GOULET! Goulet? Hey, Goulet? Oh, Sh*t...

Just a brief request to pour some out for Robert Goulet, who passed away today after kicking the Red Sox off on their World Series run by singing "The Impossible Dream" on Opening Day. Next year, the Sox should finish off Michael Flatley by having him dance with Jon Papelbon on Opening Day.

Offseason Fantasy Keeper Torpedos

One of the joys of participating in a fantasy keeper league, as opposed to the standard single-year roto league, is that the keeper format creates rooting interests for team owners during the offseason. An offseason trade or free agency switch can dramatically change a player's fantasy value through the magic of differences in home park effects, league talent levels, and managerial styles.

For example, the 2005-06 trade that brought Josh Beckett from Florida to to Boston saw Beckett go from a defensive-minded team which played in a pitchers' park in a weak offensive league, to a defensively agnostic (at best) team which played in a hitters' park in the best offensive division in a strong offensive league. Perhaps unsurprisingly, Beckett's ERA and WHIP both tanked the next season, before rebounding in '07, when Beckett realized that Jason Varitek had more than one finger with which to call pitches.

So who are the players who need to avoid torpedoing their fantasy value with offseason moves?

1. Mike Lowell

Lowell had what looks to be his career fantasy season this year, hitting .324 and knocking in 120 runs. The keys to his success were threefold: (1) he avoided his trademark second-half slump which, over the course of his career, has cost him over 70 points of SLG after the All-Star break; (2) he played in a home park that meshed nicely with his right-handed pull swing; and (3) for good chunks of the year he hit behind OBP machines Kevin Youkilis (.390), David Ortiz (.445), and Manny Ramirez (.388).

As a result of number 3, Lowell had more plate appearances with runners on base than any American League 3B besides A-Rod (about whom, more later). If Lowell jumps ship to another team, he will likely lose the benefit of the two latter breaks. And his age and workload this season both would seem to make another second-half swoon likely. Red flags abound.

2. Alex Rodriguez

First off, a disclaimer that "torpedoing" is a relative term with A-Rod. Unlike Lowell, who's destination might move him on/off a team's keeper list, A-Rod would be a keeper even if he ended up playing in a gravity well on Jupiter. That said, A-Rod had two things going in his favor this year that he might not have on another club, especially San Francisco or Washington, two of his rumored destinations.

First, as noted above, A-Rod had more chances to hit with runners on base than did any other 3B in the American League. But it goes further than that: not only did he lead his league/position in PA's with runners on last year, he led all of major league baseball in that department, with 393 trips to the plate with ducks on the pond. The second-highest total (amassed by Ryan Howard) was 363, meaning A-Rod had 26 more shots with men on. For context, that 26-PA gap was greater than the gap between Howard in second place, and Andruw Jones in 12th place last season. It is extremely unlikely that any other team's lineup could generate as many RBI chances for A-Rod next season.

Second, A-Rod had better lineup protection in New York than he would in San Francisco or Washington. Jorge Posada + Hideki Matsui >>>>>> Ray Durham + Rich Aurillia or Austin Kearns + Ryan Church. There would be virtually no reason to pitch to A-Rod. That would help his OBP, and thus maybe his R or SB totals, but the HR/RBI dropoff has the chance to be significant.

Of course, none of the above applies if A-Rod ends up in Philly, another spot El Angelo proclaims as a likely destination. Assuming he doesn't get beaned by a D-cell thrown from the 700 level, A-Rod would put up stupidiculous numbers in Philly.

