A Brief Burst of Actual Baseball Writing

For anyone who's interested, I have a two-part season preview of the Seattle Mariners going up over at Sons of Sam Horn. While SoSH is mainly a Red Sox site, there are discussions about the other ML teams, and I've somehow ended up as the resident Seattle guru. The preview is a little more serious than the stuff we put up around here, but it's still a good read.

Warning: You may have to sign up for a lurker account to see the preview--I'm not sure how the site works it. But there's a lot of good content on SoSH, so it's worth doing anyway.

EDIT--the preview itself is at the bottom of the linked thread.

Season Prognostications

Well, it's time to marshal and channel all that hard work and analysis we did in putting together those season previews. That's right boys and girls...it's time for some prognostications. We'll go team by team here, starting off with those we largely agree on. Ready, Teddy? (AG)

Sure, why not? You'll see that our picks differ more once we break clear of the bottom-feeders. Conveniently, Ang and I have exactly the same record in the league (a 2nd and a 3rd each), so team owners can feel free to just pick the more favorable projection without fearing that they're ignoring the sage of the group. Links in each team name lead to the season preview focusing on that squad. (Teddy)

President Skroob: 12th Place (unanimous)

I'm not sure if it's obvious, but I'm building for 2008 and beyond. (AG)

I think there's a typo there--you meant that you're building for 2108 and beyond, right? (Teddy)

Evil Empire: 11th Place (El Angelo)/10th place (Teddy)

I'm trying to determine if last year was an optical illusion, a confluence of great things happening all at once, or if this team's better than I think it is. I'm still skeptical, so I'll slot them to beat me, which is damnation by faint praise. (AG)

I think there's enough offense here to do some damage, but the pitching is so dire that it will weigh the team down. (Teddy)

bobcat goldthwaits: 10th Place (El Angelo)/11th Place (Teddy)

This club could actually finish a lot higher this year, but I can't see them catching money. Hitting 4th or 5th though? Wouldn't surprise me. (AG)

I think that either of the 10th-11th place teams could reach as high as 4th-5th pretty easily. The league is strong enough that a lot of the skill elements cancel each other out at the bottom, so that it's down to luck who finishes where. (Teddy)

Ed Rooney's Office: 9th Place (unanimous)

Surprisingly strong draft + young keeper list = second division finish. There's no margin for error, unless Delmon Young replicates Ryan Howard's 2006. (AG)

I hate my team less than I thought I would, though I still hate it a lot by any objective measure. I feel like I'm pretty well locked into the 7-10 range; my team doesn't have the upside of some others because I'm so far behind the curve on offense. There are so many crap pitching staffs this year that a couple of the good bat/no pitch teams will end up 4th in every pitching category almost by accident. That won't happen on offense. (Teddy)

Nigerian Gentlemen: 8th Place (unanimous)

This is actually the first team I could see competing for a spot in the money, the other 4 are best suited for waiting till next year. (Anyone up for spades?) Still, I have to place the 2002 Champs here, based less on their regression to the mean than the stepping up of the competition. Oh how I long for the days of my brother, Corey/Cody and Bartolacci. (AG)

That's probably right; the line between non-contenders and those with a shot at some money falls either here or one notch further up the chart. (Teddy)

We now hit some bigger divergences in opinion, but the first three are essentially tossed in a bag to reach the same result.

It's Enrico Palazzo: 7th place (El Angelo); 6th place (Teddy)

Since I really have nothing to say about this team, can we just award Idiot of the Century to Steve Swindal? If you know you've already beaten out George's own SONS as the heir apparent to the Yankee franchise, wouldn't you make sure you left the seat down? (AG)

There's only so much poop one man can eat. I applaud his choice of dignity over lucre. (Teddy)

Lefty's Revenge: 5th place (El Angelo); 7th place (Teddy)

The weaker of the two St. Louis originated teams, these guys could hit money this year. Until they show me the clutch stretch-drive performance you need though, I'm ranking them below the three prior champs and the guy with the better team. Sorry Jon. (AG)

I think the offense is just a click below the 4-5 real powerhouses, which will keep them from breaking into the first division. (CP)

M**e: 6th place (El Angelo); 5th Place (Teddy)

I'll go on record with saying there's no shot they'll actually finish in 6th---this strikes me as a team that's going to either run into the top 2 slots, or crater badly and trade off assets for next year. So I'll be chickenshit and say 6th, it ain't the first time today I've given a cop out answer. (AG)

I think the pitching gets healthy too late. Late starts kill you in this format, where you have to decide by July whether you're eating your keepers and going for it, or trying to rebuild. That's in large part what happened to me last year: Teix, Giles, Pierre, and Beltre all had terrible first halves, and the weight of all my upcoming plus 2 guys meant that I had to pull the plug and miss their subsequent bouncebacks in the second half. (Teddy)

And now for the creme de la creme, where we still sport divergent opinions. Well, with one exception.

Le Dupont Torkies: 4th place (El Angelo); 3rd place (Teddy)

I'm loathe to pick against the Defending Champs, who have done nothing but win in the last 4 years. (Some could argue they should've won the 2nd year.) I think the loss of the infield talent knocks them down a peg, and the lose out on a close battle for prize money in September. (AG)

They need to plug the gaps in the OF, but I feel like you can throw together some decent OF platoons more easily than you can fill gaps up the middle (where the team is already strong). The recent Dan Johnson injury exposes them at 1B, though--Ryan Shealy is a slender reed upon which to base a run at the board. (Teddy)

The Spam Avengers: 3rd place (El Angelo); 1st place (Teddy)

Wouldn't surprise me if they won, but as I previewed, I'm more skeptical than I thought I would be. But again, here's an owner who knows how to acquire talent, and there should be a good summer battle at the top brewing. (AG)

I like TSA's bench the best out of any team in the league--they can eat some bad luck and still be competitive. That's why I think they're the favorites, though it's anything but a sure bet. (Teddy)

The Sex Cannons: 2nd place (unanimous)

So Teddy & I basically agree that he and I have teams that have no shot to compete, Ironhead will be joining us for concession beers roughly around Father's Day, and that the Commish will finally grab a medal this year, and the silver one at that! That's the most agreeing we've done since picking Portugal as a sleeper team in the 2002 World Cup, and that couldn't have worked out worse. (AG)

Cristiano Ronaldo is a whining faker who is unfit to wear the forest green and scarlet. (Teddy)

Hand Banana: 1st place (El Angelo); 4th place (Teddy)

I'm a lot more trusting of: (i) this pitching staff than Teddy is, and/or (ii) the owner's ability to rectify his one drafting omission with a smart deal in the next 3 months. I think this squad rises back to the top again in a verrrrry close race this year.

I am leery of the pitching--I just don't think Arroyo and Pettitte are going to have much left in the tank this season. That said, I'm basing this prediction on the current state of the rosters and not on what I think the teams will look like come September. The GM knows his stuff, so I wouldn't be surprised at all if he beats my projection. (Teddy)

Thanks for following along at home. We here at the GRBG received word today that we've broken the Internet record for most preseason words posted about a fantasy league, having narrowly overcome Baseball Prospectus's coverage of the BP Kings draft, and Bill Simmons' coverage of every draft he's participated in since he left the Cross. We'll switch back to traditional Transaction Analyses once the season starts, with occasional random items tossed in. We're especially excited about one such forthcoming item, an Iconoclasts-style sitdown interview with Milton Bradley and Oil Can Boyd. So stay tuned!

Also, management would like to note that Juan Pierre and Billy Wagner are officially on the block.

