Kentucky Derby Preview Part II: The Contenders

The early judgment on this year's crop of 3yos is that it's Eskendereya and a bunch of slowpokes. We're not so sure we agree with that. We heard the same thing last year, and then saw Mine That Bird win the Derby in stylish fashion, then Summer Bird turn into a very good 3yo, to say nothing of Quality Road's later development. There are a few horses here that we think can turn out to be nice ones.

What makes it tough to analyze early on whether or not it's a "good crop" of 3yos is a combination of Polytrack and modern training methods. Trainers nowadays take the "more is less" approach with training, which results in most of the horses running in the Derby having run under 7 times. It's tough to evaluate just how good a horse is when his experience is a couple of maiden races and stakes races. In addition, in the words of Bob Baffert, synthetic tracks made ordinary horses look good and good horses look ordinary. Together, both factors have made it tough to evaluate just how good this crop is.

Back to the countdown. Let's take a look at the top 9, starting with three horses that are going to take a lot more action at the windows than they deserve to.

The Wiseguy Division

9. Dublin. This horse has been getting hype and Derby talk since winning the Hopeful last September in Saratoga. Not unimportantly, that was his last victory. Since then, he's had 5 losses and a slew of excuses: bad trip, bad ride, bad luck, blah blah blah. The truth is that he did nothing in the Iroquois last year (on the very track they're running the Derby) and has lost to no-hopers Conveyance and Line of David this year. At 15-1, we'll look elsewhere.

8. Super Saver. Quite well-bred, this horse was all the rage this winter off his big win the Kentucky Cup last November. He's done nothing this year to back it up: he lost the Tampa Bay Derby to horses that returned to get trounced, and had every chance to win the Arkansas Derby and failed. The Pletcher/Calvin Borel combination guarantees he'll be overbet, especially because any plus you get from Borel is negated by this horse's front running style.

7. Ice Box. Everyone on earth thinks there's going to be a pace meltdown in the Derby and many have picked the Florida Derby winner to be the biggest beneficiary. We agree with the first half of that proposition, but are unsold on the second half. Yes, he looked good winning the Florida Derby and could circle the field with a big move on the turn if they run the first 6 furlongs like the Breeders Cup Sprint. It's also probable that they're overhyping this guy off of one race where he beat absolutely nobody (he's the only horse from the Florida Derby in this race) and as others have noted, his GSF from that day should be questioned because every stakes winner ran a new top figure. We love Nick Zito to pieces and won't be at all surprised to see him win, but is he worth a play at 8-1?

Could Win, But We're Against

6. Lookin at Lucky. The most consistent horse in the field, he's only lost twice, once when he had a trip from hell in the Breeders Cup Juvenile, and once when he had a trip from hell in the Santa Anita Derby. He's well-bred, well-connected, and always shows up. So why are we against him? It's not the post position--we think he'll break well, sit in about 10th position and be okay--we simply don't think he's fast enough. His only dirt start (the Rebel) was good not great, and we wonder if that was the best shot that he could fire. We don't see a lot of upside here, and think others offer a better chance to jump up for a big race, especially at better odds.

The Price Plays

5. Mission Impazible. While Super Saver and Discreetly Mine should get cooked by the pace and Devil May Care isn't quite right for this spot, this guy's a closer with nice distance breeding who should be able to work out a good trip. His credentials are almost identical to Ice Box, and he'll be three times the price. We can't see him winning, but we can see him hitting the board.

4. Jackson Bend. Never out of the exacta, this guy romped through the Florida Stallion Series last year, and was turned over to Nick Zito. He's followed that up by beating every horse he's faced except Winslow Homer and Eskendereya, neither of which are in this race. His breeding is fairly obscure (Hear No Evil out of a Tabasco Cat mare), and he lacks the explosiveness that you see in Derby winners. What he does have is the consistency to rate and run well that is seen in a lot of horses that hit the board in the Derby--think Musket Man last year, Bluegrass Cat in '06 and Imperialism in '04.

3. Stately Victor. After Sidney's Candy, here's the second biggest lightning rod horse of the race. Most are going to dismiss his 40-1 upset of the Blue Grass as a Polytrack fluke. We're not so sure (especially at 30-1). Well-bred for the dirt (horse of the decade Ghostzapper by multiple stakes winner Collect the Cash), he shouldn't have an issue getting the distance, should be near the back of the pack and benefit from the anticipated pace meltdown, and may be getting good at the right time, as 3 year olds are wont to do. Yeah, we know that the last three winners of the Blue Grass (Dominican, Monba and General Quarters) did jackshit in the Derby. But in a race lacking a standout, why not consider a horse that won his last race at a big price?

2. American Lion. Why is this guy getting no attention? He was heavily hyped after a good 2yo season, then had a hit-and-miss 3yo season: a loss in the Lewis with a bad trip, a poor showing in the San Felipe, then a win and GSF top in the Illinois Derby. Most are knocking the win as the product of being unchallenged on the lead. Maybe. We're more inclined to see a horse with excellent breeding (especially for the distance), one who doesn't need the lead but won't be a stone closer, and has underrated connections (David Flores is a very solid jockey; Eoin Harty is a trainer just waiting to win a big race). We like that he's shown he can run well on the dirt. Why can't he just be a horse that's improved once he took to the dirt?

The Pick

1. Awesome Act. In a strange year where the prohibitive favorite was an early scratch and the next two obvious horses have holes we don't like, we're picking a horse that doesn't quite resemble any previous Derby winner. He started off his career sprinting on the grass in Europe, then made the trip to the States for the BC Juvenile Turf, where he ran a fast closing 4th. Perhaps noticing that he's spectacularly bred to route on the dirt, underappreciated trainer Jeremy Noseda shipped him back to New York, where he closed well to win the Gotham. He ran a distant third in the Wood, but watch the replay: Leparoux was fighting him the entire way and the horse had nothing left for the stretch. And he threw a shoe. And he fit the "Eurobounce" to a tee--often horses from Europe will run big first time off the plane then regress in their second start.

We see a horse that has the breeding, connections, style and speed to get it done on Saturday. We like that Leparoux's the jockey; he's young, aggressive, and knows Churchill well enough to know that the horse's big move has to come on the far turn, not before or after. We like that he's training well. And for these reasons, we're picking him to win the 136th running of the Kentucky Derby.

Betting Strategy

We say this every year, but it's worth repeating: if you're betting $10 or less, just bet your pick to win! Everyone will be at least 3-1 on Saturday, and what's wrong with being right and tripling your money? If you're betting more than that, look at the exactas here--with a lot of horses going to be in the 8-1 to 20-1 range, they're going to offer great value--as well as the Oaks/Derby double (we like Blind Luck and Amen Hallelujah) or the Oaks/Woodford/Derby pick three (we like Blues Street and Battle of Hastings). All of those bets can be done somewhat affordably and give you a good chance at a 3- for 4-figure score.

Good luck everyone and enjoy the races!!

Kentucky Derby Preview Part I: The Pretenders

My brother has a theory about my track selections. Frequently before going to the track, be it Belmont Day, a summer day in Saratoga, the Breeders Cup, or whatever else, I'll examine the card, come up with 2-5 horses I like that day, and note to bet them. As Matt has observed, 90% of the time, one or more of those picks will be scratched and I'll be annoyed. He thoroughly enjoys mocking me for picking horses that always scratch and how it ruins my day at the races. And if I'm being honest, he's right.

