who has been called up that very day and now has a fantastic anecdote for his grandkids:



Awesome. It's the play of the year, and we're not even to Memorial Day yet.

How To Improve Racing's TV Coverage

As Deadspin's Media Approval Ratings are showing, to be a successful and well-regarded media personality, you should exhibit at least one of three qualities:

1. Be good at what you do. There's no substitute for extreme competency, especially when you're personable in the process. Examples: Ernie Johnson, Mike Breen, Vin Scully, Rob Neyer.

2. Be humorous. And in a good way, not in an über ironic or know-it-all fashion. Examples: Charles Barkley, Kenny Mayne.

3. Be attractive. There's nothing wrong with being pretty. Example: Erin Andrews.

Failing on those 3 qualities, most media members shoot for bland and useful. Which is ok, the world needs a lot of Rece Davises. It's when you venture into the land of trying to be not-bland and lack one if the aforementioned qualities that you run into trouble. Let's take a look at a fine exhibit of this...

...Hank Goldberg. The Hammer is the resident gambler on the WorldWide Leader, and as he's quick to point out, a protege of Jimmy the Greek. ESPN drags him out for football picks, but I'm more interested in looking at how they use him for horse racing. Goldberg is presented as gambling savant with great insights as to how to play the races and win bundles of money while being a resident curmudgeon in the process. Does this pass the test? No. In short:

1. Goldberg offers no insight on gambling, as he's not instructive to the novice viewer and instead announces his bets as if they're proclamations from Mount Olympus. The problem is that his wagers suck and are at best, predictably bad. Nobody has ever made money aping the Hammers' selections.

2. Hank not only isn't funny, he's downright surly and condescending. He's very similar to Billy Packer, whose popularity in the blogosphere is between Mitch Albom's and Buzz Bissinger's.

3. Hank is...well, not easy on the eyes.

Given that horse racing could stand to up its Q rating, you'd think they'd try to get someone else. Fear not, for I have the perfect replacement for Hank...



...meet the Beulah Twins!

Originally these ladies were tellers at Beulah Park, a minor racetrack in Ohio. One day, the track president noticed them working and the fact that they're kinda cute, and let them do the pre-race paddock show. Handle increased by over 50% as a result. Since then, they've appeared in Playboy magazine and have spiked the attention of thousands of geriatrics at Gulfstream. And the kicker: they actually know something about racing. They at a minimum pass the threshold of the attractiveness quotient and can speak smartly about racing? What's wrong with this?

So here's the solution where everyone wins: ship Hank back to the football both, where he can concentrate on giving his silly teaser bets to Berman & Co during NFL Countdown. And get these girls on the horn. Lord knows they would definitely be happy to get the hell out of exurban Columbus, Ohio.

Two Great Stallions Call It a Career

As reported by the Daily Racing Form, two of the most influential sires on both sides of the Atlantic are hanging up their breeding cleats. In Ireland, turf titan Sadler's Wells was retired because of declining fertility and the fact that he's 27, well into the twilight years of a horse. Coolmore Farm's management had nothing but positive comments on his career:

"I think Sadler's Wells is generally acknowledged as the best sire Europe has ever seen, and we feel very privileged to have been associated with him," said Coolmore manager Christy Grassick. "Despite his advancing years, he is still in remarkably good condition, and I hope he enjoys a long and happy retirement." (all quotes from the Daily Racing Form)

On this side of the pond, super sire Storm Cat was pensioned by Overbrook Farms, a huge loss to their bottom line since he went for between $300k and $500k a throw. What happened to him? They're not calling it declining fertility, but rather, the poor condition of his semen:

"We have been monitoring his semen quality throughout the breeding season, and there's been a decline in the quality of his semen," Waldman said.

Storm Cat will remain at Overbrook in Lexington for the remainder of his days.

"He's been a great asset to the farm, and it's been a privilege to be able to be associated with him," Waldman added.

Waldman said that Storm Cat is in good health for his age.

It's nice to hear that Storm Cat will still be around for tourists and the locals, despite shooting wads of insufficient quality. What's going to be tough is for Overbrook to calm the old hoss down; he's used to a large book of mares every year, and will probably not take turning into a Trappist monk lying down.

Transaction Analysis: Carcass-Picking Edition

Canada sucks. I know, I hear you. How could the land of poutine and above-average strip club buffets suck? Well, for one thing, it's the home of the Montreal Canadiens, who ruined parts of my childhood along with Bill Simmons's. But for our purposes here at the GRBG, the lion's share of the suckening is directly attributable to one man:

[Awesome image originally found here]

Yes, the last act in the four-year tectonic destruction of Eric Greg Gagne's shoulder, elbow and psyche has arrived, resulting in a wasted draft pick for me, and a volume of league transactions almost large enough to warrant a TA of their own. So come with us as the league picks clean the carcass of my embarrassingly early draft pick. You jackals. [Teddy]

Eric Gagne almost single-handedly propelled me to a pair of in the money finishes in 2002 and 2003, back when he didn't, well, suck. I'm happy to honor him in this way by looking at the litter of corpses strewn about our league. Because unlike fans of at least 4 teams, I still have fond memories of him. (El Angelo)

Wu Tang Financial

• Signed Brian Shouse, RP, MIL; Released Armando Galarraga, P, DET [5/13]
  

And off we go! WTF gets in on the Gagne implosion, signing Brian "The Brick" S"hit"house in an effort to get a piece of the future saves in Milwaukee. Pros: Actually got the first post-Gagne save for the Brewers. Cons: Is not good at baseball (lousy K rate; iffy K/BB rate; allows .851 OPSA to RHH). Estimated length of stay on roster: 3 weeks. (Teddy)

I'll take the under on that in a heartbeat. What I also don't get is how they managed to dump the only pitcher on the Tigers' staff with an ERA under 5 in Not Andres Galarraga. But between Shouse and Aquilino Lopez, this team's got a monopoly on Crappy Non-Closers. I dare him to pick up Aaron Heilman.

