Three Names Aren't Enough

Wily Mo Pena is rapidly turning into one of my favorite Red Sox players. He appears to have been created in a laboratory somewhere in the Dominican Republic by scientists who had no ethical qualms about taking a four year-old and pumping him full of Martian DNA, veterinary supplements, and arroz con pollo.

Wily Mo won last night's game against Baltimore by hitting a towering grand slam that probably triggered alarms at NORAD. His demeanor during the resultant trip around the bases resembled that of a fat kid in elementary school who just whaled a home run in kickball. The entertainment value of the whole 30 seconds or so was off the charts. I almost wore out both my TiVo clicker and my fiancee's patience re-watching it.

That's why we here at the GRBG have decided that even the three names bestowed on Wily Mo Pena by his parents are insufficient to fully describe his awesomeness. A nickname of some sort is in order. We'll put forward a couple of possibilities that are floating around out there. Vote early and often on your favorite, and I'll start campaigning for it to be used by the gang at SoSH (who, incidentally, came up with my favorite nickname ever, re-christening Mark Bellhorn "Bartleby" for his habit of "prefering not to" swing at nearly every pitch that came his way). Feel free to suggest others as well. Onwards.

"Cerrano"

This one is probably the most obvious. Like Pedro Cerrano, the slugger from Major League, Wily Mo very much hit straight ball, but his bat is scared of curve ball. At press time there was no word whether Wily Mo's dinger last night was prefaced by a formal rejection of his ancestors' voodoo god, but logic almost demands that such a rejection in fact took place.

Pros: Kind of looks like Cerrano; nickname would pay proper homage to what many consider to be the best Charlie Sheen/Corbin Bernson movie ever made.

Cons: Could lead Wily Mo into a second career as a fictional President of the United States. While I don't deny the entertainment value inherent in that, it would probably distract Wily Mo from his slugging.

"Super Genius"

I've seen this one floated in a couple of different places. The hook is the Wily/Wile E. pun, so you see where they're coming from. Also, as noted above, Wily Mo's emotional age appears to have been stunted at around 8 or so, probably as a side effect of the Dominican scientific communities actions as described above, so the Looney Tune seems appropriate.

Pros: Wile E. Coyote is awesome. When Ang and I take over the world and the GRBG is transformed into our version of Pravda, we will immediately publish a strip showing Wile E. catching, cooking, consuming, and excreting that hot-dogging roadrunner. Beep beep that.

Cons: In the current version of reality, Wile E. is kind of a loser. Wily Mo shouldn't be saddled with negative karma like that. Also, it seems kind of mean to assign the "Super Genius" label to Wily Mo, because he might think we seriously believe his IQ is above 180--there doesn't appear to be a real deep understanding of irony there. "Super Genius" might work better on a player who is dumb, but knows it, and is therefore in on the joke. Jon Papelbon, we are looking in your direction.

"Di-di Mao Pena"

This is what I've taken to screaming at the TV when Wily Mo does something good. It comes from the russian roulette scene in The Deer Hunter, where Christopher Walken and Robert De Niro exchange the tick-iest line deliveries in in the history of the Western cinema. Facing Wily Mo is a pitcher's equivalent of russian roulette: the majority of the time you'll win by striking him out, but the occasional losses tend to be painful.

Pros: "Di-di Mao Pena" retains the wonderful cadence of Wily Mo's given name. Phrase used in an episode of The Simpsons, which is always good for bonus points. Fun to yell "di-di mao!" at the screen when Wily Mo comes to the plate.

Cons: Well, shit, it comes from a russian roulette scene in a movie about the Vietnam War. Not exactly the feel-good cultural reference of the year. Reference is probably dated at this point.

Stupid Announcing, Part Deux

Gary Cohen, who I normally love, on John Maine entering the 8th inning of the Mets-Rockies tilt:

"And with that pitch, John Maine becomes the first Met pitcher to throw a pitch in the eighth inning!"

Clearly, at Shea Stadium they only play by high school rules, in which case I'm glad I traded Billy Wagner when I did. Needless to say, Keith Hernandez was too busy applying hair dye and picking his nose to notice the error.

This is Embarassing

The number of ways in which Morgan & Miller are butchering Dice-K's name and baseball expressions in Japanese hit double digits during the national anthem. Also, Jon Miller is convinced that pretty much everything that comes out of Dice-K's hand is a gyroball, including the rosin bag. Pinheads.

Transaction Analysis: National Garlic Day Edition

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What The F*&%?

The Phillies have apparently decided to move Brett Myers, the guy who has been their best starting pitcher for the past two seasons, into the bullpen. Myers has struggled this year (as I know all too well, since he's on my team), and he is undoubtedly a shitheel of the worst order. However, this is a panic move driven by the Phillies' lousy start, and can be best summarized as some ridiculous bullshit.

As a poster at SoSH with the handle of "SoxScout" pointed out, Myers' xFIP so far this year is all of 3.80. (xFIP is a stat designed to show a pitcher's "true" ERA, once the effects of park, league, luck on balls in play, and defense are all accounted for.) That compares nicely with Myers' full year xFIPs from 2005 (3.49) and 2006 (3.89).

The Phillies rotation is made up of a bunch of guys who aspire to be league-average innings munchers (Freddy Garcia, Adam Eaton, Jamie Moyer, and now Jon Lieber), one guy who has the potential to be great (Cole Hamels), and one guy that has proven he can be an All-Star level starter (Myers). They have chosen to put the All-Star in the bullpen where he will apparently set up for Tom Gordon. The best-case scenario remaining here is that the team uses him as a Bill James-style fireman. but given Philly's bullpen woes over the years, it's tough to be too optimistic that they'll figure that out.

The fantasy lesson from all this is simple: we are betting on events beyond our control, and there's more luck involved than we sometimes like to admit. Injuries or front office shenanigans can mess with any roster. The best you can do is to try to build in some depth. And make sure there's plenty of beer in the fridge.

An Act of Felix

It's time to muster the terrible might of the Interwebs to right a baseball wrong. I submit that despite their loss at the hands of Felix Hernandez last week, the Red Sox should be credited with a sweep of their recent homestand. To do anything less would be to thwart the awesome power of Almighty Jeebus. Stay with me, here.