This year he has a point in spades, as in early February I kinda-sorta liked Eskendereya, enough to put a future bet on him. I really liked him after his Fountain of Youth romp. And after his Wood win, he was written in at the top of this countdown in the blogger's version of blue ink. The plan was to debate who to put in the other slots for triples and superfectas and weighing whether or not a hedge was a good idea.

As Woody Allen once said, if you want to make God laugh, tell him your plans.

So here we are with the annual Derby countdown. In addition to reeling from last year's horrible selections, where the horse we placed #20 of 20 won the race, the horse we've liked since January isn't running. And as everyone else who follows racing knows, after Eskendereya, there are no standouts in this class. Any number of horses could win this race and would be 1/1000th the surprise that Mine That Bird was last year. Which makes this countdown something of a handicapping challenge for the GRBG, which we simultaneously relish and hate. Let's get to it.

Hey, Mine That Bird Won Last Year!

20. Homeboykris. Since winning the Grade 1 Champagne stakes last year in slow time, he's had a pair of well-beaten 5th place finishes in stakes company, a 2nd place finish in an allowance race to a horse that flopped miserably in the Florida Derby, and a 9-week vacation. Still, some people will be rooting for him on the hope that Don Zimmer would be in the winner's circle.

19. Make Music For Me. Has been ambitiously spotted in his 8 career starts, which have included 4 Grade 1's, a Grade 2 and an overnight stakes. From all that plus two maiden starts, he's only mustered one victory (in the overnight stakes) and some clunk up seconds behind Lookin at Lucky last year. Has never won on a synthetic surface or a dirt surface, and the Derby's a tough place to try to break that schneid.

18. Paddy O'Prado. If the Kentucky Derby were run on grass, he'd be one of the favorites. Since they're continuing the 130+ year tradition of running on the dirt, we'll downgrade his chances to next-to-none.

17. Dean's Kitten. Owned by Ken Ramsey and his wife, he's one of about 90 horses they own sired by turf star Kitten's Joy named ______'s Kitten, which is either a stupid form of advertising or a way of honoring your zillion grandchildren. The fact that Ramsey was willing to run another horse he owns (Pleasant Prince) 3 times in 4 weeks so he could have a contender in the Derby tells you all you need to know about this guy's chances.

16. Backtalk. This guy started his career 3-for-3 with wins in a pair of old schools juvenile stakes races, then fell apart once we hit longer distances. And by longer we mean over 7 furlongs--since going to that distance and longer, he's won a meaningless stakes race at a Louisiana slots parlor and finished a well-beaten third in Illinois.

Too Many Question Marks

15. Noble's Promise. Normally we'd be all over this guy because a great way to find value on Derby day is to look for a horse that was highly regarded, ran poorly in his last prep race with an excuse, and now is back and training well. He flopped in the Arkansas Derby as the favorite but had a trip/ride from hell. Still, it's come out that he's lost time to a lung infection, and the Derby is not where you want to lose time training. On top of that, he's bred up and down to be a sprinter and we're unconvinced he wants 10 furlongs.

14. Devil May Care. Put aside that this is a filly in the Derby, this gal has one of the stranger PP lines in the race. After winning her maiden and a Grade 1 race, she ran 11th (next to last) in the Breeders Cup, then came back as a three year old and ran next to last against an uninspired field in Louisiana. She then rebounded to beat Oaks contender Amen Hallelujah in her last, and is now coming to the Derby off a 6-week layoff. We're suspicious of her fast Gowanus Speed Figure in her last race, don't like her lack of a recent prep race, and think she's more like Three Ring than Winning Colors--not a factor to worry about.

Can't Win the Battle and the War

13. Conveyance. We learned our lesson last year doubting horses that come off of losses in the Sunland Derby. Still, this guy's a committed front runner and couldn't handle mild pressure in New Mexico. How on earth can he hold up against 3-5 other horses breathing down his neck on Saturday?

12. Discreetly Mine. He doesn't need to be on the lead, but he's done his best running when on the lead. We love this guy's breeding and connections, but this horse has folded like a tent every time he's been challenged by a mediocre horse, let alone a good one; his only wins were when he waltzed through easy fractions in the Risen Star and a maiden race where he sported a big experience edge on his rivals. Can't see him being a factor at the quarter pole.

11. Line of David. The light bulb appears to have been turned on for the last three races and he appeared to like the dirt when wiring the Arkansas Derby, but watch the replay of that race. He was staggering in the stretch and won because Dublin and Super Saver wouldn't pass him. We like him to be a decent horse this year if he comes out of this race intaact (he might be a nice miler), but this is too much.

10. Sidney's Candy. People are trying to make the case that this guy isn't a committed front runner, will lay off the pace and get first run on the closers. We don't see it at all. He's been at the front of the pack all 3 races this year, and in two of them got absurdly easy fractions that allowed him to coast him. As a two year old, he wasn't always on the lead, but nonetheless never ran an opening quarter slower than 22 2/5 or a half mile 45 3/5. Those aren't fractions that will allow you to steal a race, those are fractions that will get you fried.

We recognize that he had a good come-home time in the Santa Anita Derby and that his breeding is sneakily good for the distance. But this guy appears to be in a damned if you do/damned if you don't position. Front runners almost always fail in the Derby: in the last 15 years, we've had a whopping 1 wire the field (War Emblem, 2002). If he goes that route, he'll get killed by battling the previous 3 horses (and possibly some others). If he tries to rate, then he has to take dirt in his face for the first time, has to navigate the correct trip behind tiring horses (not easy) and be okay with taking a new tact in the Derby. All this while shipping across the country and trying dirt for the first time. For all that, do you really want to take 9-2 odds on this guy?

Coming up tomorrow: the top 9, our selections and some betting advice.

Daily Kentucky Derby Hype Meme: Post Position Draw

The field of 20 has been set and the post positions have been drawn. For the first time since 1997, the post draw for the Derby was done completely at random. From 1997 to 2009, the draw was televised and included trainers/owners picking where they wanted their horses to start from. Watching fat white guys pick numbers made for some of the least gripping television that didn't include Stephen A. Smith, which is the main reason they scrapped it. But there's another reason they scrapped it:

Post. Position. Does. Not. Matter. Much.

Since favorite Lookin at Lucky drew the rail and second choice Sidney's Candy drew the 20 post (of 20), expect there to be a cavalcade of articles on how injurious these draws were, as nobody's won the Derby from Post 1 since Ferdinand and only one horse (Big Brown) has won from the far outside in the last half century. Believe none of them. Here's the historic breakdown of post positions and wins since 1990:

1 – 12
2 – 9
3 – 8
4 – 10
5 – 12
6 – 6
7 – 8
8 – 10
9 – 4
10 – 10
11 – 3
12 – 3
13 – 4
14 – 2
15 – 3
16 – 3
17 – 0
18 – 1
19 – 0
20 - 2

That stat shows that the inside is better, but that's because it includes a lot of Derbies that didn't have a ton of horses. So let's only look at the last 40 years.

1 – 1
2 – 4
3 – 4
4 – 1
5 – 3
6 – 1
7 – 3
8 – 5
9 – 1
10 – 7
11 – 1
12 – 2
13 – 2
14 – 0
15 – 2
16 – 3
17 – 0
18 – 1
19 – 0
20 - 1

What we see if that somehow #17 and #19 have been shut out (again, presumably partially because many fields didn't have over 16 horses) while #1, 4, 6, 9 and 11 have only one win. Is this because those spots are cursed? No. It's blind luck where a horse draws, and by chance, #5, 7, 8 and 10 have outdrawn those posts over the last 4 decades. We can't recall a trainer ever saying after a race "we lost because of the draw." There's a reason for that--it almost never happens.