I'd also like to re-note what our Commish stated on our website that The Gravel Pits have hit the century mark on Mother's Day, which has been indicative thrice before of a losing effort in the league. I will temper that doomsday proposition with noting that all those teams did finish in the money in their respective years, but it's nice that we can cross of a team besides mine and Ironhead's for the win slot. (El Angelo)

Christmas Critters

• Released Bronson Arroyo, SP, Cincy [5/7]
• Signed Ryan Franklin and Russ Springer, RPs, St. Louis; Released Scott Downs, RP, Toronto and Mark Ellis, 2B, Oakland [5/10]
• Released Springer [5/13]
  

The Holiday Bedbugs made the somewhat defensible move of cutting ex-Sox Bronson Arroyo, only to have him pitch well against My Mets, so I don't expect him to linger on waivers for long. They then made the hedge move of picking up both prospective St. Louis closers, now that Jason Isringhausen has turned into a pumpkin for good. Not that this was a shocker: this was a man who blew a save and a game in the span of 58 seconds. Good riddance Jason, and don't forget your TB vaccination on the way out. (El Angelo)

An interesting approach here--rather than join the line forming to peck away at Gagne's eyes, the Critters chose to corner the deathwatch market in St. Louis. While it's never particularly heartening to find Ryan Franklin on your roster, the CC's are at least assured of a few weeks of save opps, until the Cardinals move on to the next plug. (Teddy)

clemens the pederast

• Signed Blake DeWitt, 3B, LAN; Released Jason Kugel, Noodle Pudding, MIN

I love a nice kugel. They go great with pork chops and shellfish. (Teddy)

And you're not even a MOTT or married to one, as evidenced by your choice of side dishes. Kugel does a tremendous job of getting the absolutely nasty residual taste of the gefiltefish, which absolutely annihilate all the upside of the seder-opening haroset and matzoh ball soup. Since we're already on the subject of seders and Blake DeWitt, I'm going to use this as an excuse to run a picture of a personal fave, Alicia Witt, who stellarly played D-girl Amy Safit, Christopher Moltosanti's cousin-in-law back in season two. (El Angelo)

The Fighting Isaiahs

• Signed Tim Redding, SP, Washington; Released Jason Giambi, 1B, New York (AL) [5/8]
• Released Redding; Activated Jair Jurrjens, SP, Atlanta from the prospect list [5/10]

Man, how bad have things gotten for Jason HGHiambi that he was cut for Tim Goddamn Redding, and the move was defensible? At least the Militant Point Guards realized that Tim Redding is a bad pitcher on a bad team, and got rid of him stat for a former minor leaguer who at least knows how to throw strikes. There's nothing depressing about an aging slugger being cut for a young flame thrower, but being tossed aside for Tim Redding really should make Jason reconsider staying on a major league roster. (El Angelo)

All this for the bargain price of $21,000,000 this season! There's a non-zero chance that Hank has him chopped up and thrown into some fresh cement at the new Stadium. (Teddy)

It's Enrico Palazzo

• Released Pat Neshek, RP, Minnesota [5/10]

For those keeping score at home, this is move #1 in Pat Neshek's effort to repeat the Pewter Parachute award. Keep it up Pat. The morning line contenders for your crown are Manny Acosta, Lastings Milledge and Jon Rauch. (El Angelo)

Alas, Neshek's elbow blowout means that his run at a second Pewter Parachute award (which is of course dedicated to the memory of that transactions titan and noted building remodeler, Corey Lidle) is over. Unless Ang and I get bored and just swap him back and forth all August. Which, knowing us, might happen. (Teddy)

Le Dupont Torkies

• Activated Joey Votto, 1B, Cincy from the prospect list; Released Ubaldo Jimenez, SP, Colorado [5/5]
• Signed Chris Ianetta, C, Colorado; Released Jake Westbrook, SP, Cleveland [5/7]
• Traded Votto to 54°40' or Fight! for Chad Billingsley, SP, Los Angeles [5/10]
• Signed Andy Sonnenstine, SP, TB; Released Mike Gonzalez, RP, ATL [5/12]
• Released Sonnenstine; Signed David Riske, RP, MIL [5/13]

In his later years the owner of the Torkies will sit by the fire, gather his 3 daughters and 8 granddaughters about him, and tell them of the long-ago time when he promoted a fat Italian first baseman off of his fantasy prospect list just in time to watch him hit 3 dingers in a game, then flipped him for a stud pitcher. And his family will smile beatifically, then up his medication dosage.

He will not, however, tell them about the time he signed David Riske as part of the scavenging operation surrounding the sinking of he HMS Gagne. Some things are too painful to relive. Fun facts: Riske's K rate is worse than Gagne's, and their K/BB rate are nearly identical. (Teddy)

The Billingsley move makes perfect sense for a team that's doing it by smoke and mirrors in the staff; they're somehow in 2nd place in the league without having anything resembling a real pitching staff, but Billingsley's a nice step towards actually looking like you're trying. I'm actually going a different mode of criticism: why the haste to dump Mike Gonzalez? Injured, he's doing you less damage than Riske will while pitching, and he's next in line to close for Atlanta. Was the roster spot for him that big a deal? (El Angelo)

54°40' or Fight!

• Signed Hong Chi-Kuo, RP, Los Angeles; Released Vernon Wells, OF, Toronto [5/8]
• Traded Chad Billingsley, SP, Los Angeles to Le Dupont Torkies for Joey Votto, 1B, Cincinnati [5/10]
• Released Kuo; Signed Guillermo Mota, RP, Milwaukee [5/11]
• Released Brandon Morrow, RP, SEA; Signed Salomon Torres, RP, MIL

Whenever you trade young pitching for young hitting, you tend to trade upside for certainty. Given the number of wild cards already on the roster, the fitty-fo-foties could use a little more certainty. With that in mind, I like the trade here.

