Daily Kentucky Derby Hype Meme: Eskendereya's Withdrawal

We're generally pretty harsh on the media making mountains of either molehills or irrelevant topics, so for today's Hype Meme, we're going to give credit where it's due: the vast majority of articles on the Derby in the last 24 hours have been about morning line favorite Eskendereya being declared from the race with an injury. This is a pretty big story--it's not only the 2nd straight year that the favorite isn't going to run in the race due to a last minute injury (I Want Revenge scratched last year 9 hours before the Derby), but it has a cascade effect on every other horse's odds. Lookin at Lucky and Sidney's Candy are now going to be solid favorites, and longshots like Homeboykris and Paddy O'Prado won't be as long odds as they would have been had Eskendereya sucked in 30% of the wagering.

While we give the press credit for giving the story the attention it deserves, we can't help but note that they're also using the scratch to dig up storylines that we already noted were overhyped. In this piece, not only does the Times tell the impact of Eskendereya's scratch on the race, they manage to get in shots at Pletcher and Zayat for their Derby record and bankruptcy. The Associated Press did exactly the same thing. Even the Derby's website went a bit over the top in needling Pletcher for his losing streak.

We were going to give this our first actual 1 out of 10 on the Hype Scale, but the media's insistence on lambasting Pletcher and Zayat when they're down has made us re-think this. For now then, let's give it a 2.5, and hope they keep it up.

Daily Kentucky Derby Hype Meme: (Semi) Famous People

The Kentucky Derby is a horse race in Kentucky.

We recognize that our readers are almost certainly aware of that particular datum. Regardless, we feel that it's important to point out, because both the Derby organizers and surrounding community are going pretty far out of their way to hype the idea that the Derby is also a celebrity event.

For example, the Derby's own website has an entire section devoted to the history of celebrity sightings at Churchill Downs, which for some reason tries to plug the continued vitality of the race's celebrity presence by featuring the leering, death's-head visage of LeAnne Rimes on its splash page. Louisville's hometown paper (which also tries, we feel counterproductively, to geographically associate itself with "Southern Indiana") also goes out of its way to pimp the celebrity angle, splashing a banner headline about En Vogue's Derby week performance.

These efforts to convert the Derby into a celebrity event demean both the race and the notional "celebrities" in question. Horse racing is no longer as popular as it once was in the U.S., and attempts to prove the contrary by crowing on about a Nick Lachey appearance really only end up reinforcing the perception of racing's decline.

The Derby needs to have the courage of its convictions. These are the finest trained, most exactingly bred three year old horses in the nation, if not the world. They are fast and powerful and even pretty to look at. So just show us the damn horses, and leave LeAnne and En Vogue in the barn, where they so richly deserve to be. This is not the Golden Globes in L.A. This is a horse race in Kentucky. Cover it accordingly.

Any "story" combining multiple marginal celebrities with a chronicle of the social hierarchy of Southern Indiana is going to rank very high on any sort of B.S. list. So let's give this meme a 9.5, with the perfect 10 averted only because we need to leave room in case the media thinks of anything even stupider once the race draws near.

Daily Kentucky Derby Hype Meme: Who Wants to Buy the Favorite?

A frequent topic of coverage for the Derby are the horses' owners, how they got there, what they do, and why they're into racing. Normally the owner of a horse is only a worthy topic of conversation if there's a good story involved. Think back to Alex's Lemonade Stand, Frances Genter, or even the irrascible Mike Pegram; all involved characters or human interest stories. We don't love these stories because they're not really relevant to the race, but we recognize that lots of people who aren't big sports fans do care. Otherwise, the Olympics wouldn't get ratings.

With that in mind, let's turn to the owner of this year's big favorite Eskendereya, Mr. Ahmen Zayat, owner of Zayat Stables. Zayat is hardly a stranger to the Derby--he owned last year's runner up Pioneerofthe Nile, our pick to win the 2008 Derby, Z Fortune, and a few other longshots. We've never met him, know very little about him other than he spends a lot of money on horses, and have no opinion on him as a businessman or human being.

What we do know is that Zayat Stables has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy. What's more is that as part of his reorganization plan, Zayat has stated he intends to sell Eskendereya at the end of the year to pay off the sizable debts he owes. Against all odds, this has started to pick up steam as a story, and will no doubt reach a crescendo next week. After all, the press loved the stories about the principals of IEAH being involved stock scams, so why wouldn't they love stories about the owner of the Derby favorite (who's Middle Eastern, to top it off) going bankrupt and being forced to sell his prized horse?

As the linked article shows (and anyone with a PACER account can learn_, it is not abnormal for a bankrupt party to state its assets and how it intends to dispose of them. But, even as a pair of attorneys, we cannot say we're remotely interested in how this pans out. Win or lose the Derby, there's about a 90% chance that Eskendereya will not race past this year and Zayat would have sold all or part of him to another breeding stable. The fact that his farm is insolvent doesn't change this fact.

Moreover, the Chapter 11 proceeding really has no bearing on the race itself. Eskendereya is not being trained or operated differently because his owner is in a financial pickle. He's not going to be scratched to be sold on Friday morning. To the contrary, if anything, this gives the connections one more reason to push for the Derby title, because if he wins, he'll be worth at least $10 million to a breeder, even in this depressed stallion market.