Additionally, it's worth remembering that a horse's post position can change up to post time if there's a pre-race scratch. Last year, I Want Revenge was #13 and scratched, moving all from #14 to #20 up a notch. Did their movement change the race outcome? Not at all.

So let's give this meme an 8 because it's race related but dead wrong. Try again kids.

Daily Kentucky Derby Hype Meme: Dosage

It's a slow week so far in Louisville, with the big stories being Eskendereya's scratch, which we covered yesterday, and Joe Torre's ownership of Homeboykris and involvement in racing. The latter is almost half the product of the Dodgers being in New York and rained out yesterday. We thought we were going to have nothing to kvetch about today, and then an old friend resurfaced: Dosage.

We thought Dosage was dead and buried, until we saw this cheatsheet given to the masses in the Louisville Courier-Journal, the main paper of Louisville and the go-to source for local Derby coverage. Suffice to say tens of thousands of people will be reading this chart and others like it, and quite possibly relying on it. On its face it has some good information: the horses' connections, breeding, race record, last race finish and best speed figures. But in the penultimate column, it also gives every horse's Dosage figure. Arrrrgh.

A horse's Dosage Index is calculated by a fairly complicated process, illustrated by the 12-part slide show here. In short, Dosage puts all sires into one of five categories based on how far it thinks their progeny want to run. Points are assigned for all sires in a horse's lineage, going back four generations, with the most recent generation's points counting the most. By adding up the points, multiplying them by a constant, and then applying Euler's Formula, we get a horse's Dosage.

A series of articles in the Daily Racing Form in the early 80's posited that if a horse had a Dosage above 4.00, he could safely be eliminated from the Derby on breeding alone. A fine theory, which held true for a while. And then:

• Strike the Gold won the 1991 Derby with a 9.00 Dosage, despite being sired by Alydar, one of the best 3yos ever.
  
• Real Quiet and Charismatic won the Derby in back to back years with Dosages over 4.00.
• Giacomo and Mine That Bird pulled off big upsets with Dosages over 4.00, neither of which made any sense, given they were sired by Travers winners.

What this means is that Dosage has a 75% hit rate--3 in 4 winners of the Derby will have a Dosage below 4.00. Here's the greater problem: almost all horses that run in the Derby qualify based on Dosage. Taking this year's possible entrants (excluding Rule, who's not running), this would knock out Mission Impazible, Jackson Bend and Conveyance, leaving you with 17 horses that qualify based on Dosage. Thank you. Moreover, the fact that a horse has a 1.00 Dosage versus a 3.00 Dosage is patently irrelevant in Derby success; all that matters, under the old theory, is whether he's under a 4.00.

We would have less of a problem with a paper that doesn't really have a racing beat mentioning Dosage, because old habit die hard. But the Courier-Journal should know better, horse racing and bat making are the only two games in town. This isn't just giving out bad information, this is giving out misleading information that's been disproven time and time again. We'll therefore give this a solid 7, and advise everyone to avoid Dosage like the plague.

Daily Kentucky Derby Hype Meme: Eskendereya's Withdrawal

We're generally pretty harsh on the media making mountains of either molehills or irrelevant topics, so for today's Hype Meme, we're going to give credit where it's due: the vast majority of articles on the Derby in the last 24 hours have been about morning line favorite Eskendereya being declared from the race with an injury. This is a pretty big story--it's not only the 2nd straight year that the favorite isn't going to run in the race due to a last minute injury (I Want Revenge scratched last year 9 hours before the Derby), but it has a cascade effect on every other horse's odds. Lookin at Lucky and Sidney's Candy are now going to be solid favorites, and longshots like Homeboykris and Paddy O'Prado won't be as long odds as they would have been had Eskendereya sucked in 30% of the wagering.

While we give the press credit for giving the story the attention it deserves, we can't help but note that they're also using the scratch to dig up storylines that we already noted were overhyped. In this piece, not only does the Times tell the impact of Eskendereya's scratch on the race, they manage to get in shots at Pletcher and Zayat for their Derby record and bankruptcy. The Associated Press did exactly the same thing. Even the Derby's website went a bit over the top in needling Pletcher for his losing streak.

We were going to give this our first actual 1 out of 10 on the Hype Scale, but the media's insistence on lambasting Pletcher and Zayat when they're down has made us re-think this. For now then, let's give it a 2.5, and hope they keep it up.

Daily Kentucky Derby Hype Meme: (Semi) Famous People

The Kentucky Derby is a horse race in Kentucky.

We recognize that our readers are almost certainly aware of that particular datum. Regardless, we feel that it's important to point out, because both the Derby organizers and surrounding community are going pretty far out of their way to hype the idea that the Derby is also a celebrity event.

For example, the Derby's own website has an entire section devoted to the history of celebrity sightings at Churchill Downs, which for some reason tries to plug the continued vitality of the race's celebrity presence by featuring the leering, death's-head visage of LeAnne Rimes on its splash page. Louisville's hometown paper (which also tries, we feel counterproductively, to geographically associate itself with "Southern Indiana") also goes out of its way to pimp the celebrity angle, splashing a banner headline about En Vogue's Derby week performance.

These efforts to convert the Derby into a celebrity event demean both the race and the notional "celebrities" in question. Horse racing is no longer as popular as it once was in the U.S., and attempts to prove the contrary by crowing on about a Nick Lachey appearance really only end up reinforcing the perception of racing's decline.

The Derby needs to have the courage of its convictions. These are the finest trained, most exactingly bred three year old horses in the nation, if not the world. They are fast and powerful and even pretty to look at. So just show us the damn horses, and leave LeAnne and En Vogue in the barn, where they so richly deserve to be. This is not the Golden Globes in L.A. This is a horse race in Kentucky. Cover it accordingly.

Any "story" combining multiple marginal celebrities with a chronicle of the social hierarchy of Southern Indiana is going to rank very high on any sort of B.S. list. So let's give this meme a 9.5, with the perfect 10 averted only because we need to leave room in case the media thinks of anything even stupider once the race draws near.

Daily Kentucky Derby Hype Meme: Who Wants to Buy the Favorite?

A frequent topic of coverage for the Derby are the horses' owners, how they got there, what they do, and why they're into racing. Normally the owner of a horse is only a worthy topic of conversation if there's a good story involved. Think back to Alex's Lemonade Stand, Frances Genter, or even the irrascible Mike Pegram; all involved characters or human interest stories. We don't love these stories because they're not really relevant to the race, but we recognize that lots of people who aren't big sports fans do care. Otherwise, the Olympics wouldn't get ratings.

With that in mind, let's turn to the owner of this year's big favorite Eskendereya, Mr. Ahmen Zayat, owner of Zayat Stables. Zayat is hardly a stranger to the Derby--he owned last year's runner up Pioneerofthe Nile, our pick to win the 2008 Derby, Z Fortune, and a few other longshots. We've never met him, know very little about him other than he spends a lot of money on horses, and have no opinion on him as a businessman or human being.