And it's always nice to former have Pewter Parachute winner Guillermo Mota back in the mix. Plus, Mota actually has the best line of any of the Brewers usurpers so far this season, so he'll have the first crack at screwing things up in Milwaukee. I've no doubt he'll succeed eventually, but he might be flippable in the meantime. I assume Salomon Torres is only along for completeness's sake.

For those following at home, the league has now signed everything in the Milwaukee bullpen except Bernie Brewer and the guy who drives the bullpen cart. (Teddy)

The kicker is that Milwaukee stinks. It's one thing to pick through the bones of a good team's bullpen when the closer goes down, but the Brew Crew look like toast. Of course, that still probably makes them better than the Mets. Sigh. As for the deal, Chadsky summed it up about right in that I need some actual boppers instead of 8 lottery tickets in the staff. Given that Billingsley's already used up a year of keeperdom and Votto's a free play, it was an easy call. (El Angelo)

Frank the Tank

• Signed Kaz Matsui, Pig, Colorado; Released Paul Maholm, SP, Pittsburgh [5/9]
• Signed Vernon Wells, Broken OF, Toronto; Released Manny Corpas, RP, Colorado [5/11]

Exhibit A in why not to draft third-tier closers too early: Manny Corpas. For every Eric Gagne circa 2002, there are a dozen of these clowns. I hate every other player in this transaction list and won't even try to comment on their sorry asses. (El Angelo)

Toronto might well be out of it by the time Vernon Wells comes back, which means he's a good candidate to out up a a couple months of meaningless garbage time stats. Which, at least in the GRBG's world, makes this a nice pickup. (Teddy)

Presidential Timber

• Signed Erick Aybar, SS, Anaheim; Released Aaron Hill, 2B, Toronto [5/7]
• Signed Vincente Padilla, SP, Texas and Garrett Olson, SP, Baltimore; Released Billy Butler, OF, Kansas City and Randy Wolf, SP, San Diego [5/8]
• Signed Paul Bako, C, Cleveland; Released JR Towles, C, Houston [5/10]

I'm trying to find something inspirational, critical or funny about this. (El Angelo)

... (Teddy)

Matsui's Fissure

• Signed Manny Acosta, RP, Atlanta; Released Tony Pena, RP, Arizona [5/8]

You could have written "Manny Pena"/"Tony Acosta" and I would have had the same reaction: utter indifference. (El Angelo)

Are you kidding? This is the move that will make the difference between 8th place and 9th place! (Teddy)

No Means No, Mr. Kenny

We're loathe to pile on ESPN, as there are plenty of other blogs out there already dedicated to ESPN bashing, and most of which are better written than this one. That said, we would be doing a disservice to humanity if we failed to note the "interview" of Chris Mortensen by Brian Kenny that ran during the 6:00 P.M. eastern SportsCenter on Thursday. The interview concerned the report that former New England Patriots video assistant Matt Walsh has provided the NFL with additional videotapes of opponents' signals.

To us, the interview and evinces either a mindless determination by Kenny to continue hyping the story in the face of Mortensen's calm recitation of the facts, or a signal failure by an ESPN intern to brief Kenny on anything resembling the factual background of the story. Either way the interview looked like it killed whatever was left of Mortensen's respect for his employer.

Serious notes before we begin: What follows is a partial transcript of the interview. It includes everything but the last part of the last answer by Mortensen, which related to league rule changes and which we cut to save space. We have not otherwise altered the content of the transcript. However, as with any transcript, other listeners might have differently chosen to punctuate or add indications of emphasis or parenthetical clarifications.

It's lengthy, but hang in there. As an incentive, we'll do before and after shots of the increasingly beleaguered Mortensen. Here's the before, with Mort looking wary, but resolute:


Brian Kenny: We're joined now by our own Chris Mortensen. Mort, Commissioner Roger Gooddell had said that he could consider further punishment against the Patriots. These are [tapes of] different games, and there's film now of offensive and defensive signals--is this enough now to open it up?

Chris Mortensen: No. Not based on what we know from the letter of certification Matt Walsh's attorney sent the league. The tapes are now in the league's offices . . . league hands, being reviewed.

But we need to go back and maybe make sure chronologically that we understand that, number 1, the NFL always had information that this taping took place back through 2000. There's no new revelation there. And if you go back to the September 13th release when Belichick was penalized as well as the Patriots, you will see in there that it covers offensive and defensive signals.

So, therefore, unless Matt Walsh has some new testimony that he can corroborate outside of these tapes, there's no new information. And let's don't forget that Belichick admitted to the commissioner that he had been doing this since he'd been in New England.

BK: Going back to 2000, then?

CM: Absolutely, yeah. We reported it. We reported that first week of Spygate that Belichick had admitted that. So, that's not necessarily . . . that's not a new revelation.

BK: Mort, how will the teams that were taped--especially the Steelers, in a conference championship game--take all this?

CM: Well, again, when Commissioner Gooddell met with Arlen Specter, the senator from Pennsylvania, he briefed him on on what were in the notes in addition to the tapes they had, because the notes dated back to 2000, and in those notes, as Gooddell told Specter in their meeting, it included these Pittsburgh Steeler AFC Championship games in '01 and '04. The Boston Globe reported that on February 16th, and then Dan Rooney, the Pittsburgh Steeler's owner and chairman of their board released a statement saying 'there is nothing in the tapes of our coaching signals that would have an impact on the games, and it is no issue with us.'

So, so far I'd say all that damage control has been done.

BK: Walsh says he does not have the Rams 2002 Super Bowl walkthrough tape--that's a potential smoking gun that's been reported out there. Do you think it wasn't done, or that Walsh doesn't have a tape of it, because Walsh hasn't spoken to the commissioner yet.

CM: Well, let's also remember that the only report concerning the Rams' walkthrough, Matt Walsh was never named as the guy who allegedly videotaped it. And he's never said he's had it, and I think that's one thing commissioner Gooddell really wants to speak with [Walsh] about on Tuesday is, OK, even though you were identified, this thing lingered out there a couple of months, why didn't you clarify this, why did you let this thing linger?