Hernandez's one-hit demolition of the Sox looks more and more impressive now that we have a little bit of distance on it. In their four wins over the course of a recent five-game homestand against the Seatttle Mariners and the Aztlan Angels, the Red Sox scored 14, 10, 8, and 7 runs. But in the game against Hernandez, they barely got the ball out of the infield. Here's what I wrote about Felix before this season started:

I don’t think anyone expected an ERA+ of 96 out of Felix last year. That led to a lot of hand-wringing last year about why Felix underperformed expectations. It seems like the answer seems a combination of bad luck, bad pitch selection, and an increase in FB rate that led to an unhealthy HR rate early in the season.

Felix’s bad luck is shown most clearly by the gap between his ERA and his xFIP. Felix’s xFIP was 3.56, second in the AL behind only Johan Santana. Given that the M’s play in a pitchers’ park and have a pretty good defensive club, that nearly full-run gap between results and expected results is really surprising.

Felix reported to camp this year between 20 and 30 pounds lighter, depending on who you believe, so it looks as though he’s determined to do what he can to keep himself healthy. There’s no reason he shouldn’t be a top 5 starter in the league this year.

So, at this point it's pretty clear that he was just sandbagging last year, doing the baseball version of wandering in the desert. This year, given that his ERA so far is 0.00, he has apparently chosen to assert his infallibitity. While it's been a while since I went to CCD, I'm 98% sure that infallibility is the exclusive domain of God. Thus, Felix clearly is seated as the right arm of the Father, and is himself a god. (A god. Not the God).

That's why I'm decreeing that the Sox' loss to Seattle wasn't really a loss at all, but rather an Act of God accomplished through His only begotten right arm, Felix Hernandez. The Red Sox should not be held accountable for bowing to the will of the Almighty. Hell, they should be rewarded for that kind of thing. Therefore, major league baseball should immediately declare the Sox the winner of the game, giving them a clean sweep for the homestand. I assume that Felix and the Mariners care not for these Earthly concerns, so that shouldn't be a problem. This seems like a win-win to me: the Sox get an actual win, and Felix gets the pub he deserves for being a divine being. Let's get started on this, people.

.

P.S.: Bonus points to whoever can explain to me why the above Jesus jersey has a number 7 on the back. I could see 12. I could see 3. I could even see a little sideways 8/infinity sign. But I'm stumped by 7. Theories?

H2H Versus Roto, Continued

I started to do this as a comment to Angelo's post, but I think there's enough here to warrant another full post on the subject.

My starting point is that (as I understand it) H2H differs most from roto in that margin of defeat in a category doesn't matter in H2H. You get 1 point for winning a category, and 0 for losing, so all you're trying to do is win 3 of 5 pitching and 3 of 5 hitting categories per week. Contrast that with the spread of possible outcomes in roto, where you get points based on where you stand against all other teams in the league over the course of the season, not just one team per week. In roto, if you focus too narrowly on a few categories, you tend to fall way behind in the others and only get 1-2 of the 10-12 points available in those categories. The binary nature of H2H scoring makes punting a category or two a much more viable option, since your downside is so much smaller.

This is all by way of a long intro to my thesis that starting pitching might not be the way to go in H2H. You'd be better off with a team of made up largely of good closers and middle relievers, dominating ERA, WHIP, and SV, and hoping to vulture enough W's to steal that category. If you lose K's by 15, who cares? It's just 1 point. But you'll maximize your chances to "win" the pitching side every week by taking those three other categories.

Pitching is of course wildly variable week-to-week, so Angelo might just be running in bad luck. But I think the ability to game the two rate stats while nailing down SV makes relievers proportionally more valuable. Thoughts (other than that we're probably overthinking this)?

Next post will be funny. Honest.

Head-to-Head versus Rotisserie

I do not pride myself on being a great fantasy player, or even a very good one. I would, however, like to think that I'm halfway decent. I can "scout" talent, as it is. I read a fair amount of baseball material, and have a fair eye for who's on the improve and decline, and can sniff out sleepers fairly well. Am I as gifted as some of the owners in this league? Nah. But I'm not the worst at it either, as evidenced by a few decent showings in this league.

Which brings me to League #2 that I'm in, which is head-to-head. Let's ignore the fact that I think head-to-head is an abomination in baseball, as it's wildly unpredictable week to week with pitching starts, rate stats getting thrown out of whack, and diminishes the value of an injury prone yet good player (eg, Barry Bonds). And the playoffs are asinine, as what teams do with their players in September is wholly unrelated to the rest of the year, yet this is when you determine who gets all the marbles. Yeah, fantasy football has this problem to, but to a much lesser degree, and it's mostly obviated by knocking Week 17 out of the equation.

What I don't get is why my teams in H2H leagues perpetually blow, despite me having roughly the same amount of aptitude in drafting. I'll accept that I can't do well every year; injuries and bad luck make that an impossibility. But I'm now on Year Three of thinking I drafted a good team, and seeing my squad in next-to-last place. Ok, it's only after two weeks...but I'm still befuddled as to what the fungus happened here.

So I open the floor: what the hell am I missing in H2H? Is there some strategy difference between it and rotisserie? Am I dumb for valuing starters and power hitters and kids? Or am I just unlucky three times in a row? Is there a fundamental drafting difference I should know about? Because man, it sucks to be awful every time and not understand why.

Transaction Analysis: Friday the Thirteenth Edition

If the first TA was difficult because the early transactions brought out the best in teams, this one should be a piece of cake. There are some truly hideous players to follow. (ElAngelo)

Yep, this is the time of year when for some reason the crappy players on the waiver wire start looking better than the crappy players already on your roster. The grass is always greener over the septic tank. (Teddy)

bobcat goldthwaits

• Signed Ty Wigginton, IF, Tampa Bay; Released Bobby Crosby, SS, Oakland [4/7]
  
• Signed Jamey Carroll, MI, Colorado; Released Braden Looper, SP/RP, St. Louis; wrongly fooled around with Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Colorado [4/8-4/9]

If patriotism is the last refuge of a scoundrel, then Ty Wigginton is the last refuge of a fantasy cellar dweller. (Granted, I'm in last, but bear with me here.) I mean....Super Ty? He had a nice half a year in '06 before breaking in half, and now he's got to compete with the uber-fun logjam of outfielders in Tampa Bay, plus the BJ Upton Experience, plus the Japanese guy....I mean, I can't see him getting any real playing time down the stretch. And in terms of trade value, he's the next Craig Wilson. Blah. Actually, it's more an indictment as to how much Bobby Crosby's stock has fallen that he was dumped for Ty's Ass. Didn't our humble commish pick him in like the 2nd round last year? (ElAngelo)

Ty Wigginton is English for Antonio Graffanino; see the last TA for my thoughts on those kind of players. No sure what the upside is on Joe Barry Carroll, either. If anything I would have held on to Looper to see if he manages to turn into a useful starter, though I don't have the burden of two decades of Mets fannery weighing down on me as I say that.