What we do know is that Zayat Stables has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy. What's more is that as part of his reorganization plan, Zayat has stated he intends to sell Eskendereya at the end of the year to pay off the sizable debts he owes. Against all odds, this has started to pick up steam as a story, and will no doubt reach a crescendo next week. After all, the press loved the stories about the principals of IEAH being involved stock scams, so why wouldn't they love stories about the owner of the Derby favorite (who's Middle Eastern, to top it off) going bankrupt and being forced to sell his prized horse?

As the linked article shows (and anyone with a PACER account can learn_, it is not abnormal for a bankrupt party to state its assets and how it intends to dispose of them. But, even as a pair of attorneys, we cannot say we're remotely interested in how this pans out. Win or lose the Derby, there's about a 90% chance that Eskendereya will not race past this year and Zayat would have sold all or part of him to another breeding stable. The fact that his farm is insolvent doesn't change this fact.

Moreover, the Chapter 11 proceeding really has no bearing on the race itself. Eskendereya is not being trained or operated differently because his owner is in a financial pickle. He's not going to be scratched to be sold on Friday morning. To the contrary, if anything, this gives the connections one more reason to push for the Derby title, because if he wins, he'll be worth at least $10 million to a breeder, even in this depressed stallion market.

We were prepared to give this story a 6 based on its irrelevancy, but upon further reflection, legal tales generally and bankruptcy stories specifically are about as boring as you can find. We use sports to escape from the humdrum of legal problems and financial concerns, not to tell us more about it. Thus, let's give it a 25% bump to 7.5 on the BS Scale.

Daily Kentucky Derby Hype Meme: Todd Pletcher Can't Win the Kentucky Derby

By any measure, the top trainer of the past decade was Todd Pletcher. In the period from 2000 to 2009, he won the Eclipse Award for best trainer four times (2004 - 2007), won 70 Grade 1 races, including 3 Breeders Cup races, was the leading trainer at Saratoga 5 times, and trained eight horses that won Eclipse Awards. He has big won with sprinters (Trippi, Speightstown), young colts (Proud Accolade, More Than Ready), young fillies (Marylebone), 3yo colts (Flower Alley, Any Given Saturday, Bluegrass Cat), 3yo fillies (Rags to Riches, Ashado, Panty Raid), older males (Left Bank, Lawyer Ron), older females (Ashado once again, Fleet Indian), turf males (English Channel, Red Giant), and turf females (Wait a While, Honey Ryder). A whopping eight of those horses have won Eclipse Awards. And despite all that success, there's only one thing you'll hear over and over again in the next few weeks:

Todd Pletcher can't win the Kentucky Derby.

This meme is going to be one of the big stories this year because Pletcher comes into this year's Derby armed with at least five entrants including the huge favorite, Eskendereya, intriguing price players Super Saver and Mission Impazible, and pace factors Rule and Discreetly Mine. It would be great if you could eliminate 25% of the horses simply because Todd Pletcher trains them. There are three enormous problems with this meme, however.

Problem #1: Pletcher hasn't had a horse yet that should have won the Kentucky Derby.

Steve Crist masterfully discussed this in his blog (side note: we had written about 2/3 of this post when his went up), but Todd Pletcher's 0-for-24 mark--which is really 0-for-9, because the 24 horses have run in 9 Derbies--is mostly because he's run rank longshots. Let's go a step beyond Mr. Crist and look a little more closely at the 24 entrants that he's had so far.

2000

• Impeachment (3rd, 6-1, part of an entry). Would have been 30-1 had he not been part of the entry, and fit the bill perfectly of a clunk-up closer. Not a bad showing.
• More Than Ready (4th, 11-1). The prior year's 2yo sensation, he never had the breeding to go 10 furlongs
• Trippi (11th, 6-1, part of an entry). A crackerjack sprinter that would go on to have a nice career at races under a mile. This was apparent from Day One, but the owners wanted to run him anyway.
• Graeme Hall (19th, 46-1). This front-runner shocked the Arkansas Derby at 17-1 and was rightly ignored as a front-runner in the Derby.

2001

• Invisible Ink (2nd, 55-1). A personal favorite, because I picked the winner of this Derby (Monarchos) and this guy at overlaid odds. He lacked a stakes win coming in and was a decent enough horse, but he ran in the same Derby as Monarchos, Point Given, and Congaree. He deserved to be a price and outran his odds.
  
• Balto Star (14th, 8-1). A front runner with sprinter's speed in a race with a series of intractable frontrunners (Millenium Wind, Songandaprayer, Keats). His odds were wrong, plain and simple. This guy never had a shot.
  

2002

• Wild Horses (18th, 58-1). Pure vanity entry by the owner. Can't hold it against Pletcher.
  

2004

• Limehouse (4th, 41-1). This Derby's a bit of a tough one to rate because of the thunderstorm about 40 minutes before the race that made it a pea soup. Still, this guy won graded stakes races as a 2, 3 and 4 year old and clunked up to complete the superfecta behind two better horses (Smarty Jones & Lion Heart) and a fair closer (Imperialism). Not a bad job here by Todd.
  
• Pollard's Vision (17th, 24-1). Upset winner of the Illinois Derby had nothing in the Kentucky Derby. With Graeme Hall and Balto Star, he's the 3rd horse who was an upset winner in a prep race that did nothing in the Derby.
  

2005

• Flower Alley (9th, 41-1). Make that four horses: he won the Lane's End. He actually turned into a good horse, winning the Travers and Jim Dandy later that year and finishing 2nd in the Breeders Cup Classic.
  
• Coin Silver (12th, 38-1). And here's #5: the upset winner of the Lexington.
  
• Bandini (19th, 7-1). Arguably the best horse Pletcher has run in the Derby. Nobody knows why he ran next to last in a race where the exacta was comprised of Giacomo (50-1) and Closing Argument (71-1). He was never the same after the Derby.
  

2006

• Bluegrass Cat (2nd, 30-1). Many people liked this horse, and he rewarded them with a fat mutuel behind Barbaro. Won the Haskell later that year.
• Keyed Entry (20th, 29-1). A rank sprinter, nobody's quite sure why this horse was entered. I'll blame the owners.

2007

• Circular Quay (6th, 11-1). We picked this guy to run seventh, so nice job, Todd.
  
• Any Given Saturday (8th, 13-1). We liked this guy in 2007, and he won the Haskell later that year. He for whatever reason wasn't ready on Derby Day.
  
• Sam P. (9th, 43-1). A longshot when he entered the race, he only won 3 of 26 races in his career.
  
• Scat Daddy (18th, 7-1). Wildly overbet given his breeding and lack of fast races. Yeah he was 7-1, but few handicappers liked him.
  
• Cowtown Cat (20th, 20-1). #6 on the list of upset prep winners that Pletcher ran in the Derby and flopped.
  

2008

• Cowboy Cal (9th, 39-1). Turf horse that ran 2nd in the Blue Grass only because it was on synthetic. I think this was his last race on dirt.
  
• Monba (20th, 31-1). Upset Prep Winner #7.
  

2009

• Join in the Dance (7th, 51-1). Pure pacesetter for Pletcher's other horses, who held on for 7th in the mud.
  
• Dunkirk (11th, 5-1). A fairly polarizing horse going into the race; many didn't like him because of the Curse of Apollo, but because Quality Road and I Want Revenge didn't make it into the gate, he was thrust into 2nd choice status. Backed up his support with a good 2nd in the Belmont next out, but was overbet here.
  
• Advice (13th, 49-1). Upset Prep Winner #8, he won the Lexington two weeks prior.