We were prepared to give this story a 6 based on its irrelevancy, but upon further reflection, legal tales generally and bankruptcy stories specifically are about as boring as you can find. We use sports to escape from the humdrum of legal problems and financial concerns, not to tell us more about it. Thus, let's give it a 25% bump to 7.5 on the BS Scale.

Daily Kentucky Derby Hype Meme: Todd Pletcher Can't Win the Kentucky Derby

By any measure, the top trainer of the past decade was Todd Pletcher. In the period from 2000 to 2009, he won the Eclipse Award for best trainer four times (2004 - 2007), won 70 Grade 1 races, including 3 Breeders Cup races, was the leading trainer at Saratoga 5 times, and trained eight horses that won Eclipse Awards. He has big won with sprinters (Trippi, Speightstown), young colts (Proud Accolade, More Than Ready), young fillies (Marylebone), 3yo colts (Flower Alley, Any Given Saturday, Bluegrass Cat), 3yo fillies (Rags to Riches, Ashado, Panty Raid), older males (Left Bank, Lawyer Ron), older females (Ashado once again, Fleet Indian), turf males (English Channel, Red Giant), and turf females (Wait a While, Honey Ryder). A whopping eight of those horses have won Eclipse Awards. And despite all that success, there's only one thing you'll hear over and over again in the next few weeks:

Todd Pletcher can't win the Kentucky Derby.

This meme is going to be one of the big stories this year because Pletcher comes into this year's Derby armed with at least five entrants including the huge favorite, Eskendereya, intriguing price players Super Saver and Mission Impazible, and pace factors Rule and Discreetly Mine. It would be great if you could eliminate 25% of the horses simply because Todd Pletcher trains them. There are three enormous problems with this meme, however.

Problem #1: Pletcher hasn't had a horse yet that should have won the Kentucky Derby.

Steve Crist masterfully discussed this in his blog (side note: we had written about 2/3 of this post when his went up), but Todd Pletcher's 0-for-24 mark--which is really 0-for-9, because the 24 horses have run in 9 Derbies--is mostly because he's run rank longshots. Let's go a step beyond Mr. Crist and look a little more closely at the 24 entrants that he's had so far.

2000

• Impeachment (3rd, 6-1, part of an entry). Would have been 30-1 had he not been part of the entry, and fit the bill perfectly of a clunk-up closer. Not a bad showing.
• More Than Ready (4th, 11-1). The prior year's 2yo sensation, he never had the breeding to go 10 furlongs
• Trippi (11th, 6-1, part of an entry). A crackerjack sprinter that would go on to have a nice career at races under a mile. This was apparent from Day One, but the owners wanted to run him anyway.
• Graeme Hall (19th, 46-1). This front-runner shocked the Arkansas Derby at 17-1 and was rightly ignored as a front-runner in the Derby.

2001

• Invisible Ink (2nd, 55-1). A personal favorite, because I picked the winner of this Derby (Monarchos) and this guy at overlaid odds. He lacked a stakes win coming in and was a decent enough horse, but he ran in the same Derby as Monarchos, Point Given, and Congaree. He deserved to be a price and outran his odds.
  
• Balto Star (14th, 8-1). A front runner with sprinter's speed in a race with a series of intractable frontrunners (Millenium Wind, Songandaprayer, Keats). His odds were wrong, plain and simple. This guy never had a shot.
  

2002

• Wild Horses (18th, 58-1). Pure vanity entry by the owner. Can't hold it against Pletcher.
  

2004

• Limehouse (4th, 41-1). This Derby's a bit of a tough one to rate because of the thunderstorm about 40 minutes before the race that made it a pea soup. Still, this guy won graded stakes races as a 2, 3 and 4 year old and clunked up to complete the superfecta behind two better horses (Smarty Jones & Lion Heart) and a fair closer (Imperialism). Not a bad job here by Todd.
  
• Pollard's Vision (17th, 24-1). Upset winner of the Illinois Derby had nothing in the Kentucky Derby. With Graeme Hall and Balto Star, he's the 3rd horse who was an upset winner in a prep race that did nothing in the Derby.
  

2005

• Flower Alley (9th, 41-1). Make that four horses: he won the Lane's End. He actually turned into a good horse, winning the Travers and Jim Dandy later that year and finishing 2nd in the Breeders Cup Classic.
  
• Coin Silver (12th, 38-1). And here's #5: the upset winner of the Lexington.
  
• Bandini (19th, 7-1). Arguably the best horse Pletcher has run in the Derby. Nobody knows why he ran next to last in a race where the exacta was comprised of Giacomo (50-1) and Closing Argument (71-1). He was never the same after the Derby.
  

2006

• Bluegrass Cat (2nd, 30-1). Many people liked this horse, and he rewarded them with a fat mutuel behind Barbaro. Won the Haskell later that year.
• Keyed Entry (20th, 29-1). A rank sprinter, nobody's quite sure why this horse was entered. I'll blame the owners.

2007

• Circular Quay (6th, 11-1). We picked this guy to run seventh, so nice job, Todd.
  