Season Preview: M**e

We conclude our dozen previews with a review of M**e, a team name that I utterly refuse to state properly based on the owner's complete failure to give his squad a real team name. I mean, for crissakes, it's not that hard to create a fantasy team name. A team name doesn't have to be good (The Spam Avengers), timely (President Skroob), relevant (bobcat goldthwaits) or even sensible (Le Dupont Torkies). Occasionally, they're quite inspired (The Sex Cannons). But mostly they're ok and nothing more. And passing on this obligation? Tantamount to fantasy treason. I'm disgusted. On with the preview.

Team History: A third-year squad that joined at the same time as Hand Banana, M**e hasn't quite had the success that his co-expansioner has, but that's nothing to be ashamed of. The difference was while Hand Banana went for the gold out of the gate (rightly), M**e took the more patient, Jerry-West pre-Grizzlies style of building from within and stockpiling assets. The two-year plan tightened a bit in the offseason with a stunning trade with Mickelson's Spawn, which resulted in him keeping a crapload of offense (indeed, his whole starting lineup) and virtually no pitchers. Can this work? This is the year they've been building for, and it's time to see if their grand plan comes to fruition.

Infield: Chris Ianetta, Albert Pujols, Rickie Weeks, Rafael Furcal, Bill Hall. Well, starting with Pujols automatically gives you credibility and stats, and the rest of this infield makes a ton of sense, as it's very well rounded while relatively young and still has some upside. I'm a hair skeptical that Hall can repeat his insane 2006, and Ianetta & Weeks are still somewhat unproven, but it beats starting graybeards like Jeff Kent and Paul LoDuca in these spots. Like this a lot.

Outfield/DH: Andruw Jones, Matt Holliday, Johnny Damon, Derrek Lee. The presence of Lee here knocks this from a good to very good quartet. There's a bit less star power than you'd like to see from a contender's OF, but it's not harmful, as steals are made up pretty quickly with these guys, and they're all around solid in all categories. Which is nice, for the inevitable injury won't cripple you the way, oh, Juan Pierre's vagina acting up might kill your steals. M**e seems to be shooting for 9 points in all offense categories, and that's fine if the pitching holds up.

Bench: Jorge Posada, Ryan Freel. It's a short bench, but a smart one: Freel takes away the need to keep other guys around because he covers for all positions but 1B...which D.Lee already takes care of. Catcher's obviously the other wildcard, and Posada's not only a good guy to spell Ianetta off injuries and day games after night games, he's also a very viable fantasy option should Ianetta struggle. Can't say that there's a better way to make a 2-man bench than this.

Starting Pitching: Greg Maddux, Pedro Martinez, Roger Clemens, Tim Hudson, Jason Jennings, Jake Westbrook. By contrast to the youth movement in the infield, you've got octogenarians galore in the starting staff. I can't say I really endorse the squad here; Clemens is currently unsigned, and probably won't be a Yankee until Memorial Day; Pedro is out till August (though may be good trade bait); Maddux is old; Hudson is less old and suckier; Jason Jennings just went from bandbox #1 to bandbox #2, and Jake Westbrook is...well, probably the surest thing on this staff. That's sad.

Relief Pitching: B.J. Ryan, Huston Street, Jose Valverde, Kerry Wood, Brad Lidge, Jorge Julio Jorge. We're once again all over the map here, with a bonafide stud in Ryan, to a very good guy in Street, to a mebbe in Lidge, to the last triuumverate of question marks. I see the goal and it's interesting: work the relievers to hit a lot of saves, creep over the IP minimum, win ERA & WHIP, and not suck in W's and K's. Not the dumbest idea I've heard, I'm just not sure these are the horses you need to do it.

Breakout Star: BP loves Ianetta, and while I can't argue with it much, I really think Weeks is going to take a big step forward this year, and put himself in the upper echelon of second basemen. Of course, the position is currently so weak that Robby Alomar could contemplate coming out of retirement and get drafted by a fantasy team, so this isn't exactly hard to become a fantasy stud at the keystone position. Still, I like him almost as much as Howie Kendrick this year, which is saying something.

On the Wrong Side of the Hill: I owned Tim Hudson last year. It wasn't pretty. Trust me M**e: get rid of him now. I somehow can't believe I took him in the 2nd round of the league's inaugural draft, and it turned out ok for exactly 3 years.

X-Factor: Wow, I'm to pick an X-factor between a guy who's not on a team, a Hall-of-Famer returning from season ending surgery, and a Cubs flameout? You know what? None of these guys has as much immediate relevance as Brad Lidge getting his head screwed on straight. If he reverts to pre-Pujols' 5000 foot blast in the 2005 playoffs, suddenly we're staring at a team with three stud closers and a plan that makes a whole lot more sense in a heartbeat. If he stays on the level of Valverde & Julio though, this is not gonna be pretty.

Verdict: With all due respect to Teddy, I disagree that the Defending Champs are the hardest ones to figure out, this team, to me, is the most difficult one to decipher. The offense is quite good, if lacking the scare factor in any single player. The pitching plan is a good idea with some holes, and some work is going to be needed here. This isn't a championship team at the moment, but it ain't far away. If Clemens & crew can add something to a bullpen that could be lethal if all the closers pan out; or if the depth can be used to bring in a real starter, we may be talking about this 3rd year team instead come September.

And boys and girls, that does it for the previews! Up next, a perfunctory effort to prognosticate by Messrs. Teddy & Angelo.

Season Preview: Ed Rooney's Office

In most discussions of the greatest American bands and artists, the name that should come up but never does is R.E.M. And why is that? Well, it could be because they haven't made a good album since my junior year of high school, despite trying and bombing multiple times (c'mon, Monster blew), and it could be because Stipe looks like he just checked out of the Mayo Clinic at all times. Still, to date, Murmur remains a great first album, Automatic for the People is still fantastic, and their scattered singles are superb. But undoubtedly the band's masterpiece is Reckoning, an album that gets forgotten rather quickly when discussing greatest rock albums, a horrendous oversight. As argued by this dude, it wasn't too long ago that U2 and R.E.M. were in the same conversation. Now it's comical to even insinuate this is the case.

To partially honor R.E.M., and partially because this team sucks enough that doing a conventional preview is beyond uninteresting, we're taking a step out of the norm here and doing the preview through the relevant lyrics from Reckoning, provided in red below where appropriate. I would pay Bill Simmons royalties, but I'm convinced he was stomped to death at Bumbershoot last summer.

Team History: Why're you trying to second guess me? Second guessing hasn't been apporpriate for this squad, who's been all over the map in their finishes, much like the co-author of this genius blog. As one of the Original Six, a very good 3rd place finish in the seminal year was followed up by a couple of middling efforts, until a huge run was made for the top in 2005, which resulted in a 2nd place finish that looks even more inexplicable now---not that Scot's team overachieved, but this squad was fricking stacked. Last year was a tad on the disappointing side...for reasons that are tough to ascertain. The team couldn't have been that bad, as the 1-2-3 picks in this year's draft were all refugees from the 9th place team. Nonetheless, it's clearly rebuilding team with an eye to '08 for this year. Right?

Infield: Victor Martinez, Adam Hoffman LaRoche, Howie Kendrick, Carlos Guillen, Eric Chavez. Knock, knock, knock on wood. Youth is definitely being served here, with a lot of upside, returnside, and questionside. I mean, Adam LaRoche? The Braves couldn't dump him fast enough for a middling reliever, and you're going to tell me he's more Jermaine Dye than Melvin Nieves? I remain skeptical. Kendrick & Victor are tough not to like, and Guillen remains underrated, but he & Chavez make up a left side of the infield that could crater from injuries. Lotta risk here, but no guts...