3. Yankee Relievers

The Yankees obviously have a ton of questions to answer this offseason, though for my money the fate of The Fruitbat is the most intruiging. Mariano Rivera is as closely identified with the Yankees as any recent player besides Derek Jeter. Rivera has also been that rarest of commodities for the fantasy player, a reliable source of saves and solid peripherals over the sort of extended period comtemplated by a keeper league.
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That said, Rivera makes the torpedo list this year. A move to just about any other team would decrease Rivera's save opportunities, as the Yankees figure to blow out fewer teams next year, which means more opps for their closer.
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Similarly, if Mo goes the Yankees will be sorely tempted to plug Joba Chamberlain into Mo's old role, figuring they could just install Joba on the mound, drape him with mosquito netting, and enjoy another 10 years of top-notch relieving. Thing is, most relievers get hurt, most young pitchers of any kind get hurt, and new Yankee manager Joe Girardi fragged multiple young arms in his short stint in Florida. Exploeded shoulders have no fantasy value.

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I think Joba's best shot to avoid injury is for him to get plugged into the rotation, where his usage would be more regular, and easier to monitor, than it would be as closer. If Mo comes back, Joba would almost certainly start. Thus, Mo has the possibility to pull a Crazy Ivan and torpedo a fantasy career both coming and going.

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So there you have it--three easy storylines that will let keeper league participants continue to view baseball news in as narrow and self-interested a fashion as possible over the months to come. Fire up the hot stove.

Where Will A-Rod Go?

Part One of the modern Ibsen drama, The Ballad of Alex Rodriguez, has played out to perfection, as he's opted out of his contract and is no longer a member of the Yankees, foregoing $81 million in the process, on the expectation that he'll get $300 million or so from his next deal, along with God-knows-what-else. Which brings us to Part Two---where the hell is he going to go?

Here at the GRBG, we do nothing but speculate and comment on where the hell players go, went, and are going in fantasy sports, so why not take it to the next logical step and examine it for real baseball. For kicks, let's examine in reverse order of likelihood each team having Mr. Rodriguez man the hot corner next year and some manish groupies following close behind. With aplomb...

No Shot in Hell

30. Kansas City. They've already got a pair of young 3B's in Teabag and Gordon, why add another one and double your payroll?

29. Minnesota. Carl Pohlad won't spend $20 million on the best pitcher in baseball, who's already on his team. There's a better chance they start playing their games in the Mall of America than this happening.

28. Pittsburgh. He is not a worthy heir to the throne of Jeff King.

27. Oakland. That would just compound Billy Beane's $10 million fuck-up known as Eric Chavez. Speaking of which, has there been a better mulligan than the one the A's got from Giambi turning down that $90 million deal before he went to the Yanks? Besides Juan Gone saying no thanks to Detroit's insane $140 million deal.

26. Milwaukee. Ryan Braun's a hideous fielder, but they're not breaking the bank here. Besides, why on earth would any superstar willingly go to Wisconsin?

25. Tampa Bay. Well, maybe you'd go to Wisconsin over the TropDome.

Deja Vu

24. Texas. Tom Hicks just got a $30 million get out of jail free card, and he's more likely to waste it on Carlos Silva than invest it in a guy he already paid to get rid of.

23. Seattle. In terms of reunions, this would rank just below Bobby Bo's 1999 return to the Mets.

Cheapskates

22. Toronto. JP Riccardi throws money away left and right at crap like B.J. Ryan and John McDonald, leaving him with nothing to spend here. Too bad, given that the Canadien rate would actually make this feasible.

21. St. Louis. Would be a nice idea, but how the hell are they going to fit him into the payroll?

20. Cleveland. Or them?

19. Cincinnati. Or them?

18. Florida. Some people are suggesting this is a real possibility. Really? They have no stadium, no fans, no pitching, no marketability and no intelligence running the ship. You would have to sell him the franchise for this to happen, and he's worth at least double the franchise's value.

17. Atlanta. There's enough payroll questions here that this would make no sense at all.

16. Arizona. Sorry, I can't see any reason why a team that's just rising to respectability and with a slew of fun young prospects all around would spend 1/2 their payroll on one player.

15. Colorado. The prospect of A-Rod hitting in Coors is neat, but c'mon.

Intriguing, but Unlikely

14. Chicago White Sox. They are set at 3B for a while with Crede and that kid who stinks and whose name I'm too lazy to look up, and Reinsdorf hasn't gone apeshit in the pocketbook for anyone since Albert Belle. Still, the notion of A-Rod and Ozzie Guillen together would define hilarity.