• Any Given Saturday (8th, 13-1). We liked this guy in 2007, and he won the Haskell later that year. He for whatever reason wasn't ready on Derby Day.
  
• Sam P. (9th, 43-1). A longshot when he entered the race, he only won 3 of 26 races in his career.
  
• Scat Daddy (18th, 7-1). Wildly overbet given his breeding and lack of fast races. Yeah he was 7-1, but few handicappers liked him.
  
• Cowtown Cat (20th, 20-1). #6 on the list of upset prep winners that Pletcher ran in the Derby and flopped.
  

2008

• Cowboy Cal (9th, 39-1). Turf horse that ran 2nd in the Blue Grass only because it was on synthetic. I think this was his last race on dirt.
  
• Monba (20th, 31-1). Upset Prep Winner #7.
  

2009

• Join in the Dance (7th, 51-1). Pure pacesetter for Pletcher's other horses, who held on for 7th in the mud.
  
• Dunkirk (11th, 5-1). A fairly polarizing horse going into the race; many didn't like him because of the Curse of Apollo, but because Quality Road and I Want Revenge didn't make it into the gate, he was thrust into 2nd choice status. Backed up his support with a good 2nd in the Belmont next out, but was overbet here.
  
• Advice (13th, 49-1). Upset Prep Winner #8, he won the Lexington two weeks prior.

So breaking that down, eight of the horses entered were thrown to the wolves solely because they won their prep races against all odds (which speaks to Pletcher's training ability). On top of that, we have the usual vanity entries and no-hopers that probably weren't his call. In short, Pletcher's really being crucified because four horses didn't win the Derby: Bandini, Scat Daddy, Any Given Saturday and Dunkirk. We can't make excuses for him, but when you shrink it to 0-for-4 with a chance, suddenly it doesn't look so bad.

Problem #2: We've done and disproven this meme before.

Up until June 2007, the meme wasn't "Pletcher can't win the Derby", it's "Pletcher can't win Triple Crown races." Then what happened? Rags to Riches won the Belmont, being the first filly to win the race in a century. Monkey off his back, right? Nope, now the media's just moved the goalposts.

Additionally, we've seen the media do this with other top trainers. D. Wayne Lukas was crucified for years for being unable to win a Triple Crown race; he then won 13. Shug McGaughey was ridiculed for not being able to win a Triple Crown race; Easy Goer took care of that in 1989. Bobby Frankel was attacked for not winning a Triple Crown or Breeders Cup race; he won the 2003 Belmont when he got Empire Maker, the best horse he ever trained. Which brings us to...

Problem #3: This has nothing to do with this year's Derby.

Once McGaughey and Lukas got their best horses, they won the big race with them. And Pletcher has by far his best Derby prospect ever this year in Eskendereya. He's perfectly bred for the distance. He's the fastest horse. He's prepped well and is training well. He has a top jockey. And he has good ratable speed. This doesn't mean he can't lose--Point Given and Empire Maker had similar credentials and lost. But it does mean that this is Pletcher's best shot and really, probably only the 4th or 5th horse he's run in the Derby that could be expected to finish in the money. If Eskendereya loses, it won't be because Todd Pletcher was his trainer; it will be because someone was better on May 1st or he just had a bad day.

So how do we rank this meme? The trainer's competency is race-related, but the issue and conclusion are being handled poorly. We'll give this a solid 5, because we know the media can and will do much worse.

Quasi-New Feature: The Daily Kentucky Derby Hype Meme

Over the past three years, we've run the Daily Super Bowl Hype Meme to deconstruct and mock the media's overcoverage of stories, ledes and runs irrelevant to the actual playing of the Super Bowl. In just the past Super Bowl, we lambasted coverage about the Archie Manning's bloodlines, impending NFL labor crisis, and a guy who wasn't even playing in the game.

When we began to think about our annual Kentucky Derby coverage, it hit us that the Derby is even more ripe for a Hype Meme analysis. Consider the following:

• The Kentucky Derby is nicknamed "the most exciting two minutes in sports" for a simple reason: the entire race takes somewhere between 119 and 125 seconds. Everything before it is prelude; the event itself lasts about as long as a Nick Johnson at bat. This is similar to the Super Bowl, where there are two weeks to prepare for a 3-hour game.

• The main participants in the Kentucky Derby are horses, and as equines, do not really lend themselves to interviews. This means that the media...

• ...has to go to other sources for stories. This includes people that are completely relevant (trainers, jockeys), partially relevant (owners, breeders) and completely irrelevant (celebrities, touts). And because most trainers and jockeys are putting on a brave face, playing possum, or both, you're unlikely to get much of use out of them concerning the race itself.

• NBC, newspapers and other forms of the media see the Kentucky Derby as pure Americana, which means we're likely to get violin-laden montages like you'd find in the Olympics and feel-good stories about the connections of a horse. We're not going to say they have no place in the coverage--a good story is a good story--but when they dominate the media landscape, they're overbearing.

• Horse racing has become a niche sport, meaning the public understands it broadly but not in a way that lends itself to more than perfunctory analysis. While everyone knows what batting average, interceptions and assists are, few know what a Beyer Speed Figure is or what constitutes a "fast pace" for a race. This keeps the media from doing anything beyond Racing 101 discussion in the mass press, because anything else will likely be lost on the audience.