Ed Rooney's Office

• Signed Brandon Morrow, RP, Seattle; Released Chris Reitsma, RP, Seattle [4/7]

I confess to having no clue who the fuck Brandon Morrow is, unless he's Edward's grandson. Given that co-counsel here is the learned scribe on All Things Mariners for SOSH, I'll turn the floor over to him for something in the way of explanation, although I note that he really can't be any worse than the Ghost of Chris Reitsma. Teddy? (ElAngelo)

Morrow was the team's first-round pick last year. They took him as a starter out of Cal, but he threw the ball great in ST this season and made the big league roster as a reliever. Mike Hargrove appears to have a mild man-chubby for Morrow, so if the inevitable JJ Putz breakdown comes mid-year, Morrow might have established himself as the next in line. Not that that's such an achievement considering the other options were Reitsma and the now-TJ'd Arthur Rhodes. (Teddy)

Evil Empire

• Signed Chad Gaudin, RP, Oakland; Released Jarrod Washburn, SP, Seattle [4/12]

The loud wind never reached the ship/Yet now the ship moved on!
Beneath the lightning and the Moon/The dead men gave a groan.
They groaned, they stirred, they all uprose/Nor spake, nor moved their eyes;
It had been strange, even in a dream,/To have seen those dead men rise. (ElAngelo)

There once was a pitcher named Jarrod
The M's made him richer than Herod
But once on the grass
He sucked him some ass
The team realized that they had errored. (Teddy)

Hand Bananas

• Signed Henry Owens, RP, Florida; Lyle Overbite, 1B, Toronto; and Jon Lester, SP, Boston; Released Mike Stanton, RP, Cincy [4/9]

Something of a mixed bag here; I applaud the decision to cut bait with Mike Stanton, as he and the entire Reds bullpen are definitionally going nowhere fast. Lester's a solid play as a pitcher who could improve, and Owens is not the dumbest idea I've heard in a try for vulture saves. But Lyle Overbite? He's Mark Grace minus the jackassity. What's interesting is that he's scarily a viable replacement-level 1B, showing the shallowness of that talent pool versus 3B or SS. (ElAngelo)

The Jon Lester move is a surprisingly long-focus one for a team that' s in contention. Lester won't be back with the big club until June at the earliest, with the team committed to bringing him along slowly after that whole pesky Lymphoma thing last season. That said, if Senor Banana can afford to burn a roster slot on him for the next couple of months, he could pay dividends after the ASB. (Teddy)

It's Enrico Palazzo

• Signed Livan Hernandez, SP, Arizona [4/7]
• Released Livan Livan [4/8]

Well that was fast, boring and sucky. There was also some inappropriate touching of Jason Hirsch here, which was quickly rectified once Hirsh pitched lights out on Wednesday. Man, how shitty was that Jason Jennings trade for the Astros? (ElAngelo)

Apparently IEP just wanted to get Livan some more service time towards his fantasy pension. It's a nice gesture, I guess. (Teddy)

Le Dupont Torkies

• Signed Mike Jacobs, 1B, Florida; Released Craig Hansen, RP, Boston/Pawtucket [4/7]
  
• Claimed Braden Looper SP/RP, St. Louis off waivers; Released Ryan Shealy, 1B, Kansas City [4/11]
  

What look like two moronic and disparate transactions actually make a lot of sense when you cross-multiply the players. Swapping out Looper for Hansen's an upgrade simply because Looper's, well, in the majors. The Jacobs/Shealy differential is something like picking out different types of mead; they're all similar, yet different, and none are going to be satisfactory. (ElAngelo)

The perhaps unsurprising lesson here is that the Big East isn't a fertile source of baseball talent. I think the devastating Mo Vaughn/John Valentin-era Seton Hall club was the last Big East team to contribute meaningful players to the bigs. If you'll note, that's now long enough ago that Valentin is a minor league hitting instructor and Big Mo (at right with Mass. furniture legends Bernie & Phyl) is the Thursday night bouncer at the Foxy Lady in Providence. Jacobs is a good player in a bad park; Shealy is a decent player in a good park. So that swap comes down to who happens to get hot over the next month. (Teddy)

M**e

• Signed Gary Matthews, Jr. Steroid Abuser, Anaheim; Released Fernando Rodney Fernando, RP, Detroit [4/8]
  

Jeezus, that was pretty quick to sour on Rodney, and on top of that, for a guy who put up a career year aided by steroids that he's now about 3 steps from indictment from? Hell, why not just pick up Jeremy Giambi instead and call it a team? (ElAngelo)

I've just heard from the GRBG's legal counsel, who pointed out to me the potential liability inherentin calling Gary Matthews, Jr. a steroid abuser. As always, counsel is correct. We apologize to Mr. Matthews for any implication that he used steroids at any time during his career. He in fact used Human Growth Hormone with a chaser of bovine stem cells. The GRBG will appoint an ombudsman to ensure that this sort of thing doesn't occur again in the future. (Teddy)

Nigerian Gentlemen

• Signed Joakim Soria, RP, Kansas City and Humberto Sanchez, RP, New York (AL); Released Jim Edmonds, OF, St. Louis and Aubrey Huff, 1B/3B/OF, Baltimore [4/11]

Picking up a fairly meaningless middle-reliever that's on the DL and a dice-roll in the Not-Dotel Sweeptstakes as your additions should draw ire and scorn from me, but in fairness, they shed some pretty high medical bills in the process here, and on top of that, both Jim Edmonds & Aubrey Huff are done in terms of useful fantasy production. I'm in a league that requires you to start 14 hitters, and neither guy is taken there, for crying out loud. (ElAngelo)

Maybe I'm just nostalgic, but I still think Edmonds has some value left. Of course at his age he's always one diving catch away from disaster, so the move to dump him is probably still the correct one. Huff is soon to be engaged in a playing-time death match against Kevin Millar and Jay Payton, which tells you a lot right there. Joakim Noah is a risky pickup, but I guess Okoye Nation sees some Chris Young-style upside there. Still, though, if you're going to grab a Gator, I would have gone with Arnold Horshack instead. (Teddy)