And so, if Walsh has information, and he can identify another videotape assistant who videotaped that Rams walkthrough, that'd be one thing. But right now there's no evidence there is such a videotape.

BK: Mort, does this change anything though around the league as far as how Bill Belichick should be viewed, now that there's this hard evidence on precisely what they were doing and it's a pattern that goes back to 2000?

CM: Not around--it doesn't change the perception around the league; everyone knows Belichick's been doing--he admitted that he'd been doing it. [Remainder of answer cut for length.]

* * *

Gee whiz, Brian, you think maybe there's no story here? Christ. Did Belichick sleep with his wife as well? Kenny better hope that Buzz Bissinger doesn't get hold of this transcript, or he's likely to bite off Kenny's ear. In any event, somebody should put Mortensen on a suicide alert--here's the "after" shot:


We all feel you, Mort. Drinks on us next time you make it out Gowanus way.

I'm Adriana Monsalve; Now, Back to Sports-CENTER

One of the myriad joys of unemployment is the freedom it gives you to indulge in leisurely watchings (and occasionally re-watchings) of the morning reruns of SportsCenter. After engaging in a week or so of restful contemplation of these reruns, the extremely stringent dress ESPN anchor dress code begins to pop out at you. For example, as I type this I'm watching an SC rerun featuring John Andersen in a dark grey suit and Steve Levy in a dark grey pinstriped suit that will no doubt result in Levy finding an HR memo waiting in his cubby following the broadcast.

But one ESPN personality appears to be joyfully exempt from the ESPN anchor mold:

Above is the lovely Adriana Monsalve, who is periodically tapped to guest anchor a short segment on SportsCenter dedicated primarily to soccer. One aspect of her uniqueness is readily apparent from that picture--not that John Buccigross isn't an good-looking man, but Ms. Monsalve clearly scores higher than the average SC anchor on most conventional attractiveness scales. This difference is understandable, though, given that TV has a long-standing preference for pretty people.

A second aspect of Ms. Monsalve's uniqueness is obvious as soon as she begins delivering her lines, as her native Venezuelan accent is . . . not subtle. For example, her efforts at narrating a highlight involving German soccer club Bayern Munich almost resulted in a call for the Jaws of Life. But this difference is also understandable given that (1) she is on SC as part of a cross-branding effort with ESPN Deportes and (2) I suspect that the Spanish language skills of, say, Barry Melrose aren't quite up to snuff for an appearance on Deportes.

But by far the biggest aspect of Ms. Monsalve's uniqueness are her wardrobe choices, which appear to have been made by the same person who dressed Charles Nelson Reilly for his appearances on Match Game '77. For example, I'm 92% sure that she wore the outfit at left last week while discussing the Barca-Man U Champions League semifinal.

Why Ms. Monsalve alone is allowed to break free of the chains of ESPN corporate dress policy is a bit of a mystery. If we're lucky, though, it represents the first crack in the charcoal grey wall that is the average ESPN anchor.

For example, just think of the ratings spike that would result in, say, Linda Cohn breaking out this little number at right for the 11PM Sunday SC. Admittedly, this outfit is more 1985 Bond villain than Match Game '77, but in this bold new post-dress code universe, who cares?

So get those cards and letter in to ESPN demanding that Ms. Monsalve's sartorial lead be followed by all ESPN anchors ASAP. After all, if they insist on broadcasting SC in high-def, we might as well push the technology as far as it will go.

Transactions Analysis: Matrix Glitch Edition

Between a wedding, a pair of job shifts, the Kentucky Derby, and just being a couple of old grumpfarts in general, we sorta missed a month's worth of our old standby feature, the analysis of transactions made in our fantasy baseball league. No bother. We're just playing a big fat ignore on anything that occurred more than 10 days ago and starting fresh, as we don't see the upshot of putting 300 moves through the blog and trying to analyze them all. So we'll just be looking at the stuff from the first two pages or so of the transaction log. Unless you haven't had a transaction that recently, in which case we'll just do your last one or two. Work for you Teddy? (El Angelo)

Agreed. Let us draw the curtain of charity across the earlier transactions. Lesson learned: my second wedding will NOT take place at the start of baseball season. (Teddy)

clemens the pederast

• Waived David Bush, SP, Milwaukee [4/28]
• Signed Fred Lewis, OF, San Fran; Waived Felix Pie, Nuttwister, Chicago (NL) [4/30]

After our signal failure at keeping up with our TA duties, I'm a little bit loathe to launch right in with a condemnation of a move that was clearly made at the margins of the Rocket Girls' roster.

But...

Not sure I like the Fred Lewis/Felix Pie swap. As noted by the titanically awesome Fire Joe Morgan, Lewis's BABIP to date this season is a cool .414. Last year no player with at least 100 ABs put up a BABIP that high. He is not going to keep this up. Which of course doesn't mean it's a bad idea to snag him--hot streaks are real things, and if the McCrough and McCreadys can get the benefit of Lewis's, so much the better for you. But that lottery ticket is not worth the cost of Pie in a keeper league, not when most analysts think Pie has some long-term value. Am I wrong here, Ang? (Teddy)

I don't disagree much, but in fairness, Pie is going absolutely nowhere with that squad, as Sweet Lou has elected to bury him and relive the Hee Seop Choi experience. For reasons unclear, it's not like they're trotting Mickey Mantle out there every day. Hell, they're not even trotting out Mookie Wilson. So cutting bait isn't really a poor idea, though I get the general gist of your idea that Fred Lewis isn't the long-term answer. Still, I guess theres's always the chance he could stay hot a la Xavier Nady and become trade bait. (Not-so-subtle message to all owners of league.)