• Lastly, the mainstream media, in an effort to save money, has done away with the traditional "horse racing beat". This means that the few writers or personalities that still cover racing (we're looking at...you, Joe Drape and Hank Goldberg) know this is their one week of the year to shine and will present whatever piece will be the most attention grabbing. Often, this bears no relation to the race itself.
  

As such, for the next few days, we'll be running the Daily Kentucky Derby Hype Meme, picking a story a day that the media has grabbed a hold of and overanalyzed. We'll assign a 1-10 rating, with a 1 being awarded to a detailed analysis of how the presence of multiple speed horses effects the chances of Sidney's Candy, and with a 10 being awarded to yet another a maudlin reminiscence of Barbaro.

We hope that we'll get a lot of insightful articles regarding the strategies of the trainers, pedigree analysis and the strengths and weaknesses of the horses. But we're not optimistic.

Memes at a Glance:

4/21: Exaggerating Pletcher's 0-'fer
4/22: The Bankruptcy of the Favorite's Owners
4/23: The Leering, Death's Head Visage of LeAnne Rimes
4/26: Eskanderya Scratches

Transactions Analysis: Tax Day Edition

Yes, it's time again for the most wonderful day of the year: the day when all you hardworking people out there pay the salaries of mid-level bureaucrats like myself (and the day on which the GRBG re-launches its TA series). I'd ordinarily include a longer, more elaborate run-up to the year's first in-season TA, but I need to finish this off real quick and get back to sucking on that golden teat. (Teddy)

I like that we're making a Tax-Day TA a ritual because it excuses spending time on depressing subjects like your finances for the eternal hope that is your fantasy baseball team. In related news, for the first time ever, I've filed for an extension to file my taxes, because I couldn't get my shit together in time for today's deadline. This is probably because I spent the better part of the last two weeks drafting baseball players and writing league previews. The things we do for you kids... (El Angelo)

Suck It Silver

Signed: Rafael Betancourt (RP, CLE), Vernon Wells (OF, TOR)

Promoted: Jason Heyward (OF, ATL) from prospect list

If it ain't broke, don't fix it (or at least limit yourself to a moderate indulgence in your Blue Jay fetish). Not much to quarrel with here, especially since Vernon Wells seems to have found a new source of whatever bovine growth hormone he was on during his career years a few seasons back. (Teddy)

Part of the reason for the availability of roster spots is that Aaron Hill and Joe Blanton are now on the DL for at least the rest of the month. None of these three players address what the team loses in Hill, because hard-hitting 2B's aren't easily available. I suppose Betancourt nominally takes Blanton's place on the pitching side of the ledger, but unless I missed something, Raffy ain't fat, scruffy and full of lima beans. (El Angelo)

Duck-Duck-Duck-Fuke

[Squadoosh]

I guess the same reasoning applies here, though opting for total passivity might amount to too little of a good thing. (Teddy)

Yet another good start for Will's team, who's starting to resemble the Denver Broncos of the Wankdorf league--good 2 months to start, and an inexorable tail-off. It keeps you out of the basement, but also means they need to keep their eyes open for trouble around Mother's Day. (El Angelo)

The Revenge Society

Signed: Austin Jackson (OF, DET)

Third verse, same as the first. Jesus, I'm getting pre-emptively self-conscious over the length of my transactions list. I'm either trying too hard or just drafted like an idiot.

It's worth noting that it must be that none of these teams are facing early season injury issues, as we're not even seeing much in the way of roster top-offs using slots freed up by DL'd draftees. (Teddy)

Yeah, besides the Hill injury, Teddy's right. It's also worth noting that no team has played 10 games yet. Interesting side project I might take on this year: marking everyone's status and standings once a week, and publish the results/trends at the end. I'm curious to see if April success actually means anything. (El Angelo)

Jeters Never Prosper

Signed: Maicier Izturis (IF, LAA); Juan Rivera (OF, LAA); Josh Outman (P, OAK); Dallas Braden (SP, OAK); Casey McGehee (2B/3B, MIL)

Waived: Mike Adams (RP, SD); Izturis; Rivera.

The Captain Blasphemers leaned pretty far to the left coast in their initial moves, picking up about half of the A.L. West before recoiling in horror from the offensive talent in that group. Given the apparent weakness of the SEA and LAA offenses this year, I like the idea of scooping all available OAK pitchers, and Casey McGehee looks a lot more playable with 2B eligibility. Of course, that same weakness made the Izturis and Rivera pickups iffy, but those were rectified pretty quickly. (Teddy)

Casey McGehee is the answer as to why Milwaukee won't compete this year--if he's at the hot corner, you're in a lot of trouble against the Reds, let alone the Cardinals. That said, there are far worse placeholders for 2B, like say, Kelly Johnson. (El Angelo)

Le Dupont Torkies

Signed: Kelvim Escobar (SP-DL, NYM); JC Romero (RP-DL, PHI); Matt LaPorta (1B/OF, CLE); Delmon Young (OF, MIN); Sean Rodriguez (OF, TB); John Baker (C, FLA); Jose Guillen (OF, KC); Pat Neshek (PPP, MIN)

Waived: Brandon Wood (3B, LAA); Baker; LaPorta; Escobar

Here we go. LDT engaged in their usual early-season DL stash shenanigans, betting that once healthy, Kelvim Escobar will be better than John Maine and JC Romero will be better than Brad Lidge. Those are pretty sensible bets, honestly. Homegrown injuries forced Escobar back into the pool; he could turn out to be a useful piece for somebody with the time and DL space to wait for him.