President Skroob

• Signed Felix Pie, OF, Chicago (NL) [4/11]
  

Suffice to say I'm banking on the Matt Murton/Jacque Jones experience ending soon. (ElAngelo)

Since I can't really quibble with the move, I'll instead ask whether Yahoo!'s spelling of this guy's name (with accent marks over each 'e') is correct. This information is critical so that we can decide whether to make pie jokes or paella jokes about him in the future. All input gratefully accepted. (Teddy)

The Sex Cannons

• Signed Reed Johnson, OF, Toronto; Released Orlando Cabrera, SS, Anaheim [4/11]
• Claimed John Danks, SP, Chicago (AL) off waivers; Released John Patterson, SP, Washington [4/12]

It took the entire TA, but we finally found a pickup that I like, as John Danks is a great flyer and a potentially excellent pitcher. Sure, the remaining portions of the DVD trio have looked like shit, but I'm bullish on his chances to be a big factor in the ChiSox rotation this year, especially as the greybeards up front start to have their arms fall off from overuse. I'm a bit less sold on the Reed Johnson Story, and think he's probably just fodder for the waiver wire in the outfield, but still, nice snag. See? I love ending these things on a happy note. (ElAngelo)

Agreed on the Danks move. Jesus, what a fluffy ending. May as well make it official:

The GRBG Interview: Milton Bradley

Welcome to the first in an occasional series of in-depth interviews with fantasy baseball newsmakers. Our first subject is Milton Bradley, who currently plies his professional trade with the Oakland A's, and his fantasy trade with second-division club Ed Rooney's Office (which is managed by yours truly).

If you'll recall, we promised this interview back a few weeks ago. At this point we have to admit that promise came before we had really locked down this interview with Mr. Bradley's people. But, based on Mr. Bradley's famous easy rapport with the media and the GRBG's burgeoning reputation as a world center of knowledge on Torkies and thoroughbred racing, we assumed that the details would pretty much work themselves out.

Turns out, not so much.

For some reason Mr. Bradley couldn't make time for the Internet's foremost fantasy baseball, show dog, horse racing, and Robert Goulet site. Despite that setback, we here at the GRBG are determined to carry on our proud historical tradition (the GRBG was originally published in 1766 under the title "Howe to Best Triumphe in Your Fantastical Butter-Churning League") by going ahead and asking Mr. Bradley questions to which he has already given answers elsewhere. Links will of course be provided.

Gowanus Rotisserie Baseball Gazette: Mr. Bradley, thanks for taking the time to speak with us today. How has the young season been treating you to date?

Milton Bradley: "I couldn't be happier. I'm playing major league baseball and having fun." (cbc.ca)

GRBG: Do you have any sort of overarching philosophical approach to your game?

MB: "There is a quote from Mya [sic] Angelou and I don't know it exactly, but it goes something like this: 'Do things so well that people can't take their eyes off you. All tangible rewards will come as a result.'" (cleveland.com)

GRBG: Moving. Technically, though, it's "Maya" Angelou, not "Mya". Mya has a better ass, however.

Anyhow, while you have been an effective fantasy weapon for most of the past three seasons, you've been dogged by accusations that you don't hustle enough for your real life team. Obviously, we here at the GRBG don't care about that sort of thing unless and until "Grittiness" is recognized as a valid fantasy category. But what's your reaction to the accusations that you dog it on the field?

MB: "I notice how all the stories that have been written make it out like there was some dramatic scene and that I did something wrong. Bottom line is I was bent on being healthy when [the season] rolled around. And I wasn't going to jeopardize my health for a spring training pop up and dissappoint [sic] the fans by missing playing time during the regular season again." (cleveland.com)

GRBG: Eminently reasonable. More seriously, though, you've faced a number of team- or league-mandated suspensions over the years, which is something that cuts into your fantasy value as well as your value to the A's. Why do you think this pattern of suspensions has developed?

MB: "[S]ome stuff isn't my fault, but because it's me and I messed up before, it's always my fault. When I threw that bottle out there, that was my fault. But everything after that, that wasn't my fault. People think they have to deal with me differently. I've never put a hand on anybody. You'd swear I beat the world up. Sure, I go off verbally at times, but then I'm done with it." (Baseball Prospectus)

GRBG: Well, sure. Heck, I called my co-author's team an unmitigated disaster in the season previews, and nobody suspended me for that. But the thing is that there have been a few occasions where things are alleged to have gone beyond mere words--like for example the three times the police were called to your house to respond to alleged domestic violence.

MB: "Some people want to be bigger than they are. You have no credentials, you have no history of anything, how are you going to tell someone else what he needs to be doing? I can't respect somebody that has nothing to go on." (cleveland.com)

GRBG: Well, as I mentioned above, we do in fact have an august history here at the GRBG. In fact, I'll go so far as to say that it would have been virtually impossible to win a fantasy butter-churning league back in the day without having at least a passing familiarity with the advice provided by our forerunner publication. We pretty much invented the Pronated Reverse Churn. However, I'll admit that we have less experience dealing with baseball generally, and you specifically.

MB: "If you don't know me and I don't know you, don't approach me, and I won't approach you. Don't insult me, and I won't insult you, because you don't know what I will or won't do." (espn.com)

GRBG: Hey, look, fine, whatever. Just put up a 20/20 this year and you can kill and eat Romanian orphans as far as I'm concerned. Here, as a goodwill gesture, we'll let you have the last word. How would you like to be remembered once you've hung up your spikes for the last time?

MB: "I want people to say Milton Bradley was a pretty good ballplayer and a pretty good person. Anybody who is going to stand between me getting there, then they need to be eliminated." (Trapped in LA)

GRBG: I either can't or shouldn't argue with that. Mr. Bradley, thanks for your time. Check back frequently for additional interviews, which I am strongly considering doing by long-distance phone in the future.

With Apologies for the Dated Reference: Goulet!

The Red Sox had their home opener today, and threw shit down, hepcat-style:

The Red Sox trotted out the usual Opening Day fare, hanging bunting from the upper decks and bringing Harry Connick Jr. to sing 'America the Beautiful.' They also honored the 1967 'Impossible Dream' team that won the AL pennant, bringing them out from behind a giant U.S. flag covering the Green Monster as Robert Goulet sang 'The Impossible Dream.' espn.com

Goulet is, perhaps unsurprisingly, a Masshole, so the above isn't quite as random as you'd think. Still, though. Apparently, the Sox' additional attempts to have Andy Williams serenade Johnny Pesky with a special rendition of "Take Me Out To The Ballgame" were thwarted when team researchers were unable to establish whether either of the people involved were still living.