So breaking that down, eight of the horses entered were thrown to the wolves solely because they won their prep races against all odds (which speaks to Pletcher's training ability). On top of that, we have the usual vanity entries and no-hopers that probably weren't his call. In short, Pletcher's really being crucified because four horses didn't win the Derby: Bandini, Scat Daddy, Any Given Saturday and Dunkirk. We can't make excuses for him, but when you shrink it to 0-for-4 with a chance, suddenly it doesn't look so bad.

Problem #2: We've done and disproven this meme before.

Up until June 2007, the meme wasn't "Pletcher can't win the Derby", it's "Pletcher can't win Triple Crown races." Then what happened? Rags to Riches won the Belmont, being the first filly to win the race in a century. Monkey off his back, right? Nope, now the media's just moved the goalposts.

Additionally, we've seen the media do this with other top trainers. D. Wayne Lukas was crucified for years for being unable to win a Triple Crown race; he then won 13. Shug McGaughey was ridiculed for not being able to win a Triple Crown race; Easy Goer took care of that in 1989. Bobby Frankel was attacked for not winning a Triple Crown or Breeders Cup race; he won the 2003 Belmont when he got Empire Maker, the best horse he ever trained. Which brings us to...

Problem #3: This has nothing to do with this year's Derby.

Once McGaughey and Lukas got their best horses, they won the big race with them. And Pletcher has by far his best Derby prospect ever this year in Eskendereya. He's perfectly bred for the distance. He's the fastest horse. He's prepped well and is training well. He has a top jockey. And he has good ratable speed. This doesn't mean he can't lose--Point Given and Empire Maker had similar credentials and lost. But it does mean that this is Pletcher's best shot and really, probably only the 4th or 5th horse he's run in the Derby that could be expected to finish in the money. If Eskendereya loses, it won't be because Todd Pletcher was his trainer; it will be because someone was better on May 1st or he just had a bad day.

So how do we rank this meme? The trainer's competency is race-related, but the issue and conclusion are being handled poorly. We'll give this a solid 5, because we know the media can and will do much worse.

Quasi-New Feature: The Daily Kentucky Derby Hype Meme

Over the past three years, we've run the Daily Super Bowl Hype Meme to deconstruct and mock the media's overcoverage of stories, ledes and runs irrelevant to the actual playing of the Super Bowl. In just the past Super Bowl, we lambasted coverage about the Archie Manning's bloodlines, impending NFL labor crisis, and a guy who wasn't even playing in the game.

When we began to think about our annual Kentucky Derby coverage, it hit us that the Derby is even more ripe for a Hype Meme analysis. Consider the following:

• The Kentucky Derby is nicknamed "the most exciting two minutes in sports" for a simple reason: the entire race takes somewhere between 119 and 125 seconds. Everything before it is prelude; the event itself lasts about as long as a Nick Johnson at bat. This is similar to the Super Bowl, where there are two weeks to prepare for a 3-hour game.

• The main participants in the Kentucky Derby are horses, and as equines, do not really lend themselves to interviews. This means that the media...

• ...has to go to other sources for stories. This includes people that are completely relevant (trainers, jockeys), partially relevant (owners, breeders) and completely irrelevant (celebrities, touts). And because most trainers and jockeys are putting on a brave face, playing possum, or both, you're unlikely to get much of use out of them concerning the race itself.

• NBC, newspapers and other forms of the media see the Kentucky Derby as pure Americana, which means we're likely to get violin-laden montages like you'd find in the Olympics and feel-good stories about the connections of a horse. We're not going to say they have no place in the coverage--a good story is a good story--but when they dominate the media landscape, they're overbearing.

• Horse racing has become a niche sport, meaning the public understands it broadly but not in a way that lends itself to more than perfunctory analysis. While everyone knows what batting average, interceptions and assists are, few know what a Beyer Speed Figure is or what constitutes a "fast pace" for a race. This keeps the media from doing anything beyond Racing 101 discussion in the mass press, because anything else will likely be lost on the audience.

• Lastly, the mainstream media, in an effort to save money, has done away with the traditional "horse racing beat". This means that the few writers or personalities that still cover racing (we're looking at...you, Joe Drape and Hank Goldberg) know this is their one week of the year to shine and will present whatever piece will be the most attention grabbing. Often, this bears no relation to the race itself.
  

As such, for the next few days, we'll be running the Daily Kentucky Derby Hype Meme, picking a story a day that the media has grabbed a hold of and overanalyzed. We'll assign a 1-10 rating, with a 1 being awarded to a detailed analysis of how the presence of multiple speed horses effects the chances of Sidney's Candy, and with a 10 being awarded to yet another a maudlin reminiscence of Barbaro.

We hope that we'll get a lot of insightful articles regarding the strategies of the trainers, pedigree analysis and the strengths and weaknesses of the horses. But we're not optimistic.

Memes at a Glance:

4/21: Exaggerating Pletcher's 0-'fer
4/22: The Bankruptcy of the Favorite's Owners
4/23: The Leering, Death's Head Visage of LeAnne Rimes
4/26: Eskanderya Scratches

Transactions Analysis: Tax Day Edition

Yes, it's time again for the most wonderful day of the year: the day when all you hardworking people out there pay the salaries of mid-level bureaucrats like myself (and the day on which the GRBG re-launches its TA series). I'd ordinarily include a longer, more elaborate run-up to the year's first in-season TA, but I need to finish this off real quick and get back to sucking on that golden teat. (Teddy)

I like that we're making a Tax-Day TA a ritual because it excuses spending time on depressing subjects like your finances for the eternal hope that is your fantasy baseball team. In related news, for the first time ever, I've filed for an extension to file my taxes, because I couldn't get my shit together in time for today's deadline. This is probably because I spent the better part of the last two weeks drafting baseball players and writing league previews. The things we do for you kids... (El Angelo)

Suck It Silver

Signed: Rafael Betancourt (RP, CLE), Vernon Wells (OF, TOR)

Promoted: Jason Heyward (OF, ATL) from prospect list

If it ain't broke, don't fix it (or at least limit yourself to a moderate indulgence in your Blue Jay fetish). Not much to quarrel with here, especially since Vernon Wells seems to have found a new source of whatever bovine growth hormone he was on during his career years a few seasons back. (Teddy)

Part of the reason for the availability of roster spots is that Aaron Hill and Joe Blanton are now on the DL for at least the rest of the month. None of these three players address what the team loses in Hill, because hard-hitting 2B's aren't easily available. I suppose Betancourt nominally takes Blanton's place on the pitching side of the ledger, but unless I missed something, Raffy ain't fat, scruffy and full of lima beans. (El Angelo)

Duck-Duck-Duck-Fuke

[Squadoosh]

I guess the same reasoning applies here, though opting for total passivity might amount to too little of a good thing. (Teddy)

Yet another good start for Will's team, who's starting to resemble the Denver Broncos of the Wankdorf league--good 2 months to start, and an inexorable tail-off. It keeps you out of the basement, but also means they need to keep their eyes open for trouble around Mother's Day. (El Angelo)

The Revenge Society

Signed: Austin Jackson (OF, DET)

Third verse, same as the first. Jesus, I'm getting pre-emptively self-conscious over the length of my transactions list. I'm either trying too hard or just drafted like an idiot.