Outfield/DH: Adam Dunn, Juan Pierre, Delmon Young, Josh Willingham. Going where nobody says hello, they don’t talk to anybody they don’t know. Geezus, there's a ton of potential strikeouts in this outfield. To recycle a joke I make every month and never gets a single laugh, Teddy, you realize K's are pitching category, right? Ok, Dunn is a stud for the OF, and Young should bloom in the next year or two, provided he doesn't try to kill an umpire, but Willingham's a huge dice roll, and Pierre provides only one category of assistance while killing you in 3 others. In other thoughts, if Dukes & Delmon get lockers next to each other in the Devil Rays locker room, is it possible we'll have a media member killed by May? This is a surly group of guys to put together.

Bench: Andy Marte, Jeff Kent, Milton Bradley. The biggest wagon is the empty wagon. Suffice to say, I think this group will change during the year. Kent has no staying power and may find himself in another clubhouse imbroglio by June. (And if you thought you could get an impartial thought regarding Jeff Kent out of me, you don't know me well enough.) Marte's a fair flyer, but given the strength of 3B's in general right now, he's gonna have to be pretty special to make himself stick. As for Bradley....well, now at least we know that Delmon's the kinder gentler Defrocked Principal.

Starting Pitching: Johan Santana, Josh Beckett, Brett Myers, Justin Verlander, A.J. Burnett, Kelvim Escobar, Mark Buehrle, Esteban Loaiza, Adam Loewen. Heaven’s yours, heaven’s yours, heaven’s yours where I live. Finally, something good to write about. There's a ton of starting pitching here that's already good (Santana, Myers, Verlander), a guy who should be a stud (Beckett), and a ton of fun rebounders and/or young guys. Some thoughts: what to make of Beckett, who's about to get to Expensive Keeper status? Is Santana more valuable as trade bait? Will Brett Myers punch his wife again? These are good questions though.

Relief Pitching: Mariano Rivera, Tom Gordon. A handshake is worthy if it's all that you've got. For a Red Sox fan, this is inexcusable. Why would you want to re-create the 2004 Yankees' bullpen? Oh wait...

Breakout Player: What will be your look this season? Howie Kendrick takes the league by storm, wins the batting title, and scores 100 runs as the Angels go to the playoffs. There, I said it. The downside? Teddy screaming out Howie every fricking time the guy comes to bat. Call me happy that the bastard can't get the Extra Innings package.

On the Wrong Side of the Hill: If your friends took a fall, are you obligated to follow? Sorry, I think Buerhle's near done. I do give Don Cooper the utmost respect, but I think he's about to hit creaky veteran status that execrable commodities like Steve Trachsel and Kris Benson inhabit.

X-Factor: Cannot shuffle in this heat, it's all wrong. Beckett really could be the turning point and make this staff into something special. He wasn't awful last year, and probably isn't worth the riches of prospects that they gave up for him, but there's no reason he can't enter this year as a bad-ass and throw down a 18-6 year with a strong ERA. He also could re-blister his groin and be a poor man's Matt Clement.

Verdict: I'm sorry.

Season Preview: Le Dupont Torkies

Le Dupont Torkies

Honest to God, until Angelo came up with the picture at right, I thought that "Torkies" was either a made-up word or some kind of derogatory term for a well-dressed man. Instead, I've learned that it's a code for some sort of Frankendog made up of parts of a Terrier, parts of a Yorkie, and probably parts of the biggest dog of them all, Heathcliff Slocumb.

Once my ignorance was made clear, I did a little research to see how far I had strayed from the mean level of cultural literacy. As a guy who makes his living (metaphorically speaking) on random cultural references, I was afraid that I had fallen irrevocably behind the curve.

You can imagine my relief, then, when I Googled the word "torkies" and found that this very blog was returned as the 7th-most relevant site. (Please bear in mind that, despite its name, this blog is only the 3rd-most relevant site for on the web for gowanus+baseball.) While we here at the GRBG are proud of and grateful for the modest readership we've put together thus far, the notion that we are among the top ten repositories of Torkie knowledge on the web evokes in us a strange combination of humbleness, bafflement, and alarm. We can only hope that the GRBG will continue to serve as a beacon for Torkie lovers everywhere and pray that, in God's own time, we'll crack the Top Ten for Enrico Palazzo references as well.

So, what was I talking about again? Right, right, the other team in the league that always wins. Well, they'll probably be good again this fucking year. The franchise was forced to shed a lot of talent in the offseason following a bunch of acquisitions of upcoming FAs during the stretch run last season. The team responded by taking on a lot of risk in the preseason, especially on the pitching side. Some of that risk has already paid off, as Jon Papelbon has been moved back into the closer's slot, where he should hold down the fort for the next decade or so.

Infield

Here's the first sign of a drop off from last year's squad, with stud 1Bs Adam Dunn and Mark Teixeira replaced with Ryan Shealy, a guy who projects as a sort of evolutionary Brian Daubauch. Backup Dan Johnson might well snake this spot, as he was banged up nearly all of last season, and has a bunch of 1B/DH PAs to himself this year in Oakland. However, I like SS Jhonhnhy Peralta for a bounceback this year, as he apparently played all last year with blurred vision that was corrected by offseason Lasik surgery. The rest of the IF/UTIL is dominant with Travis Hafner, Chase Utley and Alex Rodriguez around.

Outfield

This unit is anchored by ex-Phil Bobby Abreu, who has set off on one of the odder late-career roto paths in history. Unlike most older corner OFs, Abreu has kept his speed (30 SBs last year) while losing his power (15 HRs) . The HR drop came despite playing last year in Philly and Yankee Stadium, two of the best HR parks in baseball for left-handed hitters. Abreu's OBP and R RBI totals should stay level at worst with a full season in New York. It will be interesting to see, though, whether the Yankees send him on the basepaths as often as Philly did, especially since Abreu is more likely to have a power bat behind him in New York. If Abreu's SB total drops down to 15 to match his HRs, he'll go from a cornerstone OF to a complementary player.

Raul Ibanez and Chris Duffy round out the OF. In the wake of Duffy's trade to the Dodgers, both are OK players stuck in unfavorable hitting environments that limit their value. Brad Hawpe provides more punch but no speed, which puts even more pressure on Abreu to keep running.

Pitching

The staff is based around veteran innings-eaters John Smoltz, Curt Schilling, and Fab Five Freddy Garcia. You can pencil those guys in for good counting stats if only because they're very good about taking the ball every 5th day. However, the fortunes of the team will really rise or fall based on its two Tremendous Upside youngsters, Dick Harden and Rich Hill. Nobody's ever questioned Harden's ability, but he has missed significant chunks of time over the course of his major league career. Hill posted a fantastic K rate last year, but one that was well out of line with his minor league history. If both of these guys come through, the Torkies will be right back near the top. If both flame out, the fantasy replacement level guys who come in will sink the rotation. Given the year to year volatility of pitchers generally, I like the approach of getting the highest-upside guys you can find, and hoping that you can beat the house and see them through to the end of the season healthy.

Now that Papelbon is back the bullpen is in OK shape to start, with Bob Wickman and Todd Jones around to rack up Saves and Heart Attacks Induced in roughly equal measure. But with both Jones and Wickman clearly less talented than their backups (and with those backups already taken by other teams in the league), any dip in form will lead to a benching and a need for the Torkies to plug the gap.

Prognosis: Probably the toughest team in the league to handicap. Tons of talent; even more risk. I'll split the difference and say they end up in the first division, but out of the money.