Derby Update

Well, one more round of preps in the bag, with two biggies remaining on Saturday (Blue Grass & Arkansas Derby) and some other scattered randomness around (Lexington, etc.). Rather than do a conventional top-something list, here's a look where horses stand in preparation for the Derby, by arbitrary category.

Let's get this show on the road!

Scat Daddy: Winner of the Florida Derby & Fountain of Youth, he's Todd Pletcher's top shooter, and will try to emulate Barbaro by going into the Derby off a 5-week hiatus. Biggest concerns are (a) that he hasn't really run that fast and hasn't hit a triple-digit Beyer yet, and (b) is by Johannesburg, who nobody is sure is going to sire a 10-furlong horse. Then again, the latter concern is somewhat offset by the fact we've seen Northern Afleet, Distorted Humor and Elusive Quality sire winners of Triple Crown races in the past 4 years. At this point, he looks like the potential Derby favorite (pending the Blue Grass), but with some holes.

Nobiz Like Shobiz: Owns a pair of wins at 9 furlongs, including Saturday's Wood Memorial. Biggest question isn't breeding, it's maturity, as he's a horse that may not like being surrounded by 150,000 people at Churchill Downs, though he looked very professional in the Wood. He should get a much better trip in the Derby behind some actual pace, something he didn't see in the Wood.

Notional: Second to Scat Daddy in the Florida Derby, this horse may get lost in the shuffle come May 5th, despite having a nice pedigree, solid connections, and a good win in the Louisiana Derby. There's some head scratching about his failure to really finish strongly in Florida, but if he's 15-1 in the Derby, you're crazy to not use him a little.

Any Given Saturday: Was my top Derby contender going into the Wood, where he faded to an uninspiring 3rd behind Nobiz and Sightseeing (below) at 3-2. It's not the fact he lost that's troubling, it's the fact that he faded in his first venture past 1 1/16 miles. He's by Distorted Humor, who did sire 2003 winner Funny Cide, but is a miler at heart. Have to wonder if we've already seen how far he can go.

Tiago: Little brother of Giacomo, the execrable 2005 Derby winner, with the same connections, he just won the Santa Anita Derby at 30-1, the first race in which he crossed the finish line in front. This late runner has clunk-up-for-a-share written all over him. Can't see him winning on May 5th though.

Cowtown Cat: Winner of the Illinois Derby, he's the third Todd Pletcher horse in this category. (Don't worry, there are more to come.) What's most notable is the fact his name is god-awful, despite him costing well over a million smackeroos at auction. If you think enough of a horse to pay a small fortune for him, can't you give him a real name?

One more to go, is it enough?

Street Sense: The Derby favorite if he wins the Blue Grass, he's trying to become the first BC Juvenile winner to win the Run for the Roses. He's also trying to become the first horse since Sunny's Halo (1983) to win the Derby with only two starts this year. That didn't work for Point Given; is it gonna work here? On the plus side, trainer Carl Nafzger screamed "I love you!" to Frances Genter (left) when they won the 1990 Derby with Unbridled, so clearly he knows how to kiss some old ass.

Great Hunter: He's also trying to do it off two starts, but in his defense, he ran 7 times last year, which is a ton this day in age. Looked great in winning the Lewis (which Tiago ran a well-beaten 7th in), have to think he's a top contender.

This never works, but what the hell...

Circular Quay: You could argue this is Pletcher's best horse, as with the exception of a time a horse fell in front of him, he's never run a clunker. Still, Todd's gone a bit off the reservation here by training him up to the Derby off an 8-week layoff. Tack that on to the fact that he's a stone closer, has only run twice this year (including the aforementioned race where he pulled up because of a spill) AND hasn't run 1 1/8 miles yet, and this goes from good shot to longshot.

Curlin: This guy's overcoming not only the curse of Apollo (last horse to win the Derby without starting as a two-year old, in the fricking Cleveland Administration), the Arkansas Derby (his prep) will he his third start. THIRD! That's insane! This horse is immensely talented, but I'm half hoping he throws in a relative clunker at Oaklawn to preserve him for the spring.

The sleeper

Dominican: A horse that nobody except for the wiseguys is talking about now (ok, I'm aware nobody is talking about horse racing now, but humor me), but may be on Sunday morning. He's immensely talented, showed great promise as a two-year-old finishing third in the Kentucky Jockey Club, and just won the Rushaway stakes race on the comeback trail after injury. His biggest questions are he may not love 1 1/4 miles (El Corredor?) and he may not have the graded stakes earnings to get him in the gate. But if he runs well on Saturday, his bandwagon's gonna be full.

Are we even going?

Hard Spun: He's undefeated when he's not running at Oaklawn, and the good news is the Kentucky Derby isn't at Oaklawn. The bad news is they're considering not running him anyway, and may point for the vaunted Lexington/Preakness double. Wow, that's ambitious.

Sightseeing: He ran 2nd to Nobiz Like Shobiz on Saturday, but has still only one won race, and Shug McGaughey seems inclined to pass on the Derby and point either for the Preakness or a summer campaign. While discretion is the better part of valor, it's worth noting that Jazil had an almost identical race record last year, and ran 4th in the Derby before winning the Belmont. (Of course, he hasn't done jackshit since then, but flags fly forever, or whatever the horse equivalent of a flag is.)

Chelokee: His 3rd in the Florida Derby was tremendous, as he was blocked by traffic in the stretch, costing him a least 2nd. The problem is while Mike Matz of Barbaro fame wants to run him in the Derby, his graded earnings aren't going to be enough if there are 20 horses. Bah.

We're running for third place!

Zanjero: Spanish for clunker. This guy's a great bet to hit the board at 50-1.

Sam P.: Pletcher's fifth-stringer who was blah in Santa Anita. Pass.

Deadly Dealer: Pletcher's sixth-stringer. He can be the next Coin Silver with some luck. Who's Coin Silver? Precisely.

Teufelsberg: Someone's got to set the pace in the Derby. My buddy does a last place pool for the big race, he's a first-round pick.