What find more refreshing is not only the return to a team name that reflects pedophilia, but also that the last transactions allow us to use 'bush' and 'testicle' together. Yeah, I'm 7. (El Angelo)

Christmas Critters

• Signed Scott Downs, RP, Toronto [4/21]
• Signed Carlos Quentin, OF, Chicago (AL); Released J.D. Drew, Hacker, Boston [4/29]
• Released Downs; Signed Juan Pierre, OF, Los Angeles [5/2]

Carlos Quentin has been hitting the bejesus out of the ball, so it's tough to quibble with that signing. Despite his struggles with the bat, I can also understand the signing of Juan-for-five Pierre, as I still think that he's a worthwhile bench guy for someone willing to do their homework--spot start him against lousy catchers, or when your normal OFs are up against bad platoon matchups, and you can probably vulture 15 or so steals at minimal cost. His time as an everyday starter is done, though. (Teddy)

You certainly can't argue with the Quentin pickup, but Pierre strikes me as a colossal waste of time unless you're really desperate for steals, because he simply kills you in OBP and really doesn't help in the other counting stats besides maybe runs. Yes, you can platoon him well, but there's still the question of him being a nullity on the roster 2/3 of the time, which I think makes it a poor pickup. However, steals are the toughest thing to add through the waiver wire, so I can see the logic, even if I don't agree with it. (El Angelo)

Decatur Commies

• Signed Carlos Silva, SP, Seattle; Released Jeff Niemann, SP, Tampa [4/23]
• Released Orlando Hudson, 2B, Arizona [4/28]
• Signed Andre Ethier, OF, Los Angeles [5/1]

As the proud owner of both Phil Hughes's rib and Justin Verlander's soon-to-be-diagnosed labrum tear, I'm scuffling a bit to set up my rotation. Carlos Silva should be a good play in home starts, where Safeco Park will eat up some of his many FB in play. Andre Ethier is a straight hedge against the continued suckening of Andruw Jones, as Ethier is first in line to get Jones's ABs. (Teddy)

I'm not trying to pile it on my co-blogger here, but this just goes to show how fickle pitching can be. Arguably the owner of the best staff last year, he's lost pretty much all that mojo between injuries, trade, craptitude and general inertia. When your healthy 4th starter goes from Josh Beckett to Hiroki Kuroda, you know it might be a long season. That said, while I like both pickups as placeholders, my co-writer would be well advised to heed his own wisdom: starting Silva yesterday against the Yankees in the Bronx worked out roughly as badly as you should have expected. (El Angelo)

54°40' or Fight!

• Claimed Max Scherzer, SP, Arizona off waivers; Released Kurt Suzuki, C, Oakland [5/2]

Well, shit, like the rest of us I saw the SportsCenter clip of Scherzer striking out everyone in Houston up to and including Yao Ming, so I can't really argue with this signing. (Teddy)

Would it be an accomplishment to strike out Yao Ming? The guy's got an epic strike zone, one functioning leg, has never seen a fastball, and would probably approach an at bat like he was playing cricket. And he appears to be something of a wuss and would just mutter to himself confused on the way back to the dugout. Hell, I think it'd be tougher to strike out Mark Eaton. By contrast, Dikembe Mutombo would be impressive, as he poses the same physical challenges as Yao (very tall, confused about baseball, decrepit), but there's a fair chance he'd summons up the energy charge the mound and scare the ever-living shit out of the pitcher on the first inside slider, despite being 60 years old. Before I start rambling further into a Simmons-esque "shows I'd love to see", I'll wrap up by saying Kurt Suzuki blows. (El Angelo)

The Fighting Isaiahs

• Signed Aquilino Lopez, RP, Toronto, Eric Chavez, 3B, Oakland and Joel Zumaya, RP, Detroit; Released Juan Pierre, OF, Los Angeles, Mark Lowe, SP, Seattle and Shawn Hill, SP, Washington [4/25]
• Released Lopez; Signed Luis Castillo, 2B, New York (NL) [4/27]
• Released Castillo; Signed Santiago Casilla, RP, Oakland [4/28]

So I guess the question is this: Did the Unemployed Franchise Arsonists decide to cut Castillo for Casilla, or did they intend to pick up Casilla all along and just click the wrong button? Someone get the Daily News on this. (Teddy)

I'm going with intentional---Castillo went 3-for-5 on the 27th, and I could totally see Jake coming home shitfaced on a Sunday night, firing up the computer, seeing a second baseman had a nice night and picked him up, only to wake up the next morning and find out it was Luis Fricking Castillo and quickly try to destroy all evidence of the acquisition. But the TAs catch everything, unless it occurred in the first three weeks of this season. (El Angelo)

Frank the Tank

• Signed Josh Willingham, OF, Florida; Released Doug Brocail, RP, Houston [4/23]
• Signed Chad Gaudin, SP, Oakland; Released Jose Lopez, 2B, Seattle [4/24]
• Signed Matt Albers, RP, Baltimore and Greg Smith, SP, Oakland; Released Jon Garland, SP, Anaheim and Mark DeRosa, Jack of All Trades, Chicago (NL) [4/26]
• Signed Paul Maholm, SP, Pittsburgh; Released Hong Chih Kuo, SP, Los Angeles [4/27]

Just to get the substance out of the way quickly: Maholm's a nice signing; surprised Willingham was still there to be snagged; Mark DeRosa went to Penn, yada yada.

Now.

Doug Brocail was on a roster? Really? At various points the man has been traded for Jose Lima and Andujar Cedeno. Was Scott Sanders unavailable? I didn't know 1994 All-Star appearances was a scoring category in the league this year.