I'd also like to note that the Jose Guillen pickup, combined with my grab of Scott Podsednik, means that the entire Royals OF is owned in our league. That almost has to be a first.

Finally: Pat Neshek is back! The GRBG wishes many happy returns to the former Pewter Parachute winner. (Teddy)

The last time you could rationally expect the entire Royals OF to be owned was 1999, when it consisted of Carlos Beltran, Johnny Damon and Jermaine Dye. I was trying to figure out how the hell a team with that outfield and a healthy (and quite productive) Mike Sweeney at DH went 67-95, then saw their starting infield included Rey-Rey Sanchez, Jeremy Giambi, and Carlos Meet The Febles. That could explain a lot of losing.

What I do like is Tucker's pro-active approach to improving a hitting roster that's squarely middle of the pack to start the season. No, not all of the group of Baker, Young, Rodriguez and LaPorta will pan out, but at least 1 will, and knowing Tucker's luck, 2 will probably be quite good. There isn't a horrible risk in that quartet, and what's the downside--a lost roster spot? Nice set of moves. (El Angelo)

The Situation Room

Signed: Chris Getz (2B, KC); Tim Wood (RP, FLA); Chris Young (OF, ARI)

Waived: Kelly Johnson (2d Round, ATL); Ross Ohlendorf (SP, PIT); Jason Hammel (SP, COL)

Not 12 hours after Kelly Johnson was cut, he was featured on the front page of the Yahoo! fantasy website as an underrated fantasy 2B. There appears to be a web-wide conspiracy to make Ang feel bad about any Johnson-related actions he takes.

Also, Chris Getz ranks slightly behind Bernard Goetz on my list of productive fantasy baseball players. (Teddy)

Somehow my entire 2B strategy has been lost in the mocking of these pickups. Allow me to explain. Gordon Beckham is going to be my 2B for the year, but he wasn't eligible to play the spot until last Sunday. Ergo, the need for placeholders. I was goaded into Kelly Johnson at the draft by Tucker, Jake, and Captain Lawrence. That lasted one game, then came Getz, which was only because he can ran. 3 steals later, he's bench fodder, and Beckham's got the spot locked up. Of course, my 3B options are shitty (Blake or Headley), but that's the reason for the moves. In the move that Teddy didn't address, is there any actual chance that Chris Young has finally figured his shit out? (El Angelo)

Gowanus Superfunders

Signed: Joey Devine (RP-DL, OAK); Jim Johnson (RP, BAL); Carlos Gomez (OF, MIL); Jim Thome (1B, MIN); Daric Barton (1B, OAK); Jeremy Affeldt (RP, SF); Scott Podsednik (OF, KC); Gio Gonzalez (SP, OAK)

Waived: Sean Rodriguez (OF, TB); Brandon League (RP, SEA); Thome; Affeldt; Devine.

Hey, so, my entire brand new, high round pitching staff sucks. That's cool. Also, I managed to run out of DL slots 6 days into the season. So this is going well. I confidently anticipate that Ryan Howard will die of syphillis by the end of the month.

I'm not proud of the Podsednik pickup, but with Brian Roberts and Carlos Gonzalez both hurt, I need absolutely any source of steals I can get. (Teddy)

Steals rarely "come into the league", so you have to take them where you can get them. That said, Podsednik, is one step above Kimera Bartee on the rung of one-category players. Even guys like Julio Borbon at least walk a little. I'm a little more confused about the Daric Barton pickup. First base is not a shallow position and you already have Ryan Howard and Mark Reynolds. Yes, I know you're hurting what with Lawrence Pissfuck Jones and Beltran being hurt, but was this guy the best option out there for the DH slot? (El Angelo)

Wu Tang Financial

Signed: Clint Barmes (MI, COL); Mike Adams (RP, SD); Mike Leake (SP, CIN)

Waived: Bud Norris (SP, HOU)

Interesting--usually Buds go in and Leakes come out. That's a time-honored tradition that I'm not sure that WTF is wise to buck. Best of British luck, though, because this will revolutionize leisure time if it works. (Teddy)

I'm hoping that Jon knows something about Leake that wasn't obvious in his first start, when he walked seven Cubs and had one wild pitch against 5 strikeouts. Keeping that up will not keep you in the Reds rotation. On second thought, given General Dusty's proclivity for shredding young labrums, this might be a good thing. (El Angelo)

pastywhite tyrones

Signed: Alfredo Aceves (RP, NYY); CJ Wilson (SP, TEX)(x2); Garrett Jones (OF, PIT); Miguel Olivo (C, COL); Scott Rolen (3B, TOR)

Waived: George Sherrill (RP, LAD); Wilson (x1); Brandon Inge (3B, DET); Joel Pineiro (SP, LAA); AJ BadPolishPerson (C, CHW); Jose Lopez (IF, SEA)

This is rare, so bask in it: I like most of these pickups. Garrett Jones is a Russ Branyan-type TTO hitter, and has the chance to put up some interesting numbers in the middle of PIT's order. Alfredo Aceves is probably the second-best reliever on the Yankees, even though Joba eats up more attention and cheeseburgers.