Officer Rocket: Every year Bob Holthus tries to suck us in with one of these Arkansas horses, and they never EVER do anything. Don't be fooled.


Coming up this Saturday are the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland and Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn. By next week, we'll have a slightly different perspective on the above, but probably not that much different. At this point, to some degree, you are what you are.

Transaction Analysis: Opening Day Edition

The first few days after the start of a new season always bring a flurry of activity, as teams realize who they managed to pick while on their fifth draft-day beer. Lots of good early work so far—honestly, the stupidest name that’s been picked up so far was grabbed by me. While that might cramp my analytic style, I’m willing to bet that Angelo will encounter no such problems. (Teddy)

Of all people, a fricking priest has put me in a horrific mood today, so watch the frick out. Let's get this s**t underway, and happy Holy Thursday, Passover, and all other early spring holidays. (Angelo)

bobcat goldthwaits

Signed: Braden Looper (StL - RP), Mike MacDougal (CWS - RP), Bobby Crosby (Oak - SS)

Waived: Rich Aurilia (SF - 1B,2B,3B,SS)

Any day in which you cut Rich Aurilia is a day worth celebrating. MacDougal is the first of many closer spec plays we’ll see—it’s going to be very difficult to find saves lying around this year the way people are stockpiling setup men. The bloom is pretty far off the Crosby rose, but he’s an OK guy to have around to plug in if there’s an injury. Not a super-exciting set of pickups here. (Teddy)

Well, dumping Aurilia is automatically a good move. But. I. Cannot. Believe. For. The. Life. Of. Me. That a MET FAN picked up Braden Looper. Has Ironhead contracted amnesia to the 2005 season, where Looper blew donkey balls? I do like the McDougal snag though; not for baseball reasons, because he's a marginal setup man, but because this squad has him every year, as a cross between a useful player and a mascot. I wholly applaud continuity in this league, even if it's at the expense of an otherwise viable roster spot. (Angelo)

Ed Rooney’s Office

Signed: Chris Reitsma (Sea - RP), David Riske (KC - RP), Milton Bradley (Oak - OF)

Waived: Brendan Donnelly (Bos - RP), Jonny Gomes (TB - OF)

So much for the Donnelly experiment. I thought I had a pretty good track on who was going to emerge as the Sox’ closer, but the Papelbon move counterfeited my holding pretty quick. David Riske is in line to get some saves for KC while Dotel is banged up, though it’s tough to see him as a long-term option. Milton Bradley is here both because I need some more SLG out of my OF, and to combine with Brett Myers to give my team the ability to beat the hell out of both sides of the gender plate. Reitsma is next in line if JJ Putz's elbow goes farther south. (Teddy)

See, I think taking a reliever as a flyer to be a future closer is a nice move...if the guy's young and can morph into a future stud closer, a la taking a chance on a guy like Putz last year, Jenks the year before that, etc. Reitsma and Riske are basically Guys Who May Finish Games and are old and sucky. I don't really like those picks. I'd much prefer a stab at someone like Jose Capellan or Fausto Caramona, who at least can settle into the role for a few years. There's no chance Reitsma will help this year without injury (and even then, he's only there for fliapability to a contender in July), and he's certainly not keeper material for 2008. So I disapprove. Milton, grab your billy club and beat Teddy. (Angelo)

Evil Empire

Signed: Chris Sampson (Hou - SP,RP), Jarrod Washburn (Sea - SP), Gil Meche (KC - SP), Jason Varitek (Bos - C)

Waived: Chris Sampson (Hou - SP,RP), Tony Graffanino (Mil - 1B,2B,3B,SS)

Much like Aurilia, Tony Graffanino is a guy that looks interesting because of his multi-position eligibility, but really just sucks out loud at almost any spot on the diamond. Those guys tend to be traps, as there will usually be better options on the waiver wire to back up the spots that they could handle in the event of an injury. So there is no real need to keep Tony Graffs around unless you need somebody authentic to run as the Italian Sausage in the Milwaukee sausage races. (Teddy)

The siliness with Sampson aside, Varitek's an ok pickup for a catcher who could be productive if last year wasn't a sign of all things to come. I actually don't mind the Meche signing, who, for all the crying and crucifying that's been done, isn't a half bad pitcher. He won't win any games on a execrable KC team, but he's far from the worst idea I've seen to hold down a back of the fantasy rotation slot. Jarrod Washburn? He might be the worst idea I've seen. In the aforemention karma department, is this the first year Jake didn't draft him?

Hand Banana

Signed: Todd Coffey (Cin - RP), Mike Stanton (Cin - RP), Ken Griffey Jr. (Cin - OF)
Henry Owens (Fla - RP), Lastings Milledge (NYM - OF), Elijah Dukes (TB - OF), Dustin Hermanson (Cin - RP)

Waived: Dustin Hermanson (Cin - RP), Hong-Chih Kuo (LAD - SP,RP), Brad Wilkerson (Tex - OF), Henry Owens (Fla - RP), Brian Wilson (SF - RP)

Periodically, we here at the GRBG feel compelled to point out that owners don’t earn commission on their transactions. Hand Banana managed to complete not one, but TWO round-trip transactions before Opening Day, with both Dustin Hermanson and Henry Owens winning free rides on the carousel. We’re still awaiting official confirmation from the Elias Sports Bureau, but preliminary research indicates that this is a new FBBL record. So, tip of the cap to Senor Banana.

The substance of the moves was more defendable, with Dukes and Milledge showing nice upside. Dukes appears to have nudged aside Jonny Gomes for the 4th OF/DH slot in Tampa, while the Mets are either going to have to play Milledge because of injuries, or trade him to shore up their rotation. I guess Paul Coffey (D – Pit) and Elizabeth Cady Stanton (S – Seneca Falls) are here on the assumption that Stormy Weathers sucks. While that’s true, this assumption overlooks the fact that Stanton and Coffey are no prizes themselves. (Teddy)

That's a lot of Cincinnati relievers, which also belies the fact that the Reds are awful this year. Yeah, I know, I'm the first guy to preach the every-team-gets-40-saves mantra, but sheesh, it looks like they're going to be spread between all the vultures known to mankind. Coupling that with picking up the dessicated remains of Ken Griffey, Jr., and you've got an owner who clearly either loves the Queen City or is a sadist. Unsure which is true. I agree that Dukes & Millidge are nice pickups, but moreso for next year than this one, though I suppose they'll make sufficient trade bait, much like they will for Omar. (Angelo)