Season Preview: The Spam Avengers

Five days till Opening Day, i.e., when the Mets exact revenge and kick the ever-living shit out of the Cardinals. Eat it, Elders. Who's next? Ah yes, our token Yankee fan, The Spam Avengers!

Team History: The Spam Avengers joined us in the 2nd year of the league, taking the place of somebody that we've totally lost track of (Val? Barto? Random dude from St. Louis?), and proceeded to draw laughter from the league for taking Jason Giambi over Barry Bonds in the expansion draft. The joke was quickly on the rest of the league when he overcame a huge early season start by your humble narrator to take the league in his first year. Since then, we've had no finishes worse than 4th by this squad, and even those 4th place finishes have been by infintessimally small percentages. It's a story when this team doesn't contend. Also notable is that they've now had the same team name for 4 straight seasons, a mark only matched by Evil Empire. (I could be wrong, but I believe the Torkies were something even more asinine back then.)

Infield: Mike Piazza, Justin Morneau, Tad Iguchi, Jose Reyes, Aramis Ramirez. At first blush my shoulders shrugged, but this is a very VERY well constructed infield on further examination. Reyes is an obvious stud, and even if he regresses in the power categories, he's still good for 100 R's and 50 SB's. I love Piazza as a candidate to hit 30 dingers this year, which should offset the inevitable Morneau regression. Add the fact that Aramis really belongs on the top level of players and never gets the credit he deserves, and we're staring at a very very potent IF, boys and girls.

Outfield/DH: Jermaine Dye, Barry Bonds, Ichiro!, Jason Giambi. If you go by the assumption that Dye & Giambi are past their prior injuries, and will only be slowed by aches & pains, then this is nothing shy of excellent. And well rounded--Ichiro! provides the necessary steals, while Bonds bops. And they all provide a solid OBP by hook or by crook. Very good, if not stellar.

Bench: Mike Cameron, Morgan Ensberg, Nick Markakis, Ray Durham. We've got three candidates I like to have a bounceback/breakout year in Cameron, Markakis & Ensberg, each of which is a smart addition to the bench. Having a careful eye on the OF/DH situation will make this work even better, as Bonds is probably only playing ~120 games, so watching lineups like a hawk and spotting Cameron/Markakis correctly should pay off. Durham had a monster year in 2006 that I think he's unlikely to repeat, but I'm nit-picking, he's probably a better starting 2B than 1/3 of the league is sporting.

Starting Pitching: Scott Kazimir, Erik Bedard, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Scott Olsen, The Big Eunuch, (gulp) Bartolo Colon, (double gulp) Mark Prior. The big names on this squad are obviously the Eunuch, who is who he is at this point, and Dice-K. Yet, I can't help but think that Bedard is actually the star of this rotation, which indicates its depth. There's a pissload of K's to ensue from these guys. My reservations (besides counting on anything from Prior & Colon): (i) there's a bunch of guys here on shitty team like the D-Rays, Marlins & O's, who aren't going to chalk up a lotta wins, (ii) there's a lotta guys in the AL, which won't help the rate stats, and (iii) there are a bunch of guys here we're crossing fingers over. This could finish like a Peter Gammons column: if Dice K adjusts well, and if Johnson regains his confidence, and if Kazimir stays healthy, and if Olsen avoids the sophmore jinx.....

Relief Pitching: Trevor Hoffman, Francisco Cordero, Dan Wheeler, Mike Capps. By contrast to their IF, this is a group I like less after closer examination. Yeah, Hoffman is Hoffman, but he's about 3 sliders from getting forked in the back. Cordero's ok...but I can't shake the feeling he's about to revert to TX form, which sucked. Dan Wheeler's a pitcher without an opportunity in a tater-tastic park. Which leaves one question: who the fuck is Mike Capps?

Breakout Candidate: I may be a year early on this one, but I think Markakis is gonna be a star, and this is a great spot for him to flourish, what with OF issues and some big names in their walk year. If he does hit the ground running this year, we're looking at a tough squad.

On the Wrong Side of the Hill: Well, I've already mentioned my questions about Durham & Hoffman...and we know that Johnson's kinda old....I dunno, would Mike Cameron even count? Pass.

X-Factor: This team has a triuumverate of X-Factors. Bonds, Prior & Colon have a range of expectations that you can't match anywhere else, and frankly, there isn't an outcome that would shock us, besides them all having clean healthy and scandal-free seasons. Or Colon checking in at under 275.

Verdict: It's interesting, I thought this was the 2nd best team after draft day, but now that we've done these previews, I'm less convinced. This isn't to say that the team stinks and that they won't improve, there are a LOT of tradeable parts here (Markakis, Olsen, etc.) and the holes aren't big. This is most certainly an upper level team, and I'd be shocked for them to be selling instead of buying on July 1. But a lock for the top? Not quite.

Season Preview: Evil Empire

[Ed note--I'm probably going to ignore Ang, throw caution to the wind, and toss out some sort of predicted order of finish once we're done with these. Since there's no way I can win, I figure I won't be offending anybody.]

Evil Empire

Let's be clear: there's no room for politics in the pages of the Gowanus Rotisserie Baseball Gazette. Hell, there's often not enough room for baseball. We even hear occasional comments to the effect that there's apparently no room for jokes. So please, don't read anything in to the various photo accompaniments here.

For example, the picture above is relevant not for its categorization of the Evil Empire, but rather for its Rage Against the Machine reference. Rage is an appropriate kickoff for the discussion of this franchise because I fear that this team going to cause its owner more rage than is usually considered healthy. There are a lot of question marks of both the injury and the performance sort scattered around the diamond for this club, with particular issues in the rotation. A whole bunch of things are going to have to go right for their pitchers for them to be competitive, though it's not as though we haven't had surprises before in this league.

Infield

The infield is a game of One of These Things Is Not Like the Others, as Derek Jeter, Carlos Delgado, and Garrett Atkins will share space with either starter/fluke Brandon Philips or supersub Tony Graffanino, a player who is below replacement level at four different positions, plugged in at 2B. I may well be overly negative about Philips, who is still young and playing in a great home run park in Cincy. Nonetheless, 2B does stand out as a potential weak spot. The team is also backing up the injury-prone Delgado with the injury-assured Nomar Garciaparra, who I am contractually obligated to love even though he's falling apart and no longer plays for Boston. A few years back, who'd have thought that one team could have Jeter and Nomar and not be a lock to win? UTIL man Troy Glaus is a little bit wasted in that slot, what with his eligibility at 3B and (in a quirk of Colston-ian proportions, SS), but that just gives the team a little bit more trade fliexibility, which never hurts.

Outfield

One thing this team has is speed in depth, which is tough to do in a 12-team league. This is especially evident in the OF, with Alfonso Soriano, Corey Patterson, and Torii Hunter present. All three can steal bases while still providing value in at least one other category--several in the case of Soriano. And there's still Scott Podsednik on the bench with his SBs. Starting off with that big of a leg up in one category is an underrated way to stay competitive, and it's tough to see how this team will finish out of the top 3 in steals.

But while there's depth in terms of speed, there's not much in terms of overall depth at the position. Podsednik is coming off a major leg injury, and there's no telling whether he'll get all of his speed back. Without a healthy backup OF on the roster, the team is vulnerable to an injury to one of its starters. They might be better served ditching Tony Grafs and picking up a spare OF for use in an emergency.

Pitching

The ace of the staff is Aaron Harang.