The one quibble I have is with the Joel Pineiro cut; even though he has outperformed his peripherals for a couple of years now, he's going to get to face some shaky offenses in big ballparks out in the A.L. West. I think he's playable. Then again, my staff ERA is currently over 5.00, so I'm probably not the guy to judge. (Teddy)

I actually agree with all of my co-author's points, and will go a step further to endorse the pickup of CJ Wilson as well, who might be closing if they decide Neftali Feliz belongs in the rotation. Nice swag. (El Angelo)

The Little Green One

Signed: Alex Gordon (3B-DL, KC); Michael “Bad to” Wuertz (RP, SD); Clay-TON Ree-SHARD (LW, MTL); Kenshin Kawakami (Motorbike, ATL); Baked Zito (SP, SF); The Rentasuck (SS, SF); Carl "The Truth" Pavano (SP, CLE)

Waived: Brett Myers (Asshole, HOU); Ryan Rowland-Smith (SP, SEA); Richard.

Very much the pupu platter for the Marvins. Nothing wrong with the hope-springs-eternal DL stash of Alex Gordon, and Barry Zito might finally be settling in as a useful mid-rotation guy in SF as people focus more on his performance and less on the absurdity of his contract. But lining up to grab draft-day punchline Mike Wuertz seems questionable, and signing up for voluntary exposure to the Carl Pavano Experience seems borderline masochistic. I recognize the symptoms of rushing all hands on deck to man the pumps, and that can't be a good feeling this early on. (Teddy)

These are just like Tucker's series of savvy moves, except the exact opposite. About the only one I can sign off on is Gordon, who's at least mildly interesting as a post-hype sleeper, but I think he's pretty affirmatively shown that his upside is Casey Blake. But I mean really, where the hell are Pavano and Zito taking you to, outside of Montepulciano (left)? (El Angelo)

Enrico Palazzo

Signed: Jake Westbrook (SP, CLE); Luke Hochevar (SP, KC); Joel Zumaya (RP, DET); Benji Molina (C)

Four guys in, no guys out usually means major injury problems. Sure enough, EP has most of his starting bullpen and his starting catcher on the DL at the moment. Given the utter lack of depth out there at those positions, the team's attempt to return to respectability is off to a rough start (though through no fault of their own). (Teddy)

This is also roughly what torpedoed these guys early last year. I do like the Hochevar and Zumaya flyer pick ups, since both guys could throw hard, play in a shitty division, and could present some upside. I presume Jake Westbrook is only here because Andrew's cat stepped on the computer in the middle of the night and accidentally picked him up. (El Angelo)

The Spam Avengers

Signed: Andy Pettitte (SP, NYY); Jose Mijares (RP, MIN); Scott Sizemore (Finish your drink); Kelly Johnson (2B, ATL); Jeremy Bonderman (SP, DET)

Waived: John Maine (P, NYM); Mijares; Sizemore


KEL-LY JOHN-SON [clap clap clapclapclap], KEL-LY JOHN-SON [clap clap clapclapclap]. (Teddy)

Kelly's well on his way to winning this year's Pewter Parachute, which will be the first trophy he's won since Tee Ball. (El Angelo)

Season Preview: The Aggregate Predictions

In the past years we've done previews, we've also done predictions. In 2007, Teddy and I did something of an ad hoc prediction of where we thought everyone would finish. As we noted later, we were right about 2/3 of the time, that is, within an acceptable margin of error.

After taking off 2008 so Teddy could get married, we resumed predictions last year with the assistance of PECOTA. This system went to shit: the teams that finished 1-2-3-4-5 were predicted to finish 11-12-6-5-10. Shockingly, we have chosen to not revisit that method.

This year, rather than just announce from Mount Gowanus how we think the league is going to wind up, we've instead taken a third approach: asking other members for their predictions, and doing a tally, AP-poll style. We received 8 responses, which included 2 that were computer-influenced and one that was taken "off the top of my head."

Our hope is that the Wisdom of the Crowds will produce something resembling order. What is produced is four distinct tiers: contenders to win, contenders for the money, possibilities for the money, and longshots. Shall we run it down, Sir Teddy? (El Angelo)

Let's. And I love the concept of Mount Gowanus. I assume that in this scenario, Tucker is the Krakon. (Teddy)

Tier 4: The Discreetly Mine Division

13. Val (1 point)

Very nice, Jake. (El Angelo)
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Seems a little high to me. (Teddy)

12. pastywhite tyrone (24 pts)

For the record, I did not pick this team to finish in last. Regardless, there's only one thing to say: you're doing a heckuva job, Brownie. (El Angelo)

Neither did I, actually. But investor confidence appears low at the moment. (Teddy)

11. Wu Tang Financial (26 pts)

Only one owner picked this team to finish higher than 9th place...and it's the team's own owner. I'd try to make an argument for them doing well, but they've only finished above 6th place once: their first year. (El Angelo)