It's Enrico Palazzo

Signed: Matt Lindstrom (Fla - RP), Zack Greinke (KC - RP), Mark DeRosa (ChC - 2B,3B,OF)

Waived: Scott Linebrink (SD - RP)

It always warms the cockles of my heart to see somebody pick up Mark DeRosa, my inaugural last-round pick and fellow Oxymoronic Fighting Quaker. That said, DeRosa parlayed three fluke months last year into a new deal with the Cubs, despite the very high likelihood that those three months represented his non-academic peak in life. I like the Zach Grienke pickup as much as you can realistically like the addition of a guy with a diagnosed, though unspecified, mental illness. Greinke better hope he's never traded--if KC drove him mad, New York would cause everything north of his eyebrows to explode. (Teddy)

DeRosa was indeed a Mr. Irrelevant in our first draft, so nice call Teddy. I certainly can't argue with picking up Greinke as a flyer, who looked superb 3 years ago only to have the wheels fall off once BP declared that his collapse rate was 0%. Oops. Someone get Wollner on the horn to have him add to PECOTA an adjustment for mental issues. My only quibble here is casually discarding Linebrink, who I think is gonna get flipped for a position player at some point, and become a closer for his new team (and I'm looking at.....you, Tampa Bay). (Angelo)

Le Dupont Torkies

Signed: Noah Lowry (SF - SP), Justin Duchscherer (Oak - RP), Pat Neshek (Min - RP)

Waived: None

All three guys are young arms with various ratios of success and potential. The Duke is a legitimately great RP in real life; however, the A's use of him as a Bill James-style fireman means that he accumulated neither wins nor saves. That obviously limits his fantasy value. Lowry used to be the Next Big Thing in San Francisco until Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum came on the scene. He's good guy for spot starts at home against some of the weaker teams in the division, though you probably don't want to run him out there in starts in Colorado or Arizona. (Teddy)

These are three guys you want on your real team, not on your fantasy team. Lowry is a fine 4th-starter that eats a shitload of innings and doesn't strike out a pissload either, well in the Giants tradition started by Kirk Roto Reuter earlier this decade. Neshek and Duchsherer are very nice relievers to have around, but taking those guys are really lottery tickets for vulture wins and saves. Sometimes you get lucky, like I did with Jesse Crain a few years ago, when he won 9 games for absolutely no reason, but usually you don't. I actually do tend to think that good middle relievers are useful in a league where you have daily changes, a great lineup and a few front line starters; the problem here is that they're missing the last part of that equation. (Angelo)

Mike

Signed: Mark Mulder (StL - SP), Fernando Rodney (Det - RP)

Waived : None

If you glance down a few posts, you'll see that I have Mulder on my HACKING MASS team this season, which pretty well sums up my feelings about him. Being on the DL might be the best thing that could happen to him. Fernando Rodney is another candidate to step into the closer's role in Detroit once Todd Jones finally gives up the ghost. He actually has more closing experience than Zumaya, so if Detroit is feeling either: (a) traditional, and wants to give the job to a Proven Closer; or (b) sabremeterrific, and want to keep Zumaya as a fireman, then Rodney might have some value. I think what this grab again really shows is how far down the RP food chain we already are this season. (Teddy)

Why haven't we extended the naming tradition that we began with Jorge Julio Jorge to now include Fernando Rodney Fernando? It doesn't roll off your tongue the same way, but it works fairly well. (Angelo)

Nigerian Gentlemen

Signed: Oliver Pérez (NYM - SP), Kenny Lofton (Tex - OF), Moisés Alou (NYM - OF), Jim Edmonds (StL - OF), Jon Lester (Bos - SP), Aubrey Huff (Bal - 3B,OF)

Waived: Jon Lester (Bos - SP), Joel Piñeiro (Bos - SP,RP)

Hmm. So the Sese Sekos added (at least temproarily) two good, if flawed, young arms, presumably in an attempt to compete down the road. They then turned around and added FOUR past-their-prime outfielders, in what looks like a win-now strategy. Obviously, it's a touch early to completely abandon this season (unless you're Angelo, in which case you're already preparing your draft list for 2009), but the mixed signals are odd. (Teddy)

Well, they waived Cancer Boy Lester, so there's really just adding one arm, and that's the volatile Oliver! Perez. I've seen dumber ideas. Like....signing 3 guys who are well fit for a HACKING MASS squad and Jim Edmonds' corpse. Vomit. (Angelo)

President Skroob

Signed: Juan Rivera (LAA - OF), Carl Pavano (NYY - SP), Kip Wells (StL - SP), Joe Crede (CWS - 3B)

Waived: Jon Lieber (Phi - SP), Milton Bradley (Oak - OF)

Boy, if I hadn't made myself vulnerable by picking up Chris Reitsma, I'd be jumping in with both feet on the Carl Pavano move. Put it this way: the 50-ish female office manager at my firm came up to me on Opening Day and said that she'd need to leave early that day because someone would have to be ready to take over for Pavano in the 3rd inning. (Teddy)

C'mon, I'm at the point where I have to take some chances, and Pavano's in the category of not-great-but-sensible gambles: he's on an offensive juggernaut that should allow him to win 12-15 games if he stays healthy, and was pretty good in '04. I'm tilting at windmills a bit, but that's the thought anyway. Kip Wells, by contrast, is solely a Dave Duncan move; he seems like the kind of guy Duncan will straighten out. (Angelo)

The Sex Cannons

Signed: Juan Salas (TB - RP), Gary Matthews Jr. (LAA - OF), Johnny Estrada (Mil - C), Casey Kotchman (LAA - 1B), Cla Meredith (SD - RP), Al Reyes (TB - RP)

Waived: Cla Meredith (SD - RP), Juan Salas (TB - RP), Gary Matthews Jr. (LAA - OF), Melvin Mora (Bal - 3B)

The Rexies continue their years-long effort to sabotage this column by racking up enough transactions to blow up the GRBG mainframe. Leaving aside the THREE round-trip jobs (Senor Banana's record was short-lived), you end up adding an intriguing 1B flyer in Casey Kotchman, and a couple of spare parts in Estrada and Reyes. Kotchman is running out of excuses for his poor performance in the majors. His most recent explanation was last year's case of mononucleosis, which he totally got from making out with Heather-Amber Szyzmanski behind the batting cages after 5th-period Health class. Still, there's a chance he'll break out one of these years, and he'll get every chance on this year's Angels team, which needs all the offense it can find. (Teddy)