Man, I'm tempted to just end this section right there. I suppose a little more analysis is probably called for, though. Anyway, Harang is actually an underrated guy--he had good rate stats last year, despite playing in a hitters' park. But that doesn't mean that you want him as the first name in on your list of SPs. Chris Capuano is another underrated guy, who isn't that bad as a #2. After that, though, there's trouble. Doug Davis and Jon Garland are just innings-eaters in hitters' parks, and Josh Johnson is out indefinitely. The two Tigers pitchers, Nate Robertson and Kenny Rogers Roasters might provide some decent value at the bottom of the rotation. Still, though, this is a team made up of a whole bunch of #3-type starters. Those kind of staffs sometimes rack up decent counting stats (W and K), but nearly always tank in the rate categories (ERA and WHIP).

Assuming that JJ Putz's recent elbow problems don't get any worse, the bullpen is in nice shape with Putz, Chad Cordero, and Joe Borowski hanging around. If the team doesn't jump out of the gate strongly, they'll be in a good position to flip a closer or two for goodies they can use next year.

Prognosis: Good offense, but not enough pitching for this year. However, they've got a decent core and the ability to flip SBs and SVs to get them in shape for a run down the line.

Season Preview: Nigerian Gentlemen

We continue our journey around the league with a look at Nigerian Gentlemen. But first, let's address the F.A.Q. of this list of postings that we've been getting from our fanmail.

• Where the hell are your actual predictions for these teams? Are you crazy? We don't prognosticate, we criticize. Anything more specific than that may make us accountable, and if the current administration has taught us nothing... (ducks brick from Evil Empire)
• Why hasn't my team gone yet? Bad luck. Plus, Teddy & I pretend to hold actual jobs. Actually, that's not true, we do hold actual jobs. What we do at them is another story.
• What about the transactions from draft day? And since free agency started? Jeezus Harold Fricking Christ, pipe down. We'll get to it. We do our work and pump out regular columns with insight, if not humor and originality. If we devolve into Bill Simmons, please shoot me. Or Teddy.
  
• Isn't Ravel hurt? Yeah, Pletcher's now one short. He'll only start 8 in the Derby. BTW, not to say I told you so on Hard Spun, but...
• What qualifies you to do this? Experience! I challenge you to find two other buffoons who spend time recapping fantasy transactions. We've morphed the worst qualities of Christina Karhl and Sars Bunting into one disgusting mass that somewhat resembles the naked visage of Wide Guy.
  

On to the squad whose name doesn't lend to a single P.C. joke...

Team History: Another of the Original Six from the league, the Olowokandis started off the league with a very strong performance--namely, winning the league out of the gate behind a strong and well-balanced team from an excellent initial draft. They rode that again to a good 2nd place the following year. While they've been out of the money in the next 3 years, it's hardly for lack of effort and there hasn't been a poor team amongst the five. Competitors can consistently count on this being a strong squad. Competitors can also consistently rely on is them being, um, deliberate on draft day---few teams have needed more prodding that it's their time to pick. But at least it doesn't result in selecting Mo Vaughn.

Infield: Paul LoDuca, Todd Helton, Brian Roberts, Chipper Jones, Edgar Renteria. This isn't a bad infield, but you can't point to this as the strength of the team. Add Frank Jobe would help; with the exception of Rent-a-Suck, whose name says it all, there's a fair chance the other 4 here could miss over 200 games with routine injuries.

Outfield/DH: Manny Ramirez, J.D. Drew, Grady Sizemore, David Ortiz. Well, we've got three of the 10 best hitters in the league here, and Drew, who may round out the Boston lineup with the OBP & power combo they've missed the last two year. Plus, the Sub-Saharan Lads only have to watch NESN to see their team's fates, which should reduce their cable bill, if nothing else. Since I really can't add much here, I'll just echo Deadspin's earlier posting and note that the University of Michigan's basketball coach position is listed between "secretary" and "nurse" on their Working at UM website. $5 to whoever submits the best resume, and I guarantee it won't be Bill Self.

Bench: Freddy Sanchez, Kevin Youkilis. Two players somehow manage to cover 5 positions of eligibility. Neither is particularly good, but they'll do the trick unless LoDuca goes down. BTW, we're now up to SIX players with strong Red Sox connections, as both of these guys were PawSox at one point. Does anyone else think that SOSH is being moderated by Jake?

Starting Pitching: Brandon Webb, Felix Hernandez, Ben Sheets, Mike Mussina, Annibal Sanchez, Clay Hensley, Brad Penny, Taylor Tankersley. That's a lot of talent assembled there, even though there's some question marks, they fall under the category of acceptable risks. Webb & Mussina are cornerstone pieces, and King Felix and Sheets are nothing shy of exemplary building blocks for a stellar pitching staff. Granted, both have serious injury issues to worry about (the latter recovering, the former preventing), but there's 70-win potential from this quartet. And smartly, depth is built in---Sanchez & Penny are very good back of the rotation guys, while Tankersley & Hensley are Can Go Either Ways; deal 'em if you're contending, keep 'em if you ain't. This may be the best staff in the league. And just imagine if they had...

Hospital Ward: Francisco Liriano. I sigh as my beautiful pick from last year has turned into dust. This to me is a waste, but he'll be on the DL anyway, so whatever.

Relief Pitching: Armando Benitez, Jason Isringhausen, Joel Piniero. We finish with a pair of Shea Stadium washouts and a guy who isn't closing for the Red Sox but would be the opening day starter for the Nationals. Yep, looks like they need some bullpen help.

Breakout Candidate: If you rule out the hives that are about to develop on tuberculosis ridden Jason Isringhausen (seriously, I'm not bitter the Mets traded him for Billy Fricking Taylor), and go under the assumption that Sizemore and King Felix don't qualify here, I'm going with Annibal Sanchez, who I think takes the next step this year and cements himself as a very solid #2 guy behind D-Train in Florida. We may be looking at a staff where Mussina is the 6th starter come June.

On the Wrong Side of the Hill: Would it be a cop-out to just say "infield"? Of all those guys in particular, I'm extremely down on Larry Jones, and not just because he's a schmuck. I have to think if he plays any real time at third it's going to exacerbate his injuries, and the lineup's still fragmented enough after Andruw & McCann that he's going to have problems scoring peripheral stats. May be the end of the road for Chipster, fantasy-wise.

X-Factor: J.D. Drew could be anything. Could be a sinkhole, could be a cancerous sore, could be a stud, could be MVP. I lean towards productive 3rd OF (he's not as good as Carlos Lee this year?), but his production's going to go a long ways to determining whether this is a top- or mid-level team.

Verdict: The staff and outfield are without peer in the league, and frankly, that will be enough to compete. To win? They're going to need a couple of breaks in the bullpen or a lil' bit o' luck in the infield, because they're somewhere between sinkholes and treading water in those divisions. Unless they're trying to compete by punting saves and crossing fingers, a trade is necessary, but at least they have the parts to do so. Definite contender that's 2 players shy of being a major player.

Season Preview: Lefty's Revenge

Lefty's Revenge

Is it still OK to hate Phil Mickelson? 'Cuz I can't stand the sonofabitch, with his wee, beady eyes and his smug look --"oh, you're gonna buy me some chicken, ohhhh." Part of me feels bad, because I usually root for the underdog. It probably goes without saying that anyone who grew up as a Red Sox fan automatically has a soft spot for underdogs, chokers, and general fuckups of all descriptions.