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I feel like people might be extrapolating a little too much out of B.J. Upton-gate. The team's not that bad. (Teddy)

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10. Duck-Duck-Duck-Fuke (30 pts)

I picked Will to finish in 8th, and as I've noted before, I never get Will's team correctly. I think I've sentenced him to another 5th place finish. (El Angelo)

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One person had these guys DAFL, which slightly skews their ranking. Though I guess that's the point of this methodology. (Teddy)

9. Enrico Palazzo (34 pts)

Seems like a consolidation year to get some good talent in here before a push to contention next year. The offense looks a bit anemic. (El Angelo)

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As I said in the season preview, there's more here than you might expect, especially with Carlos Quentin looking frisky in the early going. But there are more solid teams than usual this year, and I guess somebody has to be worst of the best. (Teddy)

Tier 3: The Awesome Act Division

8. The Situation Room (47 pts)

There's nothing like everyone thinking your team is mediocre. (El Angelo)

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Well, not everyone--these guys got one vote to hit the board, which is what separates them from the Tier 4 teams below. The other predictions? 6/7/6/10/7/10/9. So, yeah, that part is pretty mediocre. (Teddy)

7. The Little Green One (58 pts)

Some large divergence here. One owner picked this team to finish in third, three picked them to finish in 4th, while two of us (myself included) chose them to finish next-to-last. I really don't like the pitching or a lot of guys in the lineup, and can see this team selling off assets early to build for next year. (El Angelo)

Yeah, this is one of the two lightning-rod teams this year. I'm already on record that I think these guys wil challenge for the board. That said, the league vote as a whole has done a good job of reflecting the fact that the shape of this roster, with its multiple high-slot guys, is going to force the owner to either buy heavily or sell heavily come the summer. (Teddy)

6. Jeters Never Prosper (58 pts)

We've kept this squad in Tier 3 because only one owner has picked them to finish in the money. By contrast, everyone else has them between 4th and 8th. Ladies and gentlemen, the team everyone thinks will be mediocre! (El Angelo)

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Kind of the mirror image of Ang's squad, except that where everyone thinks Ang's squad will be "not all that good," everyone thinks these guys will be "not quite good enough." (Teddy)

Tier Two: The Sidney's Candy Division

5. The Spam Avengers (60 pts, 3 first place votes)

My pick to win it all, as well as a computer pick and another human's pick. By contrast, one owner predicts him to finish him in 8th, and two others predict him for next-to-last. That mathematically translates to fifth place, but pins this as a boom-or-bust team. (El Angelo)

...and here's the other lightning rod. I feel better about my deeply hedged season preview of this team now that I see that nobody else knows what to make of them either. (Teddy)

4. Gowanus Superfunders (61 pts)

My esteemed colleague wrote me today to say that he needs Lawrence Jones to perform to him until Carlos Beltran returns. My response: planning for a Met to be healthy is planning to fail. (El Angelo)

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I'd like to thank everyone (well, almost everyone) for nominating me for this season's El Angelo Memorial All-In But Out of the Money Award. I got three 4th place votes, and two 5ths. Of course, one guy did pick me to finish 11th. I'm not sure which would be worse. (Teddy)

Tier One: The Eskendereya Division

3. The Revenge Society (70 pts, 1 first place vote)

Was 2009 a fluke result? (El Angelo)

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There's still work to be done on the roster, but I understand the vote of confidence in the owner. (Teddy)

2. Le Dupont Torkies (80 pts, 1 first place vote)

What I find interesting: all but one of the ballots picked this team to come in the top 3. The one that didn't was a computer-generated result, which put him in 9th place. I do think that someone's Wankdorf BCS Machine is underrating the owner's tendency to put together a winning squad, but if this team does flop, that program will become the fantasy equivalent of Deep Blue. (El Angelo)

Did LDT's owner assault a spreadsheet at some point? Because this is two years in a row that the computers have come in hard against him. Didn't seem to slow him down last year, though. (Teddy)

1. Suck It, Silver (83 pts, 3 first place votes)

All but one of the 8 ballots has this squad finishing in the money, and with good reason: the pitching and hitting are deep and balanced. Injury and regression on the team's residents Blue Jays are factors, but here's your 2010 morning line favorite. (El Angelo)

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SIS is my pick as well, so I can't argue. (Teddy)

Mike Scioscia is a Menace

Mike Scioscia has now not played Mike Napoli--a guy I kept, mind you--in EITHER of the first two games of the season. This despite the fact that he hit TWENTY-FOUR MOTHERF&$#ING home runs last year, and hit six more in spring training.

Scioscia--a good defensive catcher who couldn't hit his way out of a puff pastry--is instead starting Jeff Mathis because of his defense and game calling rapport with the Angels' starters. And that's worked out real well, seeing as how opposing baserunners are 1/1 on SB attempts, and the Angels' starters have given up 8 runs in 11 innings pitched.

Mike, baby, cut the sh%t. Re-consider whether it's a good idea to leave the second-best hitter on your team on the bench, OK? Thanks.

I swear, dealing with these f#$%ing people. I have enough problems managing my fantasy team without fat Mike Scioscia smearing meatball parm all over my lineup card.

[Deep breath]

OK, aura cleansed. But seriously, come on. Jesus.