It's worth noting that it must be that none of these teams are facing early season injury issues, as we're not even seeing much in the way of roster top-offs using slots freed up by DL'd draftees. (Teddy)

Yeah, besides the Hill injury, Teddy's right. It's also worth noting that no team has played 10 games yet. Interesting side project I might take on this year: marking everyone's status and standings once a week, and publish the results/trends at the end. I'm curious to see if April success actually means anything. (El Angelo)

Jeters Never Prosper

Signed: Maicier Izturis (IF, LAA); Juan Rivera (OF, LAA); Josh Outman (P, OAK); Dallas Braden (SP, OAK); Casey McGehee (2B/3B, MIL)

Waived: Mike Adams (RP, SD); Izturis; Rivera.

The Captain Blasphemers leaned pretty far to the left coast in their initial moves, picking up about half of the A.L. West before recoiling in horror from the offensive talent in that group. Given the apparent weakness of the SEA and LAA offenses this year, I like the idea of scooping all available OAK pitchers, and Casey McGehee looks a lot more playable with 2B eligibility. Of course, that same weakness made the Izturis and Rivera pickups iffy, but those were rectified pretty quickly. (Teddy)

Casey McGehee is the answer as to why Milwaukee won't compete this year--if he's at the hot corner, you're in a lot of trouble against the Reds, let alone the Cardinals. That said, there are far worse placeholders for 2B, like say, Kelly Johnson. (El Angelo)

Le Dupont Torkies

Signed: Kelvim Escobar (SP-DL, NYM); JC Romero (RP-DL, PHI); Matt LaPorta (1B/OF, CLE); Delmon Young (OF, MIN); Sean Rodriguez (OF, TB); John Baker (C, FLA); Jose Guillen (OF, KC); Pat Neshek (PPP, MIN)

Waived: Brandon Wood (3B, LAA); Baker; LaPorta; Escobar

Here we go. LDT engaged in their usual early-season DL stash shenanigans, betting that once healthy, Kelvim Escobar will be better than John Maine and JC Romero will be better than Brad Lidge. Those are pretty sensible bets, honestly. Homegrown injuries forced Escobar back into the pool; he could turn out to be a useful piece for somebody with the time and DL space to wait for him.

I'd also like to note that the Jose Guillen pickup, combined with my grab of Scott Podsednik, means that the entire Royals OF is owned in our league. That almost has to be a first.

Finally: Pat Neshek is back! The GRBG wishes many happy returns to the former Pewter Parachute winner. (Teddy)

The last time you could rationally expect the entire Royals OF to be owned was 1999, when it consisted of Carlos Beltran, Johnny Damon and Jermaine Dye. I was trying to figure out how the hell a team with that outfield and a healthy (and quite productive) Mike Sweeney at DH went 67-95, then saw their starting infield included Rey-Rey Sanchez, Jeremy Giambi, and Carlos Meet The Febles. That could explain a lot of losing.

What I do like is Tucker's pro-active approach to improving a hitting roster that's squarely middle of the pack to start the season. No, not all of the group of Baker, Young, Rodriguez and LaPorta will pan out, but at least 1 will, and knowing Tucker's luck, 2 will probably be quite good. There isn't a horrible risk in that quartet, and what's the downside--a lost roster spot? Nice set of moves. (El Angelo)

The Situation Room

Signed: Chris Getz (2B, KC); Tim Wood (RP, FLA); Chris Young (OF, ARI)

Waived: Kelly Johnson (2d Round, ATL); Ross Ohlendorf (SP, PIT); Jason Hammel (SP, COL)

Not 12 hours after Kelly Johnson was cut, he was featured on the front page of the Yahoo! fantasy website as an underrated fantasy 2B. There appears to be a web-wide conspiracy to make Ang feel bad about any Johnson-related actions he takes.

Also, Chris Getz ranks slightly behind Bernard Goetz on my list of productive fantasy baseball players. (Teddy)

Somehow my entire 2B strategy has been lost in the mocking of these pickups. Allow me to explain. Gordon Beckham is going to be my 2B for the year, but he wasn't eligible to play the spot until last Sunday. Ergo, the need for placeholders. I was goaded into Kelly Johnson at the draft by Tucker, Jake, and Captain Lawrence. That lasted one game, then came Getz, which was only because he can ran. 3 steals later, he's bench fodder, and Beckham's got the spot locked up. Of course, my 3B options are shitty (Blake or Headley), but that's the reason for the moves. In the move that Teddy didn't address, is there any actual chance that Chris Young has finally figured his shit out? (El Angelo)

Gowanus Superfunders

Signed: Joey Devine (RP-DL, OAK); Jim Johnson (RP, BAL); Carlos Gomez (OF, MIL); Jim Thome (1B, MIN); Daric Barton (1B, OAK); Jeremy Affeldt (RP, SF); Scott Podsednik (OF, KC); Gio Gonzalez (SP, OAK)

Waived: Sean Rodriguez (OF, TB); Brandon League (RP, SEA); Thome; Affeldt; Devine.

Hey, so, my entire brand new, high round pitching staff sucks. That's cool. Also, I managed to run out of DL slots 6 days into the season. So this is going well. I confidently anticipate that Ryan Howard will die of syphillis by the end of the month.

I'm not proud of the Podsednik pickup, but with Brian Roberts and Carlos Gonzalez both hurt, I need absolutely any source of steals I can get. (Teddy)

Steals rarely "come into the league", so you have to take them where you can get them. That said, Podsednik, is one step above Kimera Bartee on the rung of one-category players. Even guys like Julio Borbon at least walk a little. I'm a little more confused about the Daric Barton pickup. First base is not a shallow position and you already have Ryan Howard and Mark Reynolds. Yes, I know you're hurting what with Lawrence Pissfuck Jones and Beltran being hurt, but was this guy the best option out there for the DH slot? (El Angelo)

Wu Tang Financial

Signed: Clint Barmes (MI, COL); Mike Adams (RP, SD); Mike Leake (SP, CIN)

Waived: Bud Norris (SP, HOU)

Interesting--usually Buds go in and Leakes come out. That's a time-honored tradition that I'm not sure that WTF is wise to buck. Best of British luck, though, because this will revolutionize leisure time if it works. (Teddy)

I'm hoping that Jon knows something about Leake that wasn't obvious in his first start, when he walked seven Cubs and had one wild pitch against 5 strikeouts. Keeping that up will not keep you in the Reds rotation. On second thought, given General Dusty's proclivity for shredding young labrums, this might be a good thing. (El Angelo)

pastywhite tyrones

Signed: Alfredo Aceves (RP, NYY); CJ Wilson (SP, TEX)(x2); Garrett Jones (OF, PIT); Miguel Olivo (C, COL); Scott Rolen (3B, TOR)

Waived: George Sherrill (RP, LAD); Wilson (x1); Brandon Inge (3B, DET); Joel Pineiro (SP, LAA); AJ BadPolishPerson (C, CHW); Jose Lopez (IF, SEA)

This is rare, so bask in it: I like most of these pickups. Garrett Jones is a Russ Branyan-type TTO hitter, and has the chance to put up some interesting numbers in the middle of PIT's order. Alfredo Aceves is probably the second-best reliever on the Yankees, even though Joba eats up more attention and cheeseburgers.