Aaaaand so forth. (Teddy)

When you say that you didn't realize Brocail was on a roster, did you mean major league or fantasy? Because he obviously shouldn't be anywhere near a fantasy squad unless you're playing in a NL Central only league, and he's only on the Astros because they're terrible. I will say that swapping Willingham for him is possibly the biggest gap in talent between two players in a single transaction in our league history, with other possible contenders being Scot calling up Tim Lincecum to take the place of Carlos Gomez last season and anytime an owner has dropped Armando Benitez. (El Angelo)

It's Enrico Palazzo

• Signed Mike Pelfrey, SP, New York (NL); Released Joaquin Benoit, RP, Texas [4/20]
• Added and dropped Jair Jurrgens despite him being on someone else's prospect list and someone else making the same mistake a week earlier. [5/2]
• Added and dropped Jair Jurrgens despite him being on someone else's prospect list and doing the same goddamn thing the day before. [5/3]
• Finished his beer. [5/4]

There's very little I can say to add to the majesty of that transaction summary, so I'll pass the mic to Ang. (Teddy)

I actually loved Darrin's excuse that he thought the computer broke so he picked up Jurrgens again anyway. The Pelphrey Train is an interesting one to ride; there's some latent talent in there, but if you start him against any NL team that has a middle of the order with power, you're gonna get punished because he's this year's Kirk Reuter. Somehow, he's the Mets' third starter and they're not in last. God bless the NL. (El Angelo)

Le Dupont Torkies

• Signed Jonathan Sanchez, SP, San Fran; Released Tom Gorzelanny, SP, Pittsburgh [4/26]
• Signed Aaron Cook, SP, Colorado and Jake Westbrook, SP (DL), Cleveland; Released Chris Ray, RP, Baltimore and Fernando Rodney, RP, Detroit [4/30]

It's time once again for America's third-favorite game show, Mid-Rotation Starter Roulette! Jon Sanchez continues to strike guys out at a nice clip, though he won't have much to add in the wins column (which is where the Torkies are weakest at this point) pitching in front of the Yomiuri Giants this season. Aaron Cook has been BABIP lucky to this point in the season--his BAA is down 50 points, despite no change in his K rate--though again, if you can ride that lucky streak, you might as well do it. A short leash would seem to be in order, though. And Jake Westbrook didn't cost anything but a DL slot, so why not? It all adds up to a bunch of short-term fixes, though if the Torkies stay near the top of the league another 6 weeks or so with these guys, they can look to make a trade for a real starter for the stretch run. (Teddy)

The 2006 Champs have a lot more faith in Colorado starters than most, but they're in second place now, so apparently they know something we don't. There's not much to say here beyond Teddy's pearls of wisdom, except to note that this team is in second place despite not having a starter that would merit even remote All-Star consideration. Yikes. (El Angelo)

Matsui's Fissure

• Signed Dionner Navarro, C, Tampa; Released Joe Crede, 3B, Chicago (AL) [4/30]
• Released Manny Acosta, RP, Atlanta [5/3]

Joe Crede is really hurt by the fact that this is an OBP league, not a BA league, and he's made expendable by the return from injury of Mike Lowell. I like the Dionner Navaro signing as cover for the injured Ratface Posada, as Navarro is just about the only available catcher who hasn't been conclusively proven to suck. (Teddy)

Navarro's actually better than a third of the catchers currently on starting rosters in the league, so kudos to the Anal Tears to jump on him. When I saw that Crede had been cut I had hoped it meant that Josh Fields had been called up. Sadly no, especially because he's hitting his weight in AAA. (El Angelo)

Presidential Timber

• Signed Ryan Church, OF, New York (NL); Released Corey Patterson, OF, Cincy [5/3]

OR





I have my suspicions, but I guess we'll all find out. Any thoughts from our resident Mets expert? (Teddy)

Somewhere in the middle, he's less St. John the Divine than your local half-empty on Sunday St. Adalbert's of Elmhurst. If he continues on this clip to hit 40 HRs this year, I will renounce all bad things I've ever said about Omar. Don't see it happening. Still, not a bad pickup as a spare part outfielder. (El Angelo)

The Spam Avengers

• Released Jack Cust, OF, Oakland [4/22]
• Signed and released Jair Jurgens when he realized someone else already had him on their prospect list. [4/23]
• Signed Boof! Bonser, SP, Minnesota [5/2]

This is an awful lot of fooferall over a man named after my wife's brand of moisturizer. (Teddy)

I'm more impressed you know your wife's moisturizer, unless we're going start tuning these TA's into postings about Teddy's auto-erotic functions. Given that I know he watched the Derby on Saturday, I'll just stop typing now. (El Angleo)

Wu Tang Financial

• Signed Johnny Damon, OF, New York (AL), Jesse Carlson, RP, Toronto and Armando Gallaraga, SP; Released Coco Crisp, OF, Boston, Aaron Heilman, RP, New York (NL) and Cla Meredith, RP, San Diego [4/27]
• Signed Aquilino Lopez, RP, Toronto; Released Barry Zito, SP, San Francisco [5/3]

We'd be remiss if we didn't lead with this, so that it is preserved for posterity: the LEAGUE-LEADING analysts have truly been nothin' to fuck wit' so far this year. Hell, even the recent injury to Tulo shouldn't hurt that much with Rafael Furcal waiting on the bench.

I guess the big news here from a neutral's perspective is the shivving of erstwhile fantasy stud Barry Zito. Barry's 2008 has gone only marginally better than Nick Zito's, with neither guy contending for any honor beyond Miss Congeniality. Presumably the Giants would love to follow WTF's approach and just cut bait on Zito; instead, they've chosen to make him the highest-paid middle reliever in baseball history by a factor of about 5. Not good times. (Teddy)

This isn't even close---Barry Zito's having a much better year than Nick. Nick has to deal with the fact that War Pass' scratch and injury took away his best horse and basically handed the Derby to Big Brown, his best prospect Aquarian dropped dead on him while working out and the fact that he has to kiss Marylou Whitney's old ass all summer just on the hope he'll make $500k for the year. Barry, by contrast, gets paid $16 million so long as he keeps breathing. What's his worst case scenario, he becomes the latter-day Mike Hampton? That don't suck. (El Angelo)

Goofy But True: The Boston Celtics Should Be Black America's Team

Are you a black American? Are you friends (or at least on casual nodding terms) with a black American? Then spread the word: black folk must support the Boston Celtics, or just come out and admit that to the world that they own a Wayne Newton album.