But despite looming cyborg presence of Tiger Woods, I just can't get behind Phil (unlike the gentleman above). In fact, he pretty much brings out the worst in me, as shown by the fact that after all these years I can still make myself giggle by referring to him as "Suck Dickleson," a joke that does not rank among my wittiest or most urbane. Not to bring it back around to his bastard children again, but it somehow throws off my worldview that this tubby bastard scored a hot wife and pots of money by coming in second. It's generally not the case that I root for a public figure to have an ugly wife, but there you go. If he had a wife who could balance a can of Old Milwaukee on her gut while standing up, I'd be tempted to throw my support to Phil. Until then, it's root, root, root for the cyborg.

Anyway, the team name is a touch off for this team, as Lefty was known for coming up just short when it mattered, while this franchise has usually been rather further off the pace. But this year's team is almost certainly the best edition of the franchise, and one that should be a factor in the race for the money.

Infield

Ol' Lefty is gonna need the kids to come up big this year, as they'll run out an opening day lineup with rookies B.J. Upton and Stephen Drew on the left side of the IF, and second-year leviathan Prince Fielder at first. Julio Lugo is a good positional value slotted in a second, even if his production in Boston is likely to skew more heavily towards R and OBP and less towards SB. With the general lack of speed on this team, they'll have to hope that the Sox turn Lugo loose more often than they do with most of their speed threats. There's a bit of a pileup at 3B, with Chad Tracy and Mark Teahen hanging around on the bench. 3B is a deep position in the majors right now, so it's not clear if there will be a big market for those guys. They do, however, provide a hedge against Upton failing to adjust to big-league pitching.

Outfield

Not a lot of depth here, at least until Teahen gets his OF eligibility. Lance Berkman is a stud, and Pat Burrell is an underrated OBP source, but Rocco Baldelli is already dinged up and Jeff Francoeur needs to stop swinging at everything that comes anywhere near the ballpark--including the F-16s in the pregame flyover--before he'll be as useful as his rep would indicate. With Frank Thomas locked up in the UTIL slot, the lack of depth in the OF shouldn't be too problematic. However, if Thomas gets hurt as usual and/or Baldelli goes down for an extended period, there might be some scrambling to fill their slots.

Pitching

With a top of the order of Zambrano/Willis/Schmidt/Young, this team is set up as well as any in the league. There are a few questions down at the bottom of the rotation, with some iteration of Boof Lilly-Reyes set to slot in, but there aren't many teams who can straight-facedly claim to be comfortable with the back of their rotations at this point in the season. The 'pen has three great arms in Eric Greg Gagne, K-Rod, and Joel Zumaya. However, it's unclear whether Gagne is functional, whether K-Rod's shoulder can survive another year of sliders, and whether Detroit is stupid enough to keep giving save opportunities to Todd Jones instead of the young, cheap reliever with the 102 mph fastball. You'd sort of think that idea would start rattling around the front office's collective brain like a marble in a trash can, but there's been no sign of progress to date. If the closers don't come through, that will be two categories (SB and SV) that the team will basically be punting, and it's going to be tough to compete with the big boys by leaving that many points on the board to start.

Prognosis: Like Classic Original Lefty, the team will be competitive, but miss out on the W.

Season Preview: bobcat goldthwaits

We resume our march through 1980's-inspired team names to a comic whose time never arrived, the bobcat goldthwaits. The real question isn't why bobcat never quite became as succesful as craptastic modern day hacks like Rob Schneider, David Spade and Louie Anderson; it's why the Healer chose this guy for his team name. Where's the love for Rodney? Sam Kinison? Hell, you could have split the difference and named it Dr. Babar and nobody would've gotten pissed off. Unlike some others in the league though, at least it's a real name. On that note, let's look at 2005's surprising squad that suffered a youth regression last year, bobcat goldthwaits.

Team History: One of the Original Six in this league, the bobcats had been somewhat in the category of loveable losers for the initial years of the league, bearing a strong core in hitting plus Chris Carpenter, but unable to assemble the necessary parts to rise out of the second division. Until 2005 where out of nowhere, the broken shift keys flew into contention and briefly flirted with the title before settling for a strong 4th place on the strength of surprise seasons from role players and pitching reclamation projects. That run to the top (where second place was missed by under 5 points) was followed last year by a rebuilding term, where the squad trended young and took a ton of young arms in the hope of developing studs from within. The result has been a mixed bag of some great potential, some classic vets, and some oddball decisions.

Infield: Michael Barrett (C); Richie Sexson (1B); Josh/Jesse Barfield (2B); Felipe Lopez (PG, St. John's); Ryan Zimmerman (3B). Some good stuff here, some not-so-good stuff here, which may almost be the mantra of this squad. Zimmerman's a stud at the corner, the only problem with him being that there's enough good 3B's all of a sudden that he's no longer a huge edge at position that he was say 5 years ago. Lopez is a great stats guy if you need steals (which this team does) and Sexson, while not a building block, is a fine gap-filler at first. I'm a bit bearish on Barfield, but perhaps that' just because I remember his dad sucking before and after his Yankee tenure. And then there's Barrett, who's been passed around like Lindsay Lohan at this point. I can't think he's leading you to anything greater.

Outfield/DH: Vladimir Guerrero, Jason Bay, Magglio Ordonez, Jim Thome. On paper this is nothing shy of tremendous, but aside from Bay, there's a lot of injury risk here. Vlad's often good for some nagging annoyances, Magglio once had to go to the Netherlands for medical treatment, and Thome only has about 4 functioning vertebrae remaining. You've gotta think if someone told Bobby that he'd get 600 games out of this quartet, he'd take it and run.

Bench: Pudge Rodriguez (C); Adrian Gonzalez (1B); Rich Aurilia (Util); Dave Roberts (OF); Coco Crisp (OF). Is there a mandate that each team has a P.O.S. on its bench that I didn't get? I mean, first Melvin Mora, now Rich Aurilia? Please tell me that the Ekos aren't carrying the dessicated remains of Dick Schofield on their bench. THAT rant aside, this bench is actually quite strong. Gonzalez & Crisp are excellent flyers on guys that might show improvement and be useful, while Pudge & Roberts both could be super trade bait in June for a team that needs a catcher with a pulse or steals, respectively.

Starting Pitching: Matt Cain, Ervin Santana, Cliff Lee, Tom Glavine, Kei Igawa; John Maine. Youth will be served here on a staff that has enough upside to make Hubie Brown choke on his dyed-grey phlegm. Glavine apparently is around to be a camp counselor to the kiddies, because frankly, even as an optimistic Met fan, I'm dubious that he can repeat last year. Cain & Santana represent guys who can step up to the top level; Lee and Mainre are fine as staff fodder, though hardly guys you want to make key components of a contender, and Igawa is...well, currently possibly in the Yankees bullpen. Some good stuff here, some question marks, but at least we don't see execrable forces like Woody Williams and Jason Marquist being trotted out for old time's sake.

Relief Pitching: Joe Nathan, Bobby Jenks, Mike Gonzalez. By contrast to the starters, they're going top heavy with a dice roll and a question mark. Nathan's as solid as they come, but Jenks could morph into Fatter Rob Dibble in a heartbeat. Gonzalez isn't closing....yet.....but may also have to contend with Rafael Soriano by the time the fork in Bob Wickman's back punctures his heart. Speaking of Fat Bob, doesn't it just seem like yesterday when he was the throw-in player in the Steve Sax-Melido Perez swap?

Breakout Candidate: While Brandon Webb & Jake Peavy get all the hype, I think I'd rather have Matt Cain than either of them. He's got the injury nexus issues to contend with, but I think he hits the next level this year and contends for the Cy Young.

On the Wrong Side of the Hill: Rich Aurilia? Meet Melvin Mora, your competition for Most Irrelevant and Misguided Fantasy Pickup. Beyond this exercise in silliness, you've gotta think the cliff is approaching rapidly for Thome. He was pretty awesome last year, but this may be the last year you get out of him before he hits Griffey Status.