Am I crazy for saying I like the Al Reyes move a lot? He's actually a good arm that Tampa may let close and could hang on to. See, these are the relievers that make sense to pick up, not Chris Fricking Reitsma. (Angelo)

The Spam Avengers

Signed: Scott Linebrink (SD - RP), Aaron Heilman (NYM - RP), Ray Durham (SF - 2B)

Waived: None

This team was in pretty good shape to start the season, so it had the luxury of taking good players rather than players who filled needs on the club. Can't really argue with any of these moves. I think, though, that Scott Linebrink is the first recycled, "One Man's Trash Is Another Man's Treasure" snag of the season. That makes Linebrink the leader in the clubhouse for the Corey Lidle Memorial Trophy, (a.k.a. the "Pewter Parachute"), which is awarded annually to the player who appears on the most fantasy rosters over the course of a season. Quite the honor, obviously. (Teddy)

Bringing up the Late Corey Lidle allows me to bring in the photo on the right, of Alec Baldwin bitching at a cop who won't let him back to his apartment while they clean up the crime scene left by Lidle's plane accident. As Gawker said, even in tragedy, Alec Baldwin is an insufferable prick. (Angelo)

Final Round of Derby Preps

We interrupt our scintillating fantasy baseball coverage to bring you, as expected, coverage and thoughts of this week's round of Derby Preps. Last week brought us the Florida Derby, where Scat Daddy replicated his Fountain of Youth win, and will now try to emulate the late Barbaro by winning the Derby off a 5-week layoff. Following him home was Notional, who ran a solid if unspectacular 2nd, and Chelokee, trained by Mike Matz (of Barbaro fame), who may not get into the Derby, as only the 20 horses with the most graded earnings make the cut, and he's only got $100k. Too bad, because some thought he was the best in the FD. Then again, some of us said the same thing about Sunday Break after the 2002 Wood, and he ran like dogshit in the Belmont that year. Anyway, enough about that, let's get to the three major Derby preps this weekend.

Wood Memorial: The best prep of the weekend, pairing Barclay Tagg (of Funny Cide fame) against the Todd Pletcher Juggernaut. Pletcher's loaded enough that he's sending Circular Quay into the Derby off a 8-week hiatus (dumb idea) and instead subbing in Any Given Saturday in this race. Good idea, because while Tagg's Nobiz Like Shobiz is the threat a lot of people think he might be, he's still behind Street Sense, and AGS needs the graded earnings as well. Other horses running range from the intriguing (Summer Doldrums) to the trifecta fodder (Sightseeing) to the hopeless (Flashstorm). As someone who thinks Any Given Saturday is going to get Pletcher off the Triple Crown schneid, I'll go with him in a close victory over NBB.

Illinois Derby: This was never on the "A" list of Derby preps, partially because it used to be held later in the year, and kinda still isn't, but War Emblem's 2002 Illinois-Kentucky Derby Double has made this into something of a real prep. Sweetnorthernsaint emerged from this race last year to be a surprising Derby favorite. Barring another performance like that, we're not gonna see anyone here that you'll be salivating about come May 5th.

Santa Anita Derby: Naysayers can claim Giacomo Forever all they want, but the California horses simply suck this year, especially once Ravel got hurt. So what have we got this year? One would normally look for a Jeff Mullins horse, as he's won this race repeatedly with bombs like Castledale and Buzzard's Bay, but he's sitting it out this year to work on his juice. Well, there's Tiago, who's a half to Giacomo, who's only the worst Derby winner of my lifetime. Sam P. and King of the Roxy both have the Pletcher factor going for them, but the former is unimpressive and the latter is bred to win sprints, so I'll have to pass. hasn't proven himself worthy of competing against the best. Liquidity isn't a Grade I horse. Neither are Level Red and Black Seventeen. I'll take a stab with Bwana Bull, who reminds me fleetingly of Event of the Year, as a NoCal stud who's been beating lesser.

HACKING MASS

If you're a BP person, that's right, it's time for HACKING MASS! For those not familiar with the exercise, BP runs a contest yearly for you to assemble by Easter the worst lineup of a player at every position and two non-Rockies starters. Points aren't just accumulated for sucktitude--you have to play as well. Picking up Kelly Stinnett, in other words, will do you no good.

Last year I managed to be one of about 4 people to pick Josh Towers, who was one of the 3 worst pitchers in the league....and still managed to finish in the bottom 3% thanks to the great picks of Hanley Ramirez, Mark Teahen and Dan Uggla. Pure genius. On that note, here is The Official Gowanus HACKING MASS Team:

C: Brad Ausmus
1B: Ryan Shealy
2B: Luis Castillo
3B: Jose Castillo
SS: Tony Pena, Jr.
LF: Chris Duncan
CF: Juan Pierre
RF: Shawn Green
SP: Kyle Lohse
SP: Carlos Silva

Let's hear from some of the other pinheads with their squads. Worst (best?) team in the league gets beer from the others.

A Terrifying Glimpse Into Ed Rooney's Future

I know it's only Opening Day, but . . .

Adam Dunn + Victor Martinez: 4/7, 2HR, 6RBI

Every Other Starter On My Team: 2/31, 0HR, 1RBI

Eep.

Incest is Best

I'm glad Deadspin already covered this---the hug that Joakim Noah gave his mother for about 40 minutes last night frightened the shit out of me and rose to the Angelina & her brother level of creepiness. Frankly, I think the guy in the goggles/glasses to the right is making the perfect expression of disbelief and disgust. I'm ashamed to have been even remotely rooting for them at any time. And I'm glad the snoozer of a Tourney is over---when does the Masters start?

Insightful Commentary

The erstwhile Joe Morgan just tried to argue that a home run hit by Frank Robinson on Opening Day in 1975 shouldn't count because he was a player-manager. Don't worry, it sounded even dumber live.

Also, the ESPN ticker keeps reporting that Riders of Rohan Davey threw for 8 TDs in an Arena League football game. I confess to having never seen an Arena game, so can someone enlighten me, is it insanely easy to throw for 6 indoors? Davey couldn't sniff time with the Cardinals, and they stunk.

In case you can't tell, the current MLB game stinks, since the Cardinals have utterly failed to show up. Way to defend your title, Elders. I leave you with this.