13. San Diego. They have a titanic hole on that side of the infield, and man they could use his bat. But if he's serious about 800 dingers, do you want to spend the rest of your career in that park?

12. Baltimore. Never count out Angelos to do something insane, like offer A-Rod $400 million, the Fort McHenry Tunnel, and dinner with Boog for life.

11. Boston. They'd have to commit themselves to not re-signing Manny after next year, which means you'd basically lose him for the whole year anyway, and their WS MVP was their third-baseman, who's universally loved by Beantown. Even if you let him walk, you could just move Youk over to the hot corner, and spend 60% of the money on T-Rex the following year. Plus Bill Simmons would keel over and die.

10. New York Yankees. Sorry, I think he's done there. They're still an outside shot in case they can work it out for the cheap, but that seems unlikely.

The Wild Cards

9. New York Mets. For A-Rod, this poses the same problems as the Yankees, minus the tradition and good will. It also makes zero sense, as the Mets are set on the left side of the infield until 2014, and won't pay the luxury tax, and should instead be saving up for the Santana Derby. Regardless, never count out Omar to do something we don't expect.

8. Houston. New GM needs a spark, some talent and a reason to live. This would qualify. Can see this team re-using the money that it just got back from Bagwell & Biggio on a new cornerstone 3B. Can't really see A-Rod returning to the state of Texas, let alone a bad team.

7. Washington. See, now this would make a ton of sense, as they're opening a new park, are embarking on new ownership, and he'd put a veritable face on the franchise. And let's face it, Washington should, once they get going, be a team with revenue in the top quartile of baseball. Still, this just seems too out of the blue to happen, as again, wouldn't he get killed for joining a team that's only 30 games out of first?

Contenders with Roster Flaws

6. Detroit. Had they not dealt for Renteria, I would move them up a lot. But they did, and while they're obviously gunning for the next year or two, this would be such a massive payroll jump (on top of Renteria), that I can't see it.

5. Los Angeles Dodgers. If Torre & Mattingly end up here, A-Rod doesn't. That simple. If they don't, then they're back in the mix for real.

Contenders

4. Los Angeles Angels. Moreno can whine about payrolll till he's blue in the face. Hey buddy, nobody told you to overpay for Gary Matthews and his pharmacist by $45 million. Since Dallas McPherson is no more, and I think the next contract for Vlad will be too expensive anyway, why not make the investment here?

3. Chicago Cubs. Downgrade because of the ownership flux. If someone were in place, I have to think they'd sign him pronto.

2. Philadelphia. The infield would be A-Rod, Rollins, Utley, and Ryan Howard. Your outfield can have both Canseco brothers and Rusty Greer's corpse, and you'd be okay. It's a major market where they're a bunch of negative nuts as fans, but want a winner badly. He would probably crack 1000 homers in their park. And with Burrell set to expire next year, there's room to grow the payroll. This scares me, because it's too easy. As a Met fan, I'm praying that this, the logical answer for everyone, does NOT happen.

1. San Francisco. The math here is too simple: A-Rod would be a $4-$5 million increase from the big contracts they're losing, and it buys them time to re-build the surrounding team and farm system. It's a great baseball town and a real city, but the pressure wouldn't be ridiculous. And they could thrive through mediocrity for 10 years, and everyone would be happy. The real negative. Having to listen to Chris Russo complain about him and Tim Lincecum for the rest of the decade. Shoot me now.

That Word...I Do Not Think It Means What You Think It Means

Colorado Rockies owner Charlie Monfort has already demonstrated an inclination towards reality-avoidance, as epitomized by his claim that "Christians, and what they've endured, are some of the strongest people in baseball." Because, you know, Christian ballplayers endure a lot as famous, wealthy members of the dominant religion in America.