X-Factor: Kei Igawa might be the definition of this category. Despite having some cute-ass kids (right), he doesn't have a spot in the rotation yet, though you have to think that Carl Pavano will give him every chance to make it happen. Igawa was billed as the Japanese Ted Lilly. Considering the Yanks threw away the American Lilly for Jeff Weaver, that's damnation by faint praise to the nth power.

Verdict: There's a master plan here, and it's starting to take shape. The outfield hitting is tremendous, and there's some great kids with upside in the infield, coupled with some interesting flyers. The starting pitching is allllllmost there, it's precisely one ace shy of being top-shelf; by contrast, the relievers are top-heavy and without any depth whatsoever. I think these guys contend....in 2008. This looks like an excellent year for consolidation and lining up chess pieces to make master strokes for contending next year, including perhaps some sharp trades and infield pieces being picked up. Unless Cain & Santana bust out, in which case, a shot at the money is NOT out of the question.

Season Preview: Hand Banana

Team Hand Banana

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I'm not sure what it says about the phallocentric nature of our society that, while the tomato never really took off as a hand fruit, the banana looms large on the snacking horizon. Thus the picture at right, which isn't at all about adding visual appeal to the page, but instead about celebrating a young lady's clever attempt to reclaim the symbol of the banana from the patriarchy. Also, she has pretty lips.

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But what, you may ask, does this have to do with the fantasy baseball team which is theoretically the subject of this post? First off, screw you for doubting. More to the point, much like the banana-centric phallocracy that swooped in to oppress the historical power of women (or so I read in that DaVinci Code book), the Hand Banana franchise has swooped into our league and given the older teams an object lesson in phallocratic oppression by pretty well sticking it in the league's collective pooper over the past few years. Generally, when a league adds a new guy, care is taken to make sure that the newbie is incompetent. That care was lacking here, as this franchise has been hovering near the top of the standings from the get-go. This year's edition is no different, with the team poised to be hanging around the money yet again.

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Infield

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The infield is the strength of the team, with young and good players all the way around the horn in Brian McCann, Ryan Howard, Robinson Cano, Jimmy Rollins, and David Wright. Not an old or sucky guy in the bunch, which takes some doing. McCann is one of the 3 or so catchers who have separated themselves from the pack at the position, and thus give their owners a big leg up on the league. Cano and Rollins provide wheels, while Howard and Wright generally kick the shit out of the ball. Since I can't find anything mean to say about this group, I'm going to say nothing at all.

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Outfield

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I like Carl Crawford to make The Leap this season. He's still young, but the Rays now have enough offensive talent around him that his R and RBI totals should inch up. He also showed better patience last year, boosting his isolated patience up to a respectable .043. Hideki Matsui's value is more in his durability than his rate stats, but he gets enough PAs in that Yankee lineup to amass useful counting stat totals. Curtis Granderson is a great guy to have on your team in real life, but maybe less so in a fantasy league which doesn't mandate that a team start a CF.

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Pitching

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The starters make up the All-Reversion to the Mean Team, with Jered Weaver, Bronson Arroyo, and Andy Pettitte all likely to regress based on their peripherals or league changes. Guys moving from the NL to AL last year picked up about an extra 0.50 on their ERAs, which would put Pettitte in the 4.80-range this year after his move to the Yankees. He may pick up enough W's to be helpful, but he's probably a touch overvalued at this point. Arroyo's performance fell off pretty good in his second full year in Boston, as teams learned to lay off his frisbee slider, and to stack their lineups with lefties (who traditionally torch Arroyo). Assuming the NL isn't completely brain-dead, I think he's a candidate to fall back more than a simple reversion to the mean would indicate.

...

There are some fun long shot guys like Daniel Cabrera and Hong-Shih Kuo hanging around the bench, but the realistic upside for those guys might not be better than the regressed performance of the front-line starters. There are also plenty of closers on hand ; however, they're mainly of the second-tier sort, so the 'pen won't be much help in stabilizing the staff's WHIP or ERA. The staff is functional, and will keep the team competitive, but one or more pitching trades willl probably be needed down the stretch to push the team over the top.

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Prognosis: Given what's here, plus the GM's acumen, this team is one of the favorites to hit the board.

Kentucky Derby Top Twelve

With only one or two prep races to go, here's this man's list of the Top Twelve Derby contenders. Given that Todd Pletcher & Doug O'Neill each have 6 legitimate contenders, perhaps they should just run a match race on the first Saturday in May.

1. Any Given Saturday. Pletcher's best hope, but you have to hope the Tampa Bay Derby didn't take too much out of him.

2. Great Hunter. O'Neill's best hope; the big knock on him is that he's only going to have 2 starts this year, a trick that's only worked once since 1943. Still, he has a solid foundation from last year with 7 races, so he's logical. His Robert Lewis was sublime.

3. Street Sense. This is the first Juvenile winner that's got a legit shot in the Kentucky Derby since Unbridled's Song in 1996. Sorry Wilko.

4. Circular Quay. Dead closer ran a big one last out, but you have to worry about him hitting severe traffic problems on the big day. For examples of this, see Victory Gallop, Medaglia d'Oro, Atswhatimtalkinabout, and any horse I've bet on since Real Quiet.

5. Notional. Now here's a horse that gets no credit whatsoever--his Risen Star win was written off as meh because Circular Quay almost fell in the process. He ran well, is well bred, and has super connections. What's not to like? Great horse to future at 20-1 or greater right now.

6. Nobiz Like Shobiz. Everyone's favorite, but I'm not buying. At some point, you have to improve between ages 2 and 3.

7. Scat Daddy. Well, he did win the Fountain of Youth, but they crawled home, and he's by Johannesburg. Pletcher's got plenty more that are interesting.

8. Ravel. He's immensely talented, but is going to hit the Derby with 4 career starts and only 2 starts this year. That. Never. Works. Future him for the Travers if you can.

9. Chelokee. Now here's a sleeper who hasn't won a stakes race yet. Gets a chance finally this weekend in the Lane's End. Cherokee Run shouldn't sire a Derby winner, but then again, neither should have Elusive Quality.

10. Hard Spun. Moves up with a good race in the Lane's End, moves off with a bad one.

11. Curlin. Immensely talented but he's run twice. TWICE!

12. Cobalt Blue. Whipping Grapelli in the San Felipe does not make a great horse.

Season Preview: It's Enrico Palazzo

Team It's Enrico Palazzo

[ed. note--The editor in me is dying to tack a "!" on to the team name, but I'm just going to have a beer instead.]

Yes indeed, it is Enrico Palazzo, another of the many teams in this league named after characters from '80's screwball comedies. The trend (which admittedly includes me) has pushed the league as a whole right up against that line between "Hipsters Showing Off Wacky Pop-Culture Knowledge" and "Basement-Dwelling Junior High Power-Dorks". The first guy to reference Tolkien, or Dungeons & Dragons--any elf-intensive medium, really--is going to tip the balance in the wrong direction. So be careful out there, people.

Skipping lightly over that, IEP(!) are one of the set of 5-6 or potential runners this season. They're one of about 4 teams who'll be competing for the top offensive slots, and, like most of those teams, they've basically bought themselves a lottery ticket on the pitching side. The main problem here isn't really the quality of players on the roster, but rather the allocation of those players across the starting lineup.