Yes, yes, I know. The Celtics? The team whose mascot and traditional fan base are each tiny drunken Irishmen? The team from the whitest large city in America? The team of Larry freaking Bird?

Yes. And here's why.

1. The Celtics are the Blackest Team in the 2008 Playoffs

"Blackness" is a slippery concept, especially in the context of athletics. "Black" basketball has often been associated with a high-tempo, offense-first, individualist mentality, despite scads of counter-examples both now and throughout the history of the post-integration NBA (about which, more later). But we're avoiding all that and characterizing the Celtics as the blackest team in a much simpler way: counting the number of black Americans on the team.

Along with Philly, the Celtics are one of only two teams in this year's playoffs with a black head coach and an all-black rotation (Brian Scalabrine is the only white guy on C's who plays at all, and he's 11-deep on the chart and hasn't gotten into a game yet in the playoffs this year). Every other team has at least one non-black guy in the rotation (Walton, Kirilenko, Nash, Dirk, Scola, Peja, Manu, Zaza, Turkoglu, Songaila, Calderon, Big Z), or a non-black coach (Flip Saunders).

Hell, the Lakers, who for years served as the unofficial team of black America, are running out the son of the whitest man in America (Luke Walton, son of Bill), a Euro (Pau Gasol), and a guy who speaks fluent Italian and yet is neither Euro nor in the waste disposal business (Kobe). Kareem and Magic aren't walking through that door, people. Time to adjust to the new reality.

2. The Celtics Are the Blackest Team in NBA History

For anybody who came of age in the '80s, the above statement no doubt seems like gibberish. What about the frontcourt of Bird and Kevin McHale, and the backcourt of Danny Ainge and . . . I dunno, Jerry Sichting? Well, those guys were around, no doubt. But look back beyond those guys, to the teams that created the Celtic mystique in the first place, and what do you find?

• In 1950, you find Celtic forward Chuck Cooper, the first black player ever drafted by an NBA team, and thus the first black player associated with an NBA team (the undrafted Earl Lloyd actually got into an NBA game before Cooper that following season, though only because his team started the season a day earlier that the Celtics)

• In 1964, you find the World Champion Celtics running out the first all-black starting five in NBA history, which included three future Hall of Famers in Bill Russell, Sam Jones, and K.C. Jones. This happens two years before Texas Western's all-black starting five famously wins the NCAA title over an all-white Kentucky squad.

• In 1967, you find the Celtics hiring the first black head coach in NBA history (Russell), who later that season also becomes the first black head coach to win an NBA title.

• In 1984, you find K.C. Jones coaching the team to another title, thus making the Celtics the only team to have won championships with two different black head coaches.

• In 1986, you find another Jones-led team putting up banner number 16 in the old Garden. No black head coach has won an NBA title since.

It's possible to go on by, say, listing the approximately three zillion black players who have had their numbers retired by the C's, but this is a blog post, not a novel. So know your history, know your lineups, and pull for black America's team to win title number 17 this year.

[Braces for comments . . .]

2008 Kentucky Derby Preview Part III: The Contenders

We now move to the better half of the field for this year's Derby. As you're going to read time and time again, this is the Most Open Kentucky Derby in Years. Maybe. I'll concede that any number of horses has a shot to hit the board. But to win? The only plausible winners from yesterday's list under most conceivable circumstances are Cowboy Cal and Big Brown, and only 4 or 5 from today's list have the attributes of a winner. While a lot of the smart-alecks in the field are saying it's either a romp by faves Big Brown or Colonel John or a Giacomo-style bomb, the truth is there are a few horses in the middle with nice credentials who will be a square price on the big day. Instead of just playing numbers, stay with the facts, the history, and you'll find a few horses that actually makes sense.

The other thing to tune out are the thousands of comments and opinions emanating from Churchill Downs about who looks "great", "on the muscle", "professional" and "chiseled". Ignoring that the media seems to try to describe horses as if they were judging a male stripping competition, remember that these are among the best 3 year olds in the nation. They had better look good. Disregard anyone that says their horse looks good. Do not, however, disregard any trainer saying he's less than satisfied with his horse or signs that a horse is sick or not looking sharp. Those clues are often signs for a horse that's over the top or just not ready to win the big one.

Enough with the introductions, let's start by looking at the name horses that make sense and will get bet, but just aren't good enough for various reasons:

Reputation Exceeds Talent

11. Court Vision. Also owned by IEAH Stables, the same connections as Big Brown, he's been touted for about six months as the Next Best Thing since his win in the Remsen in November. He's followed that up with a pair of tremendously mediocre third-place finishes, including his last in the Wood Memorial, where he wasn't able to close into suicidal fractions. He won't get as good a setup here as he got in that race. Also, the normally savvy Bill Mott is outfitting him with blinkers for the first time in this race with the hope it'll move him closer to the pace. This is akin to Willie Randolph tinkering with Carlos Beltran's swing right before Game 6 of the World Series.

10. Gayego. To answer the obvious question, no, I don't believe he's named after Mike Gallego by a spelling-challenged owner. He is proof that shipping off a synthetic surface to a dirt surface can work, as he left California to win the Arkansas Derby in front-running fashion. Given that Smarty Jones, Afleet Alex and Curlin all used Arkansas Derby wins to propel them to great 3yo seasons, shouldn't he be ranked higher. Well....no. His breeding screams sprinter, and his front-running style coupled with the 19 post is going to ensure he's on the front end, and it's hard to see him lasting the tenth furlong after expending so much energy early.

9. Tale of Ekati. He won the aforementioned Wood Memorial in a slooooooow time. He's intriguing in that he's nicely bred, comes from the barn of Barclay Tagg (trainer of 2003 Derby winner Funny Cide) and has nice experience; however, he was gasping for air at the end of the Wood, and now has to run an extra furlong. Tough to place him ahead of some of the others on this list.