However, Charlie has outdone himself with this pronouncement in the wake of Colorado's sack-drowning at the hands of the Red Sox in this year's Series:

"These guys did amazing things," Monfort said. "I think this team is a better team than Boston. It would have been nice to have another two, three, four days. We'll wake up tomorrow and go, 'There's no baseball game to go to,' but what a deal they did. It's an amazing thing they accomplished just to get here."

That statement is, if you think about it, fairly genius. Follow the chain: Christians are strong and awesome; the Rockies are Christian; therefore the Rockies must be strong and awesome. External data proving or disproving the chain is unnecessary (and possibly immoral).

That is a pretty damn good way of preempting questions about the WS loss: "Charlie, can you explain why your team was swept?" "They weren't swept. In Heaven, that is. Down here, results were more equivocal."

So here's to you, Mr. Monfort. Would that we all could selectively deny reality like you. The world would be a much more interesting place.

Three Trades Both Teams Lost

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Tonight, millions of sports fans around the country will sit down to enjoy Game 1 of this year's World Series between the Colorado Rockies of Jesus and the Everyone Hates Boston Red Sox. Given the disparity in the two teams' history, payroll, and fanbase, most of the focus during the telecast is going to be on the differences between the clubs.
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But that focus overlooks the odd bond between the Rox and Sox: they have partnered in exactly three trades, all of which qualify as among the most pointless in major league history. We here at the GRBG are nothing if not completists, so we thought we'd break these dispensible trades down in unnecessary detail. Onward!

1) July 27, 2000: Colorado trades Rolando Arrojo, Rich Croushore, Mike Lansing, and cash to the Red Sox for Jeff Frye, Brian Rose, John Wasdin, and Jeff Taglienti (minors).
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So the biggest name in that trade is . . . Rolando Arrojo, I guess? And that's really just because he was the Jose Contreras of his time, drawing a lot of interest when he came over to the States after defecting from Cuba. Let's briefly run down the post-trade feats of each player, shall we?

• Rolando Arrojo: Immediately after the trade, started 13 games for the Sox, putting up an ERA of 5.05 while the Sox fell from 2.5 GB to 9 GB in a span of 6 weeks. Pitched two more seasons out of the bullpen and was out of baseball after 2002.
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• Rich Croushore: I have been a Red Sox fan all my life, and I have never heard of this pinwheel. Threw 4.2 innings for the Sox, and never played in the big leagues again. Last seen selling crop insurance outside of Alliance, Nebraska (maybe).
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• Mike Lansing: Put up an unfathomable line of .194 /.230/.223 for the rest of the '00 season. For the sabermetrically inclined, that works out to an OPS+ of 14, meaning he was 86% less valuable than the average major league hitter. Or, looked at another way, only 14% more effective at the plate than a cadaver would have been, with arguably less range than the cadaver in the field. Sox fans hated him at a near-Jack Clarkian level.
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• Jeff Frye: Actually played pretty well for Colorado after the trade, but was not re-signed, and was out of the majors after the '01 season. The major career event on his wikipedia page? "On August 31, 2001 at a game in the SkyDome, aphids were in the ballpark causing him to wear a mask on his face for the whole game." While that's an ignominious way to be remembered, it does make him smarter than Joba Chamberlain.
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• Brian Rose: One of the many, many failed Red Sox pitching prospects to come along between Clemens and Papelbon. Appeared in all of 12 games for Colorado.

• John Wasdin: Still referred to by Red Sox fans as either "Way Back" Wasdin or "White Flag" Wasdin. Pictured at right in his Yomiuri Giants uniform. 'Nuff said.

2) December 19, 2001: Colorado trades Pokey Reese to the Red Sox for Scott Hatteberg.

Arguably the single most pointless trade in MLB history, as on December 21, 2001, just two days after the trade was made, both Reese and Hatteberg were released by their new employers.