(h/t to Walk-off Walk for the pic)

Season Preview: Le Dupont Torkies

Death. Taxes. Tucker doing well in fantasy baseball. How well? Let's take a quick review:



2002: All records have been destroyed, but I know this team wasn't horrible.

2003: 4th place, a half point out of the money, and only 5 points from winning. This was even better than it seems because Tucker's crazy-good starting pitching was derailed in September when he hit the innings maximum that nobody knew existed.

2004: Won, with 106 points. The maximum, for those keeping score, is 120.

2005: 3rd place, behind two insanely stacked teams run by Scot and Teddy.

2006: Won.

2007: 2nd place, courtesy of a crazy-good season by It's Enrico Palazzo.

2008: Won, with 99.5 points. Side note: Scot somehow had 92.5 points this year and finished in third.

2009: Won, and again cracked the 100-point barrier.

To summarize, that's zero finishes out of the money since 2004, and barring the rules biting him (and everyone else) in the ass, it would be 7 straight money finishes. So it's a fait accompli that Tucker's in the top 3 again, right?

Infield

Phillie stalwart Chase Utley has been traded off to the Commish, which is akin to being banished to Siberia or the Kansas City Royals. In his place is Ben Zobrist, who not coincidentally was on 60% of winning fantasy rosters last year. The rest of the infield is the definition of a mixed bag. Carlos Pena is a great contract-year play, Russell Martin is either a bounceback candidate or a total flop waiting to happen, Stephen Drew's still One Year Away (or is he?) and Mark DeRosa went to Penn. An okay, not great unit.

Outfield

Adam Dunn and Jacoby Ellsbury perform roughly the same function that Holliday and Span did for the commish by covering all categories fairly well. Rounding out these slots are the wildly underrated Shane Victorino, who produces a little in all categories, and last year's Jason Heyward, Colby Rasmus. The team's going to need a breakout from Rasmus or Juan Pierre to not kill them in OBP and power to stay in the top half of the offensive categories.

Starting Pitching

One of the youngest and most upside-laden staffs in the league. Adam Wainwright's already a top-1o starter, Tommy Hanson may well join him by year's end, and Brett Anderson is a potential stud. Those three alone would make this one of the most potent staffs in the league, but they've also got hanging around the underrated Jeff Niemann, a My Guy in Brandon Morrow, solid citizen JA Happ, and intriguing wildcard Chris Volstad. Personally, I like this staff the most of anyone's in the league.

Relief Pitching

With four closers squarely in control of their jobs (Franklin, Soria, Fuentes, Hoffman), they're well on their way to 150 saves. What's also nice is these guys will keep the team ERA and WHIP in check, a good thing when you have young starters.

Outlook

For the first time in recent memory, this team isn't guaranteed 45+ points in hitting, which on paper makes it vulnerable. But I'm less sure that's the case. The pitching should be dominating. They're a top-3 squad in steals. They're going to have a high OBP. They'll score runs. That just leaves the power categories, which they can trade for. Do you want to bet against a repeat? Didn't think so.

Season Preview: The Little Green One, Take Two

After some protests, we're yielding to our commissioner's wishes and providing him with an actual preview of his team. For a list of the guys on his actual roster, take a peek at our first preview/dead pool. Here, we'll be brief and just talk about what the players should produce.

Infield

Tex, Utley and Longoria isn't just the best infield trio in the league, it's probably the best trio of players anyone has in the league. Not shockingly, there's a precipitious drop off after that. Some may see Geo Soto as having potential to jump into the McCann/VMart/Mauer rank of catchers; to me, he seems more likely to reside in the large group of 2nd tier catchers with Doumit, Napoli, Martin, Posada, etc. This isn't a bad thing, but it does mean he's an "asset" with an lowercase a. Elvis Andrus is a defensive stud only. And the bench of Ortiz, Conor Jackson and Alex Gordon is laden with disappointment. Great start, but no depth.

Outfield

The quicker the Constipated Kermits realize that Manny Ramirez is the team's worst outfielder, the better for this team, because this is a sneaky good set of players. Matt Holliday needs no introduction and produces everything but steals. Which is fine because Denard Span and Brett Gardner should steal 75+ bases, score a boatload of runs and do nothing else. If the team loses, it won't be because of the outfield.

Starting Pitching

No aces, but a lot of deuces, which as we all know, is how this owner rolls. Shields, Lackey, Buehrle and Harang are all decent enough guys that should keep the team competitive in wins and K's while not hurting in ERA and WHIP. Ian Kennedy is also here, presumably because Andy thinks former USC basketball star Allison Jaskowiak (right) is attractive.

Relief Pitching

Mariano and a lot of crossed fingers. I get wanting Bobby Jenks on your roster, but suspect he won't be closing by June. Matt Guerrier is a dice roll. Every other reliever is either not actually relieving or not actually any good.

Outlook

For a team that finished in DAFL last year, this is a surprisingly solid squad. That said, the holes up the middle and at relief are large enough that this looks like a middle of the pack team. What makes this squad interesting, however, is that it holds a pair of ginormous trade chips in Utley and Texieria should they fall out of contention. Those two could yield some good players/picks for 2011, making this a clear team to watch for next year.