Infield

Here's the prime example of what I mean: IEP(!) is starting Hanley Ramirez and Michael Young, who look to be 2 of the best 4-5 fantasy shortstops in baseball this season. Problem is, there's only one starting SS slot. The other guy is going to get plugged in at UTIL. While each of Ramirez and Young are worth playing, they lose a lot of their value when they're played out of position--a rotating cast of other players could have provide the same value at less cost in the draft.

Of course, either Ramirez or Young would make fun trade bait, so it's premature to criticize--the possibility is certainly there for the proverbial trade that helps both teams. If IEP(!) could turn one of those two into a real closer and some other goodies, they might have the same aggregate talent, but a better shot at racking up points across all categories.

Outfield

The team has hitched his wagons pretty decisively to the Blue Jays' bandwagon here, starting both Vernon Wells and Alex Rios. Rios got about 85% of the way to breaking out last year before being slowed by an infected leg. Senor Palazzo appears to be hoping that the season Rios will finish what he started last year. Beyond that there's what's left of Gary Sheffield, who is moving to a pitchers' park this season. I'm of the opinion that Sheffield will have a bounce-back season, as he strikes me as the kind of guy who will channel his rage at the Yankees into better performances at the plate. Might want to keep him off first base, though. Also, just for public safety reasons, they might want to keep him away from small children. And old people. And fans. And most forms of plant life.

Pitching

Well, Jake Peavy is pretty awesome, and C.C. Sabathia had a great under-the-radar season last year. After that, things get iffy. There's the good pitcher who doesn't strike anyone out (Chien-Ming Wang), the bad pitcher who doesn't strike anyone out (Jeremy Sowers), and the 50 year-old Cuban guy (Jose Contreras--though he's better than fellow 50 year-old Cuban Livan Hernandez if only because Contreras doesn't yet have an arthritic neck).
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at right: Jose Contreras's great-grandson, Steve.
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Also, any time Stormy Weathers is your #2 closer, your plan can't be to punt SPs and rely on your bullpen guys to carry the day in ERA and WHIP. The team needs Sowers and fellow young "gun" Cole Hamels to come up pretty big, otherwise this team will be rummaging around in the Jamie Moyer/Woody Williams scrap heap pretty quickly.

Prognosis: Close, but no cigar--without a trade for some pitching.

Season Preview: The Sex Cannons

Let's just get the obvious out of the way now, and state that Kissing Suzy Kolber's Rex Grossman confession was the greatest thing posted on the web last year. Well, ok, maybe behind this. But still, tremendous. And it takes a tremendous man to try to turn his squad into the Fantasy Cumslingers. Without further ado, let's look at the Commish's squad.

History: While he's been nothing but stellar as the impresario of our league, the Benevolent and Lovely Commissioner has come up a bit short in the standings, still showing 0fer in the money category. Last year's results sadly were not atypical; a strong-looking draft that yielded a boatload of injuries and sank under the morass into 11th place. Still, a slew of swift actions have put them back into the realm of contention this year; they started the year with extra picks from Evil Empire & President Skroob, and leveraged them (along with 2008's first rounder) into Texieria, Cabrera, Tejada and Chris Young. Too bad none of them pitch. Regardless, this is definitely a big year for the Grossmans.

Infield: A.J Pierzynski (C); Mark Texieria (1B); Dan Uggla (2B); Miguel Cabrera (3B); Miguel Tejada (SS). Well then, we're a bit all over the place here, but mostly with good stuff. Trading for Cabrera and making him an alternative +2 guy was a very, very wise move, and one that's going to be even more curious come 2008 when both he & Halladay are up for extensions. No matter. The troika of T-Rex, Tejada & Cabrera should combine for about 90 dingers, a helluva total to get from your infield, and that's while posting extraordinary OBP's and RBI's. Pierzynski seems ensconced in the role of Catcher That Won't Destroy My Categories, which is admirable, if in effect just shrinking your starting lineup from 9 to 8 guys. Uggla is curious---is he the next Rafael Furcal or the next Carlos Febles? My money's on the latter, but CW says he ends up somewhere in the middle.....Adam Kennedy on the cream & clear, maybe?

Outfield/DH: Carlos Beltran, Carlos Lee, Chris Young, Willy Taveras. Beltran needs no introduction, and Lee is a perfect 2nd fantasy outfielder: not good enough to carry a team on his own, but a great building block. Also it's good for the Grossmans that he'll be exiting his 1-keeper spot phase promptly when he hits 300 pounds and becomes Kevin McReynolds. Much more intriguing are the kids Young & Taveras in the remainder spots; Taveras is good for one thing only, steals, but there's the question of whether he'll get as many chances in Colorado. Young should be good, but then again, couldn't we have said that about Jeremy Hermida last year?

Bench: Jeremy Hermida (OF); Nick Johnson (DL); Orlando Cabrera (SS); Melvin Mora (3B). Hey, speaking of Jeremy Hermida! He's about the only positive to draw from this bench, which will expand by two when Johnson gets put in the hospital and Mora gets cut for not being any good. Cabrera is roughly the definition of fantasy replacement level, but with Tejada being the iron horse that he is, I can't see him getting much PT, and he has zero trade value. Hermida aside, this bench is a weak spot for this squad.

Starting Pitching: Roy Halladay; Jeremy Bonderman; Dan Haren; John Patterson; Derek Lowe; Jeff Francis; Gustavo Chacin. The Gator Gals have pretty much built a staff by the book: 1 Ace + 2 young kids + 2 injury cases + 1 Vet + 1 flyer from Colorado = Staff. Result? Well, assuming Halladay doesn't have another freak injury this year and Bonderman & Haren continue to churn out 400 above-average innings, this is a very solid staff.

Relief Pitching: Chris Ray; Akinori Otsuka; Adam Wainwright. No really, that's it. And consider that Wainwright's slotted for the 4th spot in the Cardinals rotation and Otsuka has to worry about Eric Greg Gagne in the bullpen with him, not to mention the fact that ALers are about to catch up to him as quickly as NLers did in '05. Chris Ray is the sole bright light to look at here in terms of relief, and if he's your panacea, you need a new plan. If this area isn't improved, this is a 2nd division team for sure.

Breakout Candidate: Is this the year that Jeremy Bonderman turns into the stud we expect? Geniuses like Shandler and Benson have been saying that forever, and he's got some Sheets-circa-2003 karma going for him. He remains a second tier starter till proven otherwise, but this is his big chance. On this team, he's the difference between 6th place and 2nd place in wins.

On the Wrong Side of the Hill: Well, Melvin Mora might define this category. Shall we stick with real players? Tejada, while probably still in his prime, is also probably heading in the wrong direction after too many B-12 injections and being surrounded by a hideous lineup. When he sees that BJ Surhoff and David Newhan are on the May 1 lineup card, I gotta think he'll be pissed he didn't get traded to Anaheim last year.

X-Factor: The wiseguys would obviously say Hermida, but he's almost window-dressing on this roster with that outfield, and seems to be trade bait for a closer. The real X-factor is getting a bonafide 4th pitcher off this team, and of these stooges, I think Francis has the most upside. If the Gator Gals are trying to ride Derek Lowe's melanoma to glory, they're gonna fall short, but if Francis steps up and becomes a humidor-induced ace, the staff goes from Solid to Serious.

Verdict: The offense is a smartly constructed roster, with some big names, big talents, and coverage in all five categories. The relievers are nothing shy of a disaster, but there's always trade bait. The real question's going to come down to what precisely Haren, Patterson & Co. have to offer this year; it's unlikely they're going to have deflated ERAs, but trying to ride 55 points of offense + wins + strikeouts to the top ain't crazy. This looks like a contender, though with some holes that keep it from favoritism.