Reese was released because the Red Sox belatedly realized that they did not want to risk going to arbitration with him. Hatteberg was released because . . . well, I don't know frankly. Still, when a trade results in an aggregate zero games played and 4 days of service time for its participants, it can pretty safely be characterized as dispensible, even if each player subsequently gained a measure of fame (Hatteberg for his portrayal in "Moneyball"; Reese for his status as mascot on the 2004 WS champion Red Sox).

3) March 30, 2005: Boston trades Byun-Hyung Kim and cash to the Rockies for Charles Johnson and Chris Narveson.

Ah yes, the day Theo took poor B-H Kim out back behind the barn for tea, sympathy, and a shotgun blast to the nape of the neck. Kim gets a bad rap for his late-season failings in Boston in '03; Grady Little pretty much wore Kim's arm down to a nub because he didn't trust any of his other relievers. Perhaps unsurpisingly, then, Kim was never an above-average pitcher in 2.5 years with Colorado.

Showing the increase in their internal efficiency under the Epstein regime, the Sox released Charles Johnson on the same day he was acquired, lowering the Reese record by two days. Narveson also never played for the Sox.

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So there you have it: three trades, involving 12 players, that yielded a total of about 8 remarkably undistinguished seasons. If that history is any indication, this year's World Series will have the entertainment value of a Princeton-Georgetown football game, and possibly comparable ratings as well. Let's all pray these teams think of something else to do over the next 10 days other than play Pass the Trash.

Isiah Thomas' Tab

We do a lot of fantasy baseball on here, some real baseball, and a little horse racing for kicks. Let's switch gears for a second and focus on everyone's favorite New York executive: Isiah Thomas.

Articles have been written left and right asking the obvious question of what the hell it takes for Isiah to get fired. Clearly, being found to have sexually harassed a subordinate minority female employee is not enough. Clearly, sucking at your job is also not enough. But is the real reason that the Zeke continues to abide simply because the folks at the Garden to can't do math?

We here at the GRBG thought it might be useful to put aside the ethical and sporting arguments against Isiah, and focus instead on the cold, hard cash at stake. Let's figure out exactly how much money Isiah has cost the Knicks since his reign began in 2003. We can divide the expenses into a few categories:

Wasted Players' and Coaches' Salaries

Oh how many crappy ideas were brought and floated to our Knickerbockers. Let us count the ways (player salary info from Hoops Hype):

1. Larry Brown: $8M in salary, plus another $18.5M to buy out the remainder of his contract. For those keeping score at home, that comes out to $1.15M per win over the course of Brown's tenure as coach.


2. Jerome James: 5/$29M


3. Jared Jeffries: 5/$30M


4. Frederic Weis: Wait, we can't blame that one on Isiah, can we? Fuck. $0.


5. Jalen Rose: 2/$31.9M, though some of that was bought out when he was waived. As it's pretty obvious that we're piling on Isiah here, we'll use the full number, since Rose could have sat around and collected about $30M of that total if he'd wanted to.


6. Steve Francis: I suppose this "got" them Zach Randolph, but only in the sense that it was a trade enabler, since Portland waived him before he collected his baggage from the airplane. Still a waste at 1/$13.8M on the Knicks' books.


7. Stephon Marbury: Approximately 3/$59M

Total: $158.3M

Luxury Tax: This is tough to calculate, given that Isiah did inherit some bad contracts, so it's tough to know exactly how much of the overrun is his fault. That said, he's been GM for a few years now, and the Knicks are on the hook for $44M in tax payments for the upcoming season. So we feel pretty comfortable putting that 44 large on Zeke's tab at this point. That brings the salary + tax total up to $202.3M.

Sexual Harassment Suit

Jury Verdict: $11.6 million. There's a chance that'll get reduced by the 2nd Circuit or that they'll just settle out. There's also a chance they're going to waste money on an appeal that's going nowhere. Which brings us to...

Legal Fees. Well, the Garden hired a Park Avenue firm with a very nice reputation, who had to attend and conduct about a dozen depositions and a 3-week trial. Assuming the name partner handled much of the matter (i.e., at a high billing rate), along with the usual cadre of a junior partner, senior associate, and random junior lackies, we're looking at a fair approximation of $800,000 in legal fees here. And if they're serious about appealing, that's another $200k they're probably going to outlay.