The one quibble I have is with the Joel Pineiro cut; even though he has outperformed his peripherals for a couple of years now, he's going to get to face some shaky offenses in big ballparks out in the A.L. West. I think he's playable. Then again, my staff ERA is currently over 5.00, so I'm probably not the guy to judge. (Teddy)

I actually agree with all of my co-author's points, and will go a step further to endorse the pickup of CJ Wilson as well, who might be closing if they decide Neftali Feliz belongs in the rotation. Nice swag. (El Angelo)

The Little Green One

Signed: Alex Gordon (3B-DL, KC); Michael “Bad to” Wuertz (RP, SD); Clay-TON Ree-SHARD (LW, MTL); Kenshin Kawakami (Motorbike, ATL); Baked Zito (SP, SF); The Rentasuck (SS, SF); Carl "The Truth" Pavano (SP, CLE)

Waived: Brett Myers (Asshole, HOU); Ryan Rowland-Smith (SP, SEA); Richard.

Very much the pupu platter for the Marvins. Nothing wrong with the hope-springs-eternal DL stash of Alex Gordon, and Barry Zito might finally be settling in as a useful mid-rotation guy in SF as people focus more on his performance and less on the absurdity of his contract. But lining up to grab draft-day punchline Mike Wuertz seems questionable, and signing up for voluntary exposure to the Carl Pavano Experience seems borderline masochistic. I recognize the symptoms of rushing all hands on deck to man the pumps, and that can't be a good feeling this early on. (Teddy)

These are just like Tucker's series of savvy moves, except the exact opposite. About the only one I can sign off on is Gordon, who's at least mildly interesting as a post-hype sleeper, but I think he's pretty affirmatively shown that his upside is Casey Blake. But I mean really, where the hell are Pavano and Zito taking you to, outside of Montepulciano (left)? (El Angelo)

Enrico Palazzo

Signed: Jake Westbrook (SP, CLE); Luke Hochevar (SP, KC); Joel Zumaya (RP, DET); Benji Molina (C)

Four guys in, no guys out usually means major injury problems. Sure enough, EP has most of his starting bullpen and his starting catcher on the DL at the moment. Given the utter lack of depth out there at those positions, the team's attempt to return to respectability is off to a rough start (though through no fault of their own). (Teddy)

This is also roughly what torpedoed these guys early last year. I do like the Hochevar and Zumaya flyer pick ups, since both guys could throw hard, play in a shitty division, and could present some upside. I presume Jake Westbrook is only here because Andrew's cat stepped on the computer in the middle of the night and accidentally picked him up. (El Angelo)

The Spam Avengers

Signed: Andy Pettitte (SP, NYY); Jose Mijares (RP, MIN); Scott Sizemore (Finish your drink); Kelly Johnson (2B, ATL); Jeremy Bonderman (SP, DET)

Waived: John Maine (P, NYM); Mijares; Sizemore


KEL-LY JOHN-SON [clap clap clapclapclap], KEL-LY JOHN-SON [clap clap clapclapclap]. (Teddy)

Kelly's well on his way to winning this year's Pewter Parachute, which will be the first trophy he's won since Tee Ball. (El Angelo)

Season Preview: The Aggregate Predictions

In the past years we've done previews, we've also done predictions. In 2007, Teddy and I did something of an ad hoc prediction of where we thought everyone would finish. As we noted later, we were right about 2/3 of the time, that is, within an acceptable margin of error.

After taking off 2008 so Teddy could get married, we resumed predictions last year with the assistance of PECOTA. This system went to shit: the teams that finished 1-2-3-4-5 were predicted to finish 11-12-6-5-10. Shockingly, we have chosen to not revisit that method.

This year, rather than just announce from Mount Gowanus how we think the league is going to wind up, we've instead taken a third approach: asking other members for their predictions, and doing a tally, AP-poll style. We received 8 responses, which included 2 that were computer-influenced and one that was taken "off the top of my head."

Our hope is that the Wisdom of the Crowds will produce something resembling order. What is produced is four distinct tiers: contenders to win, contenders for the money, possibilities for the money, and longshots. Shall we run it down, Sir Teddy? (El Angelo)

Let's. And I love the concept of Mount Gowanus. I assume that in this scenario, Tucker is the Krakon. (Teddy)

Tier 4: The Discreetly Mine Division

13. Val (1 point)

Very nice, Jake. (El Angelo)
.

Seems a little high to me. (Teddy)

12. pastywhite tyrone (24 pts)

For the record, I did not pick this team to finish in last. Regardless, there's only one thing to say: you're doing a heckuva job, Brownie. (El Angelo)

Neither did I, actually. But investor confidence appears low at the moment. (Teddy)

11. Wu Tang Financial (26 pts)

Only one owner picked this team to finish higher than 9th place...and it's the team's own owner. I'd try to make an argument for them doing well, but they've only finished above 6th place once: their first year. (El Angelo)

.

I feel like people might be extrapolating a little too much out of B.J. Upton-gate. The team's not that bad. (Teddy)

.

10. Duck-Duck-Duck-Fuke (30 pts)

I picked Will to finish in 8th, and as I've noted before, I never get Will's team correctly. I think I've sentenced him to another 5th place finish. (El Angelo)

.

One person had these guys DAFL, which slightly skews their ranking. Though I guess that's the point of this methodology. (Teddy)

9. Enrico Palazzo (34 pts)

Seems like a consolidation year to get some good talent in here before a push to contention next year. The offense looks a bit anemic. (El Angelo)

.

As I said in the season preview, there's more here than you might expect, especially with Carlos Quentin looking frisky in the early going. But there are more solid teams than usual this year, and I guess somebody has to be worst of the best. (Teddy)

Tier 3: The Awesome Act Division

8. The Situation Room (47 pts)

There's nothing like everyone thinking your team is mediocre. (El Angelo)

.

Well, not everyone--these guys got one vote to hit the board, which is what separates them from the Tier 4 teams below. The other predictions? 6/7/6/10/7/10/9. So, yeah, that part is pretty mediocre. (Teddy)

7. The Little Green One (58 pts)

Some large divergence here. One owner picked this team to finish in third, three picked them to finish in 4th, while two of us (myself included) chose them to finish next-to-last. I really don't like the pitching or a lot of guys in the lineup, and can see this team selling off assets early to build for next year. (El Angelo)

Yeah, this is one of the two lightning-rod teams this year. I'm already on record that I think these guys wil challenge for the board. That said, the league vote as a whole has done a good job of reflecting the fact that the shape of this roster, with its multiple high-slot guys, is going to force the owner to either buy heavily or sell heavily come the summer. (Teddy)

6. Jeters Never Prosper (58 pts)

We've kept this squad in Tier 3 because only one owner has picked them to finish in the money. By contrast, everyone else has them between 4th and 8th. Ladies and gentlemen, the team everyone thinks will be mediocre! (El Angelo)

.

Kind of the mirror image of Ang's squad, except that where everyone thinks Ang's squad will be "not all that good," everyone thinks these guys will be "not quite good enough." (Teddy)

Tier Two: The Sidney's Candy Division

5. The Spam Avengers (60 pts, 3 first place votes)

My pick to win it all, as well as a computer pick and another human's pick. By contrast, one owner predicts him to finish him in 8th, and two others predict him for next-to-last. That mathematically translates to fifth place, but pins this as a boom-or-bust team. (El Angelo)

...and here's the other lightning rod. I feel better about my deeply hedged season preview of this team now that I see that nobody else knows what to make of them either. (Teddy)

4. Gowanus Superfunders (61 pts)

My esteemed colleague wrote me today to say that he needs Lawrence Jones to perform to him until Carlos Beltran returns. My response: planning for a Met to be healthy is planning to fail. (El Angelo)

.