The Problem Horses

8. Cool Coal Man. Conventional wisdom says to toss any horse from consideration that ran horribly in his last race, as no horse since Iron Liege in 1957 has won the Derby off a finish in his prep race worse than 4th. That's all fine and good, but this year we have the issue of horses who prepped for the Derby on a synthetic surface, which may not be where they do their best. Exhibit A on this list, the Fountain of Youth winner Cool Coal Man. He exited a solid-if-unspectacular win at Gulfstream with a horrendous 10th in the Blue Grass, with trainer Nick Zito using the Polytrack as an excuse. Prior to the post draw, there was every reason to think that he'd be an intriguing longshot at a price to hit the board, given his breeding is perfect for the race. However, he drew the 1-hole, meaning he'll have to be sent out of the gate and caught in a speed duel. Huge downgrade. So let's instead turn to....

7. Pyro. ...the badly beaten favorite in the Blue Grass. He was at the top of everyone's Derby list based on his two stakes wins this year and his powerful and fast 2nds to War Pass last year. He promptly threw all of that into question with a back-of-the-pack finish in the Blue Grass, that his trainer wants to dismiss as a Polytrack fluke. Well, maybe. It's disturbing though that he didn't pick up his feet at all. If he had run a little and just not fired his best shot like Street Sense last year, then it'd be easy to ignore. But can you ignore a race he got absolutely nothing out of? To top it off, he'll be the 3rd choice at around 6-1, which is tough to accept when he hasn't run a fast race this year. He should be closing late, but you have to wonder if he'll be fit and ready enough to win.

6. Denis of Cork. In contrast to the last two horses, this guy flopped in his last race mostly because his owner pulled a mid-80's Steinbrenner and audibled out of a more apt prep race into the Illinois Derby, where he promptly finished out of the money. So why is he ranked so high? Simply based on the fact that while everyone's talking about how much potential Big Brown has shown (rightly so), and the stretch drive runs of Pyro, this guy's been the other visually impressive beast on the track, and has a nice win at Churchill. If you buy the theory that the track at the Illinois Derby was speed-favoring (disputable but possible), he suddenly looks a lot more interesting and his last race is a bit more excusable. The problem besides his clunker last out is that this will only be his 5th race, and history shows that's not enough to win. Tough to like to win the race, but definitely playable in exotic wagers.

The Synthetic Wonders

5. Adriano. This supremely well-bred has had a nice career on the grass until trying synthetics in the Lanes End and winning handily. He merits good consideration because he comes from an underrated trainer (Graham Motion), should like Churchill's dirt, and oozes upside. (Jay Bilas would be all over this horse.) What's wrong then? Three major concerns. First, it wasn't until about a week or two ago that they decided they were going to try the Derby at all, as Motion thought he was a pure grass horse and didn't fit in the Derby. It's tough to like that eleventh-hour switch, and query whether the trainer's really calling the shots here. Second, he hasn't prepped for the race since the Lanes End six weeks out, a big no-no. And finally, his prior dirt race in Florida, to be frank, sucked. He may just be a Polytrack freak, but there's also good reason to think he may be for real.

4. Colonel John. The California champion comes East after 6 wonderful races out West...all on synthetic. We delved into this on the first post in the series, but it's next to impossible to know how this guy's going to run. Will he love dirt? Hate it? Accept it? His workout over the Churchill strip this week was good, but there are plenty of workout wonders that never show up on the track. I like his connections and his breeding screams Derby Winner but can't accept him as the pick at 3-1 odds.

3. Monba. Super trainer Todd Pletcher was the apple of everyone's eye the last two years at the Derby and then promptly laid goose eggs with only Bluegrass Cat showing up in 2006. After a pretty poor 7 months starting in late August, his stable has turned it around, and here's his best shot for this season. A wise-guy pick by a lot of people at the beginning of the year off his tough-trip 4th in the Cash Call Futurity, he destroyed everyone's hopes with a dead-last finish in the Fountain of Youth in his first start this year, beaten almost 40 lengths. He rebounded with a nice win in the Blue Grass....you guessed it, over Polytrack. What separates him from the other two horses is that he has a pair of wins over dirt surfaces already, and his Florida loss is somewhat excusable as he gashed his leg open at the beginning of the race. His breeding not only screams dirt, he's out of Maria's Mon, who already produced a Derby winner (Monarchos) and his damsire Easy Goer could run all day. Still, he's only got 2 starts this year (and 5 total--not quite the foundation you'd like for a brief 2008 prep schedule) and hasn't run that fast, which has to relegate him just a hair behind two others.

The Sleeper

2. Visionaire. He's got the same issues that Pyro and Cool Coal Man do in that he ran 5th in his final prep, the Blue Grass. The huge difference? He actually ran hard and made a strong move in the race, only to be wide on both turns and finishing fairly well over a surface he probably didn't like. He's trained by Michael Matz, the hero of the Barbaro tale, who took the Polytrack route to keep his horse in sound shape, but unlike Pyro and Cool Coal Man, it's clear he wasn't trying to win the race but was trying to get a good solid race in him so the horse could peak in the Derby. He's got the requisite stakes win, albeit over a weak field in the Gotham, and his breeding, while unconventional for the distance, isn't god-awful. And he'll be one of the longer shots on the board. If you're going to excuse Pyro's last by taking him at 6-1, you have to upgrade this guy, who ran eons better than Pyro, and will be five times the price.

The Pick

1. Z Fortune. Let's go over the list of qualifications that you need to be a Derby winner once again. You need to have raced at age 2, 3 or more races at age 3, 5+ starts lifetime, stakes experience, distance experience, a sharp prep, a relatively quick race, breeding that suggests you can get the distance, and the recency of running in one of the final preps. This guy qualifies on all counts. To top it off, he's trained by Steve Asmussen of Curlin fame, actually ran better than his number in his last race suggests because of a wide trip, and gets the services of a fine jockey in Robby Albarado. Plus, he'll be a minimum of 15-1, as he's being ignored by everyone. I'm not saying you should go bet him with both fists, but he's the most likely winner in my mind and my pick for the 2008 Derby.

Good luck to everyone!