Total: $12.6 million

Total Cost to Knicks: $214.9M

Income Generated by Isiah: $0

Seriously, do you think anyone has spent another nickel on the Knicks because this guy's in charge? If anything, he's cost them season ticket subscriptions and hot dog sales. Still, we're not stupid enough to try to speculate on that.

We also realize the Garden and Cablevision have a reservoir of funds that's matched by Blackstone, Coolmore Farms, and Saudi Arabia. But for god's sake, if you're a person with an iota of common sense, wouldn't you just fire someone who cost your company a cool $215M? Has Cablevision turned into GM overnight?

Perhaps We've Been Too Subtle . . .

As we draw towards the close of 2007, two trends have become increasingly apparent to observant Americans: (1) the country is going to hell in a handbasket, courtesy of a cabal of deranged Southerners; and (2) Boston sports teams are threatening to dominate as they have never dominated before. What most Americans don't seem to have realized, however, is that these two trends are inextricably linked. Consider the following:

For many years, Massholes had a disproportionately large voice in the federal government. From JFK and RFK in the executive branch, to Teddy Kennedy in the Senate, to Tip O'Neill in the House, prominant Bostonians drank and philandered their ways through years of power and influence in Washington. The country responded by strengthening civil rights for women and minorites, expanding the social safety net, winning the Cold War, and implementing new rules designed to liberalize the passing game in pro football. Life was good.

The tradeoff, however, was obvious: in return for heightened political influence, Boston agreed to throw the athletic competitions that mattered most to conservative yahoos. Thus, for forty years the Patriots were incompetent, the Red Sox infuriating, and big-time college sports non-existent. Even the Celtics agreed to use only white players, though that one backfired. (The Bruins were left alone, because nobody cares about placating the Canadians.)

Now, however, we've been subjected to seven years of governance by residents of the South and Mountain West, who have done much to reverse the works of the Masshole years. Boston's influence at the federal level is at its lowest ebb. The result? The Patriots have won 3 Super Bowls in the GWB era, and are in prime position to win another. The Red Sox have won a World Series, and have a good chance to win another. The Celtics have added many large Negroes. (The Bruins remain anonymous. Still don't care about Canada.)

Still, the Southerners appear not to have noticed that Boston is trying to take away all that they hold athletically dear. Therefore, we've been forced to install Boston Freaking College as the #4 college football team in the country. Think about it, yahoos. College football is all you have left. Don't make us take that away as well. We're willing to let BC sink back down into the comfortable anonymity of Sweet 16 appearances, Frozen Four runs, and Meineke Car Care Bowl titles. But we need some reciprocity.

This is your last warning. If stuff doesn't start changing, and soon, not only will BC win the national title, but we'll be sending down Tom Brady to perform gay marriage ceremonies for your sons, Matt Ryan to perform abortions on your daughters, and Kevin Garnett to expand every single one of your wives' horizons. Let no one say they were not warned.

Where We Stand on the Breeders Cup

With the last round of real preps over, we're now 3 weeks away from the Extreme Racing Extravaganza known as the Breeders Cup. What's the you say? The Breeders Cup is a 2-day carnival of racing with eleven, count 'em, eleven races on varying surfaces, differing distances, and for different sexes and ages to determine championships. (It used to be 8 races, but they added three this year for kicks.) It goes without saying that we'll be doing a full preview down the road before the October 26-27 races at Monmouth Park, but where do we stand after this past weekend? Here's a quick look at the 11 races.