I'd like to thank everyone (well, almost everyone) for nominating me for this season's El Angelo Memorial All-In But Out of the Money Award. I got three 4th place votes, and two 5ths. Of course, one guy did pick me to finish 11th. I'm not sure which would be worse. (Teddy)

Tier One: The Eskendereya Division

3. The Revenge Society (70 pts, 1 first place vote)

Was 2009 a fluke result? (El Angelo)

.

There's still work to be done on the roster, but I understand the vote of confidence in the owner. (Teddy)

2. Le Dupont Torkies (80 pts, 1 first place vote)

What I find interesting: all but one of the ballots picked this team to come in the top 3. The one that didn't was a computer-generated result, which put him in 9th place. I do think that someone's Wankdorf BCS Machine is underrating the owner's tendency to put together a winning squad, but if this team does flop, that program will become the fantasy equivalent of Deep Blue. (El Angelo)

Did LDT's owner assault a spreadsheet at some point? Because this is two years in a row that the computers have come in hard against him. Didn't seem to slow him down last year, though. (Teddy)

1. Suck It, Silver (83 pts, 3 first place votes)

All but one of the 8 ballots has this squad finishing in the money, and with good reason: the pitching and hitting are deep and balanced. Injury and regression on the team's residents Blue Jays are factors, but here's your 2010 morning line favorite. (El Angelo)

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SIS is my pick as well, so I can't argue. (Teddy)

Mike Scioscia is a Menace

Mike Scioscia has now not played Mike Napoli--a guy I kept, mind you--in EITHER of the first two games of the season. This despite the fact that he hit TWENTY-FOUR MOTHERF&$#ING home runs last year, and hit six more in spring training.

Scioscia--a good defensive catcher who couldn't hit his way out of a puff pastry--is instead starting Jeff Mathis because of his defense and game calling rapport with the Angels' starters. And that's worked out real well, seeing as how opposing baserunners are 1/1 on SB attempts, and the Angels' starters have given up 8 runs in 11 innings pitched.

Mike, baby, cut the sh%t. Re-consider whether it's a good idea to leave the second-best hitter on your team on the bench, OK? Thanks.

I swear, dealing with these f#$%ing people. I have enough problems managing my fantasy team without fat Mike Scioscia smearing meatball parm all over my lineup card.

[Deep breath]

OK, aura cleansed. But seriously, come on. Jesus.

(h/t to Walk-off Walk for the pic)

Season Preview: Le Dupont Torkies

Death. Taxes. Tucker doing well in fantasy baseball. How well? Let's take a quick review:



2002: All records have been destroyed, but I know this team wasn't horrible.

2003: 4th place, a half point out of the money, and only 5 points from winning. This was even better than it seems because Tucker's crazy-good starting pitching was derailed in September when he hit the innings maximum that nobody knew existed.

2004: Won, with 106 points. The maximum, for those keeping score, is 120.

2005: 3rd place, behind two insanely stacked teams run by Scot and Teddy.

2006: Won.

2007: 2nd place, courtesy of a crazy-good season by It's Enrico Palazzo.

2008: Won, with 99.5 points. Side note: Scot somehow had 92.5 points this year and finished in third.

2009: Won, and again cracked the 100-point barrier.

To summarize, that's zero finishes out of the money since 2004, and barring the rules biting him (and everyone else) in the ass, it would be 7 straight money finishes. So it's a fait accompli that Tucker's in the top 3 again, right?

Infield

Phillie stalwart Chase Utley has been traded off to the Commish, which is akin to being banished to Siberia or the Kansas City Royals. In his place is Ben Zobrist, who not coincidentally was on 60% of winning fantasy rosters last year. The rest of the infield is the definition of a mixed bag. Carlos Pena is a great contract-year play, Russell Martin is either a bounceback candidate or a total flop waiting to happen, Stephen Drew's still One Year Away (or is he?) and Mark DeRosa went to Penn. An okay, not great unit.

Outfield

Adam Dunn and Jacoby Ellsbury perform roughly the same function that Holliday and Span did for the commish by covering all categories fairly well. Rounding out these slots are the wildly underrated Shane Victorino, who produces a little in all categories, and last year's Jason Heyward, Colby Rasmus. The team's going to need a breakout from Rasmus or Juan Pierre to not kill them in OBP and power to stay in the top half of the offensive categories.

Starting Pitching

One of the youngest and most upside-laden staffs in the league. Adam Wainwright's already a top-1o starter, Tommy Hanson may well join him by year's end, and Brett Anderson is a potential stud. Those three alone would make this one of the most potent staffs in the league, but they've also got hanging around the underrated Jeff Niemann, a My Guy in Brandon Morrow, solid citizen JA Happ, and intriguing wildcard Chris Volstad. Personally, I like this staff the most of anyone's in the league.

Relief Pitching

With four closers squarely in control of their jobs (Franklin, Soria, Fuentes, Hoffman), they're well on their way to 150 saves. What's also nice is these guys will keep the team ERA and WHIP in check, a good thing when you have young starters.

Outlook

For the first time in recent memory, this team isn't guaranteed 45+ points in hitting, which on paper makes it vulnerable. But I'm less sure that's the case. The pitching should be dominating. They're a top-3 squad in steals. They're going to have a high OBP. They'll score runs. That just leaves the power categories, which they can trade for. Do you want to bet against a repeat? Didn't think so.

Season Preview: The Little Green One, Take Two

After some protests, we're yielding to our commissioner's wishes and providing him with an actual preview of his team. For a list of the guys on his actual roster, take a peek at our first preview/dead pool. Here, we'll be brief and just talk about what the players should produce.

Infield

Tex, Utley and Longoria isn't just the best infield trio in the league, it's probably the best trio of players anyone has in the league. Not shockingly, there's a precipitious drop off after that. Some may see Geo Soto as having potential to jump into the McCann/VMart/Mauer rank of catchers; to me, he seems more likely to reside in the large group of 2nd tier catchers with Doumit, Napoli, Martin, Posada, etc. This isn't a bad thing, but it does mean he's an "asset" with an lowercase a. Elvis Andrus is a defensive stud only. And the bench of Ortiz, Conor Jackson and Alex Gordon is laden with disappointment. Great start, but no depth.

Outfield

The quicker the Constipated Kermits realize that Manny Ramirez is the team's worst outfielder, the better for this team, because this is a sneaky good set of players. Matt Holliday needs no introduction and produces everything but steals. Which is fine because Denard Span and Brett Gardner should steal 75+ bases, score a boatload of runs and do nothing else. If the team loses, it won't be because of the outfield.

Starting Pitching

No aces, but a lot of deuces, which as we all know, is how this owner rolls. Shields, Lackey, Buehrle and Harang are all decent enough guys that should keep the team competitive in wins and K's while not hurting in ERA and WHIP. Ian Kennedy is also here, presumably because Andy thinks former USC basketball star Allison Jaskowiak (right) is attractive.

Relief Pitching

Mariano and a lot of crossed fingers. I get wanting Bobby Jenks on your roster, but suspect he won't be closing by June. Matt Guerrier is a dice roll. Every other reliever is either not actually relieving or not actually any good.

Outlook

For a team that finished in DAFL last year, this is a surprisingly solid squad. That said, the holes up the middle and at relief are large enough that this looks like a middle of the pack team. What makes this squad interesting, however, is that it holds a pair of ginormous trade chips in Utley and Texieria should they fall out of contention. Those two could yield some good players/picks for 2011, making this a clear team to watch for next year.