Classic: The pinnacle of the day, a 1 1/4 mile race on the dirt (same as the Kentucky Derby) for 3 year olds and up with a $5 million purse. Unlike in previous years, it looks like we're going to have the full compliment of important horses from this year. Derby and Preakness winners Street Sense and Curlin are pointing for this race, as is Derby runner-up Hard Spun and second-season star Any Given Saturday. (For what it's worth, these were three of the horses I loved in the Derby.) From the older set is Lawyer Ron, who is still unproven at 10 furlongs. In the fun longshot category, maybe we'll see European shipper Asiatic Boy come over and try to reverse his hideous grass form with a return to the dirt, on which he romped in Dubai back in March.

Turf: Europe's most prestigious race, the Prix d' Arc d' Triomphe, was held yesterday, won by Dylan Thomas, who may be coming stateside for the turf marathon. If he comes, he'll be 3-5 to establish himself as the best turf horse in the world. If he doesn't, then we're looking at a fun and open affair with zero appealing horses from the US and whatever else decides to make the journey across the Atlantic.

Distaff: The central race for the ladies, this race has become wide-open with the season ending injury to Rags to Riches and the defection of Nashoba's Key to the Filly & Mare Turf. The Pletcher pair of Panty Raid and Octave will get a ton of support, as with Lear's Princess, who vanquished Rags to Riches in her last, but keep your eyes open for Balance, who should relish returning to a 2-turn dirt race, Lady Joanne, winner of the prestigious Alabama, and Miss Shop, Alan Jerkens' best hope for his first BC win.

Filly & Mare Turf: The other big race on Saturday for the older fillies, this one will be centered around undefeated California sensation Nashoba's Key trying to 8-for-8 for her career, and mount an outsider's chance at the Horse of the Year crown. There's painfully little stateside that's looked close to her in terms of ability, as Wait a While has failed to follow up on her Eclipse winning three year old season and strong fillies Vacare, My Typhoon and Citronnade seem to lack the stoutness required for this 11 furlong affair. Sleeper: look to see if Flower Bowl upset winner Lahudood can make it two in a row for Kiaran McLaughlin.

Sprint: Fabulous Strike has all the fun stuff going for him--speed, record, and a trainer/connections that ESPN will love. So why am I dubious of him? Maybe it's because Greg's Gold in California should've won his race yesterday, or Mach Ride is a pair of good gate breaks from a fantastic year. A messy affair without a standout. And that's partially because...

Dirt Mile: ...the Breeders Cup has added a one-mile dirt race, which is going to siphon off horses like High Finance, Midnight Lute and Discreet Cat, who would otherwise try to get 6 furlongs, and instead are in this slightly longer distance. They'll get 80% of the action, but you're crazy if you overlook the rapidly improving Daaher. Speaking of things that are killing the BC Sprint, we have....

Filly Sprint: ...the second new Breeders Cup race, which is a sprint only for the gals. If Dream Rush and La Traviata run here, it'll be the most interesting duel of the day, but if the latter goes to fight the boys (for twice the dough), it'll take a rocket up Wild Gams' ass to get her to the front.

Mile: Always the most indecipherable race of the day, this edition will have the once-defeated Shakespeare at a short price against a ton of interesting Euros and Americans. Keep your eye on Shakis, who may improve off his tough start at Keeneland, a la Miesque's Approval last year.

Juvenile: We've failed to have a single 2yo colt look remotely impressive this year on the dirt. This race looks boring.

Juvenile Fillies: The only 2yo gal that's looked good so far has been Indian Blessing, and she's overrated. This race looks even more boring. Which leaves us with...

Juvenile Turf: A fascinating third new race for this year, which pits the youngins' on the grass, an area that gets absolutely no attention in the United States. Hell, if they had this race 2 years ago, Barbaro would have been the favorite. The lack of anything resembling prep races or a cohesive schedule in this field is going to lead to an eclectic field of Euros (Rio de Plata?), dirt converts (The Leopard) and blowout maiden winners (Prussian). Nobody knows what the hell to do with this race. Which probably makes it the best betting competition of the weekend.

We'll have a fuller set of previews in 2 weeks, but suffice to say, analyzing 125 horses this year ain't gonna be easy. Get your pencils and bankrolls ready.